There's an old saying: "It's an ill wind that blows no good". Meaning that, typically, a set of circumstances that screws over one person or group will have a positive or at least neutral effect on some other person or group.
Looking at the college standings last night, I wondered about the fallout from the John Brady firing at LSU, as the team from Baton Rouge struggles to compete in the SEC under Brady's ballyhooed replacement, Trent Johnson.
The background goes like this. John Brady led the LSU Tigers to a Final Four berth in 2006. Sadly, StF hadn't been invented yet, or Brady's star player "Big Baby" would have stood alongside Big Ant in our pantheon. Anyway, success did not follow success, and Brady's next two teams went 17-15, then 8-13, leading to his mid-season firing. Assistant Butch Pierre had an interim cup of coffee, making way for Trent Johnson to move over from his successful gig at Stanford in 2008. Duke Assistant Johnny Dawkins took his place in Palo Alto. Brady hooked on at Arkansas State as a rebound position.
Has this been bad for all involved? Let's look at the ramifications Brady's firing had on the principal cast members: coaches Brady, Trent Johnson, and Johnny Dawkins, and the LSU, Stanford, and Arkansas State basketball programs.
Trent Johnson at Stanford
80-48 in four years. Three NCAA tourney appearances, one Sweet 16. One NIT berth. Two Lopez brothers.
Trent Johnson at LSU
36-17 in one and a half years. One NCAA tourney appearance. Last year's surprise 27-8 record came with a first-place finish in the SEC and a tourney win over Butler. Last year's RPI of 37 has plunged to 174 this season, and the Tigers haven't won any of their four league games so far.
28-23 in one and a half seasons. One CBI semifinals appearance. Zero Lopez brothers. The Cardinal are currently 8-9 overall, but they've been able to win two games in the Pac-10, which has taken the SEC's place as the most crap-tastic power conference in the country this season. Stanford won't likely make the postseason, but neither will (nearly) anyone else in the league.
John Brady at LSU
192-139 in eleven seasons. Four NCAA tourney appearances, including a Sweet 16 and a Final Four; Two NIT berths. Four losing seasons, bookending his tenure.
John Brady at Arkansas State
23-24 in two seasons. Going inside those numbers, we see some nascent success. Under Brady's predecessor, the Red Wolves were 10-20 (4-13 Sun Belt). Brady moved three of those losses into the win column in his first year in Jonesboro, and has his team leading the league with a 5-1 mark as of today. In addition, the Wolves' RPI has risen, from 243 last year, to 181 this season.
As of this moment, I'd have to say that John Brady has landed on his feet. It's entirely possible that his Red Wolves could take the Sun Belt auto-bid and be the only one of these three schools to play in the NCAA tournament this year. I'm no Brady apologist; his inability to build on LSU's success was pretty bad, but he should have been allowed to finish out the year. He clearly has some coaching acumen, so maybe he just needs some help with recruiting, assuming he ever gets back to the land of free-flowing dollars.
Dawkins is in a holding pattern. As we noted, Johnson left Stanford when the Lopez brothers did, so we'll have to see if Dawkins can find similar players who can qualify academically at the elite west coast school. It's not in the cards this year, so year three will be crucial.
Johnson is the baffler in this group. He lost a superior player from last year's squad in guard Marcus Thornton (21.1 ppg), but retained an experienced nucleus of Tasmin Mitchell and Bo Spencer, each of whom has stepped up his scoring. 6'7" Storm Warren has become a double-double threat, with averages of 13.7 ppg and 8.7 rpg. Johnson has lost badly to young coaches like Anthony Grant at Alabama and Darrin Horn at South Carolina. Most recently, LSU handed the other Tigers of Auburn their first conference win, dropping to dead last in the SEC West.
It's tough to recruit basketball talent at football-mad Louisiana State, but Johnson already has some good players in Baton Rouge. His inability to put them in a position to win consistently may point to other problems on the bayou.