The rising threat of jihadi terrorism, a military clash over China's expansionism in the South China Sea, and Donald Trump as president -- one of these things is not like the others, and it's not the one you'd expect.
According to a report published by The Economist Intelligence Unit on Thursday, the prospect of conflict in the South China Sea poses a lesser risk to the world's economic stability than the other two threats.
Yes -- that means the EIU, a research and analysis group associated with The Economist magazine, believes a Trump presidency would be just as risky as the threat of jihadi terrorism. Both threats are tied at sixth place on a list of the world's top 10 biggest risks to the global economy. (The possibility of a hard Chinese economic crash ranked first and a renewed cold war ranked second. Meanwhile, a clash in the South China Sea tied for eighth with a U.K. vote to leave the European Union.)
The EIU's report calculates risk intensity on a 25-point scale, taking into account both the probability that an event will occur and the impact it will have if it comes to pass.
The prospect of Trump winning the U.S. presidential election and the rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilizing the global economy are both "high impact" threats that have a "moderate probability" of occurring, according to the EIU.
"In the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war," the analysis notes. "His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the US) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond."
The EIU further condemned the presidential candidate for his "exceptionally right-wing stance on the Middle East and jihadi terrorism, including, among other things, advocating the killing of families of terrorists and launching a land incursion into Syria to wipe out IS (and acquire its oil)."
The report says it's doubtful that Trump will defeat his likely Democratic challenger, Hillary Clinton, but concedes that it isn't impossible.
Should Trump win the presidency, the report predicts that "virulent" opposition from Democrats and the Republican establishment would limit his ability to pass more radical policies, but warns that "such internal bickering will also undermine the coherence of domestic and foreign policymaking."
Here's the full list of global threats from the EIU report:
Editor's note: Donald Trump is a serial liar, rampant xenophobe, racist, misogynist, birther and bully who has repeatedly pledged to ban all Muslims -- 1.6 billion members of an entire religion -- from entering the U.S.
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