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Eric Margolis

Eric Margolis

Posted: March 21, 2011 06:37 PM

After Bombing Libya, What Now?


Here we go again! It's Iraqi-style shock and awe for Libya.

With deep déjà vu we see US cruise missiles being launched, Libyan AA firing helplessly into the night sky, and the burning wreckage of armor and vehicles on desert roads.

As with the Iraq, the assault on Libya was preceded by a huge barrage of anti-Gaddafi propaganda and steaming moral outrage by western media and politicians. American TV crews rushed to Libya to witness the wicked colonel get his comeuppance. None went to Bahrain or Yemen.

The attack was led by France. President Nicholas Sarkozy just suffered his own bout of shock and awe when polls showed his conservative party trailing the hard right National Front of Marine LePen. Blasting Arabs is a sure-fire way to win back the hearts of France's rightwing voters. So "aux armes, citoyens!"

Bien sure, the French attack had nothing, nothing at all to do with unsubstantiated claims by Gadaffi's number one son, Saif, that Libya has secretly financed Sarkozy's last election campaign.

The ever-bumbling Arab League had first given a tepid OK to a no fly zone to stop Gaddafi bombing rebels civilians, but then recoiled as western warplanes began attacking Libyan ground targets and civilians -- including Gaddafi's compound in Tripoli.

The fireworks were most impressive. To no surprise, Libya proved a total pushover. Its feeble military was routed. But the nasty question then surfaced: what is the objective of this operation?

Wars are waged to attain political objectives. Killing enemy forces is merely the means to this objective. The UN mandate is only to protect civilians, not to remove the Gaddafi regime. The US is targeting Gaddafi but claims -- wink, nudge -- that it is only after command and control targets.

But Gaddafi has been through such attacks before. In 1987, he took me by the hand and led me through the ruins of his residence which had been demolished a year earlier by a US bomb that killed his two-year old daughter.

For the moment, the most likely scenario is that Libya will end up split into warring western and eastern camps. The western powers -- minus Germany and Turkey who wisely refused to join the Libya attack -- are likely to arm and support the Benghazi rebels. It's also noteworthy that the African Union failed to endorse the anti-Gaddafi operation.

Gaddafi still retains some support in western Libya and from important tribes. So welcome to a Libyan civil war. Shades of Afghanistan and Iraq, where the US intervened to support rebelling minorities and ended up stuck in the middle of maddeningly complex civil wars.

Little is known about the rag-tag Benghazi rebels, now adopted by the western powers. Britain's MI6 intelligence service has maintained some links with them for over a decade. But the rebels have no organize military power -- which suggests western special forces and intelligence agents will soon become involved. This writer has reported their presence in Libya for many weeks.

It is possible that the Senoussi tribe will emerge from Benghazi's chaos and reassert its historic overlordship of eastern Libya. In the 19th and early 20th centuries, the Senoussi were a powerful force that spread an Islamic revivalist movement from the Egyptian border to Morocco, and across much of the northern and middle Sahara.

The Grand Senoussi was one of the first authentic Arab national rulers and opponents of European colonialism of the modern era. Gaddafi overthrew the last Senoussi, the doddering Ibn Idris, in 1969. I met a number of the senior Senoussi clan in Tripoli and have no doubt they would be ready to assume leadership of anti-Gaddafi forces.

But what then? Are we to see a Libya riven by civil war? How long can a very expensive no-fly zone be maintained? Is the west ready to risk getting sucked into another conflict in the Muslim world? Are not Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia and Pakistan enough?

Interestingly, the Libya operation is being run by Washington's new Africa Command, a harbinger of growing US military involvement in oil-rich Africa. Yet here in Washington there seems to be no clear plan for an endgame in Libya, not even a notion of what to expect. Even normally hawkish Republicans are expressing concern.

There's another big problem with Libya. Everyone hates the prolix Gaddafi, particularly Arab despots who he routinely blasts as "old women in robes," "Zionist lackeys," and "cowards and thieves." But the Arab world grows restive as it sees US-backed despotic regimes in Bahrain and Yemen gunning down protestors. Or watching reports of US air strikes killing large numbers of Pakistani and Afghan civilians. And, of course, seeing Israel using heavy weapons against Palestinian civilians.

America's glaring double standard in the Mideast and Muslim world is a major reason for growing hatred of our nation.

Events in Libya may end up further enflaming such feelings.

America would be hailed as genuine liberator of long-suffering Libyans if it also intervened in Bahrain and Yemen -- and perhaps Saudi Arabia -- to protect civilians from the ferocity of their despotic governments and promote real democracy.

But it's only oil-rich Libya that is getting the "humanitarian" treatment from the US and oil-hungry western European former colonial powers.

A fractured Libya will not only curtail oil exports, it will open the gates to a flood of African emigration to southern Europe. Gaddafi has long been cooperating with France, Italy and Spain to halt the flow of such economic refugees. He now threatens to open the flood gates. There is also a risk that the Libyan conflict could spread into neighboring Mali, Chad, Niger and Sudan.

Turkey has been proposing sensible diplomatic solutions but no one is yet listening to peaceful plans. Once again, the west is gripped by that old crusading fever, a combination of moral outrage at the wickedness of the unspeakable Saracens, combined with a pulsating lust for their riches.

The question President Obama should be asking himself is: given our $1.4 trillion deficit, can we really afford another little war whose rational is unclear and outcome uncertain?

copyright Eric S. Margolis 2011

 

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05:03 PM on 03/22/2011
What now? Why, it's on towards manufactured reasons to carry the fight to Iran and Syria. Didn't y'all get Hilary Clinton's memo?
No matter. President Obama will be doing his part by keeping us informed - as he's pushed to rid the area of every last muslim government that Clinton and her oil-thirsty, crusading handlers view as a challenge to Western and Israli domination in the region.
Altogether now; "Onward Christian soldiers, marching off to war." You too, OBOMBMA.
01:02 PM on 03/22/2011
"After bombing Libya, what now?"

I'll take a wiiilllldddd guess and say there will be some other place to bomb - shortly.
12:46 PM on 03/22/2011
No.

What President Obama should be asking himself is "Is this the right thing to do?" Maybe it's "Is it in the interests of America and the world?" Perhaps even "Are we saving lives?"

The question of whether we can afford it is pointless. It's what wimps use when they can't say "This is wrong." The US's actions in regards to Libya are moral and justified. Complaining that they're expensive is like saying we shouldn't have fought (pick a war... Revolutionary to Iraq) because it was too expensive. We shouldn't have fought the Iraq war or Vietnam, because they were misguided and contrived, not because they were too expensive.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Craig Koebelin
Gut feelings are usually gas
12:43 PM on 03/22/2011
The people of Benghazi were about to be slaughtered.
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Dec2086Lover
After all you are my wonderwall.
05:17 PM on 03/22/2011
Allowing genocide and mass slaughter is the worst option,glad Gaddafi was not allowed to do so.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
becky bradshaw
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth
12:10 PM on 03/22/2011
The important point is that this operation is led by France and Great Britain. The U.S. is supporting friends with assets that only it possesses (i.e. stealth bombers). The end game is not clear, but is also not our responsibility. The Libyan end-game, though complicated, is well within the management capabilities of France and Great Britain.
ALABAMALEFTIST
What is to be done?
12:02 PM on 03/22/2011
Apparently the rebels in Benghazi are flying the old Sennousi flag and there are some monarchists around along with Islamic extremists and we don't know who else. One would imagine that the Kings of Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain, Oman and the Gulf Sheiks would like to see a restoration, hence their support of our military becoming the rebel air force. The 'no fly zone is a sham. The intention is to destroy Qadaffi and his military to make way for someone, might as well be the old Royal family.
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Dec2086Lover
After all you are my wonderwall.
05:19 PM on 03/22/2011
Neither the monarchists nor the extremists will take power in Libya.Plus that is no excuse to allow Gaddafi to kill thousands like he promised.
07:30 AM on 03/22/2011
Things certainly have changed under President Obama. Another pointless "shock and awe (lite)" display, another few hundred million down the drain in the North African, instead of Arabian, desert. Today a US fighter bomber is downed. Jihadis in Britain are busy recruiting fighters to push out the crusaders in Libya, photos of undisciplined troops committing atrocities, etc, etc.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Ascoli
06:44 AM on 03/22/2011
Now what.............find another place to bomb
America has to be bombing somewhere in the world.
Sicko country.
11:07 PM on 03/21/2011
"Here we go again! It's Iraqi-style shock and awe for Libya."

I am so sorry that the struggles for freedoms [which we take for granted] by peoples
around the world and under the feet of dictators bores you so much. I'm sure Mr.
Gaddafi was a top-notch gracious host when "he took [you] by the hand and led [you]"
during your chummy visit with him. After all, you were going to present your view of
him to the rest of the world, were you not?
Your casting of the freedom fighter in smirky terms as they struggle against a tyrant
belies your true concerns.
Perhaps the next skirmish the U.S. becomes involved in by whoever is President at the
time will summon you and run the skirmish to your satisfaction, budget and all.
I'm sure that President will avert his eyes from whatever skirmish the media is pushing
to the world [you're familiar with their point of view, are you not?] and concentrate on
what you think deserves top priority.
And I'm sure the media will become less opinioned and more investigative.
And then again, maybe we're both wrong.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
hrpmap
Retired man still active..
01:05 AM on 03/22/2011
It would have been nice if Obama had followed the law though, but he didn't.
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Dec2086Lover
After all you are my wonderwall.
05:23 PM on 03/22/2011
The last time law was followed was on Dec 8,1941,70 years ago.How many conflicts has the U.S launched,many with murky and stupid reasons,example being Grenada in 1983?This one is hardly the worst one,and is actually the most worthwhile.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Dr. Jonathan David Farley
mathematician
09:48 AM on 03/22/2011
Are they freedom fighters? I have no idea. Neither do you.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Craig Koebelin
Gut feelings are usually gas
12:33 PM on 03/22/2011
If you follow on-line the tweeting and videos, you can get a feeling for the nature of the revolt, and the Libyans, at least in the cities, seem to be not much different from people anywhere these days; they want freedom, and lives without fear, and with a future for themselves and their families. It's not mysterious at all.
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Dec2086Lover
After all you are my wonderwall.
05:26 PM on 03/22/2011
To say they are extremists is sheer stupidity! Sure some may be a little crooked,but don't tell me all those people who were cheering and dancing in Benghazi a few weeks ago are some how members of al qeada.They are just like Tunisians and Egyptians,and those in eastern Europe in 1989.

Btw I was not personally attacking you,but those who some how imply that these rebels are dangerous people.
10:35 PM on 03/21/2011
Good post Eric, as usual.

The West has had it in mind to bring down Gaddafi for decades. Echoing Iraq, we will find out in a few years that the planners have been working on this one for a while, and the no-fly was a fait accompli from the first day we heard it mentioned, despite appearances of waffling here and there.

The goal here is not democracy, never was (see Eric's comments on Yemen etc). It is to chop each Arab country into little harmless pieces that don't challenge/balance the "Only Democracy in the Mideast" (tm), with bad guys in one piece, and CIA stooges and - surprise- oil, in the other. viz: future Kurdistan, south Sudan, Yemen, and eventually Saudi.
Less and less of our oil comes from there (hello Canada, we'll take oil now, water later) so the strategic interest is less clear. For us, that is.
09:16 PM on 03/21/2011
I thought we elected George Obama, sorry, Barack Bush, sorry again, Barack Obama to get us out of these "conflicts"? What was so wrong under Bush suddenly becomes acceptable under Obama. Not that I'm complaining, mind you. Obama had to make an adult decision, something completely foreign to most democrats.
RealistBC
Micro-bios must pass muster.
09:59 PM on 03/21/2011
Anyone know of a petition to ask the Nobel Committee to claw back Obama's Peace Prize?
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liberalsrheros
GOP's voter suppression, an insult to veterans.
02:47 AM on 03/22/2011
promote peace by letting a dictator slaughter people, or terrorists as daffi calls them?
07:33 AM on 03/22/2011
They're too busy nominating Hugo Chavez for the next one.....
RealistBC
Micro-bios must pass muster.
09:13 PM on 03/21/2011
Come now, Margolis! Operation Intervene Libya can only have one motivation. Our Interest Leads us to Tomahawk in the name of popular sovereignty. One Intrepid Leader is all we need in power there to defend corporate freedom and libertinism. A few air raids will do the trick, because Overt Invasion Loses.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Nicolas Rossier
Filmmaker & Reporter from Brooklyn, New York
08:55 PM on 03/21/2011
Good article. I am not sure that the war is lead by France though. France was the first to
"cocorico" for the bombing but they are not leading the operations right now. The US is like always. France could never lead any operation like this one with one aircraft carrier. This operation was not well sold to the american public and we are going to end up killing more civilians than Gaddafi did in the last 4 weeks of this conflict. The whole purpose of the mission was to protect civilians and we end up killing more. Very sad for America. We should have let the Europeans lead this one. They have enough resources to do it. I know they always claim they don't but they do.
RealistBC
Micro-bios must pass muster.
09:16 PM on 03/21/2011
France led in attacking Libya first. This forced Obama to cave to the Pentagon, who never saw a war they didn't want to join. By weight of carrier task force numbers, we took command from France. But we wouldn't be there now if Sarkozy didn't see an opportunity to slide out from under Uncle Scam's heavy thumb.
07:34 AM on 03/22/2011
France may have shot first but they were using AWACs to find where to aim. All the command and control was US from the start.
09:48 PM on 03/21/2011
You say the Americans will kill more people than Gaddafi did in the last four weeks. Really? He is estimated to have killed several thousand and had already called for mercinaries to come from Africa and kill his people. This is a guy responsible for killing 200,000 in Chad and who bombed two airliners. Somehow, I think his capability of murdering his own people is quite extensive.
RealistBC
Micro-bios must pass muster.
10:07 PM on 03/21/2011
How many Iraqis killed by America? How many Afghans? How many Pakistanis? . . . .

The list goes back centuries. I doubt Gaddafi comes close. And you should look up Luis Posada Carriles if you are so worried about bringing airliner bombers to justice.
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GuyCybershy
01:17 AM on 03/22/2011
Here's a terrorist who blew up a Cuban airliner while on the CIA payroll many years ago. If we really cared about terrorism this would be front page news. How many Americans have ever heard the name Louis Posada Carriles?
http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/03/21/2126942/cuban-militant-posada-is-heard.html
07:50 PM on 03/21/2011
It may well be that, "bomb libya to rubble and then go home" is a good plan. One might recall that we won wwII that way except we forgot to go home and have had to contend with Germany and Japan in business ever since.
In the very old days the winner of a war took all they could haul and went home, maybe that was a good plan.
RealistBC
Micro-bios must pass muster.
10:11 PM on 03/21/2011
That was the Imperial Roman strategy. How'd that work out for them?
12:59 AM on 03/22/2011
Pretty well actually. They were a phenomenally successful society for a long time.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
GuyCybershy
01:20 AM on 03/22/2011
We "won" WW2 because the Germans and Japanese understood that they had been conquered. Islamic nations do not adhere to our notions of war and conquest.