How President Obama Will Govern

There are two clues as to how likely president-elect Barack Obama will govern. The first is the names Obama insiders have dropped for months as sure bets for his staff and cabinet. The list reads like a who's who of mostly Democratic senators, ex-senators, governors, former Clinton administration officials, bankers and corporate officials. There's even a window dressing Republican (If you can seriously believe Arnold Schwarzenegger for Secretary of Energy) or two tossed into the pack.

They insure that Obama will play it close to the vest when it comes time to deliver on his much promised tax cuts, talks with Iran, a wind down on Iraq troop commitments, putting forth a tame plan for affordable health care and the sub-prime lending crisis and off shore drilling.

The names batted around as possible picks for the Supreme Court are mostly former Clinton officials and judicial appointees. For now this is little more than a name play since the court's three aging liberal justices have given no sign that they are able to step down. And there's absolutely no possibility that W. Bush and Bush Sr.'s four Horsemen picks will leave and risk giving Obama a chance to replace them.

Obama's cautious baby steps a nod to conservative Republicans. They are and will stay deeply suspicious that he is too liberal, even radical, and as they charged in campaign hit ads too risky. They will watch hawk like for any hint of a tilt to minorities, environmentalists, pro choice, pro ACLU, and gun control advocates and any group deemed anti-business.

His extreme caution can also be directly traced back to how he dealt with policy issues during his years in the Illinois state legislature. During the campaign McCain and GOP conservatives slapped him with the tag of the most liberal Democrat of all Democrats. This is inaccurate and deliberately misleading. The most cursory read of his record, as well as a fine comb of his speeches, statements, and interviews, shows that he never claimed bragging rights as the "most liberal Democratic senator." He is what he's always been, namely a pragmatic, centrist, Democrat who when circumstances dictate will conciliate conservatives on a hot button issue that might cause political trouble.

Obama's voting record in the Illinois state legislature gave a strong hint of that. He got high marks from liberal groups on votes on environmental, gun control, abortion, civil liberties protections, and ethics reform. But he also deftly ducked taking positions on some of the same issues when they could stir rancor and were potentially polarizing.

He voted present (i.e. no position) on bills that would have prohibited a partial birth abortion procedure, reduced penalties for first offense for carrying a concealed weapon, mandatory prosecution for firing a gun near school grounds, that protected the privacy of sex abuse victims, prohibited strip clubs and other adult establishments from being within 1,000 feet of schools, churches, and daycares, and two parental notification abortion bills. Illinois legislators vote present when they are uncertain or have qualms about some points about a bill. Moderate Democrats in the Illinois legislature vote present when they have reservations about a conservative tinged law and order bill. They worry that by opposing it they will be typed as soft on crime. That would enrage conservatives. Legislators also vote present when they don't want to go on the record against a bill that they oppose.

During his stint in the legislature Obama often used and rarely gave a reason why he abstained from voting.

Whatever his motive for not taking a firm stand on these issues, and not spelling out the reason why, it helped burnish his credentials with conservative Republicans and right leaning Democrats as a man willing to compromise even conciliate on big ticket issues that conservatives routinely support or oppose.

It is wise that he didn't claim to be a top liberal. Still, the fact that he isn't won't ease the angst of the legion of Obama backers who read more into him and his record than was ever there. He will give the look and feel of a radical departure from Bush, and that alone will bring joy--for a while. But the hard reality of White House governance won't be any different for him than any other president.

As president he will be pulled and tugged at by corporate and defense industry lobbyists, the oil and nuclear power industry, government regulators, environmental watchdog groups, conservative family values groups, moderate and conservative GOP senators and house members, foreign diplomats and leaders. They all have their priorities and agendas and all will vie to get White House support for their pet legislation, or to kill or cripple legislation that threatens their interests.
The time tested rule is that liberal and moderate Democrats run to the left and move to the center when running for the White House, and stay there when they get in the White House. Obama will be no exception to that rule.

Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His latest book is The Ethnic Presidency: How Race Decides the Race to the White House (Middle Passage Press, February 2008).

Comments

[mindact]

Let's clear something up. It's true that Obama is not a wild eyed liberal, but more of a pragmatist. however, the insuination that he's willing to compromise on big ticket items or he's unwillingness to take a stand on serious issues is false pure and simple. The only reason republicans can gain some traction on painting him as the most liberal senator is because he's taken a lot of very liberal positions.

however, what sets Obama apart is his willingness to listen to the other side and not assume that he has a monopoly on the right answers. That's what strong leaders are made of. yes he will compromise on some certain things to move an overaching agenda forward. Case in point FISA.

The story here is that you're still aggrieved that Obama beat Clinton. You spent months disparaging him and believing that he couldn't win the election, just like Mr Steele. now we're at the cusp of something tectonic about to happen and you're on the outside looking in. You need to give it up and move on....

[Darthwave]

For once this election cycle I finally agree with you Mr. Hutchinson. Frontline (http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/choice2008/view/) has a great doc that delves into how President Obama might lead.