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Eric Lotke

Eric Lotke

Posted: August 6, 2010 09:47 AM

Today's new unemployment report contains no news, just decimal point changes. It tells us what we already know, that times are bad. The question is whether our great nation can rise to the challenge.

Unemployment remains unchanged at 9.5 percent, with 14.6 million people out of work. In July, we lost 202,000 jobs in the government sector as the census winds down, and we gained 71,000 jobs in the private sector. African American unemployment grew fractionally worse to 15.6 percent, and teenagers to 26.1 percent.

But the micro details don't change the big picture. People are out of work and out of hope. Mortgages are underwater, savings are in the tank and fewer than half of grown-ups think their kids will be better off.

So what are we going to do about it? Our 200 year old democracy ended slavery and turned the Great Depression into the New Deal. Can we thrive in this century too?

We know what doesn't work. Asset bubbles and trade deficits. Tax cuts and supply side economics. Shopping for cheap stuff made in China.

The House of Representatives new Make it in America initiative makes a conceptual break. It challenges conventional wisdom and brings us back to our industrial, productive past. The knowledge economy is good, as far as it goes -- but a country still needs things. Cars, computers, pencils and iPods. If we don't make those things ourselves, we have to pay someone else for them. Our deficit in goods dwarfs our surplus in services. During the eight years of the Bush administration, America accumulated a surplus of $755 billion in services -- but a $5.9 trillion deficit in goods.

2010-08-06-Bushaccountbalance.JPG
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Manufacturing brings new wealth into the country and puts people to work in good, middle-class jobs. Every manufacturing job supports as many as four other jobs, as production workers buy meals, legal services and advertising from other sectors of the economy.

The House manufacturing strategy starts out with small steps. Last week the House passed the Clean Energy Technology Manufacturing and Export Assistance Act (H.R. 5156), which offers modest subsidies to help our exports of clean energy products compete with the subsidies of other countries. It passed the National Manufacturing Strategy Act (HR 4692), which would require the administration to develop an overall manufacturing strategy and update it regularly.

But at the same time, the House failed to pass the Investing in American Jobs and Closing Tax Loopholes Act (H.R. 5893), which eliminates tax breaks for companies that ship taxes overseas. Republicans were unified in opposition. Thus, our government continues to subsidize companies that move jobs offshore.

Small steps and setbacks in the House, likely death in the Senate ... but at least Democrats are trying. Voters can see where Democrats want to go, and who's stopping them.

In June, Barack Obama spelled out the challenge: "[A]s we emerge from this recession, we can't afford to return to the pre-crisis status quo. We can't go back to an economy that was too dependent on bubbles and debt and financial speculation. We can't accept economic growth that leaves the middle class owing more and making less. We have to build a new and stronger foundation for growth and prosperity."

Earlier this week speaking at the AFL-CIO, Obama reminded people that it took a decade to drive us into the ditch, and it will take that long to dig us out. "When you're in a car and you want to go forward, you put it in "D." You want to go back in the ditch, you put it on "R."

We know what we need to do. Put people to work rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure. Fix our potholed roads, our overcrowded schools and our bursting water mains. Create new infrastructure like wind turbines and solar cells. Lay the tracks for high speed rail, the 21st century parallel to the interstate highways of the 20th century and the transcontinental railroads of the 19th. And make the parts in America! Put us to work building our economy of the future, like our grandparents did for us.

Yes, it will cost money. But don't worry, money is out there. Those top end Bush tax cuts are worth $43 billion annually. Restoring the estate tax for multi-millionaires brings in $50 billion. A financial transaction tax brings in $177 billion annually, and stabilizes our financial system to boot. Draw down our troops and rein in Pentagon procurements gives us another $100 billion every year for productive endeavors. That's without even trying bold new sources of revenue. More progressive taxation at the top end. Confronting corporate power and redirecting subsidies that go to agriculture, oil and pharmaceutical giants. Ferreting out the rest of those tax subsidies to move production offshore. We can do this.

Stop counting votes in the Senate! Introduce the bill. Put it to a vote. Dare the Republicans to go on record against a jobs program like this.

Today's news is unemployment figures. In November, there's an election. Which way do we want to go? Back to Bush? Or working together to build a new foundation? Forget the micro data. Remember who we are.


This piece originally appeared at the Campaign for America's Future.

 
 
 
 
 
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11:51 PM on 08/08/2010
Mr Lotke seems to think there is virtue is over-paying for goods and services. Perhaps someone with a good job, say as a research director at some NGO, can afford to pay 20% or even 40% more for “cars, computers, pencils and iPods,” but the working class simply cannot.

Therefore, in order to safeguard the interests of the vast majority of Americans (to quantify, 97.38%, or 301.33 mn people who are not manufacturing production workers), it should be Policy Priority No. 1 to ensure that protectionists are shouted down.

After all, the USA is made up of 100% consumers, only 2.61% of whom are also production workers.

Where’s the consumer lobby?
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Jay Jefferson
10:23 PM on 08/06/2010
Obama has made a shocking declaration in the following video. He was just caught on tape saying: “People say that maybe I’m not American citizen, some people said I have a forged birth certificate. Well first of all, it’s true, I’m not American, I was not born in Hawaii, I wasn’t born in the United States of America. I come from Kenya…”

http://www.eutimes.net/2010/08/obama-tells-students-its-true-im-not-american-i-come-from-kenya/
03:08 PM on 08/06/2010
I am a Democrat, and this has to be the ultimate exercise in trying to put a good face on horrendous news. The economy is not longer gaining jobs -- after 18 months of the Obama Presidency and a gigantic stimulus package ("that will keep the unemployment rate under 8%"), a flawed and probably unconstitutional health care bill ("that will go a long way toward resolving our long term economic crisis") and two continuing wars ("the expenditures for which will be winding down in 2009 and 2010"). Economists say that the economy must create 300,000/month for a solid year to bring the unemployment rate down a single point (to 8.5%, still horrendous). So, after the President has put his policy into place and given it more than a year, the economy is back to losing jobs. But, Mr. Lotke finds this to be "no news, inconclusive." Clearly, even the President is not swallowing this argument, since he fired his top two economic advisors. Mr. Lotke's approach is similar to MSNBC's. They reported the new numbers this morning, found them insignificant, then changed the subject -- for the entire day. We Democrats need to understand that this is not working. Either the President changes course, or we need a new candidate in 2012!
03:56 PM on 08/06/2010
Change the course to what? Do you want him to reverse course? Do you want him move to the left or to the right? As I see it the Democrats have constantly pulled the punches, taken only half measures to resolve the problems and so we have a tepid recovery. We are where we because of conservative econmoic polcies as implemented by both the Republicans and the Democrats. The Republicans are crazy and the Democrats are wimps. The American people deserve better.
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John Ison
Marketing and Merchandising Expert
02:46 PM on 08/06/2010
Great Post - if we can just get past the GOP obstruction we can solve this crisis - I hope America wakes up soon to the destruction and pain they are sowing across the country with the sole goal of gaining back power to re-start the failed policies that got us into this mess in the first place.
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Gidster
Not so much Liberal as I am anti evil.
03:25 PM on 08/06/2010
More than GOP obstruction...The whole idea of "Free trade". Since no American will take 11 cents an hour, companies have moved to countries where 66 cents a week is a living.

There is simply no incentive to hire Americans. The trade deficit is enormous, but the same folk that profit on outsourcing jobs, profit on importing cheap low quality goods that unemployed Americans can afford.
01:22 PM on 08/06/2010
Look at this...8/4/2010

General Motors will invest $500 million to produce a new vehicle and eight-cylinder engines in a plant in northeastern Mexico, a company spokesman said on August 4.
$500 million of our tax dollars!!!

http://industryweek.com/articles/gm_to_build_new_vehicle__at_plant_in_mexico_22462.aspx
01:05 PM on 08/06/2010
Look where GM is investing $500 million of our tax dollars to produce a new vehicle & eight-cylinder engines.

http://industryweek.com/articles/gm_to_build_new_vehicle__at_plant_in_mexico_22462.aspx
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gerald4
licensed mechanical and electrical engineer
12:53 PM on 08/06/2010
Dear Mr. Lotke:

I agree with you that real wealth is created and/or acquired ONLY when the members of a family (or a nation, city-state, island, tribe, etc.) plant, grow and/or harvest something of commercial value from the earth; extract something of commercial value from the earth; provide professional services (medical, legal, dental, engineering, architecture, accounting, land surveying, technology, etc.); and/or manufactures or constructs something of commercial value that is consumable (or permanently useful for income or rent); and then trades, sells, leases or rents these items and/or services to parties outside of their family, in return for a net transfer of gold, currency or commodities from other parties outside of their family into their own family.

The members of that family can then reflect their real wealth and financial security with the net positive accumulation of grain, gold, cattle, jewels, land, buildings, factories, commodities and/or other marketable products for reserve use in times of emergency and/or also to raise the standard of living for the members of that family.

We must correct the Foreign Trade Balance by any means necessary.
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gerald4
licensed mechanical and electrical engineer
12:44 PM on 08/06/2010
We need to repeal all of the "Free Trade" laws and other anti-business laws that were created by both the Democrat and the Republican members of the US congress and the US Senate in the last 40 years, and then the corporations (and/or individual businessmen) could not outsource the manufacturing jobs to foreigners because of the extremely high US import tariffs that we could re-impose to protect our US jobs.

Free World Trade of products and commodities means that every US business must compete internationally based mainly upon price of the product to the final customer (and/or by bribing various government officials). Labor cost is normally the greatest cost component of most products and commodities, closely followed by environmental costs. The country with the lowest labor cost and environmental cost normally gets the product sale and the manufacturing jobs, and the import of foreign exchange currency in exchange for these products.

If the USA had innovative products that foreigners did not have, then the USA could get higher prices for those products, until the foreigners copy the US inventions.

The US government has also destroyed the US Technical database that was previously used to create those innovations, patents, and inventions, and it will take generations to re-create that capability that won WWII and gave US citizens a bountiful lifestyle for a couple of decades after WWII.
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Dave Thinkster Paulson
A concerned American moderate
12:29 PM on 08/06/2010
Operation MindCrime started 30 years ago, when Reagan sold the notion that government is the problem. Belief in that myth still lingers today, providing the fertile ground for the misinformation machine known as the Republican Party. They know that the true power does still reside with The People, but they also understand that the power is only realized in unity, and that The People can be divided through the unethical use of lies and distortions intended to play on fears and prejudices.

We are today living in an America designed and produced by Republican policy. Concentration of wealth is at its highest level since the Great Depression. The GDP continues to grow but unemployment is steady and wages are dropping. We’re told that we have a “jobless recovery,” which for all but the most wealthy means NO RECOVERY AT ALL. The very term is oxymoronic and should cause fits of cognitive dissonance.

This is class warfare. It’s between the top 2% and everyone else. Sadly, far too many conservative middle class Americans have mistakenly taken the wrong side. They’ve bought the lies and fight toward their own demise. The solution is not in raging against these people but in understanding their concerns and sharing the facts. The line had been drawn in the sand: http://www.thinkersjam.com/democrats-draw-a-line-in-the-sand/, we need but get everyone to understand that.
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picaman
Conservatism is an Un-Christian lack of Empathy
01:30 PM on 08/06/2010
fanned
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Gidster
Not so much Liberal as I am anti evil.
03:28 PM on 08/06/2010
x2 F&F!
12:29 PM on 08/06/2010
New private sector jobs are essentially non-existent. Public sector jobs are slowly disappearing as states and cities struggle with lack of revenues (because people aren't working and businesses aren't selling as much--because people aren't working, etc...) The solution is not to take more from the remaining people with incomes, but create a larger base of those paying into the system. With jobs! With income, people will buy what they need at the best price. Until we compete on price, we will not be competitive vs. international producers. We cannot compete on price because we have chosen to inflate the cost of production through various requirements. Whether they be benefits for auto workers, onerous pensions for government workers (paid for by every worker in the private sector), a system of lawsuits that balloons the cost of health care, or other progressive ideologies, you libs have picked our poison and our prosperity as a nation has all but died.
I am so sick of hearing about infrastructure and green jobs! Whoe does this benefit? Union contractors spreading asphalt. What about the administrator out of work already. Nothing! What about the self employed guy who lost his cleaning company. Nothing! What about the guy who used to frame houses? Nothing! What about the woman working for a caterer? Nothing. Handouts to political cronies. Nothing more.
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Gidster
Not so much Liberal as I am anti evil.
03:36 PM on 08/06/2010
So do you propose we create jobs that pay Americans 88 cents a day to work?

Because that is the problem here, foreign labor costs are can be so low, and tariffs are low on "American" companies re-importing their foreign manufactured goods.

Blaming Liberals for the economic policies of the Bush administration is simply bias, not fact based.

Conservatives allowed the outsourcing of 12 million jobs, Conservatives failed to oversee the financial industry that led to the collapse.

Perhaps you should start there.
11:16 AM on 08/06/2010
wWhen I was laid off in 2007, it had nothing to do with an economic turndown. I worked for a large hospital who basically "jumped on the bandwagon" and used the excuse of money to re-arrange their departments and lay people off. And millions of Americans experienced the same thing. Companies decided to go full speed ahead and expect their employees to do a whole lot more with less: cuts in hours, salaries, staffing, and capital expenditures. Putting fear into the minds of employees has caused a lot of mental strife--I have friends who every day worry about being let go.
And now, companies are not re-hiring because they believe they can continue to run their businesses with skeleton crews, and it's only a matter of time before the American workers have a revolt. Companies are keeping their profits because of greed, not because they are unsure about the economy. So remember, businesses are self serving. Nothing is improving for the workers of this country.
Democrat in the South
Empathy, the most important word
10:27 AM on 08/06/2010
Everyday I read article after article written by prize winning economists and everyone is saying the same thing. They know what needs to be done to get the economy moving in the right direction. But the people who hold the power to make change is still debating with the greedy,corrupt, self-serving, politicians who bankrupted the country.

Americans are being manipulated the same way third world countries are by corrupt, greedy politicians that keep their people uneducated and powerless so they cannot fight back.

Why are we still listening to the stupid people?
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ThePeoplesKey
Writer/General Disreputable Rogue
10:23 AM on 08/06/2010
It is becoming clearer and clearer as we progress toward a bonafide depression the solutions you outline above have little chance of succeeding until we do something about our banking system in this country. The current "too big to fail," "bail out the elites" fractional reserve banking system was destined for failure from its inception. If the money supply is increased, prices will rise, creating even more inflation. (Yes I said "inflation." Measuring market pricing without including shelter, food, and energy is an illusion of prosperity. Real food prices alone have risen over 30% in the last few years by my calculations.) The fed reporting that inflation is flat or less than 2% is delusional. The only way out of this mess is to get more dollars into the hands of average citizens and out of the hands of the elites without increasing the money supply. Exactly the opposite of what we've done so far. With the bailouts and guaranteed or socialized losses to wall street and banks we are essentially paying banks twice for originating loans. They have no skin in this game. Until they do, you can basically kiss this country goodbye. It was a wonderful experiment for a handful of people for a short time. Thanks for the memories . . .