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Eric D. Knowles

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What Does Science Say About the 47 Percent?

Posted: 10/02/2012 7:21 pm

What has crystallized in the last few weeks of the 2012 presidential campaign is nothing less than a battle between two competing theories of success -- about where success comes from and the role of government in fostering it.

However, this question, which both campaigns have signaled will feature prominently in the upcoming presidential debates, is not one of competing values, personal philosophies, or party platforms. In fact, it has a right and a wrong answer, and social science can tell us which is which.

Mitt Romney's "47 percent" comments reveal the governor's belief in two alternative paths to success. On the one hand, some people achieve their goals because they possess the "right stuff" -- talent, intelligence, and drive. Alternatively, people can get help from external sources -- including, of course, the government. For Romney, aptitude and aid are inversely related: the more of one you have, the less of the other you need.

President Barack Obama's "you didn't build that" remarks express a theory of success very different from Mr. Romney's. According to Mr. Obama's theory, success is most likely when individuals and the environment, including the government, both bring something to the table. For Obama, good environments are no substitute for aptitude and hard work -- rather, they allow these qualities to most fully reveal themselves.

The scientific literature speaks clearly to the debate between these two theories of success, and it tells us that Mr. Obama is right.

Consider a recent study in which a team of researchers examined how genes and socioeconomic status combine to foster the development of cognitive abilities in young children.

The authors followed 750 pairs of identical and fraternal twins from the ages of 10 months to two years, measuring the growth in each child's cognitive abilities over this period. By examining the relationship between cognitive development and the twins' varying degrees of genetic similarity, the researchers were able to estimate the extent to which cognitive ability is genetically determined. The socioeconomic status (SES) of the children was judged through a combination of measures, including parental educational attainment and household income.

What the researchers found was striking. Among high-SES children, genes were strongly predictive of age-related increases in cognitive ability. In other words, children from relatively well-to-do families performed better or worse depending on their genes. These kids developed up to their intrinsic potential. Yet at the lowest levels of SES, genetic variation wasn't related to cognitive development at all. This means that, if you're poor, even having the right stuff doesn't guarantee good developmental outcomes.

This research indicates that poor environments limit children's opportunity to develop aptitudes that they are, in a sense, genetically "destined" to acquire. Like a good seed planted in poor soil, even the best equipped of us cannot be expected to thrive in impoverished circumstances. This, in a nutshell, is Mr. Obama's theory of success.

The implications of this theory are clear: if we want the so-called 47 percent to succeed or fail on its merits -- a requirement from which Mr. Romney believes they are currently spared -- then the solution is more government assistance, not less.

Mr. Obama's theory of success also gains credence from psychological research on "stereotype threat," the experience of anxiety that results from awareness of being negatively stereotyped by others. Members of stigmatized groups often experience such threat in contexts where they know they are expected to do poorly, as when an African American student takes a test of verbal reasoning skills.

Owing to the anxiety caused by stereotype threat, students of color routinely underperform relative to their abilities -- a self-fulfilling pattern that only serves to bolster the negative stereotypes that give rise to threat.

Fortunately, recent research by Stanford University's Gregory Walton and Geoffrey Cohen has identified simple interventions that inoculate students from the experience of stereotype threat. For example, simply by increasing students' sense of "belongingness" in academic settings, the researchers drastically reduced racial gaps in academic performance. Protected from the effect of a threatening stereotype environment, minority students' true abilities shone through.

This work shows that inherent gifts and helpful environments are not inversely related routes to achievement, as Mr. Romney's theory of success would have us believe. Rather, as Mr. Obama asserts, creating a good environment is the only way of ensuring that individuals' aptitudes see the light of day.

If this is so, perhaps the government should be in the business of helping people after all -- through, for instance, progressive taxation that reduces financial burdens on poor families or affirmative action policies that might help change our stereotypes of minority and women professionals.

Studies like ones I've described repudiate the notion that ability and help are interchangeable routes to achievement (the Romney theory of success). Rather, social science corroborates Mr. Obama's contention that the government has a role to play in enabling its citizens to express whatever talents and aptitudes they possess to the greatest possible degree.

Eric D. Knowles is an assistant professor in New York University's Department of Psychology. He studies the psychological factors that influence people's political choices.

 
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What has crystallized in the last few weeks of the 2012 presidential campaign is nothing less than a battle between two competing theories of success -- about where success comes from and the role of ...
What has crystallized in the last few weeks of the 2012 presidential campaign is nothing less than a battle between two competing theories of success -- about where success comes from and the role of ...
 
 
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01:28 AM on 10/04/2012
Two questions: 1) How much genetic differences can we actually observe in children between the two groups when they are only 2 years old, and 2) Is it reasonable to equate "success" or "having the right stuff" merely to increases in cognitive ability?
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Brooke123456
God is ....(fill in the blank how you like)
10:30 AM on 10/04/2012
1) Genetic differences between all humans is minimal, between twins almost nil. These are established when the egg is fertilized, age has nothing to do with it.
2) While cognitive ability does not necessarily directly equate with "success", it certainly will indicate whether or not you have any chance at "success"....in the sense that you can be a responsible adult and provide for yourself...not in the sense that you will get rich.
03:36 PM on 10/03/2012
So it's all in their heads, after a fashion then...

And "Protected from the effect of a threatening stereotype environment," Tea Party aside, most people would consider that simply normal.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Carl Caroli
I just don't understand people
10:17 AM on 10/03/2012
When you water the garden to grow fruit, you water weeds as well. You don't starve the garden because of the weeds.
03:23 AM on 10/03/2012
Nonsensical.....having money does NOT equate to being a good parent:

Winning the lottery doesn't mean that you are going to read to your children.
Winning the lottery doesn't mean that you are going to do math flash cards with your children
Winning the llottery doesn't mean that your child will now get enough sleep
Winning the lottery doesn't mean that you will care enough to discipline your child.
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Alex Prior
Abyssum abyssus invocat
10:56 AM on 10/03/2012
That's true, but it is also not what the article was saying.

My parents were poor. Bright, but poor. They could have gone on to HIGH SCHOOL, but they had to work to support their extended families. Good people who spent their whole lives poor.

BUT my siblings and I got lucky. We lived in Australia. The government introduced free education (even through university) and free public health care (and I'd be dead if that wasn't available, I would have died in infancy).

That meant that while our parents were poor, we got a free education - and we used it to create small businesses and pay our taxes and employee people.

Could I have done it without that early assistance provided by government assistance? Almost certainly not. Am I happy to pay an extra 2% to level the playing field? Damn right I am.

And before you mock, I just sold my third start-up business and completed the whole capitalist dream. So government assistance to the poor really does work. If you won't trust the science, you can't reject 50 years of personal experience.
02:55 PM on 10/03/2012
I lived in Australia too...the FIRST question at the hospital was:  "DO YOU HAVE PRIVATE INSURANCE...." You're fibbing to the wrong person.  Caufield North, BTW...southeast of Melbourne.
11:00 AM on 10/03/2012
Nope, you are right. But the article did not SAY that, so your comment is pretty much totally irrelevant! It said that having more financial security (not "winning the lottery" but having a higher standard of living) meant that kids were better able to live up to their potential. In other words, the parent who has a decent paying job is more able to give their child good food and healthcare. Not having to work two jobs just to pay rent means they have TIME to read to their children, being home at night means they can make sure the kid gets to sleep on time, and having fewer worries about paying bills means they have more cognitive energy to teach and manage their children's behavior.
01:19 AM on 10/03/2012
Nice article. What's really ironic is that Obama's success seems to follow the Romney theory, whereas Romney's success follows the Obama theory. For instance, Obama thrived in less than ideal circumstances with an absent father, whereas Romney was the scion of a wealthy, well-connected plutocrat. Now, Obama is professing the virtues of good circumstances, whereas Romney is professing the virtues of self-discipline! How does that one work, Dr. Knowles?!
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My Mate Pat
Nobody's Nationalist
05:35 AM on 10/03/2012
Obama benefitted from a lot of help along the way, too - great schools, in particular. Both men are good proving examples of the points put across by Dr Knowles
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essbird
IOKIYANO
01:05 PM on 10/03/2012
Besides Pat's reply, when one cites social science, like quantum physics and baseball, you will always find exceptions and outliers. Just because the Royals beat the Yankees in a game does not mean the Royals are good or the Yankees suck. It's all about probability. So pointing to any individual as an argument against the theory does not disprove the validity of the theory.
01:32 PM on 10/03/2012
So you are going to equate our president and his rival with "just another data point"? While that may be sound statistically, that's not really the point of this post or website. By your logic, it should be of no interest at all that Obama and Romney espouse different theories of success - they are just two random guys in America!
I'm simply pointing out that Obama's story - one of overcoming obstacles like those he talks about his books - is largely a narrative of hard work, discipline, and luck. Romney was handed a silver spoon, born on third base and thinks he hit a triple, etc. So I find it ironic that Romney (and the right) love to spout off about hard work, individualism, work ethic, etc, while Obama is saying "you didn't get there on your own."
@Pat, yours is a similarly narrow opinion. I agree completely that no one succeeds wholly on their own. We are talking about matters of degree here, not absolutes.
11:14 PM on 10/02/2012
One of the best, most intelligent articles I have ever read on the Huffington Post. In short, our government should work FOR the people, not AGAINST them. Our highest values should be reflected in our government. Unfortunately, there is a fundamental difference in values between the rich and the rest of us.
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AnalyzeThisToo
At the fork in the road...veer left!
12:48 AM on 10/03/2012
Between Republican conservatives and progressive Democrats/liberals
03:27 AM on 10/03/2012
My ideals came from my poorly educated, Teamster-member father.

He would have rather eaten broken glass than take a handout.

So get off your butt and make yourself a better individual....a better employee....a better American.

BO MUST GO
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My Mate Pat
Nobody's Nationalist
05:37 AM on 10/03/2012
QED
Mary Zorski
Nothing to see here folks, move along.
08:44 AM on 10/03/2012
My Dad was much the same way. With Halloween coming up, I am again reminded of the fact that he would not allow us to trick or treat because he considered it to be nothing more than "begging door to door". But if he saw someone else in bad straights, he would have given them the shirt off his back. I guess that's the difference in yours and my households. I can't begrudge a little child having decent meals, or getting to go to a movie once in awhile, or all the other things average people take for granted. It may have been easier prior to these days to better yourself. With the effects of many, many years of trickle-down politics finally coming to a head here, the bar has been raised so high that "average people" are hard put to even put food on the table and a roof over their heads. Chidren do not thrive in these circumstances. They whither.
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ElBruce
11:02 PM on 10/02/2012
The problem with convincing conservatives of this is that many of them are religious, and therefore dualists. To them, there is a third factor beyond genotype or phenotype - the spiritual factor, or "soul" - which can be blamed for failure or praised for success. This gives them a "wild card variable" they can throw into any such analysis to make it say whatever they want.
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Kai-HK
Don't Share My Wealth! Share My Work Ethic!
10:34 PM on 10/02/2012
Nah...more simple than the above....American's have turned into marshmallow eaters

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_marshmallow_experiment
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Jay Daterman
Dump The Teapot
10:18 PM on 10/02/2012
Right wingers seem very inclined to view things in either or terms so that their thinking (such as it is) becomes very rigid with potential problem solutions which should be combined becoming mutually exclusive.

This problem has become particularly bad with the rigid uncompromising tea crowd constipating Congress. Time for a major national laxative to blow the tea out and get things moving again.
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demisfine
Often correct, NEVER right.
09:10 PM on 10/02/2012
We are NOT investing into our own infrastructure.
Every other civilized nation rebuilds their own internal structure as a way to secure more good things for their own people.
Not us.
We have to pretend we cannot afford to invest in our nation.
It's disgusting.
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Jay Daterman
Dump The Teapot
10:07 PM on 10/02/2012
Seems we can only afford more tax cuts for the already wealthy, corporate subsidies, and maintaining a vast military over reach. Well, actually we can't afford that nonsense but we seem to go on doing it like a drunk with cirrhosis who keeps drinking.
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AnalyzeThisToo
At the fork in the road...veer left!
01:03 AM on 10/03/2012
Republican controlled House of Representatives have prevented any help for people and the infrastructure. The bills start in the House, revenue spending starts in the House...no bills passed by the Republicans means nothing happens.

They have obstructed any bills except for the rich, which the Senate won't pass. Again, nothing gets done. The president's hands are tied most of the time.

Bills start in the House, if passed...they go to the Senate, if passed...they go to the president.

Obama is not to blame for the stagnant economy, the lack of jobs; Republicans turn down any bills because they hate the president, vowed to make him a one term president' Republicans are so racist they hated Obama before he was even elected.

Republicans have spent years lying and tearing down the president when in fact it has been the Republicans at fault for hurting all citizens...and they don't care how much we hurt.

Their goal has been to get enough voters angry and brainwashed into blaming the president, who will in turn use their own hatred to vote against the president and against their own best interests.

Vote Democrat Save America...Get the Republican Do-Nothings Out of Our Democracy!
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GravitonX
10^300 bosons could care less.
07:43 PM on 10/02/2012
Excellent article.
07:43 PM on 10/02/2012
Eric,

"If this is so, perhaps the government should be in the business of helping people after all . . ."

Actually, your speculation is mandated right at the very beginning of our Constitution--the part about promoting the general welfare.

P.S. Egalitarianism is anathema to the Romneys/Ryans of our nation. Instead, they advocate "meritocracy", which is doublespeak for Social Darwinism.
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MoMick
A voting male slut
12:18 AM on 10/03/2012
This and all of your other thoughtful posts are right on the mark.

Please continue.
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AnalyzeThisToo
At the fork in the road...veer left!
01:10 AM on 10/03/2012
They love Ayn Rand. Total selfishness at the expense of all others. Gee, that sounds just like Romney and Ryan.
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07:31 PM on 10/02/2012
i will use little words. mr. romney does not care for the 47 per cent. it is the bad part of the banana. you throw it away. that is what he said.

little words....