President Bush Reciting Bin Laden's Script

Last week, Al Jazeera released a rather astonishing taped sermon from Osama Bin Laden. In it, he stated that al-Qaeda in Iraq had "made mistakes" and called on Iraqis to "beware of division" and "avoid extremism."

His speech appears to have thrown Islamic radicals around the world into utter confusion. The "jihadosphere" alternated between accusing Al Jazeera of "counterfeiting the facts" and pondering the meaning of "The Sheik's" words. For its part, the Bush Administration eagerly pointed to Bin Laden's message as proof-positive that the surge is working. Proponents of U.S. declaration of victory over AQI were doubly reassured.

Talk of victory and the misplaced focus on AQI suggests that the Administration continues to misunderstand the role of al-Qaeda in the Iraqi insurgency, with tragic policy implications in Iraq as well as the global "war on terror." The President should recognize that the terrorist-in-chief just provided a window of opportunity to shift our policy and rhetoric in two important ways. First, policymakers should deflate the importance of both Bin Laden and AQI so that a more accurate picture of the Iraqi conflict can emerge. Second, they should reorient policy to contend with the serious terrorist threat festering in the tribal borderlands of Pakistan.

Make no mistake: American special operations personnel have pummeled AQI and degraded their potency over the past two years. Yet, that accomplishment should not be articulated in terms of victory and defeat. This would belie the limited, but continuing threat that AQI poses to the overall security situation in Iraq. And these terms play directly into Bin Laden's narrative. In his view, another victory for AQI remains only one major car bomb away.

The President has continuously overstated the significance of AQI in an effort to tie the war to the terrorist attacks of 9/11. This summer, the White House attempted to drum up support for the surge by underscoring that "al-Qaeda is the greatest threat to security in Iraq." In a speech this July, Bush mentioned al-Qaeda no fewer than 95 times - despite the fact that his own State Department believes the group makes up less than 5% of the Iraqi insurgency. In recent testimony to the Senate, General James Jones offered a radically different assessment from the Administration, arguing that 98% or more of the fighting in Iraq is an internal civil conflict among Iraqis.

The Administration's imagined, if not fabricated, view serves Bin Laden's interest to be recognized as the tip of the spear of the Iraqi insurgency. The latest statement does not suggest, as some analyst contend, that al-Qaeda senior leadership has lost operational control over AQI - they never had it in the first place. At best, Bin Laden could only offer broad strategic objectives. For example, after a July 2005 plea from Ayman al-Zawahiri to cease attacks against Iraqi Shia, AQI leader Musab al-Zarqawi thumbed his nose and ratcheted up indiscriminant attacks.

By conflating all Sunni insurgents under the banner of AQI, the Administration misses an important opportunity to exploit cleavages among the resistance to the occupation. Even if it were to disappear tomorrow, the challenges to national reconciliation will remain and internecine warfare will not relent.

The President's mischaracterization of Iraq as a battle against al-Qaeda further serves Bin Laden's goals by ignoring one of the most pernicious consequences of its failure in Iraq: al-Qaeda, as the July National Intelligence Estimate assessed, has restored the "key capabilities it would need to launch an attack on US soil." Furthermore, as the 2006 Iraq NIE states, the Iraq war has become the "cause celebré for jihadists." The Administration's practice of pumping up the role of al-Qaeda in Iraq only encourages young radicals to head to Iraq and seek the glory of fighting American crusaders.

Rather than reading from Bin Laden's script, Bush should use the upheaval that Bin Laden has just created in the "jihadi community" to realign our strategic resources and discourse to reflect the reality of the threats we face.

As a first step, the President should abandon the rhetoric that fighting al-Qaeda is the principle reason for the U.S. to stay the course in Iraq. Second, the President should immediately refocus our policy establishment on the real threats to the homeland. The catastrophe of the Iraq war is in plain view - the question is whether President Bush or one of his aspiring successors will see it, and urgently begin to reorient our language and policy to deal with its reality.

Comments

[outnow]

Good post! I didn't even hear of the recent UBL tape.

First of all, should we even listen to UBL? Well, he did finally get our attention on 9-11.

Secondly, can we believe Bush/Cheney? It seems that Bush/Cheney conflated UBL with Saddam Hussein so that the U.S. could control access to oil. Now there is an effort to conflate Iraq with Iran.

The NIE concludes that we are stimulating UBL's recruiting in the jihadi community.

The solution is to be honest about US goals in the separate theaters. In Iraq it would be in everyone's interest for the Bush administration to simply say, "What we say goes." We need the oil or access to the oil or "end times" will come sooner for the US rather than later. Imagine a freeway with no cars or trucks. President Carter did this with the Carter Doctrine.

If we need to make a negotiated settlement we must find a credible representative to negotiate with. UBL is discredited. Direct or indirect negotiations with him are not likely to achieve anything after 9-11.

AQI is a creation of our Iraq policy of invasion and occupation. We have created a monster in Afghanistan, too. A lesson from our own Civil War would be instructive. How did President Lincoln achieve his goals? He found the most credible Southerner he could and made the best deal for all concerned. As Ghandi said, "The greatest good for the greatest number."

Is the US agreeable to staying out of Saudi Holy ground, settling the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, allowing local control in foreign nations to the locals? If not, then they are prepared to continue the fight apparently. If they get nukes from the Pakistanis then what?

Who is credible enough to negotiate from their side or our side? They have 1.2 billion people. The solutions from Bush/Cheney are making things worse.

[Durango]

I have thought for some time that it could be a relatively simple matter to convince the other Sunni insurgents to cut Al Qaidas in Iraq's throat at some time.

It is my impression that the Sunni insurgency is composed primarily of Baathists and nationalists whose agenda is utterly opposed to Al Qaida.

They used AQI because in the initial phase of the insurrection you accept help and allies where ever you can find them. And perhaps AQI had some expertise they couldn't find anywhere else.

But sooner or later there would be a power struggle because the goals of AQI are diametrically opposed to the Baathest and nationalists. They don't want a theocracy. And they aren't fighting for a transnational cause. They are fighting to expell the western occupiers, as would any nationalists in any other country on earth.

Imperialism has been dead for 50 years. Nationalism is the greatest political force on earth and has been for over 100 years. The evidence is limitless, Kenya, India, Serbia, Poland, Algeria, the United States of America. How many

A fool like Bush/Cheney is not going to resurrect Imperialism.

And nationalists aren't going to accept Osama Bin Ladin's hairbrained scheme of a modern Caliphate.

[boyd]

"The time when the downfall of America could have been prevented is long past."
I am tired of hearing this defeatist crap.
While there is life, there is hope.

[lgillooly]

They have there own reality....oil

[bookish]

OBL and Bush work hand in glove: they both get what they want, and the rest of us be damned.

[SamThornton]

You're making entirely too much sense.

Bush and his unindicted coconspirators have a narrative lodged in their heads that brooks no conflicting facts or ideas that run counter to their dreams. The only possible event that could deter them would be arrest and confinement. Not very likely.

The courts have become a Bush lapdog, so expect no help there.

The Congress has a working majority of like-minded neconservatives in both parties sufficient to ensure continuation of the Bush plan for America.

Unfortunately, the rest of us are merely along for the ride. The time when the downfall of America could have been prevented is long past.