Super Tuesday Answers Some Questions But Raises More for Clinton and Obama

The odds are that Democratic presidential arch rivals Barrack Obama and Hillary Clinton will know no more about which of the two will be the party's standard bearer the day after Super Tuesday than they did when the day started. The early talk about the "inevitability" of Hillary's march to the Democratic nomination has long since ceased. And any talk about Obama's inevitability, despite his rock star size crowds, poll surge and high profile endorsements, is just as nonsensical and wishful thinking. Obama will win some of the 15 Democratic state primaries and seven caucuses and one in American Samoa and Clinton will win some others. In the biggest and most crucial delegate rich state of California, the delegates are parceled out proportionally, so both Clinton and Obama will get their share.

But even with no Clinton or Obama knockout punch on Super Tuesday, the day will still answer some questions while raising a couple of large questions for which ever one grabs the top Democratic prize. The first question for Obama is will white voters en masse back an African-American candidate. Nearly every white voter in every poll profusely swears that they are color blind, and many back pat Obama, and say they will vote solely on the basis of competence, qualification and vision. They've said the same thing in head to head contests between black and white candidates in past elections and then once in the privacy of the voting booth done just the reverse. The result: the black candidate has gone down to flaming defeat.

But Obama's race neutral change pitch has had earth rattling political reverb and he will likely get a significant number of white votes, particularly from younger voters. That will in part bury the Bradley effect and that's the penchant for many white voters to dupe pollsters and interviewers about their feelings on race. At least that is, bury it in the primaries where his opponent is a woman with towering negatives with many voters. The questions for Clinton on the gender side is will male voters in big numbers back her. In some polls more than half of male voters say they wouldn't vote for her, and are even less charitable toward the notion of a woman president than a black president.

A question and a worry for Obama is can he win a big number of Hispanic voters over. That's only an issue in part because of the tensions and conflicts that have marred relations between blacks and Hispanics in some places, and in greater part because of the long standing ties, heartfelt affection, and political court by the Clintons of Latinos. His success at chipping away some of Clinton's Latino firewall in California and the Western states where Hispanic voters make up ten to twenty percent of the vote could be a deal maker or breaker in his drive to the nomination and beyond.

The question for both is: Do Americans really want the change that they say they want. Obama is betting the political bank they do and even Hillary has done everything she can to counter the charge that she's old guard politics and that she is just a much as a change maker as Obama. Another question for both is how big the issue of the Iraq war still is to voters. Obama has pushed hard to sell himself as the only top tier candidate that opposed the war from the start, and that Hillary at least initially backed it. But polls now show that the war with the appearance of stabilization and the military surge in Iraq is not the top campaign issue it once was.

The last daunting question for the Democrats is how to keep the momentum going after Super Tuesday for the months up to the convention in August and make sure the muddled outcome of Super Tuesday doesn't split the Democrats into two warring and irreconcilable factions. That would spell doom for the party in the fall.

The Republicans don't have to answer that question. Ten of the Republican primaries are winner take all affairs. If one candidate, and from the big time endorsements that he's gotten and the poll numbers, that candidate is likely to be John McCain. He almost certainly will emerge with a commanding lead over Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee in the number of delegates needed for the GOP nomination. He will have six months to do internal fence mending, unite the warring and wavering GOP core factions, pile up key endorsements, massage, streamline, and sharpen the party's message, further bulge his campaign war chest, and further distance himself from Bush's unpopularity. That guarantees the most important thing of all: a united Republican Party without the albatross of the Bush legacy.

Super Tuesday will answer questions for the Republicans. And raise more questions for the Democrats. That makes Super Tuesday much less super than Obama or Clinton would like.

Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His forthcoming book is The Ethnic Presidency: How Race Decides the Race to the White House (Middle Passage Press, February 2008).

Comments

[apresdeluge]

So far, the biggest obstacles to eventually party unity are Barak & Michelle Obama. His statement that his supporters "may not" vote for Hillary and her statement that she would have to "think about" supporting Hillary are just plain arrogant, egotistical and divisive. This from the "uniter" candidate. His followers seem to be obsessed with a cult of personality which history has shown can never measure up to to expectations.

It reminds me of Bush's "my way or the highway" form of governing which is particularly hypocritical coming from the so-called candidate of "unity", "hope", and "vision".

[Perrier007]

The only way there would not be a split is if Hillary gets her way, and Obama bows out. It's all about privilige, ya know?

[ChimpmasterDJ]

Earl, the split has already happened. If the party nominates someone who consistently enabled the war-making of this administration AND voted against banning cluster bombs and land mines in civilian areas, then I - and millions of Democrats - will leave the formerly-Democratic Party (now simply the DLC) and look for political kinship elsewhere.

And perhaps this is the best thing that could happen, since the 2 party model has been a significant factor in the demise of our system of democracy.

[tbone99]

So while Obama and Hilary fight each other McCain will have the advantage to promote himself and trash both of them with good basis on the Dems politic infighting between who is most politically correct, a term the Repugs love to use with great flair.

[vsign]

The world is watching us. Change is not the only important ingredient. Experience and stability with the kind of change they want - is what they are looking for and what I am looking for in a new american leader. I really believe Hillary and Bill give all of that to us - experience, stability and change.

I do not believe Barack's health care plans would include me. Hillary's plan would because it includes everyone. Barack's does not.

I believe Hillary is the only democratic candidate who can beat the republican. She meets the national security test and Barack does not. Those of us who want a leader who thinks about our security, as well as keeps us from going to war, will want Hillary to represent us with the republican.

I believe Hillary is the best candidate to solve the problems in the economy. The Clinton years proved that.

Hillary knows the right people for her cabinet and other advisory positions. She has tested them already.

I could feel secure on day one. I would have someone working to get me health care, keep us out of war, and have a team of people - all working for me.

[hrayovac]

Earl: Case you hadn't heard the phrase, "arch rivals" went out with the Batman TV show, not that it ever meant anything.

The Bradley effect was "in effect" according to you, just weeks ago in articles here at HuffPost. You were one of the very few clueless people peddling the idea.

If Obama supporters want to say his election is inevitable that's the same as Martin Luther King saying, "I've seen the promised land." It's a hope, a dream and everyone is just as legitmate in having a dream as you are stomping on it in your columns. I'm as old as you and I welcome new people who have, rather than just "a pitch", "a calling"...such as Obama.

[VSamuels]

The last daunting question for the Democrats is how to keep the momentum going after Super Tuesday for the months up to the convention in August and make sure the muddled outcome of Super Tuesday doesn't split the Democrats into two warring and irreconcilable factions. That would spell doom for the party in the fall.
-----------------------------------------------

And now you're worried?

Leading up to Super Tuesday, Mr. Hutchinson your repeated attacks against Obama has contributed to your above observations about a Democratic split. It is admirable to recognize that there are two movements afoot; but one wonders why you would take part in the warring yourself, and then step back and try to appear to be a neutral voice or reason as you now, lament about these circumstances?

Certainly you, yourself could have advanced your own writings to consolidate what you believed were the benefits of each candidates; and how they could push their separate support towards an unified movement leading up to Denver? But did you do so?

No.

But, instead your series of 'hit jobs' were its own separate narrative contributing to the insidious nature of both camps. You stirred the pot and roiled the brew, as you provided a forum not to listen to each, but to tear each other apart.

I harken to say, 'shame on you, Mr. Hutchinson' by virtue of your nerve to now proffer such a piece of conflicting nonsense; yet, in view of your own hands' part in this real bloody mess, sadly I recognize my words would be sadly futile.

[mickeyrat]

Clearly the Democratic Party is already split irreconcilably. If Hillary wins, a lot of Obama supporters will be convinced that it was because of the Clintons' race baiting tactics. And if Obama wins, a lot of Clintonistas will feel that the MSM turned against her. Even if the two of them somehow patch things up, I think a lot of their supporters on either side will still feel disgruntled, and it will be a dispirited fall campaign in one one group or another doesn't put out its full effort to support the ticket--spelling defeat for Dems. Dems have to capture the purple states, and they can't do that disunited.

Obama and Clinton supporters both need to consider, at this point, rallying behind a third candidate. At this point, don't look at your guy--ask whether you can carry the supporters of the other guy. If you can't answer yes to that question, then you can't believe that you can win the general election.

Hillary was, even before the vitriol of the past few weeks, probably unelectable as it was. Now, with the emergence of McCain in the Republican party, and the disaffection of left, moderate independents and the Obamaites she is clearly unelectable. Obama had already to contend with the Bradley effect--now we will have conservative Democrats who use the primary season as a reason to vote for McCain.

Democrats need to realize that this split is already irreconcilable. At this point, the only thing that will satisfy either of the major candidate's supporters is that the OTHER side doesn't win. And that, without a third choice, means the Republicans win.

John Edwards suspended his campaign. In large part, he recognized the futility of pursuing a media campaign against two admittedly historic personages. But he suspended--not withdrew. He still has the delegates he won, and hasn't yet released them. Nor has he endorsed anyone. His name is still on the ballot. I will be voting for him today.

Draw the proper conclusions, folks.

[brabc1]

Anyone who doesn't realize that we must vote Democratic in November no matter the candidate has not been paying attention to the last 7 years.

With McCain we will get years and years of war, no health plan for all and extreme Supreme Judges to join Roberts, Thomas and Scalia.

Think about it! Wake up!

[Roose]

Bill Clinton has already divided the party. No Clintons!

Go Obama!

[Puller58]

Of the posts I've read, PurpleGirl really gets to me. The more this campaign goes on, the less I like any of the candidates. Sure, people sneer at third party candidates, but all I hear is how each side's supporters hate the other. This seasons "products" are really substandard. It would be great if the corporatti were out of the picture. But in our current supreme court frame up, money=speech. I'm afraid the one question that should be raised by super tuesday won't be. That is, how can you support these shill/candidates?

[vsign]

This election is like no other - it is exposing the great generational divide. I dare say it might be greater than the racial or sexual divides.

Obama's message, for me, is not to hate the actions of our current leaders, Bush and the republicans, and win with the democratic party - but to hate the Clintons. Young people unite and do away with the old people!

[VictoriaHope]

As sure as she has appropriated "Change" from Obama's "Stand for Change" Billary is looking to when Obama's supporters will become Billary supporters. "Dream Team" talk is floating about now. A nightmare, rather. Many Obama supporters will never vote for any ticket headed by Hillary Clinton. Many Obama fans will never vote an Obama / Clinton ticket even!
A politician as sharp as Bill should have known there will be blood, there will be backlash, for his South Carolina pit-Bill attacks on Obama. A politician as sharp as Hillary should know that her sly antics performed to cut away a chunk here and there of gentlemanliness and charisma of Obama will not endear her to Obamacans. She can ride Bill's coat-tails, but can she ride Obama's? The Obama supporters will make that decision.

[KenoshaMarge]

It is way to late to hope for unity. The Obama and Clinton supporters hate each other almost as much as they hate the Republicans. Actually I think the Hillary Haters hate her more than the Republicans. Otherwise why would they use so many Republican Talking Points when attacking her?
Easy choice for me, if Obama is the candidate I will vote Green.

[Merg]

So, it seems that the rabid Obama supporters will have a big decision to make if Hillary is the nominee.
#1 Get behind the Dem Party, which they are loath to do but would get the Dems in the White House and Congress.
#2 Vote MiCain, of the Hundred Years War fame and leave the country in the mess we're in.
#3 Petulantly, refuse to vote at all, and then...well, see #2 above.