The Bush Effect

A new NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll has some surprising numbers about the Republican Party, some of which have been described by other commentators as paradoxical. President Bush's approval numbers continue to remain in the low 30s, while 49% view the Republican Party unfavorably. A whopping 43% believe they are worse off than they were four years ago, a truly shocking number when one considers how utterly bleak the state of the nation was four years ago. 76% of voters want the next president to pursue an approach other than that of President Bush, and in a generic match-up, the Democratic nominee beats the Republican nominee in a thirteen point landslide.

Yet when John McCain is paired against Hillary Clinton, he only loses by two points, and when pitted against Obama, he only loses by three. If voters are fed up with the Republican Party and George W. Bush, and if they are eager for a Democrat to take over, why is John McCain's margin so close?

One possible argument, of course, is that McCain is actually the most electable Republican in his party. It may be, as many have suggested, that for all of the problems Republicans faced during their nomination fight, they may have serendipitously nominated their strongest possible candidate. But on closer inspection, these numbers help underscore the potential for a significant collapse in McCain's support come November.

The American people have yet to associate John McCain with George W. Bush. If they thought the two were one in the same, McCain's support would undoubtedly plummet. But John McCain has cultivated a narrative that paints him as a maverick, a politician willing to disagree with the president when required. Combined with the well-documented discomfort the two have felt for each other since their 2000 campaign, McCain has, at least to some extent, a credible rationale for pointing out differences.

Voters have also apparently disassociated McCain from the Republican Party. Despite his otherwise conservative record, McCain has confronted his own party on issues from earmarks to immigration - a reality only further validated by the right's obvious discomfort with their nominee. In fact, the media portrayal of McCain as an anti-Republican has been so universal that 44% of Democrats view him favorably, while 52% of Republicans would have preferred another nominee.

In the interim, that might sound like encouraging news to the McCain campaign. But underneath the numbers, the true weakness of the McCain candidacy comes to light. After all, McCain has yet to experience the financial arm of the Obama campaign in full force, using every opportunity to paint a McCain presidency as nothing more than a third Bush term. Already, Obama previews the campaign to come with his stump speech, arguing that, though Bush will not be on the November ballot, his policies certainly will.

It is also nearly impossible that McCain will spend nine months as the leader of his party without being painted as a serious member. Having done such a poor job of unifying his base during the primary season, McCain is already finding himself fighting a two-front war, forced to advocate pet Republican policies at a volume too loud for the general election. The more he swears to be a genuine Republican, the more the voters will begin to believe him.

The space McCain has placed between himself, his party, and the president will never appear quite as distant as it does today. On the other side of a billion dollar general election, voters will no doubt view him as a conservative Republican, closely aligned with Bush's policies and ideology.

With 76% of the voters hoping for a president who takes a different approach than Bush, that reality should give John McCain some serious pause.

Comments

[BillZBubb]

Poll numbers this early in the game are pretty much meaningless. If you look at the electoral map, McCain is in surprisingly good shape. He'll easily hold most of the Red states against Clinton and Obama--particularly against Obama since the racists lie to the pollsters. Sure the Democratic candidate will paint McCain as McBush with some success, but the Republicans will counter with a barrage of attacks on Clinton or Obama--Fear and Smear. As always it will be effective.

Ohio will be the key again. The economy will be the Democrats key to victory if they know how to play it. Clinton can promise a return to the proven, effective economic policies of the Bill Clinton presidency. That would be a winning move. Obama can promise something new, but unproven, which may or may not win the day.

[Marlyn]

"the Democratic candidate will paint McCain as McBush" ???

Not just the Democrats. McCain himself has embraced GW Bush and his policies.

[Lemeritus]

And we have pictures to prove it!

[CatfishJohn]

...because the corp0rate media will gloss over mccains dottering mental fragility, other shortcomings, his "stay the course" regarding bushco. agenda and promulgate him as their...ah­em..."mode­rate" candidate, just like they favored bush in 2000 and 2004 and continue to minimize his myriad failings and incompetence to this day....the double -standard in favor of the pro-corporate, pro-plutocrat Repubs is by defintion the MSM agenda...d­umb 'em down, amp up the fear, obfuscate the Repub agenda...t­hat is what the corporate media is all about..tur­n this election into a vapid "people magazine" /American Idol contest bereft of substantive deabte...g­etting average joe to vote repub against his own interests, and to favor the interests of the corporate sturcture that owns and dictates the intentioanlly dumbed-down content of the MSM...and this is the primary reason why this race is going to be close...

[RButler]

If Obama's the nominee, the MSM will be pressed on how to fawn over both candidates at the same time. They've always picked a 'good' guy and a 'bad' guy to fit a story line, kinda like professional wrestling.

[desmirl]

If people knew the truth about McCain, his approval ratings would be in negative numbers. To think of this guy as a hero is a mistake. To think of him as honest is a mistake. To think of him as a moral man is a mistake. McCain is avoiding scrutiny because people want a hero, and the idea that he was a POW somehow makes him a hero. But check out the fact that he collaborated with the enemy, giving away sensitive information in exchange for better treatment, and know that we can all appreciate his pain, but can also vote to keep him away from the presidency. Make no mistake. McCain is dangerous.

[JulieSA]

I hope the Dem nominee takes up your practice of telling lies about McCain. That would guarantee a McCain victory.

[peterg76]

McCain isn't Bush. He's worse.

[BillZBubb]

Worse than Bush? Sorry, that's not possible. McCain is not much better than Bush, but not worse.

[Lemeritus]

Worse. Because McCain wants to take the Bush "legacy" and build on it.

[LeftRight]

John McBush, who used to be John McCain is MUCh worse than bush, because he wants to take everything that bush has done, and make it worse!

[Clinton]

Apparently it only takes a few people to scare the hell out of everyone else around here. Then they'll do nearly anything to reestablish an illusion of safety. That's how the Republicans and Republican-lite (DLC, HRC) take and hold power.

It's like a fireman who is also an arsonist.

[RButler]

"It's like a fireman who is also an arsonist" Is that like a black candidate who plays the race card at every opportunity?

[Clinton]

That Obama is black is a happy coincidence. That he is far superior to HRC and McBomb is due to natural talent and integrity. If you are so hung up on his race, too bad for you. If it were the civil war era how happy you'd be, fighting with Scarlet. But it might be better for modern day America if you were gone with the wind.

[LeftRight]

We can but hope!

[dissolvethecorporation]

Not a paradox, people are scared to death. The Democrat's approach should be to assure us that by reaching out to the rest of the world, we can alleviate our fears more effectively than the cowboy mentality.

[wally47]

Who's scared to death? Politicians have been trying to scare me to death for years but it hasn't seemed to work on me.

[luziannagirl]

LeftRight:

Hope, and push for change, and remind all your R-voting friends that if they really want change, they'll stop voting R, or better still, do the Luzianne thang and insist their favorite R leaders switch party affiliation. By far the worst thing abt John McCain is that he is associated with the Republican Party. It's a millstone around his neck, a ball and chain, doggie doo that won't come off his shoe.

Ask your R-voting friends within the 76% who want a big change from Bush, how they expect McCain will put together his administration, should he be elected in '08? Will he appoint all Democrats, Independents & illegal aliens to his cabinet? OF COURSE not! Of necessity, he'll have to appoint the SAME OLD CROWD we have now!!!!

There's more to being President than simply being a likeable, upright person with integrity.

[LeftRight]

I agree, except about the point of John McBush changing his affiliation. He shouldn't try to change it, since he's done too much in the last 4 years to BECOME bush!!

[ProudNeoCon]

The problem is that Democrats are about to nominate the candidate who is so left of the centre that even Republicans who do not like Bush policies would never vote for him/her

[RButler]

I keep waiting for the ultimate 'change' to happen. That would be for the Obama supporters to quit being so ugly and nasty and start posting thoughtful and inspiring comments. More than a change, that would be a miracle.