We're Not Sure "Close" Means What Howard Fineman Thinks It Does

The headline for the Newsweek columnist's latest: "Why Is the Race So Close?"

Doesn't that have a very early-September feel to it?

Any way, Fineman publishes a long laundry list of reasons why Obama should be waaaay out ahead in the polls:

What impresses me--and should give Obama himself pause as he considers a possible victory--is that this race is far closer than it should be.

It seems odd to us that Fineman, who gets paid a handsome salary to watch presidential campaigns, thinks Obama's lead in the poll, which hovers around 7 percent, is somehow modest. Any campaign pro will tell you that, mathematically, that translates into an enormous lead in terms of raw votes.

Secondly, Fineman of course understands that presidential campaigns are won on a state-by-state basis and that, in the end, national polls are somewhat useless. But in his column about how close the White House race remains, Fineman remains dutifully silent regarding the data coming in from swing states. Our guess is Fineman's silence reflects the fact that virtually all the surveys in the last four weeks have shown unmistakable movement toward Obama, which means the race for electoral votes, right now, is not "close."

Let's look at the latest electoral vote projections at RCP:

Obama/Biden 286

Toss Up 97

McCain/Palin 155

Last time we checked, trailing by 130 electoral votes less than three weeks before Election Day did not mean the race was "close."

Originally posted at the Media Matters for American blog, County Fair.

Comments

[pons1595]

I read a post here over 6 weeks ago that laid out with cruel logic that it is to the benefit of the MSM to contend that the race is "close." It is a conscious effort to keep us watching their crap. My own thought is they hope it is close with a chance for that liar to win.

[flabingo]

I voted in Florida. One hour and forty minutes wait. Went at 3:00 to avoid the crowd.. After seven hours only 600 people voted. Disorganized, poorly managed, and disappointing. Most people in line voted democratic. Large turnout of African Americans. Very encouraging if you are a democrat

[flabingo]

The effect or Fineman is positive is positive. Work harder.

[flabingo]

I voted in Florida today. There was a wait of almost two hours. Most of the people were democrats who
were willing to stand in line. They were open for eight hours and less than 800 voted in eight hours, or less than two per minute. The process and the skill of the workers in scary. Get involved unless you don't care about your children

[waarpe]

Inconceivable!

[JRsNana]

I just spoke to my brother who lives in small town Tennessee. His wife's sister has already voted - for Obama. Her husband would divorce her if he found out so it's this big family secret. She tells everyone she "of course" voted for McCain. This is the Obama effect.

[Sparty1]

I love that. Whisper 'Thank you' for me. We'll take that kind of vote ANY DAY!

[JRsNana]

Will do.

[JustifiablyParanoid]

Hear Hear!

[Liberoservative]

Thank you... I have always thought that the "Obama effect" will never be reported or recorded... but it is out there......

This latest tactic of the McCain campaign to go negative is backfiring enormously.... I have no idea what time zone or era they are living in but they seem to forget that we have already gone through Reverend Wright and Ayers... and Rezco and Soros and whoever else they want to tie to Obama by assoication... this is such old news and to bring it up now smacks of desperation on the McCain campaign.....

Give me a fracking break... we have had ENOUGH of you, GOP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It is time to take our Nation back and to set it on the true path that our founding fathers wished for us....

Obama/Biden 08/12

GOBama!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Sumocat]

In Fineman's defense, he referred to the race as "so close", which is relative not absolute. And as we learned in 2000, receiving more votes does not guarantee victory. I'm not calling this one for "That One" until inauguration day. :)

[nutty4tahoe]

It's appalling that 43% of the voters would still support McCain and Palin after the many ways they've proven themselves unfit for the presidency/vice presidency.

That demographic plays itself out where I live, in ruby-red Kansas where the majority of voters consistently vote for people and programs that are bad for them. They can also be racist, especially the older generation (I can say that because I'm 62 years old and white myself). Here the voters are not big fans of McCain and/or Palin, but they've convinced themselves that Obama and Democrats will raise their taxes and take away their gun and no evidence to the contrary is good enough for them. They're deaf and they're blind. Their vote is anti-Democratic and has nothing to do with the real issues and the candidates. I'm convinced not even the threat of nuclear attack would budge them.

The poll numbers show that this country is completely deadlocked and split. The states are "united" in name only. The people are not.

[KBinIA]

I also wonder about that 43% (or 44% at the moment, according to RCP) who apparently still support McCain/Palin. It doesn't seem to matter how many established conservative writers and leaders point out that Palin is totally unqualified for the position she is running for. It doesn't seem to matter how many mistakes the McCain campaign makes, or how smoothly the Obama campaign is run in comparison. I really don't understand it. I just know that I'll be happy even if Obama only wins Iowa by 5 or 6 points, instead of the 10 to 15 points suggested by recent polls. That type of "close" I could live with.

Obama/Biden '08 & '12

[pons1595]

We all must come to the realization that the average IQ of the American people isn't very high. Most of these folks are voting like their daddy voted; they have no mind of their own because they were never taught how to think. As a former school teacher--let me say I am fairly sure of what I say.

[nian]

A white, POW, war hero is running against a black guy named Barack Hussein Obama and they wonder why it's "close" Obama has run such a stellar campaign and maintained the high road with regard to every aspect of the dirt and slime that has come his way. I'm actually surprised its not much closer.

[old lady]

Close .. as in close to a landslide,perhaps? Or close as in.. Close shave for all the talking heads at MSNBC who will be purged if he pulls it off ? Jimminy- in this failed economy everybody needs a second income!

[nutty4tahoe]

Maybe Fineman is trying to help with Obama's get-out-the-vote effort. The more Obama supporters think it could be close, the more likely they are to vote.

[NamelessGenXer]

The more the MSM talks about how close this race is, the happier I am.

15 Days. No Complacency! Overwhelming Victory!

Get out the VOTE for Straight Democratic Ticket ~ Tuesday, November 4.

[Martee]

Well, luckily, Newsweek chased all their conservative readers away when they ran that inflamatory picture of Sarah Pallin last month! (Ridiculous then -- ridiculous now). This must be their attempt to win back all those cancelled subscriptions. Of course, any difficulty with consistency trying to demonize last month's cover with this month's diatribe will be conveniently ignored. Conservatives are like that -- dismiss what you don't like -- scream what you do like. Ah!

[zuffaloo]

He's hinting that race is still a factor - "We still have a chance!!! Xenophoia everyone!!!"

[Novelene]

Great point....and while we're asking, what exactly does ''close'' ties to Wm Ayers mean? Why has no one asked McCain this?