The End of Palin

Well, she didn't quit to run for president.

Nobody would do that, could possibly do that, could at any point be told by any person that an idea that crazy might actually work out. It's not just that it's irrational; it's that it's insane. There is no political playbook (there will never be a political playbook) that calls this play.

Whatever the reason, it isn't that.

Keep in mind that if you could pick any day in the year to dump a story like this, to try to damp down negative coverage, you'd have to go with the Friday before July 4th. If you wanted to keep the story low-key you'd hold a small press conference, hastily announced, before all of the press could arrive to ask questions. If you thought the story was a bad one, you'd do exactly what Sarah Palin just finished doing.

What kind of scandal could cause a resignation before the story has even broken? Pay-for-play, Ted Stevens style? A briefcase full of cash? Will there be handcuffs? Is there an ethics investigation bombshell about to be dropped? Did she kill Michael Jackson?

It's just so exciting to think about.

But while Democrats have taken joy of late, impressed by how utterly fulfilling the twists and turns of Republican scandal can be, the total collapse of political characters like Sarah Palin and Mark Sanford may actually be the best thing that could happen to the GOP.

There is no doubt that the Sarah Palin of only a week ago would have been a leading contender to win the Iowa caucus in 2012. Her celebrity would have been a useful tool for building the kind of ground game necessary to compete there and her appeal among the religious right is high (60 percent of Iowa Republican primary voters are evangelicals). But had that win been her springboard to the nomination, it could have literally destroyed the GOP.

Against a powerful Obama organization and with a massive intellectual disadvantage, Palin's lack of discipline and intelligence, her unyielding preference for trite rhetoric over even the illusion of substance, her total lack of self-awareness and her obvious lack of readiness would have caused unknowable damage to her party.

Every week, she finds a new way to embarrass herself. Lucky for Republicans, her latest train wreck means a future disaster avoided.

Mark Sanford too could have torn his party apart. Surely under the scrutiny of running for national office, Sanford's exotic personal life would have been uncovered. Having this saga unfold now is far better for the GOP than having it unfold two weeks after Sanford's nomination.

Whoever is unlucky enough to take on Obama in the 2012 race is going to face the most formidable incumbent in the history of American politics. The size and scope of his campaign organization will be so massive, so all-encompassing, that defeating it will be nearly impossible.

If there's anyone who can, they aren't on the stage right now. Not a single name mentioned as a potential Republican presidential candidate has anything near what it would take. The party needs to look elsewhere for its savior.

Though they may not realize it, the best hope of Republicans is for more scandals among their starting lineup. For a backbencher to emerge onto that stage, it helps to have Palin and Sanford falling off of it headfirst.

Comments

[smoovejef]

I must admit, it will be quite interesting to see who comes forth to emerge as the standard-bearer for the GOP for 2012. Dylan made an observation that no Republican would have the guts to say out loud: Obama is more than formidable, he's also the incumbent. He organized a political machine the likes this country had never witnessed before, and the GOP was woefully unprepared. Since Election Day, they don't seem to have made much progress. All buffoonary aside, Sarah Palin stood a better than average chance of at least being in a position of challenging for the GOP front-runner spot. That's all gone now. Troopergate, ethics complaints, teenage pregnant daughters and the 'First Dude' as a greater than cabinet-level adviser are kindergarten concerns compared to the firestorm of quitting and complaining about the media scrutiny for being a state executive of limited intelligence.

She wanted national exposure; instead, she has been nationally exposed.

[Mickey7]

It is surprising to me that so many commentators talk about 'political playbooks' and the 'Friday before a holiday' strategy as if Palin EVER strategized anything. Her advisers are a bunch of starry-eyed rubes--at best medium fish in a small pond. I think it's giving them far too much credit to assume there was strategy involved in any of this. It probably seemed spontaneous and poorly planned because that is exactly what it was. She clearly wasn't counting on a quiet holiday weekend to let the news digest because she didn't even wait 24hours before thrusting herself back into the headlines.

I'm also having a hard time believing the scandal angle. She's already demonstrated that if something does not fit her idealized view of herself, she simply dismisses the reality of it. Quitting to protect the state or others from potentially damaging actions on her part is simply not her style. She is not selfless enough for that.

I think it's much more simple. She probably finalized her contract with Fox News Friday morning and had to quickly get out of her obligations to the state. Her new job won't be announced until after she officially is out of office for the sake of appearance.

[hollybork]

Great post. I think you hit every point dead on.

[ritikatootie]

I agree with your Fox contract assessment. I think Palin will be hosting an afternoon show to compete with the Oprah, View, Ellen, etc. audience.

[longtalldrink]

...but what will they do about that VOICE? Like fingernails on a chalkboard.

[PeppermintTwist]

Excellent piece!!! I issued forth an especially empassioned "So true!" over the following quote: "Against a powerful Obama organization and with a massive intellectual disadvantage, Palin's lack of discipline and intelligence, her unyielding preference for trite rhetoric over even the illusion of substance, her total lack of self-awareness and her obvious lack of readiness would have caused unknowable damage to her party." Sarah Palin is, not to put too fine a point on it, and not to sound like I'm into personal attacks versus substantive ones--because in her case this sums up the substance of the situation: a TOTAL idiot! After not only listening to her incoherent and bizarre resignation speech, but also observing her body language and tone of voice, I can only conclude that she is running from something. IMHO, she must know that some scandal is about to break about her and she somehow mistakenly believes she can avert it and/or avoid it by resigning from office. To quote the late Johnny Carson: "Weird. Wild. Wacky." And, unfortunately, you are so right that her implosion now is one of the best things that could have happened for the Republican Party, because it makes way for some high-quality person to emerge and enter the field of 2012 candidates. Sarah Palin's fifteen minutes of fame are over.

[herronsmith]

Too much will happen between now and 2012 to assume Obama is going to the a shoo-in. His popularity is being chipped away by his own party! The Dems will never, ever come together as a party and Obama is too centrist for the majority of the population. 2012 will be symbolic in many ways and I foresee a big shake up. If I am right, somebody has to pay off my debt (because unfortunately, I don't see that happening).

[Outofnowhere]

"The Dems will never, every come together as a party.....­.." Oh yes, the GOP is much more disciplined and together. ROFLMAO!!!!!!!

[smoovejef]

Your post sounds more like wishful thinking than political analysis.

Tell you what; name a Republican candidate that could beat the president in 2012, and why you feel that they can.

[tjmlrc]

Mickey Mouse. I understand he is a Republican.

He's done more for this country on a positive note than obama has.

[NCIndependant]

" Obama is too centrist for the majority of the population"

So you're saying the majority of the population is to the left of Obama? I don't see how that helps the Republicans in 2012.
It is obvious the majority of the population is not to the right of Obama or he wouldn't have been elected. I suppose one could read that as the majority of the population is to the left AND right of Obama but that still looks like another Republican loss in 2012 to me.

[BobLablah]

Sarah's gone and I'm sad. Not because I liked her, because I liked reading all the Palin Derangment Syndrome rants here on the HuffPo. As I said all along, an insignificant governor of an insignificant state.

[birchtree3]

Don't worry. Palin is not gone. She's just answering a higher calling. She'll be around. She is too nar cissis tic to stay out of the limelight for long.

[longtalldrink]

you betcha

[Paul Roberts]

Go Sarah Palin!!!!! and take the GOP with you.