It's About 2012, Stupid!

Never underestimate the Clintons. That much we know. But, perhaps we've been watching them slash and burn their way through the last few months of the campaign without realizing what's really going on?

To understand a Clinton, you've got to think like one. To pull that off, you've got to go places you've likely never gone before. Don't bring the kids....

Here I've been, along with everyone else who follows politics, wondering what in the world the Clinton campaign was still doing in this election. For some time now I've been convinced that Senator Obama will be the Democratic nominee come the fall. And, like so many others, I've been wondering why she's still doing her level best to sully Barack Obama's name for the coming general election?

Then it occurred to me: She's already running against President McCain in 2012.

We've all been busy trying to figure out what her campaign stands to gain by throwing mud at Barack Obama and why Team Clinton has no sense of reality (much less class or decency). But, like Dorothy trapped in Oz, the answer has been here all along.

She's teeing it up for 2012. In order to do that, she's got to make sure Barack Obama loses this fall. How better to do so than to stay in this race well past the interests of the Democratic Party? She can stick around and land a few body blows before she passes the fight against Obama to McCain in the general election. Does she have every right to stay in the race and blah, blah, blah? Sure. Whatever. Not my point. But isn't it time we all said out loud why she's still here?

She's trying to win an election and become President, just not the next president. That's so five months ago.

Senator Clinton is over the 2008 election. She's known for some time now that 2008 is not her year. She's too smart not to know. Her husband is too sharp not to read all these tea leaves. He wrote the book on tea leaves. Thus, she's already running a race that, for most of us, hasn't even begun. We're all scratching our heads and wondering what she's doing in this race while she and Bill use the political world and all of us who follow it as unwitting pawns in their game. They play at both a higher and lower level than anyone else.

That's how dark the Clinton political machine is. They are more savvy and more driven than any of us. We're still worrying about 2008 while they've already got things rolling for 2012.

Tell me I'm wrong. Make a real case, one that is rooted in reality, for her to win the Democratic nomination in 2008.

Everyone is so close to it, no one's really taken a big step back from the day-to-day election coverage and spelled this thing out for the mainstream media. She's trying to cause real harm to Obama so he'll be that much more beatable in the fall when he runs against McCain. After the family McCain, the folks who are rooting for our aging Senator from Arizona more than anyone else are the Clintons.

Ain't politics a bitch?

McCain, at the ripe old age of seventy-one, could arguably be a one term president, and if nothing else, eminently beatable in 2012. So, team Hillary thinks to themselves, let McCain win this year (a very bad time to be President anyway). Let him deal with the mess in Iraq, let him hold that hot potato for a few more years while Hillary gets her ducks in a row for 2012. If she bows out "gracefully" at some point, you'd have to consider her a shoe in for front runner in the 2012 campaign. And, remember, the 2012 race will start the day after this next President move into the White House.

The long anticipated Pennsylvania primary is finally, mercifully upon us. What will the results tell us? In many ways, the answer is a resounding "not much". Look at this race through a macro, rather than micro lens. Does it really matter if Hillary wins Pennsylvania by five, ten, or fifteen points? What if Obama scores an upset and wins? In the end, a lot of the damage to the Democratic party is already done.

A Democratic President in 2008 was once viewed as an eventuality. Today, most passionate Democrats (myself included) are far too scared and realistic to start measuring the curtains in the West Wing. But, Hillary's quiet objective (laying the groundwork for her 2012 campaign) is well under way. A lot of us in the Democratic party can't sleep at night at the thought of what we have been doing to ourselves of late. I have a feeling that the Clintons are resting just fine...albeit in separate beds.

Comments

[Daisy1111]

You are overlooking another possibility -- articles have floated the idea that McCain could (would) at some point announce he will be a one-term president not seeking re-election.

[Pupster]

That may indeed be her theory, but she couldn't be more wrong about her chances. Her career is over. She's pushed the leadership beyond their tolerance -- which is taking a sure win and weakening the nominee, and thereby all the Dem tickets down the line. She is burning all her bridges as we speak.

Furthermore, four years from now a lot of her supporters will be dead. Harsh but true. And many of Obama's young supporters will become the heart of the Democratic support. These young people have no memories of Bill Clinton's 90's other than the salacious parts. They won't have a happy nostalgia about it.

Last but not least, four years down the line, if Obama is not president, a new generation of female prospects will rise up and these ladies will be fresher faces and have less baggage than Hillary. Four years is not a lifetime, but it can be a mighty long time if your name is Clinton.

[obamagramma]

She has no 2012 strategy - as a Democrat. All these Obama Kool-aid drinkers will dominate the Democratic Machinery in 4 years, & their support getting House & Senate members elected will ensure their party dominance. And we will never forget her tactics in this election. She is going to have to run with Lieberman.

[Countess]

There is one problem with this thesis which is that the more she is seen the more people hate her. I'm sure had you asked democrats when this contest began what they thought of Hillary Clinton most would have responded in a positive way. The last time I looked well over 50 percent of democrats not only have a low opinion of her as a candidate but even a lower opinion of her as a person. There are a lot of decent people in the democratic party so the question is: How the hell did they let her in?

[Aleka4]

Well imo, I don't think she is running for 2012, though I found your article very interesting. I think if she blows Nov for Obama, she will be considered a spoiler aka Nader, and she won't have much traction to launch a 2012 bid from.

No, I think shes still in it b/c she -has- to be: in the same way that gamblers -have- to win that next hand b/c they lost the house to loan sharks, lol. I think her and Bill made too many promises for when they are in the White House.

Plus I am convinced she really is a bit sociopathic and reality challenged.

[baschenis]

That Hillary is running for 2012 became clear when she started promoting McCain over Obama. Hillary operates on the assumption that people have short memories. By 2012 the current campaign with its appalling ugliness will be forgotten by all except the activists and political junkies who wouldn't vote for her anyway. The only other explanation for her staying in the race is that she is crazy or stupid--clearly not the case.

[JayJ1130]

Imagining sniper fire in Bosnia does indicate crazy as a possibility, no?

She is counting on short memories and she is also counting on people believing her when she says, see told you he couldn't win in the general! while not taking any responsibility for creating the republican memes that could hurt him in the general. I don't think it will work though and Obama will win the election against McCain.

[eddiestardust]

Actually people DO HAVE SHORT MEMORIES!

Apparently, everyone forgets that President Clinton was impeached! And it doesn't matter either...

But it should!

Judgement? Yes that's another question here as to WHY NO ONE CARES?

Of course, lots of folks seem to love Obama.....

And yet the polls show McCane even winning?

I wonder why?

Could it be that all those beer guzzling folks who didn't mind thinking about having a beer with Bush are STILL AROUND?

I think so....

[GoodGuysandBadGuys]

this is her strategy at this point but it's a failed one.

let's say mccain wins and now its 2012. the presidential race will again be between mccain, clinton, and obama.

she will not have a net gain in supporters by 2012, but obama will. trying to position herself for 2012 is a waste of time. she's already blown it. unless, of course, part of this strategy includes some foreknowlege that obama will suffer an "accident" between now and then. sad to say, but I would not put it past the clintons at this point. they truely have become monsters.

[AJH]

You missed a component she is also preparing to run against obama in a democratic contested primary in 2012 should he win.

Hard facts is our nation is in such a place Obama should he win will face a climate you can't turn around in 4 years and he'll be ripe for an establishment insider challenge. To do what this nation needs to become strong in 6-8 years you are going to seriously offend several power centers on both sides.

The next president is in all likelyhood a 1 term president much as carter was.

[pottylikearockstar]

Obama doesn't need help losing this race. This country is center, right. There's no way Obama will win the General Election.

[deekay]

EXACTLY...THERE IS NO WAY OBAMA WILL WIN THE GENERAL. He is so far left and most of this country is a little left and a little right. Just look at those Obama surrounds himself with...Ayers, Wright, Move On.org, Michael Moore for God's sake.

[pineapplegal]

Wrong, wrong, wrong - don't just point out the people/org­anizations YOU feel are far left because he has 1,000 more groups supporting him that are central. He has to be THE most "centered" candidate we've had in YEARS. McCain is as right as they come and Hillary - who the heck knows!! She's all over the board! Barak is REAL - he's you and me and he's no-nonsense.

[Lon]

This has become a very popular idea among Clinton opponents, but it doesn't make a lot of sense. Clinton is driving down her own negatives. If she loses to Obama and Obama loses to McCain, Clinton is not going to be the nominee in 2012. Are people forgetting how well Nader did in 2004, or thinking the Clintons don't know that.

Clinton is running the way she is because she knows that this is her only chance to be president. She says she is running to win in 08. And her actions only make sense if she is running to win on '08.

[tedbear]

This isn't a new theory, the one about Hillary gearing up for 2012. True, the Clintons have got lots of game, and to underestimate them would be foolish. She has ALOT of frightened people buying her story, right?!! The fact is that she is losing, but she is still in it. If nothing earthshattering happens to Obama,and if they can't cheat in some other way, they might try again in 2012. Alot can happen before then though, and then hopefully their greed with get them some more negative issues!

[anotherbozo]

My only question is why it took someone so long to write this article.

For at least a month, "Clinton '12" has been the 800-pound gorilla in the room. It explains everything.

[frustratedinohio]

This is the kind of article that promotes division in the democratic party. This is what has inspired revenge voting. It's useless pulp. You gain nothing by writing it, but you keep the hatred alive. Obama supporters believe you, so when he loses in the GE, it's actually Hillary's fault. Hillary supporters are insulted, so they vow again for the fiftieth time today to vote for McCain.

Write about family life Ed. You're so good at that. Don't fan the flames here.

[Daisy1111]

Good points - FrustratedinOhio. Bravo.

[scire]

maybe this is what's going on in her mind. Who knows? She certainly seems to have the naked ambition. But I think it's foolish and unproductive to speculate about it. And I'm more concerned about how Obama has let her bring him down to her level. He needs to just stop, because I'm getting ALMOST as sick of him now as I am of her.

[westwind]

When the expected Clinton Super Tuesday cakewalk didn't happen, and they started to go heavily negative, 2012 is what it has all been about. But she should take care that she doesn't totally soil her already fraying reputation by pushing the negativity too far, because a Democratic Party weakened by civil war and another presidential defeat, is unlikely to look kindly on another slash-and-burn Clinton candidacy.

[AnotherunhappyDemocrat]

I'm not into conspiracy theories, nor am I into this endless game of reading the minds of the Clintons. Nonetheless let's say there is an ounce of truth in your scenario. Among other things, it tells me that the Clintons are willing to fight hard, and I mean really, really hard for the presidency. We could have used some of that drive i 2000 and 2004, when it was painfully apparent that the Republicans were willing to go to war over the presidency and, each time the Democrats back down. Again, say what you will about the Clintons; at least they don't back down from a fight.

[anotherbozo]

Please explain why that is a virtue.