On June 23 British people will vote whether to stay in the European Union. The consequences of a decision to withdraw from the EU cannot be overstated.
There will be intended and unintended consequences that will shape the economic and political future of Europe. President Obama and the leaders of all major European countries (including Britain) are calling for British voters to vote to keep Britain in the EU. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warned that exit from the EU would have a negative impact not only on Britain but also on Europe as a whole. Most international corporations doing business in London oppose the idea of "Brexit" and warn, that the consequences will be a loss of jobs and a possibly extended period of financial uncertainty. Surprisingly, as the chorus of establishment leaders in the "remain" camp grows, the louder the polls are indicting the "exit" numbers are increasing.
There are many reasons why British people may be ignoring political and economic establishment's support for the EU. One major reason for voting for "exit" appears to be a rejection of the fundamental idea of the EU: "free movement." Free travel between EU members is the corner stone of the European Union. It means simply that no visa is needed to enter, live and work in any member country. Rejecting "free movement" is a way of taking back control of who enters the country and in effect preventing immigrants from coming into England to work. Another reason appears to be a belief that Britain somehow subordinates its own interest in co-operating within the framework of the EU. A third reason is the rejection(as we see in the shocking success of the Trump campaign) of the governmental establishment whether it be the press or elected officials.
If the vote is for "exit" it is likely, that Scotland will seek independence from England. In 2014 Scottish independence was narrowly defeated. The movement for independence has already indicated that they want another vote if Britain leaves the EU. Scotland is likely to exit the British Empire and want to stay in the EU. It is very possible that companies that presently have major offices in England will move their offices to Scotland. Hence, Scotland stands to gain a great deal if Britain exits the EU.
While naturally American's attention has been on the remarkable election campaigns this vote is being watched carefully in capitals around the world. Britain is one of the most important members of the EU and one of America's most important allies. Should it leave the EU the ripples will be felt around the globe. If only because all major western leaders are calling for Britain to remain in the EU and a successful vote for exiting from the EU will underline just how little influence the western political establishments have over the British population. In an odd way the Trump campaign is a mirror of the same issues in Britain: immigration, belief that too much has been given away in trade negotiations, and a rise in rejection of political establishment.
While the link is not identical; it is possible a successful vote to exit could suggest that Trump could actually have a chance of winning the US election. A result unimaginable 6 months ago, just as 6 months ago the Brexit vote was unimaginable.