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Eric London

Eric London

Posted: December 8, 2010 06:19 PM

Method in the Madness

What's Your Reaction:

The tax cut compromise is less about ideological betrayal or spinelessness and more about generating economic and political recovery.

We may have dodged another Great Depression, but the unemployment rate hangs stubbornly near 10 percent six months after the "recovery" began. And among the less educated, unemployment is at 15 percent or even more. Simply waiting for things to naturally get better is not an option for the millions of Americans still feeling the intense pain of joblessness, bankruptcy, and foreclosure.

From day one, Obama and his team -- led by Larry Summers and Tim Geithner -- understood this. In early 2009, they passed a stimulus package bigger than most thought possible.

By early summer, it was clear that the first round of stimulus was insufficient to jump-start job creation, despite the public optimism emanating from the economic team at the White House. Due to the conservative counter reaction to round one, it was impossible politically to raise the issue before the election. If Democrats won the House, undoubtedly we would be looking at a second stimulus package in a lame-duck session. But the pasting delivered by the right sealed the deal and made another any additional stimulus based on spending an impossible dream.

But team Obama wasn't going to give up that easily -- because there are two ways to skin a stimulus cat: through tax cuts as well as through spending.

Smartly, Obama realized the best opportunity to get the largest tax package with Republicans was now -- while everyone wanted to take a pause from contact sports and show they could govern. Boehner and McConnell feel that way now, but they might not in February or July. So Obama boldly struck quickly and cut a deal that will inject one trillion dollars into the economy over the next two years -- compared to allowing an expiration of the Bush tax cuts.

Yes, he could have cut a better deal. Isn't that the definition of dealmaking? It always can be made better, including this one. The pure of heart progressive caucus would rather fight and be right, in June or July, than move forward on a deal right now. But that path would have delayed any eventual tax cut stimulus to a point in the future when it would be too late to have produced fast results.

Whatever you think of throwing in the towel even before Speaker Pelosi becomes Speaker Boehner, the injection of stimulus via tax cuts will happen in record time. Speed is the name of the game if the economy and employment is to create jobs in significant numbers in the next two years.

High unemployment is also a political death sentence -- ask Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush -- and read Gerald Ford's 1976 epitaph: Here lies a one-term president who ended his term with 7.7 percent unemployment. Only Reagan escaped their fate with a high jobless rate continuously plummeting in the lead up to the reelect. The current administration knows this history well and is determined not to repeat it.

The left shouldn't feel betrayed. Obama is a calculating political animal who knows that without a second term, liberal priorities will be shelved for another four or eight years; he can't afford to mire himself in ideological purity..

He's right: Reelection is key to the broader agenda. And that rests on jump-starting the economy to start producing jobs before the end of next year. The White House has made the clear-eyed calculation that the unemployed don't care a hill of beans about philosophical fights inside the Beltway. They care about results.

Hopefully, this dose of good policy will result in more jobs and less economic pain across the board. And just maybe, Obama in the White House until 2017.

 
 
 
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parlimentMike
Don't settle for less evil, demand good
11:21 AM on 12/09/2010
Not the unemployed, just some of the unemployed. The 99'ers are a significant portion of those left out. The people who get will be asking what have you done for me lately in '12, but the people left out now will remember it very clearly.
11:03 AM on 12/09/2010
In case anyone has missed it, I highly recommend Al Franken's eloquent and telling speech on taxes. I really hope people both listen to it and pass it along to as many others as possible. I think it's one every American should hear. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVURyaA9UWY&feature=player_embedded

This is and interesting "White Board" explanation from the White House - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOH6t6mxuJM&feature=player_embedded
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picaman
Conservatism is an Un-Christian lack of Empathy
10:57 AM on 12/09/2010
This is a strategy based on Pyhrric victories. For far lefties like me this administration has yet to take a real stand: Expansion of the Afgan war, Health Care without a public option, watered down financial reform (Hey thanks Chris Dodd!)

If this is truly part of a re-election strategy, one would think the far left would be thrown some kind of bone. Instead, chatter about a Grayson challenge increases.
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ewldest
I don't care "whose" war it is - end it now
10:25 AM on 12/09/2010
Insider gibberish. Nobody wanted to 'dodge a depression,' they wanted programs to end the recession - which they didn't get.
Anyway, you can't prove a negative - it's pointless to argue that because there is no depression Obama had something to do with that, since, afterall, it didn't happen (in other words you first have to prove that there was a depression looming, and accountancy and statistics won't get you that).
As for this ridiculous McConnell plan to extend the Bush-Obama tax gifts to the wealthy benefiting the middle class - since it includes reduction of revenue for Social Security, thus making dismantling that program inevitable (a move Obama intended to make anyway, as his Deficit Commiion signaled), I'm afraid that as this dawns on voters, as it will, they are not likely to find this 'compromise' so appealing in the long term.
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1johnf
What would Studs say?
09:25 AM on 12/09/2010
The current compromise might be instructiv­e to those of us who observe the Tea Party participan­ts. The November elections showed what misdirecte­d anger can wreak. The anger was real, but the focus of that anger was wrong. They should have been angry at the people who "drove the car into the ditch", not the people who were currently driving the badly damaged car. This compromise has created anger among progressiv­es. I think it's important to focus that anger in the right direction. The anger should be focused at the republican­s who, by their obstructio­n and willful attempts to interfere with the process of governing have created multiple crises within the country. Their single minded intransige­nce, threatenin­g to bring government to a halt unless a bonus is paid to millionair­es and billionair­es deserves our complete rath. It is the republican­s who are holding the government hostage. It is the hostage takers who should be the target of our rath. Rather than target the President (which is easy, because we want him to be an idealist rather than a progmatist­), it is time to get active and work against these liars, cheats, and hypocrites­.

Be angry, but focus your anger on the right target!
05:24 PM on 12/09/2010
Perhaps the president could focus his anger (rare as it may be) against the right instead of at the people who put him in office in the first place?

Maybe that would be the right target.
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GunnyJ
I do my best every time.
06:19 AM on 12/09/2010
Some asked for bold leadership, they got it, but not the kind they wanted so they are still unhappy. Such is the American attitude these days. President Obama is still the smartest person the room. Where were all of these fired up Democrats when we needed them the past two years? We learn two things here: 1. The Republicans are who we thought they are... Period! 2. The Democrats are a divided tent and always will be.
The fix? Watch the President.
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PunKinPai
Tact is just not saying true stuff. I’ll pass.
02:46 AM on 12/09/2010
Thanks for injecting a little common sense into the heated debate.
02:28 AM on 12/09/2010
Now, dash off a memo strategizing how stacking the SS catfood commission with privatizers and now he cuts a Republican deal to cut SS taxes, endangering the program just as Republicans take over, is somehow a progressive priority.
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alicemartin4
01:50 AM on 12/09/2010
Very good article. The President took a stand for the middle class and that is fact.
01:35 AM on 12/09/2010
If it's about recovery then why not just end free trade with communist China? Or why not just end H-1b work visas?
01:34 AM on 12/09/2010
the initial stimulus was packed with tax cuts to the tune of 40% of the overall package - that part was not "job creation"

summers and geithner are from the "kings of deregulation" set that brought us this mess to begin with: enough with the pretending that these people are interested in or capable of returning the country to economic sanity

"could have cut a better deal"... if he had tried at all yes, just what kind of deal do you think this is? I don't have to tell you, Arianna will tell you herself elsewhere on this same website

please stop pretending that "tax cuts" in any way shape or form is the equivalent of an intentionally structured jobs plan! the "compromise" of last night is not a jobs program, it is not additional stimulus
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alicemartin4
02:15 AM on 12/09/2010
Coulda, woulda, shoulda. There is alway something else that could have been done. You will never give him credit because you could not use him to get everything you want. Not going to happen. The fact is the President stood up for the middle class and the economy and we appreciate it. He was right that we don't care about rich people's taxes, we want results and he is trying to provide them. You will never give him credit for any thing because you cannot control him. He has shown you over and over that he is smarter than you and has the support of more people than you. His approval rating is 49% and you are only 19% of the voting block, who abandon him after 6 months and no matter how many names you call him, lies you tell about his accomplishment and complaint you make, the facts are still the facts. His real base is there for him and he for us. Go find another party to use and look like a fool like the tea party. As long as this President does what he thinks is right and gets results, he will be all right.
01:32 AM on 12/09/2010
I guess I'm the only one actually READING the article. Apparently some Progressives are convinced tax cuts are not a "stimulus" to the economy. They are a stimulus, but the bulk of the cuts have to go to the "consumer class" (the Middle Class). This proposal fits that criteria. There's no way in hell that a SPENDING bill is passing other than "maybe" unemployment benefits for extensions. There's no chance for infrastructure spending after the progressives "boycotted" the midterms. The original stimulus included infrastructure to the greatest degree, but Republicans pushed for tax breaks. The Democrats countered with tax breaks for the Middle Class, primarily, and small business to a lesser extent. This set up the "showdown" we have now. Instead of recognizing the total victory for the Middle Class tax cuts (that truly stimulate consumption), the progressives now focus on the top 2% and the "99ers", which actually are the SMALLEST GROUPS and have the LEAST IMPACT on the economy, in general. It's heart wrenching to see Americans struggle, but the reality is this, who is holding the progressives hostage? The "rich" or the "poor"? Or is it both, which explains their disarray and unexplained anger? I don't mean to blame the progressives, but this "outrage" is just ridiculous.
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alicemartin4
02:22 AM on 12/09/2010
I totally agree with you. Very well said.
01:03 AM on 12/09/2010
WOOHOO! Bravo Eric! Of course, you're a strategist so I totally agree. Strategists see the world through a different lens. Regardless, it's the clarity you bring to this issue that I applaud. I fully expect many writers to spew the soundbites (betrayal is the favorite) to get clicks and get appearances on TV and to sell their propaganda. It's America, I expect it. But I'm thrilled to see your article here on HuffPo. I know that I will not always agree with your opinion or analysis, but I welcome the challenge as a reader and commenter. There is just too much good in the "deal" to ignore. Take away the dollar amounts, look at actual percentages. Take away the fear of what Republicans "might do" and look at the reality that they voted for a HUGE deficit spending proposal (if they do). The ultimate target on spending is our "out of control" defense spending. It isn't Social Security, it's DEFENSE. When will the "progressives" ever learn, the opposition can say whatever they want, you fight with the FACTS and keep your eye on the ball! A $600 Billion tax cut to add to the deficit in 2012? Republicans will have a tough row to hoe!
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blaqntelligence
10:38 PM on 12/08/2010
AND...

“...what could you, or I, or anyone not walking in this president'­s shoes do differentl­y?
Personally­, playing a game of chicken with republican­s with this much at stake is not an option.
Maybe for some, that alternativ­e is acceptable but not for me.
I would like to hear the opinions of those actually collecting UIB.
I've heard the media, the politician­s and the activists screaming in outrage over this but what about those for whom that benefit is their only income?
One activist stated they wanted this president to fight on into next year "...Januar­y, February, March if necessary.­.."
Again, folks with jobs...goo­d jobs, in many cases...ar­e demanding the president play chicken with millions of people's welfare.
And finally, despite all that's scary about the economy right now, how does tossing several millions more into the mix with no income make it any less scary?â€
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blaqntelligence
10:34 PM on 12/08/2010
How right you, and they, are...
Posted elsewhere, earlier today:

“Am I missing something here?
For all this handwringi­ng about President Obama's betrayal of progressiv­e ideals, what should he have done, what were his choices?
Fight or compromise­.
I am one of those unemployed for over a year. I am also a single parent who rely on those unemployme­nt benefits to keep my family fed, a roof over our heads, and our utilities on.
Today, I honestly don't give a damn that the richest 2% get a few extra bucks, maybe I should but I don't. I am too busy being relieved that I have a little more time to possibly find a job. Too busy being relieved that a homeless shelter and a soup kitchen are no longer a very real possibilit­y for this month.
As a longtime viewer of the nightly MSNBC lineup, I'm feeling a special disgust for the attacks on this man from the profession­al left. They sit atop their multi-mill­ion dollar thrones and scream, curse, and pound the table because he didn't fight for ideals.
Here's a newsflash from an Obama supporter:
I cannot feed my family with ideals.
Until I find a job, if my benefits are cut off...bene­fits I've paid for...I will be out on the streets.
Who's door can I knock on, which of these angry pundits can I call to help pay my rent, heat, electric or water bill?
Food?
I thought not.â€
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
SSF
Republican no longer!
12:54 AM on 12/09/2010
Given our current political situation, President Obama made the best deal he could. Am I happy with the outcome? Hell no! But speaking as someone collecting unemployment benefits while looking for work in a hard-hit industry (construction), I literally cannot have my unemployment suspended for weeks, or months while Democrats and Republicans squabble over ideological talking-points; I'd end up on the street! Personally, I think it's great that we have a President who is willing to endure the attacks of political purists and do the best he can for ordinary folks.