Obama Should Beg Bill to Help Him

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama did the smart thing when he eagerly grabbed at Bill Clinton's invitation to have lunch with him. Now he should do the even smarter thing and implore him on bended knees if necessary to stump for him. Despite poll numbers that show Clinton's popularity is down with Democrats, and that he is damaged goods with party regulars and the media, Clinton is still hugely popular with a wide segment of the voters who Obama needs to win the White House. They are white male, centrist to conservative independents. They make up a substantial number of voters in the South and the Heartland states. With Republican rival John McCain's resurgence in the polls and on the campaign trail, and the X Factor of his VP Pick Sarah Palin to contend with, Obama is now in even bigger trouble with these voters.

The brutal truth is that Obama can't win without them. He needs them to snatch one, but better two, of the core GOP states from its hip pocket to give him a real shot at the White House win.
In presidential elections stretching back four decades, the South and the Heartland states have guaranteed Republican Presidents Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and Bush Sr. the decisive margin of victory over their Democrat opponents. Without their solid backing in 2000, Democratic Presidential contender Al Gore would have easily won the White House, and the Florida vote debacle would have been a meaningless sideshow. This election is no different. Polls show that Republican rival John McCain runs strong among white male independents and could make inroads among disgruntled Hillary Democrats in these states. Bill could be Obama's trump card to make sure that doesn't happen.

But it's with the white South where he could be especially valuable. In the 1992 and 1996 presidential campaigns, Clinton grabbed two Deep South States and four upper South states back from the Republicans. Though blacks voted overwhelmingly for him, white votes put him over the top in the Southern states he won. If Clinton can help deliver his home state of Arkansas, and possibly Louisiana where Democrats have run well, he could break the Republican's vise-like grip on the South.

Clinton didn't crack the iron clad Republican grip on the white South by charging the barricades on civil rights. He stole a big page from the Republican Southern Strategy playbook and talked strong defense, promised more police, and pushed the economic resuscitation of mid-America. This non-racial, centrist pitch did not threaten or alienate the white middle-class, and blunted the standard Republican rap that Democrats pander to special interests, i.e. minorities.

Obama has kept his distance from Bill. But he didn't distance himself from his winning strategy. He has tried to outflank McCain on the GOP and Clinton's signature issues of military preparedness, national security, and toughness on terrorism, taxes and government spending. He has been virtually mute on issues such as criminal justice system reform, failing inner-city public schools, racial profiling, affirmative action, and the HIV/AIDS plague.

Bill gave Hillary a huge boost in her winning efforts in the Border States and even in her losing effort in North Carolina. He barnstormed through mostly white rural, small towns, and farm countryside touting Hillary. The crowds were big everywhere he went. His star power hadn't diminished one bit with these voters. These are also the voters who in exit polls who expressed the greatest hostility to Obama. A significant number flatly said and still say that that they won't vote for him. Bill wouldn't instantly change their minds. But a strong appeal from him to them on behalf of Obama might soften the hostility -- at least in some. In a tight race in those states, that would be a big plus for Obama.

It could also make a difference with wary Hillary Democrats. Despite Hillary's unconditional pledge to Obama to do whatever she can to help elect him, many of her impassioned backers still give him the cold shoulder. Polls still find that more of them say they wouldn't support him. A vigorous push by Bill for Obama might change some of their minds about him too.

Democratic presidential contenders Al Gore and John Kerry did not ask or encourage Clinton to help them in their campaigns. If either one had carried just one or two of the Southern states or Border States that Clinton won, say West Virginia and Georgia, they would have won the White House. They didn't, and ignoring Bill as it turned out was a politically dumb move. The lesson from recent Democratic presidential failures is that you don't turn down a helping hand from Bill.
If Obama reads the sorry history of recent Democratic presidential failures right he won't turn down Bill's helping hand. If he really reads that history right he'll beg Bill to give him that helping hand.

Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His new book is The Ethnic Presidency: How Race Decides the Race to the White House (Middle Passage Press, February 2008).

Comments

[balkanboy]

How true your analyses rings! Alas, to say in Latin: "Alea jacta est" - the javelin has been thrown, and some wrong choices have been made already. In 62 days there will be a crowd of analysts looking for the reasons Obama lost it. You are saying it here, and if he can't hear it - what a pity for all of us!

[pottery]

You are correct EOF. He can't quite comprehend the culture avalanche he's about to endure. He, like Democrats before him, is trusting that the American people are no longer susceptible to the Big lie and will finally realize who's been hitting them over the head. I don't think so any longer.

Let's not be naive here. Pucker up Barrack!

[Jay20]

I think you hit the nail on the head Earl. This reason is why we should have nominated Hillary. Other Dems like Obama, Gore, and Kerry are so jealous of Bill that they're too good to ask him. Hello, he won 2 elections!

And to all you Republicans and Obamalites who will say "oh Ross Perot did it," I'll remind you that exit polls showed pro-choice pro-gay anti-NAFTA Perot took equally in both 1992
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CE0DB1F3FF936A35752C1A964958260 and 1996 http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/elections/natl.exit.poll/index1.html

[BottomLine2008]

Oh, get over it.

[toochie50]

electoral-vote.com:
OBAMA: 301
Mc: 224

that's all we need folks - 270 to win!!

fivethirtyeight.com
OBAMA: 303.1
MC: 234.9

[arthuride]

Obama's selection of Biden, not Clinton, was his undoing and will cost him the presidency. Obama is now 4 points behind McCain-Palin, and their radical right agenda with its saber aimed directly at the heart of Roe v. Wade will bring together the radical religious right that has jettisoned Bush I and II and Reagan into power and the destruction of USA civil liberties and the freedom of the world. The Democrats will lose, and with their loss the world will lose, too--for McCain-Palin are so far right-winged that Hitler looks now like a liberal.

[jake angel]

I am Hillar democrat (may be independent)

My hope, McCain becomes President for 4 hrs with DEM congress.
His weak presidency will end in 4 years with come back of Hillary in 2012.

I will not forgive the disrespect and arrogance shown by Obama supporters during Primary.

BTW, I am too highly educated and well read to get scared by DEM's Rove VS Wade fear tactics.

[RiseHillary]

The important thing is to work for local congressional candidates to give the Dems a majority in both houses, and a veto proof majority would be icing on the cake. I have been advocating for people to ease up on donations to Mr0 and donate to their local congressional races. 0-man has enough $millions to compete with McCain's public financing of $89 million.

Electing a Dem majority in the Congress is essential. A majority in the Senate would allow the Judiciary Committee to stop any really conservative judge from getting out of committee and having a Senate floor vote.

[ethel08]

"He stole a big page from the Republican Southern Strategy playbook and talked strong defense, promised more police, and pushed the economic resuscitation of mid-Americ­a."

He also played the role of Bubba.

This continued reporting on Clinton is bewildering. No one is asking Lieberman why he still stumps for McCain, even though McCain rebuked Joe due to the threats from his own party. No one follows the Ron Paul revolution. But people love Clinton drama.

It's in the best interest of HRC to get a Democrat in the White House, and like it or not, the only Democrat running for president this year is Obama. While citizens may not like it when one party controls both the Congress and the presidency, the party in power does. It will be easier for her to continue to gain stature and get important legislation passed if McCain is not in the White House. I think she is too smart to risk a Republican in the White House, potentially for 8 more years.

If you think she will run in '12: she likely realizes that the Democratic party does not usually nominate a person who lost in the primaries the last time. There's little indication that '12 would be any different, and I think that HRC is unlikely to bet so much of her political future on a gamble.

Some supporters remain upset. But I think HRC is too smart to let resentment thwart her ambitions, whatever they may be.

[RiseHillary]

If you think she will run in '12: she likely realizes that the Democratic party does not usually nominate a person who lost in the primaries the last time."

That applies to candidates for president who lose like Gore and Kerry.....­.not primary participants; so this is obama's one and only shot. Loses this and he goes back to the Senate as just another jr senator...­.........l­ike Kerry did. It is too bad because I think with some experience which would enhance his qualifications, in time, I think he could have been the first black president.­....and probably a great one. Too bad he was so audaciously ambitious before he was ready.

[munster]

You know, you can't have it both ways. During the campaign, I could not believe how terrible Obama supporters treated Hillary. I had to stop coming here to read posts it depressed me so. Then Obama wins the nomination thanks to the media. Hillary then indorses Obama and still his supporters screamed that she didn't do enough, his supporters didn't want to help pay her campaign debt. Obama's smart choice would have been to pick Hillary for VP (not that I don't like Joe Biden), but Obama supporters screamed at that as well (didn't want the Clinton machine involved in his presidency). But now because he is losing, everyone realizes the only way for Obama to win is to get the Clintons to win it for him!! I say tough!! I hate to see another 4 years of Bush but Obama people didn't play this smart and they will lose. I'm a Hillary suppoter as you probably guessed by now, but I'am thinking of voting for McCain/Palin myself.

[c64audio]

> I'am thinking of voting for McCain/Palin myself.

In God's name, why? If McCain/Palin get in, there may not be enough of a world left in 2012 to be the leader of, what with the energy wars, global warming, economic collapse, etc. Are you willing to be directly responsible for that because you're a bit upset? This is good vs evil, survival vs catastrophe and everyone's treating it as a sport. Not surprising, but unbelievably frustrating to watch.

[BigBen]

I cannot believe that an Obama fan is playing the Good versus Evil game.Remin­ds me of the Us versus Them games played by Bush. Is he so desperate that he wants to frighten us into voting for him just like Bush did in 04?We are not directly responsible for anything.I voted for Hillary so as not to be rolling the dice.You voted to roll the dice.I voted for Hillary because Obama was a fairy tale.You voted for the fairy tale.I voted for Hillary because she could beat the Republicans; you voted for Obama because .....you finish it.Now you want me to support you. Are you crazy or what?

[balkanboy]

How true what you are saying! And how sad for all of us! If more mistakes to come the Dem party should take a serious look at itself, really. See Mike Moore's newest book!

[balkanboy]

All you say is so true, it hurts! But please don't vote for McBush! Please! Drop the soap opera they are staging and see what's ahead, please? A military junta with Sara, Cheney and McBush in the top seats is not appealing.

[SpoxLogic]

Heck no. Ask for his help and advice? Yes, definitely. Beg him for his help or advice? Again. Heck No!!
Obama is suppoed to be going for the most powerful postiion in the world, you don't get there by begging someone for help.
If Bill Clinton doesn't want to help Obama for the good of the party, then the party will see it and Bill's legacy is as good as dead.
So, no begging.

[BigBen]

So please no threatening.

[allonfla]

Come on, Earl, give Obama some credit. Of course he has and will ask the Clintons for help. He doesn't need to beg however, Bill just needs to do it if wants to win back the favor of the public or even just the Black public. He's not stupid, he knows what's up.

[BigBen]

Why would he want to win the favor of turncoats?

[balkanboy]

Bill is Big and does not need the favor of the public, my friend! He will give his blessing to those who ask for it properly, you see. As much as I like him, Obama still thinks he is invulnerable and does not need Hillary of Bill. In 62 days we may all be analyzing the reasons for the failure. This will be the big one.