The End of Palin

Well, she didn't quit to run for president.

Nobody would do that, could possibly do that, could at any point be told by any person that an idea that crazy might actually work out. It's not just that it's irrational; it's that it's insane. There is no political playbook (there will never be a political playbook) that calls this play.

Whatever the reason, it isn't that.

Keep in mind that if you could pick any day in the year to dump a story like this, to try to damp down negative coverage, you'd have to go with the Friday before July 4th. If you wanted to keep the story low-key you'd hold a small press conference, hastily announced, before all of the press could arrive to ask questions. If you thought the story was a bad one, you'd do exactly what Sarah Palin just finished doing.

What kind of scandal could cause a resignation before the story has even broken? Pay-for-play, Ted Stevens style? A briefcase full of cash? Will there be handcuffs? Is there an ethics investigation bombshell about to be dropped? Did she kill Michael Jackson?

It's just so exciting to think about.

But while Democrats have taken joy of late, impressed by how utterly fulfilling the twists and turns of Republican scandal can be, the total collapse of political characters like Sarah Palin and Mark Sanford may actually be the best thing that could happen to the GOP.

There is no doubt that the Sarah Palin of only a week ago would have been a leading contender to win the Iowa caucus in 2012. Her celebrity would have been a useful tool for building the kind of ground game necessary to compete there and her appeal among the religious right is high (60 percent of Iowa Republican primary voters are evangelicals). But had that win been her springboard to the nomination, it could have literally destroyed the GOP.

Against a powerful Obama organization and with a massive intellectual disadvantage, Palin's lack of discipline and intelligence, her unyielding preference for trite rhetoric over even the illusion of substance, her total lack of self-awareness and her obvious lack of readiness would have caused unknowable damage to her party.

Every week, she finds a new way to embarrass herself. Lucky for Republicans, her latest train wreck means a future disaster avoided.

Mark Sanford too could have torn his party apart. Surely under the scrutiny of running for national office, Sanford's exotic personal life would have been uncovered. Having this saga unfold now is far better for the GOP than having it unfold two weeks after Sanford's nomination.

Whoever is unlucky enough to take on Obama in the 2012 race is going to face the most formidable incumbent in the history of American politics. The size and scope of his campaign organization will be so massive, so all-encompassing, that defeating it will be nearly impossible.

If there's anyone who can, they aren't on the stage right now. Not a single name mentioned as a potential Republican presidential candidate has anything near what it would take. The party needs to look elsewhere for its savior.

Though they may not realize it, the best hope of Republicans is for more scandals among their starting lineup. For a backbencher to emerge onto that stage, it helps to have Palin and Sanford falling off of it headfirst.

Comments

[kimk3]

I'm not voting for him again. Why bother? He's hasn't changed any of the Bush policies that really matter -- war, the economy, giving all the money to the banks, torture, transparency, accoutnability, energy -- clean coal anyone? - tobacco industry just wrote their own legislation, insurance company's going to do the same with health care, and just wait until he starts on social security to please the bankers. He won't need my money -- he'll have all the corporate love he needs.

[Beng]

I agree with Kim.

[Fabienne]

Perhaps you haven't noticed -- he has said definitively we will not be torturing any more -- he has signed several bills favorable to labor -- he is pushing alternative energy bills, which may not be the extreme that is needed but are still far and away better than Bush's -- he has an agreement with Russia to cut our respective nuclear arsenals by one-third, with hope of much more to come -- he has convinced the rest of the world not to hate us -- he has done more in six months than Bill Clinton and his co-President Hillary Clinton did in eight years. I would like him to do much more, of course, but then, I live in reality.

[mredder4]

Dude, a lot can happen in 3.5 years, and there are statistically more one-term presidents than two-termers. It's Obama that has history to overcome, not his potential opponent.

As a Democrat, this incessant worship is becoming hard to deal with.

[aftershock]

"As a Democrat, this incessant worship is becoming hard to deal with."

Second that. And posters here seem to have the same mindset. They constantly talk of how Obama has 8 years, completely ignoring that he isn't guaranteed a second term. Basically, it's the economy stupid, and if he doesn't get it turned around, he's going to lose in a landslide in 2012. I'd hate to see it happen, but that's just political reality in America.

[danzbassman]

While I agree that it would ultimately serve us better to be more critical of Obama's performance as President, rather than just basking in the bright light of his charisma, I think the GOP is going to have a hard time finding a candidate who can defeat Obama in 2012.

The talking heads, pundits, press, bloggers, and other Obama acolytes may be approaching the 2012 election as if its a foregone conclusion that Obama will be re-elected I garauntee you that the Obama camp is NOT.

Unless Obama makes a lot of critical errors over the next 3 years, its going to be hard to unseat him.

[Stefano]

Agreed, while I am happy with Obama's job so far, Dylan's posts tend to be a little idealistic and dare I say niave. It wasn't long ago pundits were talking about the death of our party while Bush and the Repubicans had control of all three branches. But with a stimilus not stimulating, and a general feeling (one I do not agree with) that Wshington is spending like crazy with no regards to consequences, we could have another big turnover in Washington down the road. Those of us, like Dylan, who stay on top of news and politics might find that hard to believe, but we are the minority, most people do not take nuanced views on job performance. If the economy is still sluggish, the deficit much larger, etc, they will blame the Democrats (blame who's in charge) Where I do agree with Dylan is my feeling that Obama will be above it all, in other words people may re-elect the man, but repudiate some of the policies. I hope I'm wrong and he is given 8 years to enact his policies, but I'm all ready hearing the drumbeat of people refering back to Jimmy Carter, well meaning but niave.

[noamjunior]

unless the country gets a massive case of amnesia and totally forgets 2001-2008, obama is a shoe-in

[LaughingMan]

.......you do realize that that (the country getting a massive case of amnesia re: 2001-2008) is not an entirely impossible situation?

We did, after all, give Bush 43 two terms even after we knew what he was like as a president, and even after he outright lied to the American people.

[bryan-a]

"Whoever is unlucky enough to take on Obama in the 2012 race is going to face the most formidable incumbent in the history of American politics. The size and scope of his campaign organization will be so massive, so all-encompassing, that defeating it will be nearly impossible­."

JEEE-SUS CHRIST - hyperbole, much?

[alpaig]

I'm a Democrat, but I don't think the Democrats can gloat and sit comfortably back thinking the GOP is going to take huge losses in the next 2-4 years. We have a rushed stimulus package that's not working, rushed health care reform coming down the pipeline in addition to energy and immigration,
regulatory reform that has loopholes large enough to drive a truck through and jobs continuing to decline. The Democrats will rise and fall on these successes or failures and what always counts with the voters is whether or not the economy is working for them at any given time- so the Democrats can't smirk and sit on their laurels. Palin, Huckabee, the Sanford's - any of the right wingers won't stand a chance (thank god) but there are Republicans out there like Huntsman Jr (who now works for Obama)
who could give Obama a real run for his money . Whether or not the GOP will wise up and rally behind someone like that is yet to be seen, at this point it appears not- but time will tell.

[MikeLicht]

Mrs. Palin's speech clearly signaled her intentions to swim upstream and spawn.

Of course the sports metaphors may indicate that she's signed with the WNBA.


http://notionscapital.wordpress.com/2009/07/04/great-decisions-2009/

[Ryan Lobo]

Let us not forget that Palin WAS a Mayor, a Governor and a Presidential running mate who was successful in stirring up the base!!

The problem with most of the right wing cuckoos is that they are too closeminded and quite ignorant themselves and that's why they supported Palin!

[pfrogger]

yes, yes, Palin is a quitter. winner of the iquitarod. haha.
I thought better of HuffPo. Aren't we supposed to be the smart ones.
Seeing Palin's actions only through our perspective is the classic blunder. And yes, when she runs for 2012, there will be many quitting jokes. But what about their perspective?

Palin has a rabidly loyal fan base. The religious tones only add to the obsequious fawning and hardened loyalty. Those who now describe themselves as GOP may only constitute 20%. But this 20% is the extreme right. And they not only love and adore Palin, they see her as the second coming. They see her as their savior from the liberals and the "gay agenda", ie. equal rights. Those who are left of the GOP are the "pure" conservatives. They will support her to the gates of hell.
Add to this the economy. And gay equality. And all the "commie", "socialist", and "fascist" ideals that are perceived by the right, and you have a very vocal, and strong base. They do NOT care if she quits. She could murder children on the street randomly and they would still love her. Can't you people see that? She's more dangerous than ever. Fox News is the most watched news station. They blatantly lie and people still flock to it. Does anyone doubt if these same people will support Palin? I don't.

[pfrogger]

Many, including moderates and those hurt by the financial crisis will see anything less than complete economic recovery as Obama's failure. They don't have to use logic, because their base and many Americans don't use logic. They use their "gut", like good ole Bush. This is a classic setup. You don't need answers if you're the GOP/Palin. You just need to tell people what's wrong with their life and who's to blame. And they'll eat it up. They'll vote against their own self interests, as they have done many times before.
Don't get complacent. And start seeing things through their perspective. Or Palin will win in 2012.

[-0013]

If the economy doesn't turn around people won't look at that as Obama's failure.

They'll be too busy focusing on his botched attempt to fix health case as his failure.

[delriofarms]

END OF PALIN? U WISH
Obama in 2012 ? Keep drinking the Koolaid and wearing those rose colored glasses. It all looks good then right? You wont even feel the huge tax increases your about to pay for.

Withn the year, both democrats and republican citizens of this country will be so Pissed Off with Obama and his administration, I will be amazed if he is not impeached before the end of his elected term.

As for Palin, the FACT that no one wants to recognize is this. 30,000 people show up to see her in NEW YORK, 100 people show up to listen to Biden talk about the stimulus package of Obama's

If you think the American people are not watching the constant attacks against Palin and asking why, you are more out of touch that your article implies.

FACT - Obama and the Democrats are SCARED TO DEATH of her and want her as far away from the 2012 election as Possible. The irony is the more they go after her she gains more recognition and sympathy.

Keep up the GOOD WORK LOEWE, and help the cause.

[pfrogger]

accurately said.
Palin is still very dangerous. She's Bush in high heels.
The real trick with her revitalization is how to attract more moderates without annoying the base.

Can she do it?
Of course the usual tactic is to focus on the Obama's lack of success, which they are already doing. All the GOP/Fox News has to do is keep repeating the same lie and place the onus of the financial crisis on Obama. Which they're already doing.
Many of the base flock religiously to Fox. And they will believe the lie if it's told enough times.
Palin is still very dangerous. She appeals to the ignorant and foolish, who have shown they will vote against their own self interest.

[customgreen]

Palin is a fool that just shot herself in the foot. She has no core values, she has no basic knowledge of how our government was formed, and certainly not how it works. She creates media sensations by saying goofy junk that the ardent follwers eat up like cotton candy. Across the country the vast majority of people see her as an idiot, less than proffesional politician, and a no nothing self indulgent cry baby. Crowds of 30,000 try 250,000 for Obama, try world wide leader. I relish the day she tries to run herself against Obama. The man will leave her in a babbling pool of idiotic sayings that have no substance. It would be like shooting fish in a barrel, or wolves from a helicopter.

[-0013]

"The man will leave her in a babbling pool of idiotic sayings that have no substance"

Obama has just as much substance in his policies except he's just damn good with that teleprompter. The man can read a speech I'll give him that.

[nicholasfromWA]

Amazed if he isn't impeached? American's aren't too quick on the draw to impeach anyone, especially Presidents, who have a de facto license to commit just about any crime short of embezzlement.

Honestly, no one is "scared" of her. Why would we be? A strong Presidential candidate shouldn't "scare" anyone, but offer tangible levels of hope and optimism. If you think she fits that bill, fine, but most Americans won't.

Thanks for playing, though!

[raop]

FACT - Obama and the Democrats are SCARED TO DEATH of her and want her as far away from the 2012 election as Possible.

The most hilarious thing I have read all day. Palin does not have the intellectual capabilities required to run for a class or school president. And that statement about 30000 showing up in New York, 125000 showed up for Obama in St.Louis. If you can do basic maths, figure out which one is higher. MJ got millions at his concert. That doesnt mean he was good for being president. You talk of Obama being impeached?? Are you off your mind? If W and Dick Cheney can escape impeachment for the WMD BS, then there is no way Obama gets impeached.

[danzbassman]

I'll admit I'm scared of Palin. I am scared she may well get elected POTUS at some point. This would be an absolute disaster for the country and the world. Palin may attract a good number of rabid followers, but she is simply not suited for the presidency. She isn't smart enough, she isn't knowledgeable enough, and she isn't wise enough.

The right, GOPers, Fauxnews, Limbaugh, etc whine about how the mainstream media attacked Palin, but this is utter bullsh*t. The truth is if Palin had been able to answer some fairly basic questions about her suitability for the office of VP, she would've survived the vetting process just fine. But she couldn't answer those questions because she is absolutely unqualified for the office.

So, yes I FEAR the prospect of a Palin presidency because this is a complicated world and this country faces complex problems that require an astute mind capable of more than spouting idiotic platitudes and trite jingoism.

[ceindependence]

Fear of Palin is so obvious that it is almost amusing. Remember, very few conservatives liked John McCain. With the complete support of the national media and the inept republican party, Obama received 66 million votes and McCain got 58 million votes. What a difference! Only eight million more voted for Obama. Not really a landslide with a population close to three hundred million. Kinda scary, huh?

Now with a one trillion dollar stimulas and a second being discussed, where are the jobs? Of cousrse they could have given us a break on payroll taxes. We would have spent that money. We may have bought washing machines, flat tvs or even saved some money. They could have given tax credits for purchase of autos from GM or Chrysler. We would have bought new cars and jobs would have been saved. But Obama wanted to help the unions and not the people themselves. How are those toxic mortgages doing today? Are they paid off yet? Even the climate bill is acknowledged to do little to help stop or slow global warming. With all the broken promises of Obama so far and many yet to come, don't count those chickens yet.

[aftershock]

"What a difference! Only eight million more voted for Obama. Not really a landslide with a population close to three hundred million. Kinda scary, huh?"

Ummm... it was the largest margin of victory for any non-incumbent in American history, I'd call that rather impressive.

"Of cousrse they could have given us a break on payroll taxes. We would have spent that money"

Yes give a tax break when consumer confidence is down and people are being laid off because that's totally a sign that people are willing to spend. Cutting taxes would've only increased the amount people saved. You'd have to cut taxes to nearly nothing to create spending in the environment the economy was when the stimulus was passed.

"They could have given tax credits for purchase of autos from GM or Chrysler."

That's not going to erase the image that GM and Chrysler make crappy cars that don't get good gas mileage.

Other than that I agree it's far too early to declare Obama will be one of the toughest incumbents in history to beat. Let's not forget Jimmy Carter carried similar approval ratings as Obama up to this point in his Presidency

[jnik]

RUN, Sarah! RUN!
I'm going to cross over and vote for her in the 2012 GOP Primary! Who's with me?

[ErnestineBass]

Sorry, Dylan, but if Obama and his Democratic Congressional majority fail to enact meaningful health care reform, or to clean up and re-regulate the financial industry, the "size and scope of his campaign organization" won't matter one whit come 2012.

Forget the Republican­s...Obama and the Dems will be taken down by a third party.

[meko]

You're right. If Obama fails to deliver on the main issues that got him elected by a stunning majority - in the name of bipartisanship, for goodness sake - he's not going to have the support of the people who did the work to get him elected.

It won't be a third party though. All it will take is a Republican who isn't so strident about social issues and focuses instead on economic ones.

[pfrogger]

the big problem with the GOP is that they love big business more than Obama and the Dems. they keep repeating the same mantra: "government is bad, capitalism will save us".
First, any one can see that the capitalism they talk of almost destroyed this country and brought the world to its knees.
Second, why the hell do we elect these people? To make government work for the people. If they can't do their job, then they should resign or be fired. They're admitting their own incompetence. If a CEO of a company said his company was bad, then he would be fired right away. But in politics, the GOP can say whatever incompetent thing pops into their head.

[knowwhatimsayin]

I think the only way Obama could be taken down by a third party candidate (like a Perot type figure) is if that if the economy was still in shambles and that candidate was a populist that attacked him from the left. He or she would have to peel away his natural constituancy of liberals and moderate independents. Its hard to see who that would be. Any third party that attacked him from the right would take away votes from the Republican nominee and would make it easier for Obama to win.

[ErnestineBass]

Perhaps an Independent like Bernie Sanders, or a member of the "Democratic wing of the Democratic party" like Marcie Kaptur or Dennis Kucinich?

[ImJustSaying007]

In the back yard of the house that you can see Russia from at that.

[JumonvilleGlen]

"Whoever is unlucky enough to take on Obama in the 2012 race is going to face the most formidable incumbent in the history of American politics."

President Obama really won't be close to that title. Only one President in our history won all electoral votes available during his election and his re-election. That was George Washington. It wasn't even close.

I do not see any Rep able to take on the President in 2012 and win.

[EStreetShuffler]

Great historical point.

And while I agree there's no decent GOP candidate on the horizon, let's not get ahead of ourselves and assume that the country will be doing so well that people won't be looking for a new prez. Even Obama has said, more than once, that if the economy doesn't pick up, if his policies and programs don't start to really turn things around for people, someone else will be in that job four years from now.

The GOP is a mess, granted, but for Obama to be as formidable as you predict, we'll have to have more people working and fewer folks walking away from their homes.

[Json]

"her unyielding preference for trite rhetoric over even the illusion of substance"

is one of the greatest descriptions of Palin that I have read.

[kalli007]

I thought the exact same thing when I read it! Couldn't have said it better!

[-0013]

The illusion of substance is Obama's wheelhouse.

[sciphy]

Am I the only one just waiting to see what Jon Stewart or Stephen Colbert have to say about Sarah Palin? It's just so unfair when the pols do silly things during long holiday weekends in the summer months. Really, Stewart and Colbert have no business taking vacations at times like these. Where are their priorities?