The Wrong Playbook

In the aftermath of the controversy that erupted over Senator Obama's remarks at a San Francisco fundraiser, members of the Republican establishment -- and the Clinton campaign -- have seen a possible opening. In the previous two election cycles, the GOP saw much of their success grow out of defining Al Gore and John Kerry as out-of-touch elitists, incapable of empathizing with average Americans. Gore assisted in the characterization, often presenting himself as a condescending lecturer; Kerry, too, was happy to oblige on a number of occasions, either by referring to Lambeau Field as Lambert Field, by ordering Swiss cheese on a Philly Cheesesteak, or by windsurfing in his downtime.

As a result, when Senator Obama used a poor word choice in describing small town voters, the GOP and the Clinton campaign shook the dust from the old Gore/Kerry playbook and began their assault. Hillary Clinton was quick to suggest that Obama had been divisive and elitist. She even chose to criticize Obama by comparing him to Kerry and Gore, an ill-advised mistake given Gore's position as the most prominent of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates.

McCain and the RNC also ramped up their attacks, giving the appearance that they expect to brand Obama with the same iron that bested his predecessors.

But there are substantial differences between Obama's candidacy and those of Gore and Kerry, differences that the GOP may ignore at their peril.

First, and perhaps most importantly, Gore and Kerry both secured the nomination because it was, at least in some sense, their turn. Gore had served dutifully as vice president and heir-apparent, while Kerry was the last of his entering Senate class yet to attempt a presidential bid. Their ascension to the nomination was as much the product of patience and timing as it was the result of political skill.

Obama's rise could not have been more different. A relatively unknown Senator with only two years in Washington, Barack Obama has become the near-presumptive nominee of his party by sheer will and persuasion. His success has been the direct result of connecting with voters, of getting in touch with their concerns and aspirations. Were he actually out of touch, his candidacy would have ended soon after Iowa, in the chorus of withdrawals that included Biden, Richardson, and Dodd.

The "elitist" line of attack worked with Gore and Kerry because they found it confounding, never fully able to forcefully respond. But unlike Gore and Kerry, Obama has shown himself to be exceptionally skilled at attacking from a defensive position. Each time he has been confronted with a potential controversy, he has used the opportunity to swing at his opponent while further validating the rationale for his candidacy. Early in the campaign, Hillary Clinton attacked Obama for what she described as an irresponsible and naïve willingness to meet with America's enemies. Rather than cower -- as Gore or Kerry might have been expected to -- Obama responded in kind, aggressively criticizing Clinton for her flawed way of thinking and for her support of the Iraq War. When Reverend Wright's comments presented a would-be firestorm, Obama used the opportunity to speak about race in America in a way that no public figure has since Martin Luther King, Jr. A recent Los Angeles Times poll actually suggests that Obama had a net positive gain as a result of the Wright controversy. Twenty four percent of Pennsylvanians said "his handling of the issue made them think more highly of him," while only fifteen percent thought less.

When the "bitterness" controversy arose, it provided Obama with yet another opportunity to gain advantage on defense, one he exercised with impressive swiftness and precision. Having mocked the utter silliness of the Clinton campaign's response to his comments, Obama cast Clinton as the out of touch candidate, both in her perception of those suffering economic hardship and in her understanding of the new kind of politics Democrats expect.

Unlike Gore and Kerry, when attacked, Obama can respond.

There is, of course, another reason why attacking Obama as an out-of-touch elitist would be a misguided strategy for the GOP. Obama knows what it is like to be black in America. He knows what it means to be poor in America. He knows what it means to struggle without succeeding, to be underestimated or written off. Al Gore may have been raised in a Washington hotel by a Tennessee Senator. John Kerry may have spent his formative years in elite private schools and living richly in France. But Barack Obama was raised by a single mother in a third world country, and has spent his adulthood on the Southside of Chicago. He and his predecessors are simply nothing alike.

Having little with which to come after Obama, there are many, including Karl Rove, who believe they have found hope's Achilles' heel. But recycling the same Gore/Kerry playbook would be an enormous mistake, one that clearly underestimates the quality of the opposition. In this political climate, with this many Americans frustrated and hungry for change, John McCain can ill-afford a debate about who's more out of touch.

Comments

[nighthawk808]

Maybe we do things differently in Cleveland, but good luck finding a Philly steak without Swiss cheese 'round these parts. Then again, we Rust Belters are notoriously elitist, and we're known for our discerning culinary taste.

[CAPTAINSKIPPY]

Mr. Loewe, your hope is fine, but your logic is off. It's not good that the Rethugs sliced&diced and Diebolded Gore & Kerry; however, that's exactly what they do, and will do again to average Americans, convincing many to vote against their own best interests. It's fine to believe that somehow Obama will be immune to standard Rethug tactics, yet if Wall Street isn't standing behind him, new guy Obama will be trampled and join past popular vote getters on the sidelines, while we'll get stuck with a small change from Bush to McBush, really small change.

[sts]

I believe it's time to support a third party candidate. We need a candidate with real leadership
qualities, a candidate that speaks honestly, a candidate who has a long record whose
views are well known. That candidate is Cynthia McKinney who is running for president for the
Green party. She has plans for addressing the war, the global weather crisis, and the economy.
These are clearly spelled out. She doesn't keep us guessing about what her real views are.
Check out www.runCynthiarun.org

[Suprshrink]

You say Obama is no Gore and no Kerry. Yet, look at who are supporting him. Kerry, Kennedy, and Daschle: losers all, elitists all. Gore has not stated his opinion but many of the pundits believe he will lean toward Obama. That would make it a clean sweep. The good old elitist boys netword will soon be intact.

[janvoght]

i cannot imagine a worse scenario than a mc bush administration for another four years, after the damage, trauma, scars, and corruption of the previous 7+ years. i believe sen. clinton would be in line with much of the bush policy and spending, and the only concepts brought forth that move us away from that government (the govt. that has proven itself not to be effective, but for a small 1 or 2% of our countries people). not acceptable. we need and deserve leadership like barack obama, and his ability to unite and not continue to divide as the "business as usual" crowd promises. let's make a change for the better! let's not allow our foolish choices of the past two terms to follow us into the futures of our children and grandchildren.
obama'08

[dotbed1]

John Mirtha hit the nail on the head . John McCain is too old to be president . If a RED phone wakes him up at 3am , he will ask what is that......

[BBGG]

Just like the three bears scenario, one is too old, one too young, and one is just right!

[dotbed1]

At this point in the process of getting a nominee for president ,Hillary has decided that if she is not the nominee she is going to dirty
Obama as bad as she can.Bill needs to put duck tape on his mouth .What is wrong with him ? He is showing signs of of something serious going on with his mind.

[dotbed1]

Why would CHRIS MATHEWS agree to have McCAIN at an all WHITE college of all places . There was maybe two dark faces in the entire crowd . Who ever decided to do this is not orientated to time and place. At a time that america needs to show that evry one is invited in to the political process. This was a relly dumb move . Americans already know that McCain voted against the King holiday,This fact alone tells us that there is something going on with him about minorities . If he is is nominated he will be president to all americans not just the non minorities.Chris Mathews messed up big time .With the internet and tv plus print presss , we do not miss much .

[HereticalPolemicisit]

The politics of defiant grassroot audacity will overwhelm the politics of guilt, like the weeds overwhelm the manicured lawn. The image of divisiveness amongst we at the grassroots is being replaced by the realization of the predations of those who play on the vindictive smallness of our minds, rather than the greatness of our sharing hearts.

[AnninCA]

I agree, in fact, with your take on this. We shall see. He has more wiggle room than Kerry or Gore. But Hillary is correct, too. He is just another Washington elite.

He has that advantage this year......the tan factor.

I don't trust him anymore than I trusted Bush. That's the truth for me.

He's so not transparent. He's gotten caught, by me, in way too many significant lies.

I am certain of my Fall vote.

I'll be a part of that 30% who exit from the Dem party.

BUT......that doesn't mean I can't see your logic here.

And even agree.

That is why Hillary isn't winning.


So kudos.......for clear thinking.

[ceu]

"He's gotten caught, by me, in way too many significant lies."
How many people have died due to his "many significant lies"?

"I'll be a part of that 30% who exit from the Dem party"

Congratulations, then. You'll be part of a group that might be sentencing this country to four more years of war & death, loss of civil liberties, illegal spying on US citizens, politicalization of the Justice Dept, deepening recession, monumental debt, etc., etc. Sleep well!

[AnninCA]

Actually, I think if you end up bitter because so many like me say good-bye to the Democrats.....and let me remind you.......I've voted straight Dem for 30 years......which certainly supports a lot of othe Democrats other than the president.....

Anyway, you send your complaints to Kennedy.

He's your leader.

Let him know how you feel about driving out long-time Dems.

[rosal]

When you bring the "tan factor" issue, I welcome your idea of exiting the party. The Democrat Party has always been an inclusive party. You might feel more comfortable among Repugs. They don't like people with a "tan factor" either.

[JustMyWords]

"The tan factor"???? Oh, good god almighty.

[ceu]

I thought the American Dream was to work hard, to make money so that we don't live in poverty, to raise our children well, to see them well-educated at the finest schools possible, to see that the next generation has a higher standard of living than ours - and yet, when someone such as Sen. Obama' and his mother & grandparents do just that, he gets called "elitist". Go figure...

[Suprshrink]

He is "nailed elitist" not because of his beginnings but because of how he has developed. He comes across as smug, arrogant, self-absorbed, and elitist. He preaches and pontificates. He does not talk about specifics but preys on the need for others to believe in someone or something. But he is only an abstraction in the end.

[dotbed1]

The problem with the media , they do not want Hillary to win because those on the right hate her , however they do not want Obama to win is because he is of color and the mind set of many americans not of color is they will not vote someone BLACK for president. It is as simple as that . White america still to this day fear the black man for no good reason . It goes all the way back to slavery time.

[JXB]

And another GOP stratagem from 2004 that will not be available against Obama: the Kerry torpedo based on his vote to authorize the use of force against Iraq. "He voted for it, and now he's against it," "Now that the going is getting rough, he's lost his nerve and wants out," etc.

[jcwtts1]

The reality here is that Gore and Kerry were bad candidates. I know that isn't a popular Dem position but it is true. Gore, because of personality and Clinton fatigue, Kerry because of Vietnam and his inability to speak to people rather than at them. Don't get me wrong, I love both guys, voted for both guys, heck if Hillary wins the nomination (impossible now) I was going to write in Gore. The basic facts here are that Obama, rather than being a bad candidate is spectuacular, the best pol since, well Bill Clinton, without the sex scandals holding him back. Obama is going to walk all over McCain... who isn't a small town guy, doesn't sound like a small town guy and has 25 years of senate votes to defend. He's also 72 years old and there is no way a guy calling for 100 years a war wins this against a vibrant eloquent physically fit young man. Against Hillary, yeah McCain has a shot. All the national polls that have an even split with the dems are based on the fact that the dems are split. Once Hill is out of the race Obama wins against McCain by 20 pts. I'd bet my house... well my car.... well my ps3.... well my collection of movie posters on it.

J

[Liberal2]

"...The reality here is that Gore and Kerry were bad candidates...." No, not candidates, they were bad campaigners. Their policy positions look great today.

[Researchguy66]

Thank you. I'm sure senior strategists at the GOP are busily reconstructing their electoral strategy right this minute. Your advice comes at a very fortuitous moment as the GOP has very little experience in winning presidential elections and I'm certain they can use all the help they can get from Democrats.

[boombox]

Sarcasm, the last refuge of the doomed!

[nighthawk808]

The GOP hasn't won a presidential election since 1992. Possibly 2004, but I'm not quite convinced of that one until someone can explain all the oddities in the districts in Ohio that used Diebold machines.

[Hastings]

You radical lefties just don't get it and you never will. Sen. Obama's comments were very condescending, just plain wrong ,and very stupid. The comments were par for the course, however, if one is a left wing elitist socialist who does not understand or worse disdains the very people he or she professes to emphasize with or seek support from. That dosen't make Sen. Obama a bad person. It just means that , discounting the radical left and the rabidly partisan, most Americans will see through his empty rhetoric and view him for who he really is. It is like peeling away the layers of an onion, the more you peel the stronger the odor.

[SamanthaJaneSalem]

First, onions do go great with arugula (which I thought was an island in the Caribbean where the Obamas were vacationing, before this "bitter" story broke out).

Second, Obama isn't a socialist. If he were, he would be proposing that the government take over every industry. In fact he's a little too Wall Street for "radical lefties" such as myself. But you didn't call him a communist, so I'll give you some credit.

Finally, if he recognizes that middle class Americans are struggling, doesn't that make him the anti-elitist? It's elitist to say "No poor person ever gave anyone a job"-- a favorite Republican line. Or "a rising tide lifts all boats"-- as the Clintonites said while they backed another pro-corporate policy. There aren't any ivory towers on the south side of Chicago.

[CalGoldenBear]

Samantha:

As the late Jim Croce sang in "Big Bad Leroy Brown":

"Well the south side of Chicago
"Is the baddest part of town."

Sen. Obama, as a former community activist there, knows and empathizes with the working class, no matter how inelegantly he may occasionally phrase it. (Aren't MOST of us at one time or another at a "loss for words" and perhaps pick the wrong word or phrase?).

He's run a textbook grassroots campaign while Hil has mismanaged a top-down one.

In each case, it's an indicator what each would be like as POTUS.

[cdub1991]

You're a radical leftie? Seriously? I didn't realize there were any left in America; where do I sign up? I'm always amused by those who describe Democrats as left wing. What's called Liberalism in the US is considered Conservativism in Europe.

Back in 92, after Clinton's first victory, a stranger I was talking to said, "Finally there will someone representing the poor in Washington." My response was, "Don't fool yourself. There is still no representation for the poor in Washington." I was so right. There still isn't. I doubt Obama would change that, but he could at least bring a different sensibility to the table.

[daddigrace]

yeah, too bad you can vote for G.W. Bush for a third time.

[LABC]

Blah...bla­h...blah..­.is this the new strategy? Throw words around like socialist and radical like feces to see if it sticks. Dude, I don't know what cul de sac your privileged a** comes from, but there are people hurting in this country. He spoke the truth and that overpaid, pompous media tools have to dissect it in order to make a story and grinning Mary sunshine people like you have to cover your ears and screech "lalalalalala" to drown out the truth is why we are in the mess we are in.

[peskyliberal]

Obama was not putting down people in small towns. Of the three people running for President, he is most in touched. But he label an elistist. Yes he went to Harvard Law and undergrad at Columbia, but on loans and scholarship.

Also, why do small towns continue to vote against their best interest.

Example:
A mining accident kills 10 miners. The owner of the mine busted up the union, so there is no voice for worker safety. The Government no longer inspect mines or even fine the mine owner if they stumble across safety violations. T.V crews are at the accident site around the clock. There are crying families and flags half mast. But no one ask why the mine collapsed. No congressional hearing on why we have more mine accidents than Canada (higher rate of inspection for one). But the same small town will keep voting for politicians that could give a rat's ass about them, because the mining company is give him/her a nice fat check.

America is a great country that being sold out to highest bidder. While at the same time people in small town are told to blame the undocument worker standing at home depot or the latte drinking in San Francisco. Guess what, small town USA falls for it everytime....to the point that the latte drink will stop caring and starting wondering why his/her tax dollars are being used in small towns and not his/her big cities.

[rosal]

Unlike little old, confused, erratic, short fused, McSame? The one that left one wife to marry a millionaire? The one that owns eight houses? Let talk about elitist. The one that thinks people are loosing their homes because they are irresponsible? This will go really well with voters.The one that will start a war on his first month in office, even if he doesn't know who the enemy is?
Only a right wingnut can love this little old man. The odor is on the surface, you don't have to peel anything.