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Eric Sapp

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The Unreported Political Implications of Pew's Religion Poll

Posted: 07/27/2012 4:27 pm

I love Pew. But the problem with religious academics doing political polls and non-religious reporters covering them is that the headlines can get skewed and political implications muddled. The headlines from yesterday's Pew poll on religion and politics should have all read: "Obama and Romney Both Face Serious Faith Problems," with the subheading: "Election could hinge on which candidates fixes them."

To be fair, a lot of the headlines did focus on the fact that less than half of Americans know that President Obama is a Christian. But the stories didn't provide much context for what that means or how it happened. It's clearly not good. Along with most not knowing Obama is Christian, even more troubling is that only 45 percent of voters are comfortable with Obama's religion.

Here's a key point in the poll that didn't get much attention: 82 percent of those who know Obama is Christian say they are comfortable with his religion. So voters are basically twice as comfortable with Obama's faith when they know what it is. This is why faith outreach is so important (but more on that later).

Why does the fact that most voters are not comfortable with Obama's religion matter? More than two-thirds of voters (and seven-in-10 women voters) say they want a president with strong religious beliefs. As one might imagine, these numbers are even higher with religious populations. Eight-in-10 Protestants and three-in-four Catholic voters want a president with strong religious beliefs. And let's be honest, they aren't talking about wanting Obama to have strong Muslim beliefs (so the fact that 17 percent of voters think he's Muslim doesn't add to the plus column)!

These questions are all a proxy for whether voters think the candidate is like them, shares their values and is someone they can trust. For many Christian voters, one of the most important ways they judge that is by the person's faith. That's not because they are prejudiced or trying to impose religion on the country, but because if faith is real, it informs everything about a person and all their values. And we want people representing us who share our values.

This is Romney's problem, too, and where headlines (and Pew's report) badly missed the mark, generally framing the poll results the way USA Today did: "Voters unconcerned with Romney's Mormon Faith." That is technically correct, but completely misses the political significance of the poll. First off, unlike the 80 percent+ support Obama got from people who knew his faith, to only 60 percent of voters knew Romeny was Mormon were "comfortable" with it.

But more to the point, overall numbers aren't what's important when it comes to Romney's faith. It's kind of like saying immigration won't have an impact in the election because most voters don't care too much about it. Same with gay issues or even healthcare. In the same way any political operative will look at swing states rather than national numbers, we need to look at the politically significant groups that care the most about the issues and will be swayed by them, not the overall national numbers.

Here's the key fact about Romney's faith: One-in-four white evangelical voters said they were uncomfortable with his Mormon faith. And evangelicals who were uncomfortable with his faith were more than twice as likely to not be strong supporters. That matters because a quarter of American voters are white evangelicals, and the last time a Republican won the White House, 42 percent of his votes came from white evangelicals.

To put that in perspective, 10 percent of Obama's votes in '08 came from the African American community. Imagine the coverage and fear in Democratic circles if Obama did something causing half of African American voters to go from "strong" to "not strong" supporters for Obama.

So Romney has a serious religion problem. And Obama has a serious religion problem. What can be done? I'll leave it to others to make suggestions for Romney, but there are some simple answers for Obama and Democrats. Go back to what worked for us in 2006 and 2008! In those years, Democrats did significant outreach to faith voters, and that outreach worked. In states where Democrats had faith field programs on the ground and were advertising on Christian radio and organizing on Christian campuses, they saw a 20 percent increase with Protestant voters over Democrats who were not, and Obama made major gains with evangelicals and Catholics compared to Kerry.

Will the entire election turn on faith outreach and whether people are comfortable with Obama's faith? No. But on the other hand, Obama's margins of victory in many of the swing states he won in '08 equaled the gains he made with religious voters over Kerry. And in an election as close as this one will be, we can't ignore something as central to most Americans as faith.

The DNC has a growing faith program and good people running it, and OFA recently hired Michael Wear to head their faith efforts. But neither program has organizers on the ground. And despite the fact that some of the largest Christian publications in the country have reached out to the Obama campaign saying they would welcome advertising on their networks, Obama has thus far abandoned the Christian media networks to Republicans and the right -- and we wonder why people get confused on his faith. If we're not talking to voters and they only hear lies from the other side, they start to believe the lies.

Democratic faith outreach shouldn't look like what the religious right does. When our outreach works, it's authentic and humble and focused on relationships and clearly-articulated values. And when it works we win because when American voters understand what our core values are, the vast majority recognize they are the ones they share. But we can't count on voters to figure it out. And as the Pew poll shows, we can't expect them to ignore the lies from the Right if we ignore them.

 

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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
charlesrfd2003
Proud American who believes in the Bill of Rights
08:56 PM on 07/30/2012
If I ran the Democratic campaign, I would clone James Carville 435 times and send them into each congressional district. Everyday, the clone would be busy answering and attacking the right wing. I do not expect to convert the diehards but some people waver and go with what with the crowd. They believe that that is correct direction. Having someone to contradict the Bill O'Reillys of the world is thankless but necessary.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
raker
12:12 PM on 07/30/2012
"...because if faith is real, it informs everything about a person and all their values."

That seems like it must be true. It's so simple and so obvious. Except it's not so simple. Religions like Christianity are sausage grinders, but although all the same scraps go in, different kinds of different sausages come out. Some people are inspired by their religious faith to do good, and a great many are inspired to do harm.

I've noticed that the people who make a big show of their piety and deep religious faith are the ones who tend to fall into the latter group. The more I hear about a politician's deep religious faith, the lower he falls in my esteem. Jimmy Carter is the one exception. In fact, I can't think of a single other politician who is public about his deep commitment to his religious faith and is an honorable person.
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michelesda
My micro-bio is empty.
07:50 PM on 07/29/2012
The trouble with Obama is that whenever he talks about religion, he sounds about as knowledgeable and sincere as Romney talking about jobs or the economy. My guess is that Obama is just not all that into religion, is instinctively a secularist, not a person of faith, and religion of any kind just doesn't mean all that much to him personally. It's too bad in a way, considering what an effective debater he is on the issues that really do matter for this country. But IMO if the voters are going to start making presidential candidates kiss the bishop's ring, imposing religious tests, expressed or implied, it could potentially end up being Obama's achilles heel.
04:31 PM on 07/28/2012
Obama's most recent official church membership was in a United Church of Christ church. Since then, he's continued to self-identify as Christian yet has not affiliated himself with a specific denomination or congregation. He has visited several Protestant churches of various denominations since including a few Episcopalian church. Also, although it's a bit of a stretch to attach much relevance or importance to this, it may also be worth adding as a footnote that he and Michelle enrolled their daughters in a Quaker school.

What one can draw from all of this is that Obama's religious preferences are unquestionably Protestant Christianity. At face value, one might think that this would satisfy the Christian Right, as they too are primarily Protestant Christians. However, this is where the liberal/conservative spectrum of theology comes into play. While unquestionably Protestant, the United Church of Christ and the Episcopal Church USA (and Quakers, if importance is attached to the point above) all trend theologically liberal, whereas the Christian Right's biggest players are variously evangelical, fundamentalist, charismatic, Pentacostal, etc. all theologically conservative.

It's interesting that the Christian Right is demonstrating more kinship with a non-Protestant (some would argue non-Christian; I wouldn't say that, but I would say not orthodox or mainstream Christian) religion such as the LDS/Mormon Church than they are with Obama's various Protestant affiliations. It seems that sharing conservative attitudes (theologically as well as politically) is more important than sharing doctrines such as Trinitarianism, Nicene Creed, etc.
10:40 PM on 07/27/2012
Simple solution to the problem: vote on policy, not someone's religion. DUH!
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Razzer
When the moon is in the 7th house, and Zyra collid
11:55 PM on 07/27/2012
When a candidate contributes $7 million dollars out of pocket to a church that aggressively promotes specific pieces of legislation: it is of great relevance to this campaign. The voting public should ask if that candidate's activism will shape public policy once he is elected president.

The Washington Post noted that the Romneys "gave away $7 million in charitable contributions over the past two years, including at least $4.1 million" to the LDS Church.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
TokyoTea
10:02 PM on 07/27/2012
I have to wonder how many truly don't know Obama is a Christian and how many simply refuse to accept him as one. A good part of the right wing are authoritarians who are very big on in-groups ("people like us") and out-groups.

Obama will never be in their in-group; he's not a right-winger. So in the same way that a lot of people "believe" the birther nonsense, many also "believe" that he's not a Christian. I'd really be interested in the poll showing not how many "didn't know" he was a Christian, but how many denied that he was.
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Razzer
When the moon is in the 7th house, and Zyra collid
09:25 PM on 07/27/2012
The "informed" electorate:

ONLY 60 PERCENT even *knew* that Romney is a Mormon.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/07/26/why-voters-don-t-care-about-mitt-romney-s-mormonism.html

I wonder what percent knew the Pope's religious affiliation.
08:04 PM on 07/27/2012
"First off, unlike the 80 percent+ support Obama got from people who knew his faith, to only 60 percent of voters knew Romeny was Mormon were "comfortable" with it. "

Please clarify that sentence?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
spkliewer69
04:53 AM on 07/28/2012
Of those who could correctly identify Obama's faith (Christian) 80 percent were comfortable with that (the rest think he is no Christian). Of those who correctly identify Romney as a Mormon, only 60 were comfortable with that.

The question is what percentage actually know the faith of the two candidates. I don't see that the article tells us this, although it says that 17 % of all voters think Obama is Muslim.

That % among GOP voters is astronomically higher, from what I have read
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Eric Sapp
Husband. Xtian. Founder Eleison & AVN
08:15 AM on 07/28/2012
It's the first stat I cite. Less than half of voters know Obama is a Christian. It was 49%.
07:32 PM on 07/27/2012
The only real difference people will notice when Romney worships, is his Church wont have any crosses. Nor do Latter Day Saints wear them, nor will you EVER find any in the church, on the hymn books etc.

To Mormons the cross is a tool of execution and they are taught that people who wear crosses CELEBRATE Christs death and they don't even know they are doing it. Other than that though, it will look mostly identical to any other Church.
06:00 PM on 07/27/2012
You claim that the headlines should have focused more on how so few knew what Obamas religion was, and how this was a serious problem. Can you not accept the fact that the reality might be that most people just don't care what his religion is, and there isn't anything to "fix" in that regard? It's irrelevant.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
spkliewer69
04:49 AM on 07/28/2012
So few know because the media on the extreme right and politicians and Superpacs on the extreme right lie about his faith all the time, suggesting he is not only not American, really, but that he is Muslim.

Yes, he could flaunt his faith, but he does not, quite appropriately. It ideally would not be an issue. But the GOP, because of Santorum and others, have made it an issue by showing they would legislate the values of their faith and by attacking him for being "alien", and not Christian. So here we are.
09:07 AM on 07/29/2012
Pre-Reagan, it didn't matter what a person's faith was. It really was irrelevant and John Kennedy worked hard to make it so.

That's no longer the case. Large segments of the conservative Christian movement hold views that will not be brought up during an election. Many don't believe in separation of church and state. Many are looking forward to the end of the world and don't care about environmental issues or are hostile to them. Civil rights for women and gays could be in play.

Many of these people are susceptible to fringe beliefs on anything scientific including climate change and anything that issues from the estate of the Koch brothers. Their faith precludes them from acting responsibly on scientific issues.

In these cases, the conservatives will pick up on the code words but the general population will not.

In the case of Catholics, one has to know how strongly held their political beliefs are. US bishops have been very aggressive about applying pressure to politicians to vote their faith. Do they follow the pope or do they risk being cut off from various sacraments or even excommunication?

In the cases of Romney and Obama, their beliefs are out in the open and you can judge them accordingly without referencing their religious views. That's not the case with many others, however, including some of the candidates from the last race for the Republican nomination.
05:46 PM on 07/27/2012
Obama won't do the same level of outreach to religious voters, because he would have to answer too many tough questions, and religious people won't let him off as easily this time around. Obama lied to voters in the last election with grand words about mutual respect, but what he really meant was "Do what I say, even if it violates your faith." From the 9-0 Hosanna Tabor supreme court loss where he tried to tell churches whom they had to hire as ministers to the HHS mandate covering sterilizations, contraception and abortifacients, Obama abandoned religious voters when he got into office. His campaign strategy now simply reflects that abandonment.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
blee808
05:30 PM on 07/27/2012
Romney's Mormonism is less of an issue because he is white.

Right-wingnuts see Obama's brown skin color and say he looks like a Muslim.

Which is funny because those are the same wingnuts who demonize Obama for attending Reverend Jeremiah Wright's CHRISTIAN congregation.
05:19 PM on 07/27/2012
Purely in political terms, it may be a good idea for the Obama campaign to emphasize his religion. Unfortunately, that sends a message to the non-Christian community that he feels he has to cater to the Christians in order to get reelected and perhaps beyond. It's too bad that competency and policy and character alone are not enough.