While Democrats are spending a lot of time talking about the House of Representatives 2018 elections, which is very important, the single most critical thing Democrats can do is target governors’ mansions in 2018.
No elected officials in the United States will have more power both to push back against this White House and protect what is left of the integrity of the 2020 US Elections than our state governors.
“The Democrats’ chances in governors’ races are far better than anywhere else on the map.”
Let’s look at several important reasons why:
1. U.S. governors appoint many of the state officials who control local and state elections. This includes enforcement – or not – of any state laws linked to voter suppression. Governors can also instruct attorneys general of their states to challenge federal orders. If there is an action taken in your state that is unconstitutional, your chances of seeing it rectified are most impacted by having a democratic governor.
2. Governors set the tone in their states. They can also drive their state toward, though do not explicitly control, adopting progressive standards, such as the California auto emissions regulations.
3. Governors have a lot of oversight of state court and prison systems, which will be critically important both for protecting individual rights and increasing participation in elections.
4. Most important, governors can veto the legislature. So more democratic governors, especially if they win in states with GOP-controlled legislatures, are the most impactful way to block bad laws, far more so even than the courts.
So, what is the outlook for the Democrats in governors’ elections in 2018?
That’s the exciting part – it’s amazing. The Democrats’ chances in governors’ races are far better than anywhere else on the map.
Thirty-six states are electing a new governor in 2018. Yes, 72% of U.S. states are holding a race for governor. If you want to make an impact, donate to them.
“If Democrats can take control of those swing states... they may well be able to roll back many of the voter-restriction laws that the GOP put in place before 2016...”
Of those 36 states, only eight are currently held by Democrats: California, Oregon, Colorado, Minnesota, New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. All except Pennsylvania voted for Democrats in 2016 and, despite PA governor Tom Wolfe’s unpopularity, the broad unpopularity of the GOP in the current political climate and Pennsylvania’s historic taste for blue governors makes it unlikely Democrats will lose any of these states.
By contrast, Republicans have to contest 29 states ― almost all that they currently control.
Of those states, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, and Maine are all swing states that have term limited or retiring Republicans, which makes them excellent targets for the Democrats to take over. New Jersey, which has the current most unpopular governor in the country, Republican Chris Christie, has a good chance to elect a Democrat in its election this year.
Indeed, if Democrats can take control of those swing states, and use the GOP unpopularity to pair it with gains in the state legislature and at the local level, they may well be able to roll back many of the voter-restriction laws that the GOP put in place before 2016 (and will undoubtedly put in place between now and 2018) before the 2020 elections.
In addition: there are four very moderate Republican governors in blue states – Massachussetts, Vermont, Maryland, and New Hampshire – who have spent a lot of time bucking the national GOP lately and are currently popular in their states. If Democrats do well in the states above, they could also either capitalize on the general GOP unpopularity to win these states as well, essentially swamping the governors’ own personal appeal, or, if they still win but in an otherwise dismal national GOP performance, these governors’ actions could move them closer to being political independence. Indeed, we have already seen this start to happen with each of them in turn.
There are also three Republican governors up for re-election in blue states who are unpopular - Bruce Rauner in Illinois, Scott Walker in Wisconsin, and Susan Martinez in New Mexico, which makes them prime candidates to fall in 2018. Wisconsin, especially, would be a major prize for Democrats.
Of the remaining states, Republican governor Sam Brownback is term-limited in Kansas but he ranks as the second most unpopular governor and Democrats just ran 20+ points ahead of their 2016 results in a special election. Interestingly, as with much of the mid-South, Democrats running on progressive-populist platforms have a long history of winning governorships in the state, so that could be a surprise outlet for Democrats to exploit. Similarly, popular Nathan Deal of Georgia is term-limited and, with that states’ historic liking of Democratic governors and the demographic changes that have started turning it purple, it could be a toss-up state in the right national environment.
So, all in all, Democrats, if they exploit the national environment and both Donald Trump and the national GOP remain at sub-40% approval ratings, could stand to gain as many as ten or more GOP controlled governorships in 2018. If they do that, it will do more than anything else on offer to shift the balance of power in our politics.
