Why Race Won't Hurt Obama on November 4th
Republican presidential contender John McCain got one thing right about Democratic rival Barack Obama. He told Larry King that he didn't think race would be much of an issue in the final vote. As McCain put it only "a tiny, tiny, minority" will vote against Obama because he's black. McCain was not just campaign bloviating to puff up his oft touted credential as a play it straight on race guy. The notion that because millions of whites passionately back Obama race is permanently off America's table is more hope and prayer than reality.
Still despite endless and obsessive speculation that race could derail Obama in his slog to the White House it won't and it probably never would have. Start with McCain and Obama; McCain made the personal and pragmatic choice not to make race an issue either directly or indirectly through code words, snide hints, and racial guilt by association attacks. When the Jeremiah Wright flap cropped up, he could have hammered Obama as a stealth race baiter. He turned thumbs down on that. Later when VP mate Sarah Palin and some others in his campaign were etching to unload on Obama-Wright again, he still said no.
That decision was not totally due to honor and noble intent. A too frontal racial attack would have brought instant screams of foul from Democrats, and millions of voters who demanded that the campaign be a clean, issues focused campaign. McCain read the political leaves correctly and saw the political peril in flipping the race card. The occasions that he slipped and rapped Obama as a socialist and a terrorist fellow traveler brought universal condemnation that he was going negative or worse running a dirty campaign.
Obama helped things even more. The firm message in his signature slogan of hope and change, campaign literature, TV ads, rallies, in pitches to contributors, his core of advisors, and major endorsers was that the Obama presidential campaign and an Obama presidency would be broad, non-racial and issues driven. Anything else would have instantly stirred horrifying visions to many of Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson. His candidacy would have been DOA.
But McCain and Obama's best efforts to make race a non issue in the campaign would have fallen short without the sea change shift in public attitudes. The decade since the Rodney King beating, the O.J. Simpson trial, and the urban riots, has been a period of relative racial peace in America. During that time polls consistently showed that more whites than ever are genuinely convinced that America is a color-blind society, equal opportunity is a reality, and blacks and whites if not exactly attaining complete social and economic equality, are closer than ever to that goal. Though the figures on income, education and health care still show a colossal gap between poor blacks and whites, the perception nonetheless is that racism is an ugly and nasty byproduct of a long by-gone past.
The passage by huge margins of anti-affirmative action measures in California, Michigan, and Washington, was not simply a case of whites engaging in racial denial or a cover for hidden bias. Many white voters backed the initiatives because they honestly believed that color should never be in the equation in hiring and education, and that race is divisive.
It's is easy to see why they believe that. "Whites only" signs and redneck Southern cops unleashing police dogs, turning fire hoses on and beating hapless black demonstrators have long been forgotten. Americans turn on their TVs and see legions of black newscasters and talk show hosts, topped by TV's richest and most popular celebrity, Oprah Winfrey.
They see mega-rich black entertainers and athletes pampered and fawned over by a doting media and an adoring public. They see TV commercials that picture blacks living in trendy integrated suburban homes, sending their kids to integrated schools and driving expensive cars. They see blacks such as former Secretary of State Colin Powell and his successor Condoleezza Rice in high-profile policy-making positions in the Bush administration. They see dozens of blacks in Congress, many more in state legislatures and city halls. They see blacks heading corporations and universities. And those blacks who incessantly scream racism about their plight are roundly reviled for feeding racial paranoia.
There is even some talk that the so-called Bradley Effect, the penchant for whites to lie to pollsters about their true racial feelings and vote against a black candidate, may actually turn into a reverse Bradley Effect this election. That's that many whites will vote for Obama because he's black. That notion is just as dubious as the Bradley Effect. But to even raise the possibility tells much about changing times and attitudes.
If Obama wins and that seems likely, race will be, as McCain says, only a tiny, tiny factor. That's a tribute to him, Obama and the millions of America voters that were determined to make sure that race did not hurt Obama on November 4th
Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His latest book is The Ethnic Presidency: How Race Decides the Race to the White House (Middle Passage Press, February 2008).
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1. Race was he reason it took so long to officially put away Hillary Clinton. Don't take it from me, take it from Ed Rendell, John Murtha, and the residents of Pennsylvania and Ohio.
Race will also be the reason that McCain wins by a nose this Tuesday. It will mean the difference between a stolen election, and an electoral landslide. The real question here is how will the "average" white person vote?
2. Why is John McCain credited with not bringing up Rev. Wright? There was a recent article on this very website about some of McCain's Republican supporters running Jeremiah Wright ads through election day:
http://tpm
what is Bill Ayers if he isn't a substitute for Jeremiah Wright? The reason Bill Ayers doesn't work is because he looks like the average American's professor, or a middle-aged guy they see at the local market, or public library.
For that matter why is Hillary Clinton credited with supporting Obama by campaigning for him across the country? What's the alternative for her? Committing political suicide?
I hope you're right. I hope that racism only affects the choice of a small minority of voters, and if you are right, I suppose these are people that wouldn't have voted Democrat anyway. But I am afraid you aren't right, and I will carry that fear until November 5 (and, if Obama should lose, further on).
As for McCain and "playing the race card", he has been race baiting since he began to go dirty. Not openly - he couldn't get cought in doing that. But more or less disguised. Examples are many. Palin has been going more directly into that direction (O. isn't "American" enough, O. doesn't share the values of "you and me"), but lots of McC's attack ads have had racial implications, hints in the direction of prejudice. From the "innocent" ("look who's playing baseball instead of meeting soldiers") to the disgusting (the black man-white women-combo in the Spears/Hilton ad, the sex ed ad) via the stupid ("uppity" accusations, hints to "stay in place".) Michelle O. has been attacked too, and the attacks against her has been racially charged too. "Angry black woman", "not proud of her country". Race baiting indeed.
I don't think McCain is a racist. But I think he knows that a certain percentage of the electorate is, and he is taking advantage of that. But he can't do it too obviously, or he loses another part of the electorate. Cynisism, again.
There's no doubt it will hurt his numbers...
What's so sad is that if things weren't in such horrible shape in this country, and if Bush hadn't put the Republican brand deep into the cr@@per, I'm not sure Obama could win. Seems that this year things are just SUCH a mess that many who would choose the white candidate over any other without even thinking about it have HAD to rethink their reasoning.
Of course, if Obama does win, I look at everything that has happened over the past 8 years, as bad as it has been, at having at least ONE good thing coming from them!
McCain's lackeys are buying time to run Jeramiah Wright ads as we write - The cries of Marxist, Communist, wealth-spreader all conjure up untrue images of a president who will take from hard-working whites and give it to lazy do nothing blacks. That is racism and many people buy into it. This article is lightweight, lacks substance, lacks logic, is baseless and wrong-headed.
Without vision-the people perish - Obama/Biden 08
Thank you for this thoughtful commentary. I have felt all along the results of this election will show that people of all colors and ideals will vote for Sen Obama. A substantial part of that famous dream of Dr Martin Luther King, Jr seems to be soon realized. Our next President will chosen for the content of his character, not the color of his skin.
Oh, Uncle Earl's at it again.
Race has always been a factor in this race, the poll numers speak for themselves. If Obama was completely white with the same credentials and all other things being equal...th
Small correction there truff.
One of the many many "Great Nations on Earth"
The incessant cry of Bestest, Fastest, Richest and all that crap gets you ziltch in true order of things.
Wake up and smell the coffee, which, by the way, comes from some other Great Nation on Earth.
Holy Crap!
I couldn't agee more. Obama will not be hurt by race, but racial bias has sufficiently helped his cause/campaign. A 10/7/2008 Pollster poll stated the over 94% of African Americans support Obama/Biden. Go figure.
racial bias has nothing to do with 94% of blacks voting for obama . actually how many voted for al sharpton and jesse jackson when they ran ?
black folks are voting for obama/biden simply because he is the best candidate for the job period. you have to understand our experience and perspective - we would be foolish as a race to be represented by anyone less than " the best " our race can offer. we want someone who is all that obama embodies "a great american leader"
color may be an issue for you and i know why - but color is only an issue for us when we are put in a postion where we are forced to react to it.
obama/biden 2008
Even if you should be right (and I don't think you are, blacks have voted for plenty of white presidents since being enabled the right to vote, and most of those votes have gone to Democratic candidates), the percentage of Americans being black is not large enough to outweigh the percentage being of other skin colors.
I try to appreciate Earl's blogs, but I find myself disagreeing with just about everything he writes. Of course, race was a HUGE issue in this campaign, and McCain only hit the brakes on his campaign's race baiting when he absolutely had to in order to avoid the negative op-eds. Obama also made race an issue by implicitly arguing that his multiracial identity is a political asset.
Race will not be an electoral drag on Obama, not because race doesn't matter, but because his race has greater appeal among blacks, youths, cultural liberals, and other minority groups than it has liabilities among older, white cultural conservatives. The advantages outweigh the disadvantages, especially because of Obama's innovative field operation that is driving unprecedented black and youth turnout in early voting.
Simply put, race has been a significant issue in this campaign, but Obama found a way to make his race work for him instead of against him.
Earl: You lack credibility on this issue when it is obvious that McCain has ignited an under current of white fear in his campaign. You know it. I know it and most of America knows it.
Mr. Ofari, didn't you write comments to the contrary just a few weeks ago?
Like poster, Mrrar, I'm confused!
+Earl:
You are so very optimistic but so very wrong race will and does matter thousands of people say they like Sen. Obama but will not vote for him because of his race and the fact that Sen. Obama is not white is one of the reasons a lot of the derogatory comments that have been circulating about Sen. Obama have stuck with lots of people.
I don't believe for a minute that anyone who likes Obama won't vote for him because of his race.
Yes, there are a few who won't vote for him because he's black ... and except for the very old, they are generally already firmly among steadfast Bush/McCain supporters. We are losing very, very few votes to the race issue.
I am white and it's a plus for me that Barack is black, but the other ticket is so appallingly bad, the plus doesn't begin to enter into the equation for me.
Money talks, and it is screaming in this election. Empty wallets, emptied 401(k)s ... the economy easily takes precedence. And I don't believe the Bradley effect was ever real.
they say that "he seems like a likeable person who talks very well," does that quote sound familiar?
it should it is what McCain, Palin and other republicans say about Sen. Obama just before they slur him with some sort of derogatory comment and infer that he is a muslim or associates with a pastor who teaches blacks to hate whites and there is video of people at McCain/Palin rallies saying they like him but when pressed they admitted that they don't want to vote for him because he is black often saying Sen. Obama would put blacks interests ahead of whites
"McCain read the political leaves correctly and saw the political peril in flipping the race card. "
what planet have you been living on the past 3 weeks?! The McCain Palin team has pulled out all the old racist stops except the "N" word.
STILL upset Clinton didn't win the nomination, are we? well, bite the bullet and vote Obama. You've been wrong every step of the way, but you can still do the right thing.
Just so ... they absolutely have been race-baiting, just like the Clintons did. "He's not like us, he doesn't see America the way we see America" ... I understand what they meant by that, and so did their mouth-breathing audiences.
Earl - you should no better. If it weren't for racists, McCain wouldn't need to bother campaigning.
Earl gives McCain too much credit. Just a couple months ago McCain accused Obama of playing "the race card" for saying that he didn't look like all the other presidents on the dollar bill. McCain has used the "he's not one of us" card and substituted Muslim-bating for race. McCain has not brought out Rev. Wright, I'll give him some credit for that, but I think he has done it out of self-interest, not honor. He has lost the respect of many like me, who thought he was a different kind of Republican. He is not.
And yes, Obama will win.
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