Obama Should Implore Bill to Campaign for Him

It's hard to know whether presumed Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama was thrilled or shuddered when former President Bill Clinton told reporters he'd campaign for him "whenever he asks." During his heated primary battles with Hillary Clinton, Obama spent almost as much time jawing at Bill as he did at Hillary. The difference was the sharp words between the two had a hard, hostile edge to it that went beyond the typical political sparring that candidates engage in during hard campaigns. The ill-will didn't totally end with Hillary's defeat, nor even after Bill and Obama met in Washington. Bill's subsequent perfunctory endorsement of Obama didn't have much ring or conviction to it.

But Obama should ignore the tepid endorsement. He should also ignore the poll numbers that show Clinton's popularity is down with Democrats, and that he is damaged goods with party regulars and the media. Clinton is still hugely popular with a wide segment of the voters who Obama needs to win the White House. They are white male, centrist to conservative independents. They make up a substantial number of voters in the South and the Heartland states.

If Obama can snatch one, but better two, of those states from the GOP's hip pocket this will give him a real shot at the White House win. In presidential elections stretching back four decades, the South and the Heartland states have guaranteed Republican Presidents Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and Bush Sr. the decisive margin of victory over their Democrat opponents. Without their solid backing in 2000, Democratic Presidential contender Al Gore would have easily won the White House, and the Florida vote debacle would have been a meaningless sideshow. This election is no different. Polls show that Republican rival John McCain runs strong among white male independents and could make inroads among disgruntled Hillary Democrats in these states. Bill could be Obama's trump card to make sure that doesn't happen.

But it's with the white South where he could be especially valuable. In the 1992 and 1996 presidential campaigns, Clinton grabbed two Deep South States and four upper South states back from the Republicans. Though blacks voted overwhelmingly for him, white votes put him over the top in the Southern states he won. If Clinton can help deliver his home state of Arkansas, and possibly Louisiana where Democrats have run well, he could break the Republican's vise-like grip on the South.

Clinton didn't crack the iron clad Republican grip on the white South by charging the barricades on civil rights. He stole a big page from the Republican Southern Strategy playbook and talked strong defense, promised more police, and pushed the economic resuscitation of mid-America. This non-racial, centrist pitch did not threaten or alienate the white middle-class, and blunted the standard Republican rap that Democrats pander to special interests, i.e. minorities.

Though Obama has kept his distance from Bill, he hasn't distanced himself from his winning strategy. He has tried to outflank McCain on the GOP and Clinton's signature issues of military preparedness, national security, and toughness on terrorism. He has been virtually mute on issues such as criminal justice system reform, failing inner-city public schools, racial profiling, affirmative action, and the HIV/AIDS plague.

Bill gave Hillary a huge boost in her winning efforts in the Border States and even in her losing effort in North Carolina. He barnstormed through mostly white rural, small towns, and farm countryside touting Hillary. The crowds were big everywhere he went. His star power hadn't diminished one bit with these voters. These are also the voters who in exit polls expressed hostility to Obama. A significant number flatly said that that they wouldn't vote for him. Bill wouldn't instantly change their minds. But a strong appeal from him to them on behalf of Obama might soften the hostility -- at least in some. In a tight race in those states, that would be a big plus for Obama.

It could also make a difference with wary Hillary Democrats. Despite Obama's much touted unity rally with Hillary in June, many of her impassioned backers still give him the cold shoulder. A CNN poll after their unity event found that more of them still said they wouldn't support him. A vigorous push by Bill for Obama might change some of their minds about him too.

Democratic presidential contenders Al Gore and John Kerry did not ask or encourage Clinton to help them in their campaigns. If either one had carried just one or two of the Southern states or Border States that Clinton won, say West Virginia and Georgia, they would have won the White House. They didn't, and ignoring Bill as it turned out was a politically dumb move. The lesson from recent Democratic presidential failures is that you don't turn down a helping hand from Bill.
Obama shouldn't either. He should not ask but implore Bill to campaign for him.

Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His forthcoming book is How the GOP Can Keep the White House, How the Democrats Can Take it Back (Middle Passage Press, August 2008).

Comments

[Freesia2]

If Bill Clinton meant it, when he said he was on ready to help whenever Obama told him what he'd like him to do, then fine. The pressure that came with campaigning for his wife probably contributed to his primary gaffes, but when Bill is having a good day, he's good at speaking to small town America and making them comfortable.

That it needs to be sincere, well "sincere" is a misleading word. I would find it unbelievable and disingenuous if he suddenly announced he and Obama were best friends. But he doesn't have to sincerely like Obama, he just has to sincerely believe and say on the stump that Obama deserves the White House and will serve it better than McCain. And tell the people why. That will be sincere enough and will read more true.

But another misleading word there in the heading is "implore". If you mean enthusiastically request Bill's presence, fine. But it shouldn't translate to "begging". Obama shouldn't have to beg. There are too many of the old guard of his party who jumped straight into doing all they all could and will continue to do so even if the Clintons hold back. There should be no groveling.

[kaygee]

Let him lose on his own. That's the only way to get voters to wake up from this bandwagon trip.

[pottery]

"Whenever he asks," should have been 'wherever he asks.' I think he could use the Clinton's support. They have real pull with certain voters, enthusiastic pull and influence in much of the country. He'll be a sucker if he kisses bill's arse, and that sounds like what bill has in mind.

However, his lingering animosity will not translate into a true conversion of those people who think his skin color more important than his leadership skills and ideas for moving this country in a more positive direction. It will ring hollowly. Bill will spend much of the time asking the audience to harken back to the days he was CIC, we were not at war, and the economy was good. In the end, many will relish the opportunity to see a favorite former president, and still vote for one of their own, the guy they'd want to have sitting next to them on the bar stool.

Being the pragmatic man he is, maybe Senator Obama will find a way to just 'blow it a kiss.' That's a compromise he could live with.

Personally, I think he can win with only Hillary campaigning for him, and let bill go back to raising money for his foundation. He's doing well enough so far.

[jungpatawan]

Oh, Earl.

You're still playing with the old electoral map, as did Gore and Kerry. Right now, Obama has picked up CO IN IA MT NV NM & OH from 2004. He's tied in North Dakota and Virginia. And the numbers get even better for him when you factor in Bob Barr.

He can outspend, outtalk, and outhustle McCain all through the 50 states.

Know who pointed this out nearly 4 months ago, on April 2nd? I DID!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chip-collis/obamas-got-game_b_94718.html

How about that! I predicted EXACTLY how Obama's strategy would work, and every indication of REALITY is bearing my prediction out. AMAZING what you can do if you're a REAL political analyst, who observes facts and trends and makes predictions, instead of drawing conclusions first and then trying to backfill the facts. Kind of like going to school first and THEN getting a diploma.

That's okay, NOW you've been schooled.

JP

[arthuride]

The arrogance and psuedointellectuality of jp is astounding--and is one of the major factors turning off those who would support Obama if he could see past their rosy scenarios and accept reality and the need for diversity. As a Iowa County Democratic Chair, I did not support Obama, but after Hillary's gracious speech, I decided I would--reluctantly--as my county will definitely not vote for Obama at this time, and contrary to JP, Iowa is not yet in Obama's column. After reading this self-righteous egoistic comment, I am officially withdrawing my support from Obama, as I fear there are too many JPs and thus have doomed the Democratic Party. To quote JP: "JP, NOW you've been schooled"--and flunked.

[Freesia2]

I don't know if JP is self-righteous or not. But even if he were, what has that got to do with Obama? Why would a JP cause you to withdraw your support? It doesn't change a thing about Obama.

I can only guess you were looking for an excuse anyway. You said you didn't support Obama, but after HIllary's gracious speech you "reluctantly" did.

You mention your fear that there are too many JPs. So what? There might be 20 there might be only JP. Are you looking for a candidate or the right group of supporters to join? I am not being sarchastic. It's something I've noticed about HIllary supporters and I honestly don't understand. I am an Obama supporter because I like Obama. I don't like all of his supporters. What difference does that make?

It could be turned around (and again I am not being sarchastic) and someone could say that there are too many arthurides who choose a candidate by the supporters, and arthuride is going to doom the democratic party.

Just asking. What difference does it make what JP is? Do me a favor though? It's been a little bit of a rough day so if you're just going to come back and be hateful because I've hit a nerve, just don't answer the question. I just thought I'd ask.

[24hrlib]

It seems if Obama truly understands and wants, as he says, unity. Then yes, he should 'implore' President Clinton to campaign for him. He can clinch a niche of support Obama has had a difficult time reaching. Older Democratic Party members who loved and wanted another Clinton presidency.

[RedDogBear]

"But Obama should ignore the tepid endorsement. He should also ignore the poll numbers that show Clinton's popularity is down with Democrats, and that he is damaged goods with party regulars and the media."
Why should he ignore all this?
"Clinton is still hugely popular with a wide segment of the voters who Obama needs to win the White House. "
And you know this how? Reasonable people give justification for their arguments. You cite a bunch of facts and then claim they aren't true but that Clinton is still hugely popular because you say so. Obama would only harm his chances by looking as if he is "imploring" Clinton's help or by having Clinton create more MSM non-story stories through luke warm support.

[texanna]

I completely agree with your opinion about how Pres. Clinton could be useful to Sen. Obama's campaign. I don't think that Sen Obama will be able to bring himself to sincerely solicit Pres. Clinton's help, though. He is probably enjoying reading all of the press about himself lately and thinks he doesn't need Bill, and he may be right. But, I also agree that this thought process was probably detrimental to Gore for sure and Kerry possibly. Of course, there are all of those foaming at the mouth supporters who completely drank the Kool-Aid and seriously see Bill Clinton as only slightly less evil than W who would be oh so happy to leave Bill on the sidelines. Talk about holding a grudge -- those people have nothing on the PUMA folks!

[NorVaGal]

And, I don't think that Bill Clinton will be able to bring himself to sincerely endorse and campaign for Sen. Obama. Note: SINCERELY is the operative word. Also, foaming at the mouth is an attribute exclusively reserved for anti-Obama deadenders. (Check out videos of Harriet Christian, of DNC RBC meeting fame, for classic example.)

BTW, do you think that McCain and Romney are sincerely now bestest of buddies?

[texanna]

I think that being rabid is not specific to a species. I also think that McSame, like pretty much all really good politicians, does not have any true BFF's unless he has a dog. No one gets to the top of our political system without having a healthy thespian streak, and that goes for the latest contenders we've got vying for the top spot. I say, when someone tells you who they are, you should listen. McSame has told us he is going to perpetuate the Bushie reign. Obama has told us he knows how to present himself as a blank screen for anyone and everyone to project what they will onto him while he will do whatever he wants. Quite a choice we've got for ourselves!

[YellerDawg]

Yep!

[nomobull]

nope