The Clintonian Uncertainty Principle

As Florida and Michigan edge closer to delegate reselection compromises, the Clinton campaign should see nothing but bad news ahead. With a pledged delegate deficit that even her campaign views as insurmountable, and a superdelegate lead that appears to be narrowing by the day, the primary rationale for Clinton's continued candidacy is uncertainty.

It is uncertainty that has prevented Clinton from being forced from the race by her party. It is uncertainty that fuels the mainstream media's coverage -- the only justification for describing a race that Obama cannot lose as a virtual tie. Why, the Clinton campaign argues, should Hillary concede defeat in a race filled with so much uncertainty?

But as the race moves into its final stages, and as the Michigan and Florida sideshow is resolved, the race moves ever closer to that one thing the Clinton campaign cannot afford to accept: certainty.

It appears likely that Michigan will hold a state run primary, funded by private donors. In January, Hillary faired quite well in the primary, garnering 55% of the vote. This, of course, was at a time when Clinton had blunted Obama's Iowa momentum with a victory in New Hampshire, a time when many wondered if Obama could possibly survive. It was also, as is well-known by now, a primary that excluded Obama's name from the ballot, the result of a pledge taken by both candidates, but honored only by Obama.

Without another major candidate on the ballot, Clinton still won a smaller percentage in Michigan than Obama won in Alabama, Nebraska, Washington, Maine, Virginia, Maryland, Wyoming, Mississippi, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Louisiana, among others. She ran unopposed; unopposed nearly won. Michigan is especially advantageous to Obama demographically. A win for him in the state's second effort is likely. A delegate rich victory for her is all but impossible.

Florida offers little more promise for the Clinton campaign. The vote-by-mail plan, originally floated by the state party, may not have been dead on arrival, but it was clearly mortally wounded. Neither campaign was comfortable with the option, and the entire Florida Congressional delegation expressed its opposition. For logistical reasons, neither a new primary or caucus was feasible. As of yesterday, the Florida Democratic party announced that there will not be a revote.

Senator Nelson's recent suggestion, to seat the January delegates, but with half a vote each, seems as though it will be the only viable option. In that scenario, Clinton will net only 19 delegates. To put that in perspective, Obama netted 10 additional delegates at the Iowa county conventions last weekend, an event that passed largely under the radar. Even if Clinton enjoys the support of 75% of the Michigan and Florida superdelegates, she will only gain an additional 14 delegates.

Each available option provides Clinton with too few gains and even fewer alternative paths to the nomination. Even in the popular vote count, the addition of Michigan and Florida will be insufficient for Clinton to overtake Obama.

The Clinton campaign is running out of options and running out of time. If a compromise is not reached before the convention, the fate of Florida and Michigan's delegations will be in the hands of the Credentials Committee, a committee guaranteed to be controlled by the Obama campaign. In such a situation, each delegation would be undoubtedly seated, but with a 50/50 split, netting zero delegates for Clinton. Hillary Clinton cannot afford to allow the Florida/Michigan controversy to continue to the convention, but she also cannot afford to have the chaos resolved now.

Certainty has become her greatest enemy.

A compromise is on the horizon. At this point, that appears all but inevitable. But short of a miracle, or at least a major unforeseeable event, the locomotive that is Hillary Clinton's campaign is coming perilously close to running out of tracks.

Comments

[Aaror]

But...
As long as she can reasonably remain in the race, she can try to hurt Obama without too much flak. "She is just trying to win."
As soon as she drops out, she can't try to help McCain without turning off far more Democratic voters.
Near as I can tell her plan is to help McCain win this year so that she can run in '12.

[observer1728]

A couple of quick comments:

1 - It seems this story was posted before the author read Monday's news. The Florida Democratic Party announced yesterday that there will be no re-vote of any kind in Florida.

2 - There is also another option open to Obama that noone is talking about. All he needs to do is say, "The rules were made a year and a half ago. ALL of us agreed to the rules. I followed the rules, and two states chose not to. NO revotes, no arbitrary assignments of delegates, nothing. Period."

Why should he agree to some plan which gives Mrs. Clinton a gain of 19 delegates in Florida based on the results of our (I live in Miami) bogus primary?

Why should he agree to a re-vote in Michigan? The plan is obviously terribly flawed, and not likely to pass the Michigan legislature in the first place.

Everyone likes to throw around words like "disenfranchise," but what about the 26 MILLION voters who voted in legitimate primaries in states which followed the rules? If Obama simply says "No" to any seating of delegates from Michigan and Florida, he's just following the rules, and respecting those votes.

And if he says that, it's over.

[goodsnservices]

He probably won't simply say "no." There's a growing sense that the delegates from Florida may be seated as a 50/50 split for both candidates. It makes sense. The state can still take part, but neither candidate gets an advantage over the other.

[GetAGrip]

Interesting thought. But she'll really be playing a very fine balancing act.

Can she damge Obama enough so that he would lose to McCain, and furthermore not be stained by her tactics to get the democatic nomination in '12.?

Furthermore, is she willing to run against an incumbent in '12?

She's playing the hand of a spoiler, and playing it pretty well. She's trying to get Obama to slip up by saying or doing something stupid, or by trying to get race injected as an issue or any number of tactics to get the nomination.and if not that, then get some pretty major concessions out of Obama and the DNC to go away. And let's not get to precious about it, that's what politics is all about.

However, I really don't think she can damage Obama enough for him to lose to McCain, given that he has associated himself so closely to Bush's economic and military policies.

It is conceivable to that Clinton is staying in the race to raise money to build a movement around herself, that is not dependent upon the Democratic party. She could run as an independent in '12 against Obama.

This is not as far fetched as seems, if you look ahead to the next four years, the US will have to face some pretty hard decisions both domestic and foreign, and considering the forces that will be aligned against Obama, he could become very,very unpopular in four years time.

She is a very, very smart lady and staying in the race is actually the best strategy she has, since it gives her a number of ways to still get to the White House, at worst she gains financially and politically by being still a force to be reckoned with.