Oprah can't help Barack Obama nail Hillary Clinton in Iowa, New Hampshire, or even South Carolina. The throng of Oprah groupies that pitched camp in front of the Obama campaign headquarters in Columbia, South Carolina to get free tickets to her and Obama's appearance at the Colonial Center in that city were there to ogle, and if they are lucky, touch the garments of America's favorite TV earth mother at the auditorium.
But after the ogling and touching Oprah, it doesn't mean they'll vote for Obama. A Pew Research Center poll after a big Oprah fundraising bash in September found that by a crushing margin respondents said that Oprah's tout of Obama won't sway them the least bit. And it shouldn't, at least not because, Oprah says so. Despite all the talk about Oprah being a transcendental force that supersedes mere celebrity mortals she's still just that, a celebrity. The thousands that clawed for tickets to rub shoulders with her at her Obama pep rally in Columbia, South Carolina were there precisely because of her star power and the insatiable celebrity mania that grips far too many star struck Americans.
Yet, celebrities fail miserably every time to do much for their political picks. Willie Nelson, Madonna, Jon Bovi, Martin Sheen, and in reverse, George Clooney are big money celebrities and virtual household names. They all endorsed Democratic presidential candidates in 2004. Nelson endorsed Dennis Kucinich. Bon Jovi endorsed John Kerry. Sheen endorsed Howard Dean. Madonna backed Wesley Clark. One of their picks went down to flaming defeat. The other three never came close to getting the Democratic presidential nomination.
As for Clooney, he publicly declared that he hoped that his non-endorsement of Kerry probably helped him at the polls. It didn't. Though Clooney now backs Obama he's still very mindful of the potential liability of celebrity hood and has publicly said that he thinks campaigning for a candidate hurts a candidate. Clooney recognized a political truism that's etched in stone. That's that a celebrity pump of a presidential candidate does little to boost the candidate.
The one group that Obama hopes is the rare exception to the rule is black women. He banks heavily that Oprah can help him smash through the Hillary fest that many black women have with Clinton. In South Carolina, black voters make up nearly half of the Democratic voters, a greater proportion than any other state, and black women make up a significant proportion of that vote. Though most adore Oprah and are well aware of her long standing backing of Obama, that hasn't shaken their support of Clinton the least bit. Nearly three times more black women say they'll back Hillary over him, and that's especially true among lower income, working class black women. She is a woman, mother, and most importantly is regarded by many black women as a strong advocate for health care and women's interests.
Selling Obama is not like selling one of Oprah's handpicked authors that the mere mention of on her show will send their book hurtling to the top of the charts. Voters make their decisions about politicians on a combination of factors, party affiliation, their stance on the issues, their political beliefs, and their experience at getting the job done. Few will rely on Oprah's word that Obama is the best to handle global warming, tax policy, the Iraq war, terrorism, job creation and inflation, failing public schools, criminal justice issues and judicial appointments.
A candidate, and only the candidate, has to sell his or herself that they have a sound grasp of the issues, and can forcefully and clearly articulate them, and most importantly, are the most experienced. That's the glaring Achilles Heel for Obama. In every poll, even the most rabid Clinton loathers, rank Hillary at the top of the pile in experience in dealing with foreign and domestic issues. Voters got burned badly with Bush. His gross inexperience in statecraft before grabbing the White House cost Americans dearly in eight years of his disastrous bumbles and fumbles on everything from the Iraq war to domestic policy. Many voters won't make that mistake again.
That's not to say that endorsements don't help a candidate. But they have to be the right endorsements. The right ones come from seasoned politicians and respected industry, labor, or public interest groups that have the trust and confidence of voters, and a solid track record in fighting for legislation and public policy change. That's also not to say that Oprah's endorsement will hurt Obama. The hype, promotion, and allure of Oprah have some value in bumping even higher Obama's media visibility.
The O and O show has caused the tongues to wag, eyebrows to rise and they will draw legions to their campaign stops. But that won't be the knock out wallop Obama counts on to floor Hillary. Celebrities simply don't and shouldn't pack that kind of political punch. And neither does Oprah.
Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His new book is The Latino Challenge to Black America: Towards a Conversation between African-Americans and Hispanics (Middle Passage Press)
hutchinsonreport@aol
I have a very disturbing image in my mind now.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/erin-kotecki-vest/i-tried-to-tell-_b_75976.html
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Mr. H., you're living in a Utopian world if you actually think that the average voter is going to pay more attention to those you listed above than someone like Oprah.
These are the people that get their news in 30 to 40 second sound bites for half an hour each evening, and then move on to Entertainment Tonight and other such garbage.
Ninety percent of them aren't seeking-out the opinions of those you mention. That would require an actual commitment of time and research AND an actual interest in the race.
Sadly, that ain't happening.
This is the era of faces and personalities, and I think Oprah will have a shockingly huge impact on Obama's numbers.
In a perfect world, your list of those that SHOULD be consulted would be wonderful, and many of us that try to participate in the process do look to see what honest to gosh 'real' important people have to say.
(For the record, I admire Ms. Winfrey for the massive charitable efforts she puts out and inspires in others. But,I am decidedly NOT an Oprah acolyte. I catch her show about 8 to 10 times a year when she features a topic I feel is important.)
Nothing in today's event, the size of the crowd, the speech, regained my trust in Obama after McClurkin.
I recommend other LGBT caucus attendees form UNCOMMITED sub groups, let candidates WORK for our votes for a change. Like a Hate Crimes Bill, Blue Dog Democrats DON'T ABORT, or an inclusive ENDA Bill.
I was originally turned off by the hype of Obama. But I came to realize it is not just the impassioned speeches that are propelling him on, but the actual content. Not only is he extremely intelligent, but has an intuitive knowledge of what America is, and who we are as a people. These two speeches squashed any doubt in my mind. If you have doubts about Obama, I suggest you check them out and make up your own mind.
Take Back our Government http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid900718856/bclid900554575/bctid1016735906
Role of Religion in Politics
http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid463869411/bctid416343938
Celebrities enjoy the same freedom of speech as everyone else but as The Dixie Chix found out we also enjoy the same freedom to spend our money on another celebrity.
I remember a few months ago reading about John Travolta speaking of Global Warming and conserving. Remember this is the same John Travolta that owns several private planes (including jets). This guy is hypocritical enough to tell me to cut back?
Oprah seems like a good person and has done many charitable things. It's nice to see a celebrity that can be held up as an actual role model. While she bores the hell out of me there does seem to be many that almost worship her. Obama might pick up a few votes from those people. Overall though I suspect her opinions really don't matter and the Obama supporters would have backed him regardless of who she endorsed.
Whether Obama can then offer the vision for people to vote for him is another question. (I hope he does, as he's my close second choice after John Edwards). But Oprah's impact can be huge
And now you write that Oprah will not help Obama? If that's so, why did Hillary Clinton announce just days later that Barara Streisand would be campaigning with Hillary in Iowa, and maybe the other states? Because she knows what you don't: Oprah is not just a celebrity. She is a humanitarian, business titan, visionary, and worldwide cultural force.
Yeah, she can endorse books that go straight to the top of the bestseller's list. She can endorse gadgets and clothes that soon fly off the shelves of retailers. That's impressive. But I admire Oprah because she gives away $50 million a year to charity.
I admire Oprah because she has put her money where her mouth is with respect to imploring Americans to take the issue of pedophilia more seriously. In fact, Oprah has had such an impact on the national agenda that Sen. Harry Reid positively called it "the Oprah effect".
You fail to realize that Oprah will not only help Obama with African-American women (who are more crucial in South Carolina), but he will help Obama with suburban white women, latinos, Asian-Americans, Arab-Americans, and other groups - who no doubt admire her philanthopic endeavors and motivational spirit.
And let me say this: in all of your pro-Hillary posts, written why Hillary is so experienced, and what she is more experienced at than Obama.
Hillary is experienced at saying she's experienced. Obama has more political experience than Hillary, and, he doesn't have to resport to planting questioners in townhall meetings to make him sharper than he really is (like Hillary), or, before their 9th birthday (like Hillary).
America is watchin, and will witness an Obama win in both Iowa and New Hampshire. And there is not one pro-Hillary post you can write after that that will stop an Obama victory in South Carolina.
OBAMA!! Fired up and ready to go!!!!
Then again, One should never underestimate the power of O.. Oprah is not just a celebrity, she is a pitch woman extraordinaire. She not known for just standing there and looking pretty but for pushing info, notions and ideas. I expect these rallies to be full of surprises(not gimmicks) to maximize media attention. His speech must be reviewed as Incredible with a few inspiring and quotable phrases.
Obama's candidacy has always been a media-propped one. The media wanted a horse race and it kept hitting Hillary's "inevitability". That constant hype became a fad for a lot of the young and impressionable. It also helped with a lot of Hollywood celebrities endorsing Obama. Lastly, the perpetually disgruntled Nader type saw a horse to root for
Keeping your post in mind and the facts I have stated above, Obama's candidacy is primarily fluff. Now we look at the actual voters and the real people. Those who really have bread and butter issues. Those who really follow what's going in the US and overseas and those who actually turn out and vote. In these demographics, Hillary is way ahead and that is all that matters
Remember Dean in 2003-04? He exploded the web based fund raising and had kids running around for him, creating the illusion that he had serious "grassroots" support. On voting day, all those "kids" were conspicous by their absence. When Kerry became the inevitable nominee, celebrities like "P Diddy" went out of their way to get the youth vote out and had huge crowds showing up to "ogle", just like you wrote. The end result? Just 14% showed up on Election Day!!!
Hillary is way ahead in 49 out of the 50 States. She is way ahead Nationally. She is way ahead in all the demographics that really matter and who actually turn out to vote. Meanwhile, all Obama can do is to keep the hype alive, especially since his entire candidacy is based on just that: hype!
Real substance will crush hype as it always does ...