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Dr. Elaine Schattner

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Holes in the Evidence on the Value of Screening Mammograms

Posted: 09/28/10 08:00 AM ET

Last week's medical news centered on a New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) article on breast cancer screening by mammography. The paper, authored by an international group of epidemiologists and biostatisticians, suggests that mammography has only a small influence on survival. The findings, along with an accompanying editorial, got front-page attention like this in the New York Times:

"...it indicates that improved treatments with hormonal therapy and other targeted drugs may have, in a way, washed out most of mammography's benefits by making it less important to find cancers when they are too small to feel."

But I'd say the opposite is true: It's precisely because there are effective treatments for early-stage disease that it's worth finding breast cancer early. Otherwise, what would be the point?

Mortality in the U.S. from breast cancer
has declined by roughly a third since the implementation of wide-spread mammography screening around 1990. Despite so many advances in treating early-stage disease, the survival rate at five years for women with advanced tumors is only 25 percent. Metastatic breast cancer is quite costly to treat and remains incurable, even with treatments including new, expensive targeted therapies.

The new report:

The investigators looked at trends in breast cancer diagnosis and mortality in Norway over time after dividing the country into two sets of counties based on when a national screening program - which included mammography every other year for women between the ages of 50 and 69 - was implemented. The plan, which started in 1996 and required that each region establish a centralized, multidisciplinary breast cancer care team prior to participating, gradually expanded to include all of Norway by 2005. According to the study's authors, all Norwegian women between the ages of 50 and 69 years have been asked to participate in screening mammography since 2005; 77 percent have done so; Norway's nationwide cancer registry is nearly 100 percent complete. They evaluated a total of 40,075 women ("subjects") who received a diagnosis of BC between 1986 and 2005.

The main finding was that for women between the ages of 50 and 69, deaths from breast cancer fell from 25.3 to 18.1 (per 100,000 person-years) in counties where the mammography program was implemented around 1996. In counties where mammography was not covered until very recently, deaths from breast cancer also dropped: from 26.0 to 21.2 (per 100,000 person-years). Because breast cancer-associated deaths declined in all regions, regardless of whether mammography was offered, the authors concluded that screening doesn't account for most of the improvement.

By the authors' calculations, mammography accounts for roughly 10 percent of the enhanced survival since 1986. (This finding was not statistically significant.) They suggest that recent progress comes, for the most part, from better care and treatment of patients with this disease.

My concerns about this paper:

1. The average follow-up was only 2.2 years after diagnosis, with a maximum follow-up of 8.9 years. This is far too short an interval to measure the benefit of any sort of intervention in women who have breast cancer. When this disease recurs it's often after several years and, occasionally, decades after the initial diagnosis.

2. Among women under the age of 50 there was a slight increase in breast cancer deaths: A non-significant relative increase in mortality, of 4 percent, after the introduction of the screening program for older women. This worrisome finding is not adequately addressed by the authors. One might wonder: did fewer women in their forties go for mammograms after 1996, since they were only recommended and covered for older women? My question is whether reduced screening, now, among younger women is leading to an increase in breast cancer deaths.

3. Digital mammography was not evaluated in this study.

4. The authors detected the largest benefit of screening among women with Stage II breast cancer; there was a "marked" 29 percent reduction in mortality in that group relative to their historical counterparts, as compared to only a 7 percent reduction in mortality for women with Stage II tumors in areas where screening was not available. This observation suggests that mammography screening was life-saving for women with Stage II tumors. As an oncologist, I find this highly-plausible; the purpose of mammography is to identify tumors in early stage and spare women morbidity and mortality associated from advanced disease.

5. We should keep in mind the absolute number of lives saved in assessing mammography's value. Here, if the paper's conclusion is true -- that mammography reduces breast cancer deaths by just 10 percent, then in Norway -- with a total population of 4.8 million and 4,791 women who died in this study of breast cancer -- these results support that mammography spared approximately 480 lives over 20 years.

In the U.S., where some 45,000 women die each year of breast cancer, we'd save approximately 4500 lives per year if the added value of mammography is only 10 percent. If the benefit of screening mammography is higher -- say in the range of 45 percent, as was supported by a 2007 paper, also published in the NEJM -- then the value would exceed 20,000 women's lives per year. If the benefit is only 25 percent in terms of reduced mortality, that would result in over 11,000 lives saved, per year in the U.S.

My conclusions:

While the precise value of breast cancer screening by mammography remains uncertain, the recent paper confirms the marked progress in overall survival trends among women who have breast cancer. The question, really, is how much population-based screening helps women who are younger than 50, between the ages of 50 and 69, and older. Last week's publication was well-organized and carefully done, but it fell far too short in terms of follow-up to measure the potential impact of mammography on survival after breast cancer.

The Annals papers, which caused so much controversy last year, relied heavily on old data and did not at attempt to examine the efficacy of digital mammograms. What's needed, still, for public health policy in the U.S. is data regarding long-term outcomes after digital mammography performed in FDA-regulated, modern facilities by skilled, board-certified radiologists in the context of current pathology methods, decision tools and treatments.

As we espouse evidence-based medicine - which in principle should be cost-saving and spare patients from morbidity and mortality due to suboptimal care - we need think critically, more than ever before, about the limitations of medical knowledge and potential pitfalls in what's called "evidence."

 

Follow Dr. Elaine Schattner on Twitter: www.twitter.com/medicallessons

Last week's medical news centered on a New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) article on breast cancer screening by mammography. The paper, authored by an international group of epidemiologists and bi...
Last week's medical news centered on a New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) article on breast cancer screening by mammography. The paper, authored by an international group of epidemiologists and bi...
 
 
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drramsey
Your Partner In Health
11:54 PM on 10/17/2010
Mammography debate is an unfortunate distraction from self care. Regardless of whether the WHO claims that countries that do mammography screening every two years versus countries that do yearly screening have no difference in detection rates, you will always hear of that woman that would have been missed without it. Money and time in medicine is unfortunately never spent on understanding how each woman can regain her power rather than giving into the fear and mindset of “fighting” breast cancer. What about the approach to real prevention? Why aren’t millions of dollars spent on preventing breast cancer with bio-identical hormones? Why are mammograms suggested to wait until later than 40 years old now? We all know that as hormones decline, our risk of breast cancer increases. Let’s look at those studies that have been done that are ignored and keep our mammography standards where they are.
~ Dr. Theresa Ramsey, Author of Healing 101: A Guide to Creating the Foundation for Complete Wellness, http://www.DrRamsey.com, @DrRamsey
12:01 AM on 10/04/2010
Mammograms are not that useful-esp. for pre-menopausal women. Instead of trying desperately to justify their use, let's work on finding something better! Most positive results?=False positives. 85% of tumors found?=benign. All the surgeries, extra radiation, side effects etc. from false positives come at a cost.
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valeskas
catlover/book lover democrat
03:25 PM on 09/29/2010
A friend of mine had a mammogram and was found healthy, two weeks later she found a tumor under her arm. So they gave her an ultrasound and found cancer within 3 weeks after her mammogram. Why do we not give ultrasounds instead and look between the arms and the body, to make sure that there are no tumors there. A mammogram can just go so far. To everybody who is inflicted with this terrible disease I wish all of you the best.
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Mattie
My Daddy taught me to beware the good Christian
03:53 PM on 10/02/2010
seems reasonable, I'v had three biopsies,and each time I had the mamogram, they sent me immediately for an ultrasound
02:38 PM on 09/29/2010
Read The Last Well Person (Hadler), Should I be Tested for Cancer (Welch); Calculated Risks (Gigerenzer).

Here is a question for those over fifty to ponder: Is it better to die at 65 of breast cancer at home or at 85 in a nursing home of dementia or pneumonia? Pardon my cynicism, but there is no good outcome.
06:32 PM on 09/29/2010
It depends on the quality of life during the 20 years. Looking at it that way there is no good outcome from the minute we are born.
09:35 AM on 09/30/2010
Our culture has a hard time talking about death or preparing for it. A lot of people buy into this idea: take the right supplements, receive certain medical procedures, eat a certain diet, exercise and you will be youthful and have longevity. Maybe and maybe not? Those last twenty years may not be the longevity you wished for.
10:43 AM on 09/29/2010
It is difficult to agree or disagree with these studies as they are retrospective in nature. The issue that I am taking to point is the value of screening mammography. The discovery (screening) of a lesion versus the the diagnosis (with symptoms) of a lesion is what makes the difference in my opinion; however, does mammography do the job? My understanding of this article is NO. Screening does not contribute considerably to the "discovery" of such lesion when they are asymptomatic.
01:52 AM on 09/29/2010
How many of the women studied who developed breast cancer had been given hormone replacement therapy? Was that eliminated as a factor before they drew their conclusions?

I am still not sure that multiple mammograms don't contribute to developing cancer. I would much prefer the ultrasound approach, which at least isn't using x rays. I had 2 done in the Spring and they want me back again for another this fall. Why? To be sure, they say. So I will get 3 times the radiation they say is safe. And then I go to the dentist for that radiation, and what if I need an MRI for my arthritis in my neck? It all adds up.

The studies need to give ALL the relevant information and compare apples to apples. Also, record the women's diets, exercise routines, and other relevant information. They lump too much together in these studies.
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SionShankel
My opinons are all done sans pants
12:43 AM on 09/29/2010
I just took care of a friend who had severe breast cancer. Many tumors. It took three operations and then there was still one left when they went for the full mastectomy, that they dicvoered after the operation.

Not one single mammogram that she took ever showed any of these tumors at any point. Only x-rays and surgery helped.

It was an obgyn during a routine manual exam that made the first discovery.

She knwo has it on her chart NO MAMMOGRAMS.
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Caroline Sutherland
Hay House Author, Speaker & Health Expert
09:27 PM on 09/28/2010
I agree with Dr Elaine Shattner. Women need reassurance and mammograms give women that assurance. Conflicting research shows that mammograms may not be effective and may not be worth the enormous cost involved. I come from a medical family. I believe that that if there is a test that will give me the reassurance I need, I will get that test. I prefer Thermography, a digital imaging procedure that shows heat changes in the body revealing possible areas of concern before they manifest. I also believe that mammograms are important. I have mine every 2 years.
~ Caroline Sutherland, Author, The Body Knows, http://www.CarolineSutherland.com, @TheBodyKnows
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06:30 PM on 09/28/2010
What little I know of Breast cancer stats: Most cancers when discovered have been in the body for 10 or more years. While there is no "hard" evidence, I wonder about tests that are invasive and damage cells; don't damaged cells have a higher chance of developing into cancers? Biopsies/surgery: does metastasis occur afterward due to the surgery disrupting the body's natural tendency to "isolate" unhealthy tissue, as in the creation and "segregation" of tumors? I've lost at least three good friends to cancer in recent years, so my personal experience seems to point to tests/mammograms not being that effective or only affecting survival rates minimally.
08:22 PM on 09/28/2010
You know, children who have cancers can develop other cancers as they get older because of the treatments they received as children. Doctors seem to forget that our cancer treatment consists of poisoning the patient hoping the cancer dies before the patient does, and aiming radiation at already-damaged cells. Granted it works in some cases. But I bet down the line, new generations will see our current, state of the art treatments like we see bloodletting and lobotomies.
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booki
03:39 PM on 09/28/2010
i am an advocate of self exam.
i put a tight body suit on on,
and feel my breasts and under my arms..
i don't trust doctors.
12:25 PM on 09/28/2010
'While the precise value of breast cancer screening by mammography remains uncertain, the recent paper confirms the marked progress in overall survival trends among women who have breast cancer. The question, really, is how much population-based screening helps women who are younger than 50, between the ages of 50 and 69, and older. Last week's publication was well-organized and carefully done, but it fell far too short in terms of follow-up to measure the potential impact of mammography on survival after breast cancer" There you have it ladies and gentlemen... this is all about cost benefits analysis.
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tinkertoy
Smarten up the Chumps
02:28 AM on 09/29/2010
Death by spreadsheet.
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
10:57 AM on 09/28/2010
http://www.canceractive.com/cancer-active-page-link.aspx?n=1420

In both Denmark and Canada large population studies since 2005 have revealed that in women taking regular mammograms and women who have never had mammograms the death rates from breast cancer were exactly the same.

Age of the female being screened is significant, for example the ten-year trial quoted in the December 2006 Lancet which concluded that, where pre-menopausal women went for annual breast cancer screening, there was no significant reduction in breast cancer mortality – across the 160,000 women tested.
02:49 AM on 09/29/2010
very simple really, i am 47 today, i will NEVER subject myself to a mammogram
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
10:48 AM on 09/28/2010
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/713242

The low doses of radiation associated with annual screening mammography could be placing high-risk women in even more jeopardy of developing breast cancer
, particularly if they start screening at a young age or have frequent exposure, according to new research presented here at the Radiological Society of North America 95th Scientific Assembly and Annual Meeting.
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love5pets
A proud member of the FREE STUFF party!
10:58 AM on 09/28/2010
Poppycock! You're exposed to more radiation flying from NYC to Miami.
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NoraHuffposter
Liberal socialist
11:14 AM on 09/28/2010
For younger, pre-menopausal breast tissue, repeated (annual) screening can be risky as they tend to be sensitive to radiation. The radiation dose may be low but it is not insignificant and has a differential effect on younger versus older breast tissue with repeated screenings. In the end, the risk-benefit analysis makes it worthwhile to test those above 50 regularly as the doctor explained.
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
11:23 AM on 09/28/2010
And your basis for that statement is?

Ever hear of the "inverse-square law"? Basically, a radiation source half as close to you gives you four times the exposure? Which is why cell phones probably do cause cancer, because we hold them right against our heads. Like a mammogram, radiation right near your body, billions of times stronger than distant gamma rays.

My basis for this knowledge is I majored in Physics and worked 5 years as a medical imaging consultant and programmer, attended RSNA, consulted with radiologists. Yours?
10:59 AM on 09/28/2010
Actually:

A model compared the risk of increased breast cancer mortality from mammography radiation to the mortality benefit from mammogram screening, using data from studies of women with comparable radiation exposure and estimates extrapolated from a risk model. Screening was associated with a net positive benefit when the following assumptions were modeled: screening effectiveness at least 10 percent and onset of screening at age 40 or later; the positive effect increased for women who begin screening at an older age, and for women with a family history of breast cancer. Screening was associated with a net negative effect for average-risk women younger than age 40, both because younger women are more sensitive to radiation and have a lower incidence of breast cancer. The assumptions used in this model may not be applicable to women with BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations.

In sum, radiation risk from mammography is low enough that a screening mammogram program for average risk women over age 40 saves lives.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2361593/?tool=pubmed
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
11:19 AM on 09/28/2010
I accept independent research from other countries over anything done in the US. The US medical industry is for-profit, pay-per-service. NIH is just an industry front for them.

BTW I worked many as a medical imaging programmer and consultant, manned booths at RSNA for many years, consulted with radiologists in US and EU. France spends 9% of GDP, has better health and longevity, we spend 17%. That's the result of the profession you are going into, most likely for the money. "Denial is not just a river in Egypt", so of course you believe your industry does good.
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Dr. Elaine Schattner
12:16 PM on 09/28/2010
Thank you for sharing this link. -ES
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love5pets
A proud member of the FREE STUFF party!
10:46 AM on 09/28/2010
I think it's absolutely horrendous and a huge disservice to women - irresponsible, to write articles discouraging mammograms. All the rhetoric and hype about radiation, etc., is poppycock. Insofar as hit/miss tumors, the new digitalized units can pick up specks, even in the densest breasts.

Every single breast cancer survivor in my group - 10-19 years out, have gotten yearly mammograms, whose cancers were discovered through mammograms (and back 10 years the machines were quite different) and we all discuss articles that intelectualize and vilify mammograms and the disservice to women the net result being further fear and confusion, and harm. By the way, some in the group had a reoccurence - also picked up by mammograms.

To all you women out there reading this bilge, get your mammograms - it saves lives..maybe even yours.
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NoraHuffposter
Liberal socialist
11:16 AM on 09/28/2010
What the doctor wrote and the evidence suggests is hardly 'poppycock'. She did not suggest for one moment that women should skip mammograms. The risk/benefit analysis and evidence are there for all to see and there is a clear, albeit small, benefit from regular screening for older women. For younger women, the benefit is not so clear and there may harm for those at risk for developing the disease.
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belyeu
08:35 PM on 09/28/2010
"All the rhetoric and hype about radiation, etc., is poppycock"

Actually it's true.

I will bet you have zero hours of study or training in imaging or radiation protection.
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
10:34 AM on 09/28/2010
The US now spends 17% of GDP on health care, soon it will be 20%. We cannot afford every diagnostic treatment that saves some lives.

It's an easy calculation: take existing tests and figure what percent of disease they cure or prevent. I believe that number is less than 17%. So, as we add more tests, we will spend 100% of GDP on health care before we cure all disease.

Health care spending in the US now has negative results. That 17% of GDP is better spent on nutrition, housing, lots of things that would save more lives and extend longevity. Not to mention, make life worth living.

I'm certainly not against paying for mammograms, but all treatments must be cost-effective. At some point we will not be able to pay for diagnoses or drugs that help 1 in a 1000 people. We will have to become "death panels". We cannot afford to pay for procedures given to everyone, that only help a tiny fraction.
10:54 AM on 09/28/2010
I don't think I should have to convince you that investing in preventative measures, like screening, is the most cost effective method of practicing health care. By preventing expensive conditions like cancer, lots of $$$ is saved. We're horrible at preventative medicine in the US. Fortify our meals with trans fats and refined carbohydrates, let people get diabetes, then pay for cost of insulin, so it goes. The annual cost of screening mammography has been estimated at $8 ,410, 313 (http://radiology.rsna.org/content/234/1/79.short). The annual cost of Avastin, a new expensive chemotherapeutic now being used in breast cancer costs about a BILLION dollars a year (http://www.asco.org/ASCOv2/Meetings/Abstracts?&vmview=abst_detail_view&confID=40&abstractID=34791). That's just ONE drug. Simple math, I agree. Prevention is cost effective.
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
12:02 PM on 09/28/2010
I agree, preventive medicine IS cost effective. Too bad doctors don't practice it.

Checkups and screening are early-detection, not prevention. In no way do screenings and tests make you healthier. In fact, just the opposite: mammograms expose you to radiation, colonoscopies cause rectal tears requiring minor surgery in 1 out of 100 cases, etc.

The only preventative medicine doctors practice is prescription drugs that try to prevent disease caused by poor lifestyle and diet. And those don't work, for example researchers in BC showed that statins do not reduce hospitalizations or deaths; they don't even save lives, never mind money.

I agree with you on diet, we could save billions if we ate different. But doctors don't advice their patients on diet or even being overweight. I have a friend who is taking an anti-diabetes drug. I asked him if the doctor ever told him to lose weight; he answered "no".  In my opinion that is malpractice.

BTW Google "curcumin prostate cancer Alzheimer" and "cinnamon diabetes" if you want to know some real cheap, effective substances. I take capsules of each daily, cost pennies.
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love5pets
A proud member of the FREE STUFF party!
10:56 AM on 09/28/2010
Mammograms, PSA testing for prostate, Colonoscopies all save money in the long run because they catch and resolve problems before they ignite into more serious outcomes.

Now, if you're talking about some fanthom arthritic pain that comes and goes and you're told you need an MRI, or a CT scan or are sent for a sonogram, that's vastly different when other palliative measures should be considered first; i.e., an aspirin regimen, for example or nutritionals that are anti-inflammatory aides such as calcium/magnesium.

Getting yearly bloodwork as a preamble for annual exams is very important. Isn't that a "preventative" measure? Heart disease is epidemic - don't you want to know, even if you don't give a hoot, what your cholesterol/tryglecerides read?

Besides, with the new electronic system into place, it will save millions on duplicate testing. If you want to save money on healthcare, sart with the greedy pharmaceutical companies who scalp the public.
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
11:34 AM on 09/28/2010
No they do not. It is no less expensive to treat a woman whose breast cancer is discovered by mammogram than if she finds it herself. My sister has breast cancer, found by mammogram. They are recommending chemotherapy for her too but she is refusing it (knows it will just ruin what's left of her life, make her sick and disabled, and it doesn't work very well. They all get the same treatment, same cost, or maybe the cost of one mammogram cheaper.

PSA tests absolutely do not save money. All men eventually get prostate cancer. 40% of US men will fail a PSA test at age 65, but essentially none will ever get symptoms or die from it. But if they listen to doctors they will have expensive prostate surgery. PSA tests themselves cost, and they cause millions of needless surgeries. They are a total waste of money. I'm 60, male. If you become same look into the facts before you needlessly get your prostate removed.

I was in medical imaging. MRIs, mammograms etc are officially called modalities or "scans", but radiologists jokingly refer to them as "scams" because they are oversold and don't work very well.

But I totally agree with you on prescription drugs. They and scans are responsible for our rising health care costs.