A Vice President Can Make (or Break) McCain and Obama

The rule of thumb in picking vice presidents is that they must do three things. They must balance the ticket, make up a real or perceived deficit that the presidential contender has, and hopefully help him win the presidency, or at the very least don't help him lose it. This rule of vice presidential thumb applies more than ever to presidential contenders Barack Obama and John McCain.

The balance part is easy to handicap for Obama. His pick, first of all must be a he. The talk about Hillary Clinton is just that talk. She is a Northern, moderate Democrat, as is Obama. She is a she with lots of personal and political baggage. She'd pile the X Factor of gender bias to the already worrisome X Factor of racial bias on top of Obama.

He must be an older, centrist to conservative Democrat from the South or the Midwest. The names bandied about, Tim Kaine, Evan Bayh, and Sam Nunn pretty much fit that bill. The others such as Joe Biden and Chris Dodd don't. Bill Clinton is the one recent exception who defied the rule of thumb on balance in picking a VP. Al Gore, like him, was a young, Southern Baptist. It worked because Clinton needed Gore to bolster his pitch that he was not another stereotypical tax and spend, soft on crime, weak on military and national security Democrat. This was the traditional attack point that every Republican going back to Richard Nixon in 1968 hammered their Democratic opponent on.

Obama needs a VP who will be the walking, talking, and voting candidate to foil McCain's biggest attack point against him and that's his razor thin to non-existent credential as a tough guy on national security. A Pew Research Center poll in June found that nearly half of Americans still say that Obama is not tough enough on national security and McCain is. Most voters still rank the economy as their number one worry, and that supposedly works to Obama's favor. But national security is still a worrisome enough issue for Obama to protect his flank on.

The other McCain hammer point is Obama's relative inexperience. The irony is that Bush got the same knock. He did the smart thing, and shut down that avenue of attack when he picked Dick Cheney. Cheney was older, had been in and out of several GOP administrations, and was the consummate party insider.

Obama's vice presidential pick is a high stakes game, but it's also the same for McCain. The balance for him is a younger, proven ideological conservative, from the North, It's also age. This is McCain's X Factor. He will be the oldest president ever on inauguration day. This, and health questions, is a big concern of many voters. That actually works against him with many older voters. In polls and surveys, many have said that they want someone who's physically fit to do the job, and since there's no evidence of an age voting bloc, McCain has to be even more sensitive to the age issue and health concern.

Even more crucial, his pick must be someone who social conservatives like, has confidence in, and can get behind with passion. Though he's done reasonably well in some primaries getting Christian fundamentalist and ultra conservative votes, there's little passion and enthusiasm among them for him. If they stay home in droves on Election Day, his candidacy is mortally wounded.

McCain has said almost nothing about his VP preference. But Mitt Romney is probably the one choice who comes closest to giving McCain the balance that he needs; plus he's a cash cow and with Obama ringing the cash registers that's not an inconsiderable asset to plop on McCain's political balance ledger.

This election the VP is more than just a standard dressing up of the presidential ticket. He must be able to actually help Obama or McCain win. There have been a few times in past elections when VPs have made a difference. Lyndon Johnson in 1960 is the textbook example of that. He brought legislative savvy, he was a Southern then still in good stead, and he could deliver two or three Deep South states. He did his job. Bush Sr. also helped Reagan in 1980 He brought experience, insider connections, and as a transplanted Southerner, the regional balance that Reagan needed. And he was moderate enough to give Reagan a little edge with moderate Republicans.

If Obama or McCain had been able to widen the poll gap comfortably over each other, the vice presidency would still be important, but not as crucial. That hasn't happened and isn't likely to happen. So this election the VP will do something that seldom happens, he will help make or break Obama or McCain.

Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His forthcoming book is How the GOP Can Keep the White House, How the Democrats Can Take it Back (Middle Passage Press, August 2008).

Comments

[arthuride]

The presidency and vice presidency remain a male bastion of stupidity and greed. Obama will most likely pick Edwards (Chet--of Texas) as his VP. He is the least qualified (and I lived in his district for 30 years).

Because of the continuing Hillary-bashing by the Obamacrats who continue to destroy the Democratic Party of Jefferson, Jackson, FDR and others, I will definitely vote against Obama. I am a Democrat, and I have had enough of the Talibanesque terrorism of the Obamacrats to turn me totally against them.

[Oswaldo]

Hillary would of course be the ideal pick and could help help win the general election. But there may be too much anti-Hillary span out there, and people like Hannity would go absolutely ape bashing her. He'd have slightly less to bash about if it's Biden.

[elo]

Back in May, Dr. Tantillo ('the marketing doctor'), who has a blog on branding ( http://blog.marketingdoctor.tv ) did a post arguing against the idea of an Obama-Clinton ticket--positing that from a branding perspective, it makes no sense, and actually wouldn't be a good move for Clinton's brand, either.

"Because of the length of this primary fight, brand identity and loyalty to brand have become central. What this means is that a kind of brand mutual exclusivity has set in."



Not sure if I agree or if this idea still holds at this point, but it is a compelling argument - (and one that I at least think goes a long way toward explaining Obama's hesitation to choose Clinton as his running mate--even if it would go a long way toward building party unity and seemingly clench the general election for Obama.)

Link to the full post: http://blog.marketingdoctor.tv/2008/05/14/marketing-101joint-ticket-makes-little-branding-sense.aspx

[elo]

Back in May, Dr. Tantillo ('the marketing doctor'), who has (a blog on branding) did a post arguing against the idea of an Obama-Clinton ticket--positing that from a branding perspective, it makes no sense, and actually wouldn't be a good move for Clinton's brand, either.

"Because of the length of this primary fight, brand identity and loyalty to brand have become central. What this means is that a kind of brand mutual exclusivity has set in."

From this perspective, at least, Obama should definitely avoid Clinton--even if it would go a long way toward building party unity and seemingly clench the general election for Obama.)

Link to the full post

[bluehorizon]

I'm a big Biden fan, but her's my case against him. He's actually over-qualified. His presence on the ticket will make Obama look weak in comparison, only because Biden has been around so much longer. If I were Obama, that would be the reason I would pass on him and take an unknown like Kaine. At least I would be the MAN.

[Freesia2]

Who are you and what have you done with Earl Hutchinson?

I was afraid to open the article. I feared an HRC for VP infomercial. But I covered my eyes and clicked bravely and when I peeked through my fingers what do I see?:

"The balance part is easy to handicap for Obama. His pick, first of all must be a he. The talk about Hillary Clinton is just that talk. She is a Northern, moderate Democrat, as is Obama. She is a she with lots of personal and political baggage. She'd pile the X Factor of gender bias to the already worrisome X Factor of racial bias on top of Obama. "

Way to go! I'm stunned.

Obama/Biden '08

[ATL78]

AMEN. Nice job Earl!

[CindyV]

It looks like Obama is going to pick Biden. I wonder if someone with decades of "inside the beltway" experience is the Change We've Been Looking For. Sounds like same old, same old to me.

[Fairfloss]

Where do you stand on affirmative action? I would like to see Senator McCain pick the much overlooked, Michael Steele.
Not just because he is a man of color, but because he is a highly intelligent man of color who is discriminated against because of the political party he belongs to.

[slg]

He's gonna get Cheneys' job with all the brand new bells and whistles. Someone tough, world wise, with his humanity intact.

[allonfla]

Yes. I've disagreed with a lot of pundits who keep saying that the VP won't affect the numbers, but when I look at who the candidates are this year, I always thought - Really?

[MBryant]

Recently Veeps haven't mattered much in the elections. Bush the elder beat a great Veep pick Bentsen with Quayle. Clinton picked a clone of himself and beat Jack Kemp which many thought a great choice. Bush the younger picked a terrible campaigner from a small red state or the same big red state he's from - and beat (almost kind'a sort'a) Lieberman -who at the time seemed a great pick. . Another note - Americans don't like to elect Presidents directly from the congress/Senate - they do it only very rarely. This time they have no choice - both parties have nominated Senators. But two Senators could make this worse. A Governor, general, judge, cabinet member, or business leader could be better.

However - this the first time in a very long time that niether candidate is a former Prez or Veep . And both candidates may need ticket balancing.

Obama - older, foreign policy defense experience, Southern white male would help.
Nunn, Kaine, Clark are Southerners... Kaine or Bayh would help with specific states...
Kaine, Clark, Bayh, Sibelious all have non-congressional backgrounds...
Clark is perfect (but it ain't gonna happen) - looks like he's going to pick Biden

McCain - younger - conservative cred but not obnoxious (eliminates Romney) Eastern
or Midwestern (Romney is both) Ridge or Crist would be the state favorites..
Pawlenty probably is the best map to all considerations (or Huckabee, but that won't happen)
looks like he'll pick Romney