Can McKinney Really Hurt Obama?
In June, former Georgia congresswoman Cynthia McKinney publicly hailed Barack Obama's grab of the Democratic presidential nomination. But praising his fete is one thing, trying to beat him out of the presidency is another. And that's her goal as the Green Party's presidential nominee. While it stirred barely a yawn in Democratic Party circles, it stirred speculation whether McKinney can do any real damage to Obama.
At first glance there's no reason to think that she can hurt him. She's not one-time Green Party top candidate Ralph Nader. His credentials in 2000 as a fierce environmental and consumer crusader were impeccable. This earned him the respect and admiration of thousands of impassioned supporters, the ability to tap liberal and progressive money tills, and the grudging respect from some corporate and government officials. He was rarely out of the media eye for years.
Even now the debate still rages whether the votes he got in 2000 actually sunk Democratic presidential contender Al Gore or not. The certainty is that a bigger percent of Nader's votes would have gone to Gore and not Bush if he hadn't been in the race. That could have sealed Florida and the White House for Gore. We'll never know for sure but nearly a decade later many Democrats still blame Nader for Bush.
By contrast McKinney was a six term congresswoman who is still mostly remembered for her shoot from the lip quips, and for creating a ruckus with a capital police officer. She had the ignominious distinction of being bounced from her Congressional seat by an obscure county official.
But this doesn't mean that McKinney can't toss a curve at Obama. She's got energy, charisma, has name recognition and is on the ballot in thirty six states, a handful of them are crucial swing states that Obama and McCain will wage war to win. She is the first black Green Party presidential candidate, and she and her VP pick Rosa Clemente are the first two black women to ever head a political ticket (Clemente is Afro-Puerto Rican). She trudged the campaign highway through thirty states building an organization, drumming up financial support, and lambasting Bush's policies. Then there's the murky, dirty side of politics. Some Republican-affiliated independent committees might be tempted to dump some dollars into her campaign in the swing states to wreak havoc on Obama. That happened in 2004 when Republican donors kicked in cash to Al Sharpton's truncated bid for the Democratic presidential nod. The aim was to create havoc, confusion and division among black voters.
Then there's Rush Limbaugh's windy boast that he launched Operation Choas in the Democratic primaries in the swing states. He implored Republicans to back Clinton to subvert Obama. With McKinney, such a dirty political trick would be to siphon off votes from those progressives and blacks disenchanted with the Democrats and Obama. Even without the dirty tactics, an Obama scandal, a damning revelation, a gaffe, or more flips, reversals, and shifts by him to the right could sour more left side Democrats and Independents on him.
The best thing McKinney has going for her, though, is her 10 point manifesto. This is a free swinging, unabashed anti-war, universal health care, anti corporate, pro-environment and civil liberties and full employment pitch. This could touch a nerve with some voters who express disgust that the gap between Obama and McCain in their positions on issues from Iraq to the economy at times seem paper thin. It could stir some voters fed up with the top heavy parade of corporate officials, lobbyists, and Beltway establishment politicians that dominate Obama and McCain's campaigns to cast a protest ballot for her.
The tantalizing possibility that McKinney might pull two to three percent of the vote nationally is more than a wild stretch. In a close to the wire contest between Obama and McCain this could be just enough to cause the Obama camp jitters as Nader did with Democrats in 2000.
McKinney can sweeten the pot for left side Democrats who may have some qualms about Obama, but are scared stiff of a McCain White House. She can quietly put the word out as some Green Party strategists did in 2000 that disenchanted Democrats in locked down Democrat states have the luxury of voting their conscience with a vote for McKinney. This poses absolutely no risk to Obama's chances of winning their state. But in the swing states, a McKinney vote could pose a risk to Obama. The message then is: Take a deep breath, exhale, and then punch the ticket for Obama. The absolute last thing that McKinney should want is to carry the odious tag of spoiler. Nader, rightly or wrongly, will carry that tag to the end of his days.
The odds are that in this hyper-charged, history making election with much on the line for both parties McKinney's impact and presence will be negligible. But thank goodness for her presence anyway.
Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His forthcoming book is How the GOP Can Keep the White House, How the Democrats Can Take it Back (Middle Passage Press, August 2008).
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Mr. Hutchison,
Is this wishful thinking on your part? You damn well that Cynthia McKinney will have absolutely zero effect in the election. Sheesh!
I might have agreed w/ MissT yesterday. Today I went to see the SF Mime Troop perform in my local park. It was swarming with people recruiting/fund raising for McKinney and they were finding receptive people.
I had just read McKinney's platform in the paper earlier and noticed that she supports reparations for African Americans. I wondered if that might cost Obama some votes in the community that was his personal property during the primaries. Friends pooh poohed me at the Mime Troop performance until I reminded them that both Rev Wright and Rev Pfleger think the AA community deserves reparations. That gave my friends pause.
" Ihad just read McKinney's platform in the paper earlier and noticed that she supports reparations for African Americans. I wondered if that might cost Obama some votes in the community that was his personal property during the primaries.
Sure, it will cost him about 1,000 votes. That's it .
Hell no!
There is a reason we kicked Cynthia out of Dekalb because of her out of pocket comments. She was not the people's candidate. Now she was right on in regards to Bush, but she was too divisive and was known to have made anti-Semitic comments.
Oh, come on! Cynthia was "kicked out of DeKalb" based upon a Republican vote for a much more "centrist" candidate, Denise Majette. They knew that it would never be possibe to elect an actual Republican in that District so they backed a DINO.
Her comments were not anti-semitic as much as they were not favorable towards Israel and Israelis. People should stop the spin.
McKinney can't hurt Obama, and Barr can't hurt McCain. Neither will get significant votes.
Barr can hurt McCain in Georgia though.
I disagree. Here in Georgia, they are both Georgia natives, McKinney will pick up those Dems who are tired of the usual capitulation foisted off upon us as Democratic "progress" and Barr will get the huge Libertarian and disgusted conservative vote. They are going to be a big factor here in Georgia which, I read, was actually going to be in play this year for Dems.
Who cares Georgia is not the only state in the world.
And he's already hurting McCain in AZ...which happens to be is home turf....
I'm not so sure about Barr not hurting McCain, there's a lot of the good old boys who has been shooting off their mouth in the other local paper that under no condition they will vote for McCain....
" It could stir some voters fed up with the top heavy parade of corporate officials, lobbyists, and Beltway establishment politicians that dominate Obama and McCain's campaigns to cast a protest ballot for her."
This whole statement is not correct. Barack doesn't have a bunch of lobbyists on his campaign. He doesn't need it, McClone has enough for both of them.
Who needs the lobbyists when one already has a platform written by them. An insurance industry monopolized health care plan, check. An energy plan apparently writen by big coal and nuclear industry giants, check. An economic plan written by Wall Street, check. Yep, more of the same, with added compassion!
Keep dreamin'! I'm in DeKalb County and NO she can't hurt him. Trust that.
As a former Dekalb countyite, the view from Carroll County says, Yes! She can!!
Elections are not games. THey are not to be treated as sport. Electoins are supposed to be the opportunity for the people to go and vote based upon issues and debate. Aupposed to be. The US gets the Government it deserves.
The mess the country is in now is due to the people who elected to liars and theives that have occupied the White House and Congress over the last 7.5 years. One could give the people a break if they had not re-elected these thugs in 2004.
If you did not vote, you are still responsible. This is a demcocracy. THe people of the US are not victims. We have unlike over half the world the freedom to learn about the issues, discuss them in public forums and then vote.
What do we do? We set home and watch TV. We listen to misinformation people on TV and the Internet. Someone sends an email and we never bother to question it.
If we loose our freedom, we should not point to a distant congress, we need to point into the mirror. We had every opportunity and we blew it.
We get it, Earl. We've gotten it for months. You cannot stand Barack Hussein Obama.
Keep chippin' away . . . Maybe you can effect if you keep trying hard enough.
Just as with Nader, if Obama loses, it will *not* be McKinney's fault.
It will be Obama's fault.
He could be advocating positions that appeal to the left.
Instead, he triangulates.
I suppose the fact that Republican votes are counted twice appeals to him.
Right. His FISA vote drove me back to the Greens. Maybe he'll choose a nice DLCer for his running mate.
His FISA vote, as well as the "capitulation" of other Dems in congress (actually it wasn't really capitulation - that would imply they voted against their values when in truth they have none) drove this Dem-only voter for 20+ yrs away from the Democratic party for good.
I don't know who I'll be voting for - if at all - this year. But it wont be for Dems or Repubs. And that's the fault of the Dems and no one else.
She couldn't win reelection in her own district and for you to even give this women a platform well there's a term for people like you.Welcom
The Republicans in DeKalb County all voted for Denise Majette. It was a coordinated effort that I well remember at the time. Obama may not like stupid wars, yet he is the first in line to fund them. McKinney, on the other hand, was demonized for telling it like it was and was hounded out of office for her efforts.
I both remember and appreciate her efforts to inform the public about what the Bush Administration was up to. It will be nice to show that appreciation when voting against the nominee, who has showed by his actions that he has little problem with advancing such things as the Unitary Executive.
I agree with your assessment of Rep McKinney and am glad that she's on the ticket.
Whether or not she'll tilt the vote is irrelevant to me, as it is to a lot of third party supporters: One can and will always blame voters who didn't vote for their candidate of choice for costing their candidate the election. But as Nader said in 2000 and subsequently, if said candidate can't win, it is their fault. I agree with this up to the following: assuming that the election isn't rigged.
Those who blame Nader for their woes by asserting that he made it close enough to steal in 2000 are in deep denial. First of all, why should we assume that the votes needed wouldn't have been stolen regardless? Secondly, isn't the outrage beyond ALL democratic outrage the fact the the election was stolen in the first place? Why continually rail against a candidate of principle and conscience, the very qualities Senator Obama's supporters foist upon him?
Back to the point on rigging: Isn't the whole system rigged to insure either a Democratic or GOP president? If Senator Obama doesn't beat McCain it'll simply mean that he's been the victim of the same rigged system that, ironically or not, has heretofore been to his benefit.
I voted for Nader in 2000 -- if Nader hadn't run, I would not have voted. I was not going to vote for Gore. The Democrats turn their backs on their base -- and then they wonder why they lose and keep on losing
How'd that vote against Gore work out for you?
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