The odds are that Democratic presidential arch rivals Barrack Obama and Hillary Clinton will know no more about which of the two will be the party's standard bearer the day after Super Tuesday than they did when the day started. The early talk about the "inevitability" of Hillary's march to the Democratic nomination has long since ceased. And any talk about Obama's inevitability, despite his rock star size crowds, poll surge and high profile endorsements, is just as nonsensical and wishful thinking. Obama will win some of the 15 Democratic state primaries and seven caucuses and one in American Samoa and Clinton will win some others. In the biggest and most crucial delegate rich state of California, the delegates are parceled out proportionally, so both Clinton and Obama will get their share.
But even with no Clinton or Obama knockout punch on Super Tuesday, the day will still answer some questions while raising a couple of large questions for which ever one grabs the top Democratic prize. The first question for Obama is will white voters en masse back an African-American candidate. Nearly every white voter in every poll profusely swears that they are color blind, and many back pat Obama, and say they will vote solely on the basis of competence, qualification and vision. They've said the same thing in head to head contests between black and white candidates in past elections and then once in the privacy of the voting booth done just the reverse. The result: the black candidate has gone down to flaming defeat.
But Obama's race neutral change pitch has had earth rattling political reverb and he will likely get a significant number of white votes, particularly from younger voters. That will in part bury the Bradley effect and that's the penchant for many white voters to dupe pollsters and interviewers about their feelings on race. At least that is, bury it in the primaries where his opponent is a woman with towering negatives with many voters. The questions for Clinton on the gender side is will male voters in big numbers back her. In some polls more than half of male voters say they wouldn't vote for her, and are even less charitable toward the notion of a woman president than a black president.
A question and a worry for Obama is can he win a big number of Hispanic voters over. That's only an issue in part because of the tensions and conflicts that have marred relations between blacks and Hispanics in some places, and in greater part because of the long standing ties, heartfelt affection, and political court by the Clintons of Latinos. His success at chipping away some of Clinton's Latino firewall in California and the Western states where Hispanic voters make up ten to twenty percent of the vote could be a deal maker or breaker in his drive to the nomination and beyond.
The question for both is: Do Americans really want the change that they say they want. Obama is betting the political bank they do and even Hillary has done everything she can to counter the charge that she's old guard politics and that she is just a much as a change maker as Obama. Another question for both is how big the issue of the Iraq war still is to voters. Obama has pushed hard to sell himself as the only top tier candidate that opposed the war from the start, and that Hillary at least initially backed it. But polls now show that the war with the appearance of stabilization and the military surge in Iraq is not the top campaign issue it once was.
The last daunting question for the Democrats is how to keep the momentum going after Super Tuesday for the months up to the convention in August and make sure the muddled outcome of Super Tuesday doesn't split the Democrats into two warring and irreconcilable factions. That would spell doom for the party in the fall.
The Republicans don't have to answer that question. Ten of the Republican primaries are winner take all affairs. If one candidate, and from the big time endorsements that he's gotten and the poll numbers, that candidate is likely to be John McCain. He almost certainly will emerge with a commanding lead over Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee in the number of delegates needed for the GOP nomination. He will have six months to do internal fence mending, unite the warring and wavering GOP core factions, pile up key endorsements, massage, streamline, and sharpen the party's message, further bulge his campaign war chest, and further distance himself from Bush's unpopularity. That guarantees the most important thing of all: a united Republican Party without the albatross of the Bush legacy.
Super Tuesday will answer questions for the Republicans. And raise more questions for the Democrats. That makes Super Tuesday much less super than Obama or Clinton would like.
Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His forthcoming book is The Ethnic Presidency: How Race Decides the Race to the White House (Middle Passage Press, February 2008).
It reminds me of Bush's "my way or the highway" form of governing which is particularly hypocritical coming from the so-called candidate of "unity", "hope", and "vision".
And perhaps this is the best thing that could happen, since the 2 party model has been a significant factor in the demise of our system of democracy.
I do not believe Barack's health care plans would include me. Hillary's plan would because it includes everyone. Barack's does not.
I believe Hillary is the only democratic candidate who can beat the republican. She meets the national security test and Barack does not. Those of us who want a leader who thinks about our security, as well as keeps us from going to war, will want Hillary to represent us with the republican.
I believe Hillary is the best candidate to solve the problems in the economy. The Clinton years proved that.
Hillary knows the right people for her cabinet and other advisory positions. She has tested them already.
I could feel secure on day one. I would have someone working to get me health care, keep us out of war, and have a team of people - all working for me.
The Bradley effect was "in effect" according to you, just weeks ago in articles here at HuffPost. You were one of the very few clueless people peddling the idea.
If Obama supporters want to say his election is inevitable that's the same as Martin Luther King saying, "I've seen the promised land." It's a hope, a dream and everyone is just as legitmate in having a dream as you are stomping on it in your columns. I'm as old as you and I welcome new people who have, rather than just "a pitch", "a calling"...such as Obama.
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And now you're worried?
Leading up to Super Tuesday, Mr. Hutchinson your repeated attacks against Obama has contributed to your above observations about a Democratic split. It is admirable to recognize that there are two movements afoot; but one wonders why you would take part in the warring yourself, and then step back and try to appear to be a neutral voice or reason as you now, lament about these circumstances?
Certainly you, yourself could have advanced your own writings to consolidate what you believed were the benefits of each candidates; and how they could push their separate support towards an unified movement leading up to Denver? But did you do so?
No.
But, instead your series of 'hit jobs' were its own separate narrative contributing to the insidious nature of both camps. You stirred the pot and roiled the brew, as you provided a forum not to listen to each, but to tear each other apart.
I harken to say, 'shame on you, Mr. Hutchinson' by virtue of your nerve to now proffer such a piece of conflicting nonsense; yet, in view of your own hands' part in this real bloody mess, sadly I recognize my words would be sadly futile.
Obama and Clinton supporters both need to consider, at this point, rallying behind a third candidate. At this point, don't look at your guy--ask whether you can carry the supporters of the other guy. If you can't answer yes to that question, then you can't believe that you can win the general election.
Hillary was, even before the vitriol of the past few weeks, probably unelectable as it was. Now, with the emergence of McCain in the Republican party, and the disaffection of left, moderate independents and the Obamaites she is clearly unelectable. Obama had already to contend with the Bradley effect--now we will have conservative Democrats who use the primary season as a reason to vote for McCain.
Democrats need to realize that this split is already irreconcilable. At this point, the only thing that will satisfy either of the major candidate's supporters is that the OTHER side doesn't win. And that, without a third choice, means the Republicans win.
John Edwards suspended his campaign. In large part, he recognized the futility of pursuing a media campaign against two admittedly historic personages. But he suspended--not withdrew. He still has the delegates he won, and hasn't yet released them. Nor has he endorsed anyone. His name is still on the ballot. I will be voting for him today.
Draw the proper conclusions, folks.
With McCain we will get years and years of war, no health plan for all and extreme Supreme Judges to join Roberts, Thomas and Scalia.
Think about it! Wake up!
Go Obama!
Obama's message, for me, is not to hate the actions of our current leaders, Bush and the republicans, and win with the democratic party - but to hate the Clintons. Young people unite and do away with the old people!
A politician as sharp as Bill should have known there will be blood, there will be backlash, for his South Carolina pit-Bill attacks on Obama. A politician as sharp as Hillary should know that her sly antics performed to cut away a chunk here and there of gentlemanliness and charisma of Obama will not endear her to Obamacans. She can ride Bill's coat-tails, but can she ride Obama's? The Obama supporters will make that decision.
Easy choice for me, if Obama is the candidate I will vote Green.
#1 Get behind the Dem Party, which they are loath to do but would get the Dems in the White House and Congress.
#2 Vote MiCain, of the Hundred Years War fame and leave the country in the mess we're in.
#3 Petulantly, refuse to vote at all, and then...well, see #2 above.