Most Brexit “leave” voters support an immediate withdrawal from the European Union. A majority of Republicans would prefer a nominee other than Trump, but don’t want the convention to nominate someone else. And 50 years after the passage of the Freedom of Information Act, public opinion on information and security. This is HuffPollster for Tuesday, June 28, 2016.
IS THERE REALLY A “REGREXIT” MOVEMENT? - Adam Taylor: “If you've been reading about Britain's vote to leave the European Union over the past few days, you may be reaching that conclusion. There seem to be plenty of pro-Brexit voters who now feel they've made a terrible mistake….Such stories have quickly become viral hits among online readers. In the spirit of Brexit, these attitudes even have their own media-friendly nickname: Bregret or Regrexit….Unfortunately for those people, the data we have on Bregretters is not convincing. Although there is no shortage of "leave" voters expressing regret to journalists, more than 17 million Britons voted to leave the E.U. A few dozen — heck, even a few thousand — regretful 'leave' voters are not statistically significant: The difference between the 'remain' and 'leave' camps was more than 1 million. At best, what we have right now are individual anecdotes. What we'd need to get an accurate picture of Bregret is really representative data from polling companies….Of course, there will be plenty of hand-wringing about whether such a poll could really be accurate....But whatever you think about the limitations of polls, they provide a better snapshot of a country than a random interview with a journalist.” [WashPost]
Polling shows no one thought “leave” would win, but no signs of regret - Two-thirds of those who voted to leave the European Union thought “remain” would actually win, according to a post-Brexit poll conducted by SurveyMonkey on June 24. Of those who voted to leave, 59 percent said they thought “remain” would win by a little, and an additional 9 percent thought staying in would win by a lot. The poll also confirmed a substantial split in voters’ thinking about issues facing the country -- a 42 percent plurality of “leave” voters said immigration is the most important issue, compared to only 6 percent of “remain” voters. The plurality of “remain” voters said the economy is their biggest concern. Even “remain” voters aren’t happy with the current state of membership in the European Union, though. When asked what the British government should do, only 28 percent of the “remain” voters said the membership should continue in its current form. Sixty percent said the U.K. should try to negotiate a new partial membership agreement. Seventy-five percent of “leave” voters said the U.K. should withdraw from the E.U. immediately. [SurveyMonkey]
In the U.S., Republicans are most likely to favor Brexit - HuffPollster: “The United Kingdom’s recent vote to leave the European Union is also causing some divisions on this side of the pond, a new HuffPost/YouGov poll finds. The majority of Americans aren’t paying especially close attention to the story — while 44 percent say they’ve heard a lot about the referendum, 51 percent say they’ve heard only a little, or nothing at all. Accordingly, many aren’t quite sure what to think about the results. While 33 percent of Americans approve of the U.K.’s decision to leave the EU, and 32 percent disapprove, the plurality, 35 percent, aren’t sure. Just one-third of the U.S. public has strong feelings either way. Republicans, though, are all in favor of Brexit. Fifty-nine percent say they support the move, in contrast to just 17 percent of Democrats and 32 percent of independents….Similar partisan divides are evident in Americans’ views of their own country’s role in the world. A near majority, 49 percent, say the U.S. should pay less attention to problems overseas and concentrate on problems at home….Democrats are evenly split on the merits of an active foreign policy agenda, with an equal 45 percent choosing each option. Republicans, however, lean toward the more isolationist option by a 23-point margin, 58 percent to 35 percent.” [HuffPost]
OVER HALF OF REPUBLICANS WOULD PREFER SOMEONE ELSE TO TRUMP - Mark Murray: “Just 45 percent of Republican voters say they are satisfied with Donald Trump as their party's presumptive presidential nominee, while 52 percent say they would have preferred someone else, according to results from the latest national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. By comparison, the numbers are reversed for Hillary Clinton among Democrats - 52 percent of Democratic voters are satisfied with Clinton, and 45 percent prefer someone else. GOP attitudes about Trump break along ideological and educational lines. By a 53 percent-to-45 percent margin, conservative Republicans say they prefer a different nominee to Trump, while moderates are split 49 percent to 49 percent. Maybe more tellingly, 58 percent of Republicans with a high-school education or less are satisfied with Trump as the party's presumptive nominee, versus 60 percent of Republicans with a college degree who want someone else.” [NBC]
But they don’t want to dump Trump at the convention - Hannah Hartig, John Lapinski and Stephanie Psyllos: “There has been a lot of talk among Republican Party elites and political pundits about whether the Republican Party should retain Trump as the nominee or move to nominate a different candidate at the convention. A majority of Republican and Republican leaners—67 percent—said if it were up to them, they would have the delegates nominate Trump at the Republican convention. Three in 10 Republicans said they would open the convention and choose another candidate.” [NBC]
Both Clinton and Trump are making gains in favorability within their parties - Lydia Saad: “Since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June, Hillary Clinton's favorable rating among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents is up slightly to 71%, compared with 68% in April and May. Her image is now partly restored to what it was at the start of the year when 74% of Democrats viewed her favorably. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has maintained higher favorable ratings among Republicans and Republican leaners since he emerged as the sole Republican candidate in May compared with earlier in the year. His favorable rating among Republicans averages 64% so far in June, the same as in May but higher than the 54% to 56% in the three prior months. His current favorable rating also exceeds the average 61% he earned from this partisan group in January. At the same time, Clinton and Trump have each lost ground over the course of 2016 among independents who lean toward neither party. Because of this, the candidates' national favorable ratings have stayed still or declined slightly, despite recent improved ratings from their own partisans.” [Gallup]
THE PUBLIC HAS ALWAYS HAD MIXED VIEWS ON PRIVACY AND INFORMATION - Kathleen Weldon: “Fifty years since the Freedom of Information Act was first passed, the country is still debating how much transparency in government is appropriate. While the public has widely supported greater openness for decades, some concerns remain….In recent years, polling questions about the overall idea of transparency in government have been written with an assumption of the desirability of openness. An Allstate/National Journal poll in 2012 found that only 30% thought the government was described somewhat or very well by the phrase 'transparent and open about their business practices.' A 2013 Reason-Rupe poll found that 61% of the public thought the Obama administration had not lived up to their expectations about transparency and making the government more open. A 2016 Fox poll similarly found that 59% of Americans thought the Obama administration had mostly failed at running a transparent administration. Despite greatly increased access to government information in the fifty years since the passage of the Freedom of Information Act, and some concerns about privacy and safety issues, polls indicate that the public continues to want greater transparency in government.” [HuffPost]
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TUESDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-New Morning Consult polling finds Hillary Clinton gaining support in the general election. [Morning Consult]
-Donald Trump is making small gains among evangelical Republicans. [Gallup]
-Nate Cohn uses the exit polls from the primaries to refute the theory that the Democratic nomination was stolen from Bernie Sanders. [NYT]
-Barbara Norrander explains why high turnout among female voters could help Clinton. [WashPost]
-Kathleen Dolan writes that gender stereotypes have little impact at the ballot box. [WashPost]
-Jonathan Ladd argues that divides in the GOP may give Trump a disadvantage with the news media. [Vox]
-Pew Research finds white and black Americans worlds apart on views of race and inequality. [Pew]
-Coffee remains Americans' preferred answer to a case of the Mondays. [Ipsos]