Putin Checkmates Bush in Eurasia

WASHINGTON DC - Russia's Vladimir Putin swiftly and decisively checkmated the Bush administration's clumsy attempt last week to expand US influence into the Caucasus. The score in this latest round of the Great Game - Putin: 10. Bush: 0.

We are not facing a return to the Cold War - yet. But the current US-Russian crisis over Georgia, a tiny nation of only 4.6 million, and its linkage to a US anti-ballistic missile system in Eastern Europe, is deeply worrying and increasingly dangerous.

On August 7, Georgia's president, Mikheil Saakashvili, ordered his US and Israeli-advised and equipped army to invade the breakaway region of South Ossetia, which has been struggling for independence from Georgia since 1992. Most of its people were Russian citizens who wanted union with Russian North Ossetia.

If not directly behind Georgia's invasion of South Ossetia, Washington had to have been at least fully aware of Saakashvili's plans. The Georgian Army was trained and equipped by US and Israeli military advisors stationed with its troops down to battalion level. CIA and Israel's Mossad operated important stations in Tbilisi and coordinated plans with the Saakashvili, whose political opponents accuse him of being very close to CIA and the Pentagon.

Georgia's attack on South Ossetia was launched while the world was absorbed by the Beijing Olympics, and Putin was in the Chinese capital.

Saakashvili's 'coup de main' was a disaster. Russia's 58th Army responded by routing Georgian forces and delivering a humiliating strategic and psychological blow to the Bush administration. In fact, Saakashvili fell right into Moscow's trap.

Georgia and Russia have been feuding since 1992 over two Georgian ethnic enclaves, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, whose people differ in ethnicity and language from Georgians.

The young, US-educated Saakashvili became Georgia's president in 2003 after an uprising, believed organized by CIA and financed by US money, overthrew the able former leader, Eduard Shevardnadze. I came to know and respect Shevardnadze in Moscow when he was Mikhail Gorbachev's principal ally and architect of Soviet reform.

Saakashvili quickly became the golden boy of US rightwing neoconservatives and their Israeli allies, who held him a model of how to turn former Russian-dominated states into 'democratic' US allies. Georgian critics claim Saakashvili kept power by intimidation, bribery, and vote rigging. The youthful Georgian leader launched a war of words against Moscow.

US money, military trainers, advisers, and intelligence agents poured into the former Soviet Republic of Georgia. Israeli arms dealers, businessmen and intelligence agents quickly followed, reportedly selling some $200 million or more of military equipment to the Georgian government.

By expanding its influence into Georgia, the Bush administration brazenly flouted agreements with Moscow made by president George H.W Bush not to expand NATO into the former USSR. President Bill Clinton and George W. Bush both violated this pact. Under the feeble Yeltsin regime, bankrupt Russia could do nothing. But under Putin, newly wealthy Russia finally pushed back.

Russia's tough deputy prime minister, Sergei Ivanov, sneeringly observed that Georgia had become, a 'US satellite.' Ivanov, a former KGB colleague of Vlad Putin, knows a thing or two about satellites. Georgia provided the US oil and gas pipeline routes from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan that bypassed Russian territory. Russia was furious its Caspian Basin energy export monopoly had been broken, vowing revenge.

Now that the Russians have checkmated the US and client, Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia will likely move into Russia's orbit. The west backed independence of Kosovo from Serbia. The peoples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, who are ethnically and linguistically different from Georgians, should have as much right to secede from Georgia.

Besides thwarting Bush's clumsy attempt to further advance US influence into Russia's Caucasian underbelly, Putin delivered a stark warning to Ukraine and the Central Asian states: don't get too close to Washington. Putin put the US on the strategic defensive and showed that NATO's new eastern reaches - the Baltic, Bulgaria, Romania, and the Caucasus - are largely indefensible.

It's a good thing Georgia was not admitted to NATO, as the White House had reportedly promised Saakashvili. Had Georgia been admitted before this crisis, the US and its NATO allies would have been in a state of war with Russia. Disturbingly, Germany's conservative prime minister, Angelika Merkel, rushed to Tbilisi to assure Saakashvili that her nation still backed NATO membership for Georgia.

Is the west really ready to be dragged into a potential nuclear war for the sake of South Ossetia? Are American and German troops ready to fight in the Caucasus? Georgia is a bridge too far for NATO.

President George Bush, VP Dick Cheney and Sen. John McCain all resorted to table pounding and Cold War rhetoric against Russia. McCain, whose senior foreign policy advisor is a neoconservative and was a registered lobbyist for Georgia, demanded that the US and NATO 'punish' Russia and put it in the diplomatic doghouse. McCain's high indignation was only exceeded by his inability to properly pronounced 'Abkhazia.'

America's neocon amen chorus demanded a confrontation with Russia, invoking their usual mantra about Munich and appeasement. Not a few cynics wondered if the Caucasian imbroglio had not been staged by the Republicans to provide Sen. McCain with the 'three am phone call' he has been longing for.

Hypocrisy flew thicker than shellfire. Bush, who ordered the invasion of Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia, and is threatening war against Iran, accused Russia of 'bullying' and 'aggression.' Putin, who crushed the life out of Chechnya's independence movement, piously claimed his army was saving Ossetians from ethnic cleansing and protecting their quest for independence.

Bush and McCain demand Russia be punished and isolated. The humiliated Bush is sending some US troops to Georgia to deliver 'humanitarian' aid. Equally worrisome, the US rushed to sign a pact with Warsaw to station anti-missile missiles and anti-aircraft batteries, manned by US troops, in Poland. This response is dangerous, highly provocative, and immature.

The west must accept Russia has vital national interests in the Caucasus and the former USSR. Russia is a great power and must be afforded respect. The days of treating Russia like a banana republic are over.

The US's most important foreign policy concern is keeping correct relations with Russia, which has thousands of nuclear warheads pointed at North America. Georgia is a sideshow. US missiles in Poland and radars in the Czech Republic are a dangerous, unnecessary provocation that is sowing dragon's teeth for future confrontation.

Comments

[parkerfly38]

Take a breath, dude.

Russia's not going to risk all-out nuclear confrontation. Neither will they invade any Baltic NATO members, because truly, in spite of their show-of-force in Georgia, they have not demonstrated that their military has evolved enough to take on the US/NATO on the battlefield.

Georgia is, like you said, a tiny sideshow, and in spite of our State Sponsorship program (a partnership between other nations' military and our National Guard) and the Israeli trainers, you can't grow soldiers like sea monkeys. Russia accomplished what it did because it has a still largely conscript force to levy against weak neighbors. If NATO is forced to defend its members according to their charter, I don't think you'll see Russia with as much moxie as the last several weeks.

Breath. Breath.

[rwt1138]

I disagree. Putin is a nationalist, and he has chafed at the outright disrespect and contumelies of the west. He's also played a slow, patient hand to secure his position before acting. He is not brash or foolish, in no way is he an eastern neocon. Russia still has cards to play, and will not stand for any more western encroachment in its sphere of influence. Merkel's assertion aside, Georgia will never be a NATO member. I predict the same is true of Ukraine. As for Poland, I wouldn't be surprised if a quick surgical strike was ordered on any missiles stationed there, daring NATO to retaliate. I also don't see NATO retaliating in any meaningful sense. The only army that could go toe to toe with the Russians for any length of time is the United States Army, 6 years ago. Europe is not anxious to go to war, particularly war that will be fought in their streets and will result in their cities, towns, factories and railways being bombed. They will look for a way out. Assuming Russia simply blows up missile sites and does not invade, I think that will be a sufficient pretext to respond mildly, and in a way that does not threaten Europe's supply of oil--which Russia will most certainly cut off in the event of all out hostilities. Russia could also dump its US foreign currency reserves and US treasury bonds, crippling our already battered economy.

[Peddler]

The US constantly plays dangerous games abroad to promote their interest. There will come a time when putin will have to putin-up or shut up........and Americans will pay the ultimate price.

[veracity]

Mr. Margolis, great to see someone with experience & knowledge in the area refute "Mainstream Media" reporting on the Georgia-Russia war.
The US media regurgitates right-wing Neo-Con talking points about "democratic Georgia" vs the big, bad, evil dictatorial Russians,
but one thing your column didn't quite mention is that Georgia's economy and standard of living WENT DOWN under Saakashvili, due to his spending millions on Israeli & US weapons systems & militarizing Georgia, policies that were NOT popular in Georgia (even with Saakashvili stoking nationalist ambitions.)
Saakashvili had to call out his US-Israel trained army to crush antigovernment protests. Worse, Saakashvili has been using Soviet style "secret" trials to accuse and convict his political opponents of "treason" - the same tactics the Nazis used to rise to power in Germany.

Indeed, you paragraph sums up Neo-Con tactics, not just overseas but here in America:

"Saakashvili quickly became the golden boy of US rightwing neoconservatives and their Israeli allies, who held him a model of how to turn former Russian-dominated states into 'democratic' US allies. Georgian critics claim Saakashvili kept power by INTIMIDATION, BRIBERY, and VOTE-RIGGING. "

We have "bribery" and "vote-rigging" right here in America, vote-rigging examples too numerous to recite (but including Sen. Max Cleland and Ala. Dem Gov. Don Siegelman's "loses" in 2002), and Nancy Pelosi, and the entire "Democratic" Party "leadership," have been bought-off and intimidated by the AIPAC pro-war lobby.
http://www.vdare.com/buchanan/070319_pelosi.htm

[WmC]

Let me suggest a title for this caper: The Keystone Cops do Georgia.

[peterg76]

I'm really puzzled by the hyperbole in this situation. It's laughable to think that Georgia could attack Russian peacekeepers and not face retaliation, just as it's laughable to think that the US, a country which neglected its own citizens in New Orleans, and with an over-extended military, could conceivably intervene.

[larry278]

The USA has been shown to be a failed nation since Hurricane Katrina thanks to W, Brownie, the corpse of Engineers & a few thousand politicians. Often failed nations are called banana republics. W & Co pulled off a pre-emptive invasion of Iraq during his 1st term. The USA still occupies Iraq. Putin's Russia just pulled off a pre-emptive invasion of Georgia & still occupies Georgia. Putin can be compared to an affluent Tammany Hall politician, George Washington Plunkett, both men seed their opportunities & tuk 'em. As for W, he & America have been taken down to a virtual banana republic by W's opportunistic invasion & continuing occupation of Iraq.
Georgia borders Russia & was a part of the former USSR till the 1990's. Iraq is several thousand miles from the USA but Iraq had US support when it fought Iran under S Hussein. W had no objection to a post S Hussin gov't hanging the US's former friend S Hussein.
W isn't bordering on insanity. Borders of any sort are ignored by W & his neo-con supporters unless you mean the border between Mexico & the USA. Neo-cons may have wondered what the cold war with the former USSR was like. W, the neo-con's favorite, now has a new cold war with Putin's Russia. Neo-cons can easily compare the 21st century cold war with the one in the 20th century. The USA will be fortunate if cold war #2 doesn't become a hot war & grow into WW

[ContraEgoiste]

There is the possibility that since Iraq and Afghanistan are loosing psychological impact as the bogey man needed for the Military-Industrial complex to keep picking our pockets, the NeoCons have engineered this, using Georgia as a pawn to revive the cold war and once more elevate Russia to that "useful" monster.

And they have guys like JoeBiz below posting bs to fan the flames of fear and self righteousness.

[TRIATHLON]

THE US MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX HAS STARTED WWIII
What is the definition of a World War? If you look back at WWI, and WWII, we the United States Military Industrial Complex, with its Imperial Presidency are now engaged in Word War III. We have not one war in progress but three counting the retuned Cold War with The New Soviet Union. So, War in Iraq, War in Afghanistan, and Cold War with the New Soviet Union that make three and that should qualify as at least the beginning of or a mini World War.
The (PRN) The Presumptive Republican Presumptive Nominee to the office of the Imperial Presidency of the United States Military Industrial Complex is even hinting that when elected the Selective Service the DRAFT will once again begin. So, we can prepare yet for another round of Wars. The Pre-emptive Thermo-Nuclear Attack and war on Iran, and then the road thru Poland into the New Soviet Russian, leaving only The Evil Axis Empire of The Peoples Republic of China and the ending of our debt to them.
So, if a World War is more than one war at a time, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, The New Soviet Russia, and The Peoples Republic of Red China should qualify.

[Mathieumao]

Why is it so hard to understand that the Russian president is not going to sit their and do nothing, while the so called free world evidently tries to weaken his country by surrounding it with weapons? Why are we not concerned about the South Ossetians killed by the Georgian army and get so emotional over Russia invading and killing Georgians? Why do we think it's ok for McCain to invade Iraq whereas we demonize Medvedev for sending tanks into Georgia? Because we are the most blessed country in the world, right? Because God is biased toward us, right? Because oil is more important than human lives even American lives, right? Where is the common sense?

[ContraEgoiste]

How does "a tiny nation of only 4.6 million" afford " military trainers, advisers, and intelligence agents....Israeli arms dealers, businessmen and intelligence agents ....some $200 million or more of military equipment " ??

oh yeah "US money," .

But wait, where did the US get this money?? And why does my pocket feel lighter??

hmm, we can afford all Billions on empire making wars, but National Healthcare is socialism. Got it.

[Pupadup4oBama]

well when you put it THAT way....sheesh!
This whole thing is just sickening...maybe that's why I haven't felt well the past few days.

[joebiz]

Russia, a banana republic? Nothing can be further from the truth. Russia is an imperialist power and will continue it's geo-political quest for additional power. Here are some reason why Russia and thuggish goon Putin, should be stopped.

1) Russia is a member of the UN Security Council through its Russian ambassador to the UN the General Assembly or Security Council to endorse his country's plan to send land, air, and sea forces deep into the territory and waters of a former colony that is now a U.N. member state, Georgia. The Russians wanted a UNILATERAL invasion of a sovereign state. Iraq and South Ossetia and Georgia are not the same. UN resolution 1441 was wrangled for years diplomatically before US invaded Iraq.

2) Russia never cared about the micro-national difference from Georgian, Abkhazian, or even the Ossetians when they were part of the Soviet Union. Now they are pawns in the greater Russian geopolitical game.

3) The west has made democratic inroads into former Russian satellites. These SOVEREIGN nation states, like the Balkans, Ukraine, Georgia, and Poland are seeking closer ties to the West, not to Russia. Why should Russia spoil these countries destiny and self determination?

4) History has shown Russia is a power hungry imperialist. Remember the tanks in Chechnya in 1994 and '99, Vilnius '91, Afghanistan '79, Prague '68, and Hungary '56.

[ceti]

So what's your point? All those countries border Russia while the US has traveled over 10,000 miles to gut its prey. The US list would also be much much longer and far more bloody. Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Afghanistan (yes, the mujahideen were created by the US), Colombia, Dominican Republic, Indonesia, Philippines, Somalia, Iraq, etc. Not to mention the countless coups and genocidal maniacs the US has supported over the years.

Your list also is interesting as it far more threadbare laundry list, compounded by cold war fantasies and jingoistic Russophobia.

[joebiz]

Here's a reponse to your list.
Iraq is a greater transgression but also a greater political responsibility for the US and the Iraqi people. Here are some points:
1) It was long over due for the US to actually REMOVE a criminal despot like Hussein.

2) Since 1991, we had a responsibility to free the Iraqi people in Iraq (especially the Kurds) under the fascist Hussein regime and help return the 4 million expatriots living abroad to remove Hussein from power.

3) Hussein abolished Kuwait, not just annexed it. Kuwait was a sovereign nation and Hussein boasted he would not have been removed if he had a nuclear bomb.

4) Iraq, under Hussein, broke the 4 UN and international law conditions for sovereignty.
a) Invading a foreign country, Kuwait.
b) Genocide of the Kurds being gassed by the Hussein regime.
c) Lying to inspectors about WMD, fooling around with biological and chemical weapons. On this case Hussein was not "set up."
d) And, the aid and comfort of international gangster criminals and terrorist groups.

None of these four conditions were not even met by the Georgians

[ContraEgoiste]

"Iraq and South Ossetia and Georgia are not the same."

Yep you are right. Iraq is a much worse transgression.

UN~Resolution 1441 was~drafted~jointly~by the~United States and the UK (surprise surprise), and submited September 2002, by Bush and it's main premise were:

Lie #1: Iraq supports terrorist organizations

Lie #2: Iraqi produced of weapons of mass destruction.

Lie #3: Iraq used proceeds from the "oil for food" U.N. program to purchase weapons

After much arm twisting and threats by John Negroponte the resolution passed by on November 8 2002 (this things that can take years passed in 3 months so much for wrangling)

Iraq agreed to the Resolution on 13 November.

Weapons inspectors returned on November 27, led by Hans Blix

Hanx Blix reported that nothing, nada, zilch was found (something that was confirmed after the invasion and later after a third inspection by the CIA).

~~~~

"Iraq was planned from the first National Security Meeting"
- Paul O'Neill - George W. Bush's United~States Secretary~of the~Treasury~and~cabinet~member til 2002.

"Rumsfeld said there aren't any good targets in Afghanistan. And there are lots of good targets in Iraq,"
- Richard A. Clarke - U.S. government employee for 30 years, 1973-2003; Ronald Reagan's Assistant~Secretary~of~State for Intelligence; George H.W. Bush's Assistant Secretary of State for Politico~Military Affairs; Clinton's~National~Coordinator~for~Security, Infrastructure~Protection, and~Counter-terrorism; G.W. Bush's Chair of the Counter-terrorism Security Group.

Pentagon: Iraq Intel Manipulated For White House
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/08/AR2007020802387_pf.html

[ContraEgoiste]

"Iraq and South Ossetia and Georgia are not the same."

Yep you are right. Iraq is a much worse transgression.

Raiding and stealing their only natural resource and source of national wealth. Half a million civilians dead. A once secular country left in the hands of zelous religious tribal leaders where, religious oppression, indoctrination, skirmishes now rule. Women who had professional positions are now back to wearing burkas. The country bombed to rubbles. 2 million refugees. Doctors have fled. Other professional have fled. People now dying of diseases just about eradicated in the last century such as malaria. Lack of clean water. People that will be dying of illnesses from the depleted uranium spread all over the place. Hight unemployment while we outsource everything to Halliburton.

And Afghanistant is in the hand of tribal leaders just as before the invasion, and life is not any different now than then including the poppy crops.

And what do we get from this.

Increased terrorist recruitment. Increased Anti-American feelings throughout the world.

And all for the price of 8-10 BILLION $ per month for us and our children to pay. But hey, our economy is doing so great after all.

[dadaboy]

I disagree with your comments.

[joebiz]

Good, that means I made you think. Can you come up with better factual reasons?

[Mathieumao]

Power hungry? Do you know any other power hungry nation other than Russia involved in the Georgian conflict? I guess your answer is no.

[joebiz]

The European Union who benefits from Russian oil; NATO indirectly and its member states, and the US who seeks to contain Russian expansion; and China who will benefit from the oil and gas generated from a stable Georgia among others.

[Shaddup]

Yeah, there's only room for one more banana republic around here, and the U. S. is it.

[Pupadup4oBama]

Hey let's not insult the Banana Republic...c'mon - sometimes i can get great outfits there.

(Sorry, had to provide some comic relief...this is all just too depressing.)

[KillTheMessenger]

One can not but wonder how many more follies this administration will play for us before they leave, tail between legs, in January.

[joebiz]

OK, Bush leaves in January, hurray. But, do the challenges facing the US and the challenges for our country leave as well?

[ContraEgoiste]

"..facing the US and the challenges for our country leave as well?"

um, unless you are posting from outside or you are a citizen of somewhere else, the US is our country.

(now I am really starting to feel bad. This person could be "slow")

..... "But, do the challenges facing ...."

No, but it will be a inmense gargantuan improvement when we have someone who solves them instead of multiplying them.

And it will be a humongous relief for us and the world if we don't get more of the McSame.

[who38]

It seems to me that the U.S. is the banana republic in this instance. Our progress in Iraq and Afghanistan supports that. Our economy is worse than some in South America and our prospects don't look that good. Only Israel is supporting the myth of U.S. power. And their pandering continues to be rewarded.

Of course, given the outcome in this situation, the Mossad ain't what it used to be either.

[lolola]

Eric Margolis is one of Canada's most interesting columnists. He's an old cold war warrior, an ex US Marine I think, and was considered one of Canada's most right wing writers....until 9/11. He quickly became one of George Bush's most vocal critics, particularly regarding the Iraq war; he hates the neo-cons. He is also one of the most informed writers on international politics. Although I disagree with him on some things, he has been right on all of his predictions about the catastrophic neo-con foreign policies.

So please America, pay attention. I'm afraid that you're being led down the war path again for political purposes. It is alarming how most Americans, including Obama, have fallen once again into lock-step with the Republican framing of the 'enemy', and seem ready for a revival of the cold war. Beware. This is more of the same, meant to give McCain his boost as warmonger-in-chief. Unfortunately, that frame seems to work very well in America.

[bascombe]

to show their concern, boosh went on vacation and condi went shopping again.

[itmaybetoolate]

He delayed his vacation for one ENTIRE day! Being the decider is hard work - he had to give up a whole day of his vacation!! Imagine the stress of it all.

[slemay]

I was a Soviet specialist and Russian linguist for the Air Force in the 1970s. I've visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. I've studied the region for decades.

Putin saw that we were overcommitted in Iraq and Afghanistan. He recognized that we could not muster troops to oppose anything he did, unless we wanted to institute a draft--which would be political suicide.

If we intend to support a government against Russia, we need to be willing to back our support with troops. If we aren't willing to back our support militarily, we need to stay out. Putin will view any other approach as a sign of weakness.

We also undercut our 'moral authority' with the invasion of Iraq. One Russian colonel, standing outside Gori, Georgia, said, "If Bushe can take Bagdad, we can take Tblisi."

Bravo. You got this one right. Good post.

[who38]

"Putin will view any other approach as a sign of weakness." I don't think he is the only person on the planet that thinks this way.

"We also undercut our 'moral authority' with the invasion of Iraq. One Russian colonel, standing outside Gori, Georgia, said, "If Bushe can take Bagdad, we can take Tblisi." Did his quote say anything about roses?

Great post. You said it all. Thank you.