McCain's Romney Blunder

If Republican contender John McCain loses two things did him in. One he couldn't control. That was the economy, not its collapse, but when it collapsed. In a look at how six of eight presidents fared since 1948 when the economy went on the rocks or appeared to go on the rocks, three were beaten and three beat back their challengers. If the economy went bad toward the end of a president's term voters were much more likely to blame and punish not just the president but also his party.

McCain was not Bush as he pointedly reminded Obama in their last debate. But he was the GOP presidential standard bearer, and he had to take the heat for the GOP's perceived economic sins. That hurt and hurt bad, and McCain's slogans and shouts about country first, and his subtle and open knocks at Bush and the GOP couldn't change that.

However, he could do something about his vice-presidential pick. But what did he do. He picked an untutored political novice for his VP who turned out to be SNL laughingstock fodder. He gambled that she could bag a big swatch of disgruntled Hillary Democratic women, rev up the Christian fundamentalists, and burnish his claim to be the Washington outsider. He left Vegas with his pockets picked clean on that one.

This was the biggest single reason why long time rock solid GOP Party regulars and a slew of Reagan and W Bush and Bush Sr. appointees did the unprecedented. They jumped ship to back Obama.

That never would have happened if McCain had done the personally smart and politically sensible thing and picked Mitt Romney as his VP choice.

The reasons for Romney went way beyond McCain's image problem and party doubts. He like Obama sold himself as the change guy who could go to Washington cut the cronyism, bureaucratic and congressional inertia, and restore public confidence. Despite all the maverick talk McCain could not shake his image as the walking embodiment of the much loathed Washington insider establishment.

Romney could have made a credible case that as a businessman and a true fiscal conservative who did business the right way, and that's not through banking, stock and brokerage conniving, speculation, wheeling dealing, and fraud. He could have helped ease the fears and the banking and big businesses of even more shocks, meltdowns, and instability. Since much of investor panic even terror is more psychology and perception of more economic doom, this would have been a major GOP and voter selling point.

Far more than McCain, Romney would have been able to make a credible case that he was not a partisan GOP hack but a Republican who actually had to embrace bipartisan politics as governor of top heavy Democratic Massachusetts who reached across the aisles to Democrats to get anything done. Getting a model health care package was a prime example of that. This would have been another colossal selling point on the campaign trail to voters.

Palin was plopped on the ticket to get social conservatives to flood the polls on Election Day. The problem is that Palin as events amply showed was a social conservative with a mini-telephone book of negatives and what she gave she also took away. Romney is a social conservative, but he's also one that social conservatives like, have confidence in, and would also have gotten behind albeit if not exactly with passion. But that would've mattered little since they had little passion for McCain. And it was the wildest stretch to think that social conservatives en masse would've voted for Obama, or would have stayed home. In the end Romney may not have been Bush, but he wasn't McCain either, and with no where else for conservatives to go, Romney would have been a plus with them.

Romney was a decade younger than McCain. Age, as race with Obama, was incessantly gabbed about as a great X Factor, for McCain. A final election days CNN poll showed that race was less a problem for Obama than originally feared. Yet a big percentage of voters still said they had huge reservations about McCain, because of his age, his health. That fear led back to Palin. There was stark horror among untold numbers of voters at the thought of having her a heartbeat away from the presidency. Romney would have done a lot to take the age and health fear offs the liability table. That would have even been more the case since the most successful presidents have been governors (with one very current exception). They bring the administrative and management skills crucial to the office.

This, of course, is just another of the great what ifs or better what might have beens of campaign 2008. Romney was not the choice, and what has to be an even dumber move apparently was not asked to play any substantial role in the campaign. That just compounded McCain's Romney blunder.

Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His new book is The Ethnic Presidency: How Race Decides the Race to the White House (Middle Passage Press, February 2008).

Comments

[tbone99]

Romney might have been backed by the Repug elites , but the evangelicals and redneck culture would still have been cool towards him , while Palin is a big hit.Although Mccain may slink away ( fingers crossed) her trajectory is just beginning. Looks like this highlights a real fracture in their party that the Dems would be wise to exploit.

[Shabba]

Plus Romney would have had a better chance of delivering Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Michigan, each of which has considerably more electoral votes than Alaska.

[redsongia]

Romney would have delivered Michigan with a bow. Probably not Mass, but maybe New Hampshire.

Most importantly, Romney has an education and knows not to violate ethics laws every time he sets out to do something.

He does have all the same weaknesses as McCain however, in that he's only pro-life in election years and was for gay marriage before he was against it.

Still, it was funny to watch him at the RNC convention try his best to denounce the east-coast, ivy league elites...like him.

[jayburd]

Wow, I actually agree with Earl. This is turning into a weird day.

If Romney had been the VP pick this race would be pretty tight going towards the finish line.

[DennyCrane]

Romney might not have guaranteed a McCain win, but unlike Palin, he wouldn't hurt the ticket either. The first rule about picking a VP is don't pick someone who'll hurt the ticket. Joe Biden isn't an exciting pick, but he doesn't hurt the ticket. I can't imagine a lot of people, even the PUMA folks, deciding not to vote for Obama because of Biden being his running mate. But plenty of people are afraid to vote for McCain precisely because of his age and the risk that Palin would be in charge.

[redsongia]

I think Joe Biden did alot to help deliver Pennsylvania and Michigan as well. He's a good campaigner. He connects with blue collar workers better than Obama in some cases.

[Indie2008]

Romney only confirmed the impression by many that he was the proverbial empty suit by robotically shilling for McCain when it wasn't necessary. He could have better positioned himself for the future by distancing himself from McCain's ugly, disorganized campaign.

[Marlyn]

"if McCain had done the personally smart and politically sensible thing and picked Mitt Romney as his VP choice." ???

Do you mean Romney who would DOUBLE the size of GITMO?

[MajorKong]

McCain fell back on Karl Rove's "Play to the base and only to the base" strategy. That might have worked in 2004 but conditions on the ground are a lot different in 2008.

[glesslib]

And what everyone forgets about Karl Rove is that he was totally wrong about 2006, when he predicted that the Republicans would hold both houses of Congress. In most cases, the majority of people remember the mistakes a person makes. In Rove's case, they only remember the scenario he has created over the years that he is an infallible political genius, when he is merely a consummate "dirty tricks" artist.

[Maisey]

Fortunately we got a glimpse of what a poor decision maker McCain is prior to the election.

[swift goat pet for truth]

Yeah. But McCain and Romney hate each other.

[glesslib]

So did Kennedy and Johnson, but Kennedy won in a squeaker. There is a lesson there. I'm so glad that McCain is no student of history.

[S1m0n]

And by now, so do Palin and McCain.

[redsongia]

And by now, McCain has become the kind of campaigner Romney was in the primary, so he has no more cause to hate him.

[proctolsigmoid]

Maybe the strategy was to hitch the wagon up to defending the visceral notions which fortify the empty , rehetorical nature of politics . Avoid the complex issues of planning and development . Point out the failings and shortcomings of the opponent , seldom anchored in reality as much as the gut hatred which has filled the chests rather than challenging the intellect . Maybe the pick for VP was out of a Karl Rove playbook which anticipates the naivety of the lumpen population used in the past with great success. Appeal to the fear which underlies the impending changes which will inevitably grip America and the World. That fear driven tactic has worked well for the Republicans for eight years. I think the American people have more courage than the Republicans give them credit . They offer up a team of horses old tired and proven unworthy . The Republicans have relied on the fear of the American people , and seem to have forgotten their anger.

[pottery]

Personally, anyone but Palin would have fared better during the economic crisis of the past month. Making a call for the long run, as Obama did rather than to excite a base that had nowhere to go on Nov. 4th was foolish. The wisdom of the choice, Ridge, Romney or Lieberman would have been born out. He ran a short-sighted campaign based on Obama not being American enough.

Remember those Clinton campaign documents. What do you want to bet they were plants? When it was noted that dissension in the ranks prevented them from running with the Obama isn't one of people, or Obama's too strange strategy, it proved too tasty a morsel. A natural strategy for Rovian proteges. They thought it would be a cakewalk. Fatal.

[yngskywlkr]

The reason, Romney would still not have been a good pick are following

1) He would have been too "liberal" for the base, (forget the whole fact that he might even have had a chance with the economy) I would think being governor of Massachussets disqualifies you for anything in the republican party.

2) His mormonism would have been a great liability also for the base. Remember that's what did him in, at the primaries.

That been said, am sure he still would have been popular with the independents. So in short, it really would not have made a difference for the McCain campaign.

[Fudgefase]

Bottom line for the 'base'. You vote for your own guys or you let the opposition get in. They should have bitten the bullet.

[jobecky20]

I actually think Huckabee destroyed Romney's chances during the primaries...taking votes away from him. If Huckabee wasn't in the race, Romney would have been the Republican nominee. He will make an appearance in 2012.

[gisellestwocents]

Face it, McCain probably didn't choose Romney or Lieberman; because TPTB didn't think that they would appeal to "the base." Note that Gore didn't have such qualms/advice with respect to Lieberman in 2000. But then, I'm just speculating. I could be totally wrong, but I don't think so...

McCain could have chosen Hucakabee. But he's a guy and they were going after Hillary supporters­....revers­e sexism/elitism?

[Doofus]

The factionalism that is rampant in the GOP is probably the root cause.
Palin was in effect a desperate choice. For some non-obvious reason,
the faction that likes Romney doesn't like Huckabee, and vice versa, so
they picked Palin. Go figure. There are also deep-set feelings that keep
them from picking Lieberman, not the least from the fact that he is an
ex-Democrat, if not still a closet Demo. Similar reasons for not picking
Lindsey Graham, probably. Their factionalism had to do them in finally.

[Doofus]

Similar reasons? Well, there is the 'closet' thing
anyway. Similar in the 'deep-set feelings' sense.

[glesslib]

Lieberman reminds me of the old saying about having an affair with a married person.
"Someone who will cheat WITH you will cheat ON you." That's what the Republicans see when they look at Lieberman....a person who has no core ethics.

[apoyo]

Put the issue of race to bed. If Obama had a race problem he wouldn't be the Democratic nominee and he wouldn't have practically the whole world supporting him.

[timmmahhhh]

More importantly he wouldn't have the majority of the United States supporting him. I think the world is still in shock that Kerry wasn't elected in 04, not a racism issue but definitely an America doesn't think like the rest of the world issue.

For all of the articles I have seen on the Bradley Factor (people that tell pollsters they would vote for Obama but then voted for Hillary) I am starting to see articles on the reverse Bradley Factor (they tell their friends they would never vote for a black but then poll for Obama). Sad to say but I really believe that the states that McCain has are your most racist areas - the deep south and the rural western states.

[MJJM]

McCain's pick of Palin is the dumbest decision any Presidental Candidate has ever made!!

He lost the election and his chance to be PRESIDENT because he lack principles and judgement and smarts. GOD exposed McCain to the world.

[jobecky20]

He hasn't lost yet. Complacency is a terrible thing...don't let it happen!