In the last days of 2010 US-Turkish relations managed to escape yet another crisis. Backed by the Armenian diaspora, outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi sought to hold a vote on a controversial resolution that depicts the deaths of Armenians at the end of the Ottoman Empire as "genocide".
Turkey is extremely sensitive about this -- and put all its weight behind avoiding a Congressional vote. Relations between Ankara and Washington have already deteriorated substantially this year and the resolution would have put them under much more strain.
The Obama administration was surprisingly silent about the issue. But the last day of the Congress came and went and the resolution was not brought to the House floor, so providing much relief for those who care about the two countries' relations.
There are other pitfalls ahead. The US President commemorates the Armenian deaths every year on April 24th and the 2011 statement will be the next thing for the Turks to worry about.
The incoming Republican-controlled House is likely to be even more suspicious of Turkey's foreign policy priorities than was its Democratic predecessor. Turkey's 'No' vote on Iranian sanctions at the UN Security Council has been neither forgiven nor forgotten. Turkey's efforts to convince Washington of its case are unlikely to get very far.
As for Ankara, the Turkish government has said it will implement the UN sanctions -- but is opposed to pressure from Washington to make Turkish companies comply with unilateral US sanctions as well. Its resistance is unlikely to diminish following a recent New York Times report that the Treasury department has granted American companies exceptions from longstanding US rules against doing business with Iran.
The whole issue of Iran is likely to stay on the table as a cause of friction between Ankara and Washington.
Then there are the damaged relations between Turkey and Israel. These continue to be a cause of concern in both countries since this year's Mavi Marmara incident, in which Israel killed nine Turkish citizens.
This too is set to remain a headache throughout next year. Even though Washington has tried to strike a balance between two of its most important allies in the region, the Turks are convinced that the Obama administration is irrevocably behind the Israelis.
At least there will be a US ambassador in Ankara. For almost six months, the administration's nominee for the post, Francis Ricciardone, was held up in the Senate by the Republican Sam Brownback. But Obama has just pushed Ricciardone through as a "recess appointment" so Washington will have an envoy in place when Turkey holds crucial general elections in June.
Finally, there is WikiLeaks, a potential peril for both countries. The group and its media partners have almost eight thousand cables from the US embassy in Ankara -- more than from any other post. When the first 30 of them were made public, it was enough to shake prime minister Tayyip Erdogan's fragile nervous system. In one of the angriest responses of any country's leader to the leaks, he threatened to sue the authors of the dispatches, who painted an unflattering picture of him as an authoritarian. President Obama soon called Erdogan to offer his regrets and the two men seemed to agree that their relationship would not be affected.
Easier said than done. As soon as more WikiLeaks documents emerge, Turkey's conspiracy-theory machine will whir into action again, leaving common sense struggling behind. At a time when anti-American sentiment remains extremely high in Turkey, the documents could whip up emotions further in the elections.
In 2010 there were so many bumps on the road that two countries' ride became distinctly unpleasant. It looks like 2011 will be tough as well, if relations do not dive into an abyss.
Let's not forget that Turkey decided to get involved in an ongoing war between Hamas and Israel by sending a ship with self proclaimed martyrs looking for a violent confrontation.
Ultimately this was a further signal of Turkey's slide towards Islamism and the Iranian theocracy which is a supporter of Hamas.
Farrakhan Dogan was a citizen of the USA.
Those who were killed are listed here:
http://www.salem-news.com/articles/july122010/mavi-marmara-dead-tk.php
Once they decided that they need to deny the Genocide, however, the modern Turks implicitly assumed responsibility for the acts of the Ottomans, whom they try to defend and justify.
Adding insult to injury, Turkey has been blockading Armenia since 1993, causing huge damage to that country's economy and visiting hardship upon its population. Since Armenia has never harmed Turkey in any way, this is nothing but an unjustifiable act of aggression against a sovereign country. That the international community (whatever that means!) is relatively silent and tolerant of that big-bully behavior is simply shameful; that it allows Turkey to continue the blockade while hypocritically vociferating against the Gaza blockade – is nothing short of scandalous.
The "deaths of Armenians"??? Between 600,000 (if we are to believe the Turks themselves) and 1,500,000 (as per Western scholars) lost their lives in about 3 years. The vast majority were (undeniably) non-combatants -- men, women and children. What did they "die" of -- flu?
It is undeniable that these people were massacred. At best, the Turks can claim that these massacres were not a full-fledged genocide, because there was no central intent to exterminate Armenians. However, given that AT LEAST 1/3 (but probably many more) of the Armenians in the Ottoman Empire were massacred, this is not a credible thesis.
The Turkish government is giving up alot of good will built up in the west by not supporting Iran sanctions and by appearing sympathetic to Hamas.
The IHH terror-linked group is planning another flotilla in late May to coincide with the Turkish elections, and expect many more controversial actions from the man pushing Turkey to the brink of becoming an Iranian client-state rather than a future EU member.
I find this prediction by Daniel Pipes to be convincing about the future of Turkey and Iran:
http://www.danielpipes.org/9123/islamist-turkey-secular-iran
"Daniel Pipes (born September 9, 1949) is an American writer, and political blogger who focuses on criticism of Islam and Islamism.[1] Pipes is the founder and director of the Middle East Forum, a conservative[citation needed] think tank, as well as the founder of Campus Watch, a controversial[citation needed] organization which states its mission to be critiquing poor scholarship concerning the Middle East, but which has been characterized by some critics as a vehicle for harassing scholars critical of Israel.[2][3][4]"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Pipes
If you're suggesting Turkey will be the dog and not the tail in the new Islamic extremist world, that might be, but it still doesn't raise the prospects for the future of the Turkish democracy.
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=pm-harshly-responds-wiki-claims-says-will-sue-us-diplomats-2010-12-01
Do you think that idea has merit?