The End of Palin

Well, she didn't quit to run for president.

Nobody would do that, could possibly do that, could at any point be told by any person that an idea that crazy might actually work out. It's not just that it's irrational; it's that it's insane. There is no political playbook (there will never be a political playbook) that calls this play.

Whatever the reason, it isn't that.

Keep in mind that if you could pick any day in the year to dump a story like this, to try to damp down negative coverage, you'd have to go with the Friday before July 4th. If you wanted to keep the story low-key you'd hold a small press conference, hastily announced, before all of the press could arrive to ask questions. If you thought the story was a bad one, you'd do exactly what Sarah Palin just finished doing.

What kind of scandal could cause a resignation before the story has even broken? Pay-for-play, Ted Stevens style? A briefcase full of cash? Will there be handcuffs? Is there an ethics investigation bombshell about to be dropped? Did she kill Michael Jackson?

It's just so exciting to think about.

But while Democrats have taken joy of late, impressed by how utterly fulfilling the twists and turns of Republican scandal can be, the total collapse of political characters like Sarah Palin and Mark Sanford may actually be the best thing that could happen to the GOP.

There is no doubt that the Sarah Palin of only a week ago would have been a leading contender to win the Iowa caucus in 2012. Her celebrity would have been a useful tool for building the kind of ground game necessary to compete there and her appeal among the religious right is high (60 percent of Iowa Republican primary voters are evangelicals). But had that win been her springboard to the nomination, it could have literally destroyed the GOP.

Against a powerful Obama organization and with a massive intellectual disadvantage, Palin's lack of discipline and intelligence, her unyielding preference for trite rhetoric over even the illusion of substance, her total lack of self-awareness and her obvious lack of readiness would have caused unknowable damage to her party.

Every week, she finds a new way to embarrass herself. Lucky for Republicans, her latest train wreck means a future disaster avoided.

Mark Sanford too could have torn his party apart. Surely under the scrutiny of running for national office, Sanford's exotic personal life would have been uncovered. Having this saga unfold now is far better for the GOP than having it unfold two weeks after Sanford's nomination.

Whoever is unlucky enough to take on Obama in the 2012 race is going to face the most formidable incumbent in the history of American politics. The size and scope of his campaign organization will be so massive, so all-encompassing, that defeating it will be nearly impossible.

If there's anyone who can, they aren't on the stage right now. Not a single name mentioned as a potential Republican presidential candidate has anything near what it would take. The party needs to look elsewhere for its savior.

Though they may not realize it, the best hope of Republicans is for more scandals among their starting lineup. For a backbencher to emerge onto that stage, it helps to have Palin and Sanford falling off of it headfirst.

Comments

[power1]

We'll see how powerful of an incumbent Obama will be after he gets through with destroying the economy.

[BlackJAC]

Funny how you gops always blame-shift when things go south on your watch, ain't it?

[Json]

Bush gave a him a great start on destroying the economy, so with a little luck, I think he can finish it off. ;)

[Nitehawk]

You are proceding from the false assumption that the economy is being destroyed.

[Pupadup4oBama]

cant wait until we can say - see...told ya so!

[iskra]

I wouldn't be so cocky about it.

As much as I like Obama, there's still years to go before a reelection. If the economy doesn't recover, no decent public option on health care, and a string of other campaign promises broken it might not be the cakewalk you make it out to be.

I for one will vote against him if he drops the ball on healthcare.

[CitizenJ]

You would vote for any of the "front runner" Republicans over Obama because of healthcare? How about we vote out the spineless Dems in Congress who don't pass the bill?

This is why single issue voting is horrible for our country. We cut off our nose to spite our face. Voting for a party with views antithethical to yours might make you feel better in the short run, but it hurts you in the long run. The vast majority of right wing social conservatives would be better off individually if they voted for Democrats.

[-0013]

Tell that story when your taxes go up in later this year.

[dollyfedup]

Great article! very true.

[RamonBackwards]

How can we act in a Christ-like way towards Governor Palin? I think that's the best question to ask.

We simply can not afford to continue this level of partisan animosity and yes, hatred towards each other. Isn't anyone else exhausted from this?

Fortunately, we probably don't even have to deal with her on the level of a legitimate contender for president. I don't believe she could ever be a legitimate contender, so there's no excuse not to treat her as kindly as possible.

It's time to look for those opportunities and act on them.

[Thabit]

Yea especially since she won the Iquitarod on friday

[LMPE]

Considering that the Grand Oil Party's only chance is if Obama does something incredibly stupid (which is relative after George W. Bush), the party has little if any chance in 2012.

[andycan]

RÊPUBLICANS HEAL YOURSELVES


The Republicans have to do serious soul-searching and revise their ston-age rhetoric.
They have to give up their cheap manipulative talk and take a sizeable distance from what is basically Aryan Nations ideology. Let them take a look at the world as it is and become realistic-Please wean yourselves off your schizoid-aggressive rhetoric and underlying thought. As the religious Fundamentalists say ``It`s time for healing`':
Republicans heal yourselves from your violent delusions!

[Jamchinadian]

"Whoever is unlucky enough to take on Obama in the 2012 race is going to face the most formidable incumbent in the history of American politics. The size and scope of his campaign organization will be so massive, so all-encompassing, that defeating it will be nearly impossible".

... and as if that were not enough, this time around, he'll have the Clinton machine by his side from day one.

... and not the least of that will be Hillary herself from day one ... can hardly wait :-)

[StevenWells]

Barring some unforeseen, zeitgeist-altering event or circumstance, the Repubs will do as they did in '96 with Dole - as the Dems also did in '84 with Mondale - and run a place-holder; someone with no chance of winning, but who will fill the ticket because somebody's got to. And to do this they won't waste "new blood" in whom they see potential, so a been-around-a-while familiar face will be chosen in what amounts to the political equivalent of an honorary Oscar or AFI lifetime achievement award.

In order for them to regain the kind of electoral success they've enjoyed in the past, they need a complete top-to-bottom reinvention; something that will simply not be possible by '12 - especially with the likes of Palin, Bachmann, Sanford, Steele, Gingrich and all the others who currently represent the "brand" continuing their theater of the absurd performances.

Besides, it'll take until '16 for the electorate to become completely fed-up with the Dems - again - for having squandered the opportunities they were given by the '08 election, which they no doubt will.

[sdskelton03]

"Whoever is unlucky enough to take on Obama in the 2012 race is going to face the most formidable incumbent in the history of American politics."

I know you like your guy, but isn't this statement a little premature and over the top? How about when Washington ran for Re-election? Lincoln's re-election after the states that opposed him left the union? Roosevelt in 1936? Reagan won 49 states in 1984.

We are still 3.5 years from the next presidential election, and a lot can happen in that time. You might want to re-think that one.

[knowwhatimsayin]

A lot can happen in the next three years--you're right. As an independent Obama supporter, I worry about others getting too cocky at this point. If the economy is still in the toilet in 2012 then Obama could be in trouble. But assuming things do look better in three years--it is hard to see who in the Republican party could really mlount a challenge to President Obama. I personally think Romney could run a respectable race. Some centrists like Crist and Huntsman pitted against conservatives like Gingrich and Huckabee might make the nomination race interesting as well. But if the holier-than-thou brigade prevails and nominates a real social conservative that excites the base but turns others off (like Palin) I think you could be looking at a 1964, 1972 or 1984 style landslide for the incumbent.

[sdskelton03]

Look at the approval numbers for Bush 41 with just two years to go in his term. All of the heavyweight Democrats didn't run, which paved the way for a little known governor from Arkansas.

[hollybork]

Who can challenge Obama in 2012. The article begs the question.

Sarah is out, Gov. Sanford and Sen. Ensign are radioactive, Jindal has proven to have the charisma of a noodle and Chalie Christ evokes too many teasing whispers. The Republican members of Congress like Boehner, Cantor, McConnel or Jeff Sessions have been ineffectual, whining and unproductive in the last 6 months, when they weren't outright nuts. None of them has a prayer to raise the kind of interest and financing they would need to run against Obama.

Let's say Obama is successful in passing an energy bill and national healthcare in his first term. Who can run against him credibly and hold his own in debate and fundraising?

Newt Romney is the only one who can go the distance. He would make an interesting foil to Pres. Obama, and he is certainly steady and smart enough to make a credible run. He is said to be brilliant on economics and finance, but at least he could debate economics with persuasion unlike John McCaine. He also presents a clean cut image. A battle between these two would be very interesting.

[kalli007]

Who the h3ll is Newt Romney? Mitt Gingrich's brother?!?!

[kepary]

why does the left fear Sarah Palin so much?

[CyrusBeaucephus]

Why did you vote for her? That's way weirder, and pitiful, too

[JumpDownTurnAround]

I think the question is "Why does Sarah Palin fear the left so much?"
We don't fear her. We want her to be the GOP candidate to go against Obama!
What could possibly make you think we fear HER?

[CyrusBeaucephus]

Rush told him to say that

[JohnBryansFontaine]

Our view: Palin calls it quits
http://www.adn.com/opinion/view/story/852900.html

lilsuzq32 wrote on 07/05/2009 08:35:22 AM:


Top 10 Real Reasons Sarah Palin Is Resigning As Governor:

10. She's pregnant again and is having John Edwards' baby.

9. She's "hiking the Appalachian Trail" with Mark Sanford.

8. She wants to spend more time teaching abstinence to her family.

7. She's joining the cast of "I'm a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here!"

6. She wants to spend more time watching Russia from her house.

5. She wants to devote herself full-time to making comedians apologize for all the new jokes they're going to tell about her.

4. Her daughter Bristol actually IS having Alex Rodriguez's baby.

3. She's taking up Playboy's offer to pose nude as part of their upcoming "Governors Gone Wild" issue.

2. She came to the end of the Bridge to Nowhere that is her political career.

1. She didn't resign at all. It was an elaborate hoax pulled off by Tina Fey.

[longtalldrink]

LOL! Excellent

[ThanksMatt]

Thank you for this excellent article!

[paixa3]

Dylan, I hate to say you are incorrect in your headline.

If the healthcare bill does not favor the people, rather than business, OBAMA will be toast.

He has caved on EVERY other issue that congress flapped their gums over.

[FortressOrange]

This 27 year old conservative agrees.

I thought Sanford had great potential, but he made his bed and has to sleep in it.

As far as Palin, I did a cartwheel when I found out about her resignation.

I'm sick of the GOP old-guard. Newt/Palin/etc, get out of here. I'd rather spend an additional decade out of power waiting on leaders with principles to emerge than to see some "Do as I say not as I do", fiscally irresponsible, 'neo-con' toolbag stepping into office and abandoning our constitution and true conservative ideology at the expense of the party (and country).

Great post.