Things are looking good for Senator Obama right now. All the latest polls (before the Vice Presidential debate) show Obama starting to pull ahead. Couple that with all the clips floating around of Sarah Palin's train wreck of an interview with Katie Couric and many on the Left are starting to feel very comfortable about our chances of winning The White House. And that is what I am very worried about.
I strongly caution any of us who are hoping for an Obama-Biden victory to believe that this race is over. There are still about five weeks left in this race and if this primary season and presidential election have proven, a week, a 24-hour cycle even, is a very long time. Look at how quickly Obama's post convetnion bounce was erased by McCain's announcement of Palin. And look at how quickly their momentum was erased in the last week or so in part due to the intense focus on the economy as a result of the whole bailout mess and the never-ending clips of Palin and Katie Couric.
John McCain and the Republicans will not go away quietly. In fact we have to brace ourselves for what is surely about to be a truly nasty run to the homestretch. When behind like they are, the McCain campaign has absolutely nothing to lose by going intensely negative and into a strong attack. The result of such a tactic may be that Obama's lead in the polls could get even greater and come election day we see a historic blowout, or the opposite could happen. Pulling Obama down into the mud, could have a the desired effect and make this a nail-biter all the way to the end.
Let's also keep in mind that George Bush is still President and it would not surprise me if all of a sudden, between now and November, some manufactured foreign "crisis" could rear its head, thereby causing people to refocus again from the economy to foreign affairs, which is supposedly the area where more people express confidence in McCain over Obama. Although the double-edged sword with this tactic is that it would also make people focus more on Palin's lack of foreign policy experience. But nevertheless, expect the desperate, cornered dogs, that the Republicans are right now, to mean that they will be even more dangerous and formidable.
Believe me, I am thrilled to see the polls that are coming out this week. But being a New Orleans Saints fan for many, many years, has also taught me that a lead going into the fourth quarter is not the same as winning the game. Let's take the polls as a good sign but we must not rest or get cocky. Frankly, I have said to my wife all along, that Obama is not comfortably until he is ahead by 12 points in major polls, and shows a similar lead in state-wide polls tracking electoral college votes. I truly believe that the "Bradley Effect," the polling reality that indicates that a certain percentage of whites polled will lie to pollsters when discussing their support about an African-American candidate, is still a big reality for Obama. So taking into account polling margins of error and the "Bradley Effect," Obama is not comfortably ahead until election day.
