Destructive Primary? Gee, Who Woulda Thunk It

It's funny how the punditry works, sometimes.

Over a month ago, I wrote an op-ed for the Philadelphia Daily News, warning Democrats that a prolonged primary would destroy the party's chances to win in November. I followed it up ten days later a with a post here that compared the prolonged primary to a "murder-suicide in progress" with Hillary Clinton landing heavy shots against Barack Obama, but shooting herself in the process. Again, I made the case that defeat in November was being snatched from the jaws of victory. A few days after that, I looked at polling trends and again warned that the longer the primary goes on, the worse the chances are for November, for Democrats.

As I tried to make my case to political watchers, I was told to take a chill pill - that everything would work out, that the "energized" Democratic party was wonderful and the primary was only helping it, and I was just a hysterical Chicken Little. And yet, what was evident to me more than a month ago is now just evident to pundits today:

"It is no longer just the Chicken Littles within the party who openly worry about an outcome that leaves large blocks of women or African-Americans frustrated and alienated.," says Amy Sullivan of TIME.

"The Worst of All Worlds," says Andrew Sullivan.

Marc Ambinder says "damage might be accruing to the Democratic Party."

John McCain is now the only candidate in the race viewed more favorably than unfavorably, according to Rasmussen Report's Daily Tracking Poll. And he is intermittently hitting the 50 percent mark in the head to head matchups - something that neither Obama nor Clinton has even sniffed since, well, at least since February, which is as far back as the head-to-heads go.

The longer this goes on, the worse it gets, as voter attitudes towards McCain solidify, making it much harder to re-define him in an abbreviated general election campaign. If it goes on long enough, it doesn't matter who the candidate is - Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama - Democrats WILL lose.

Still don't want to believe it? That's fine. Just don't come crying to me when between January 2009-January 2013 you find:

:: 4000+ more dead in Iraq

:: A Supreme Court stacked and ready to overturn Roe v. Wade, and allowing unfettered government intrusion to your privacy

:: More Bush economics

:: More unfair trade deals

But, hey, at least you had an energizing primary, right?

Comments

[laocoon]

They both should be competing by attacking McCain. who can most effectively attack McCain. Instead we see them attacking each other. Lets say Obama is the nominee. It is one thing for Republicans to call him elitist, not ready for command etc. It more damaging for a democrat who has the support of 40% of the party to have called him those sort of things. How can her faction now credibly back off of those documented positions?

[Chavez08]

I believe the Dem party should have cleansed itself of Corporate-friendly "moderates" and neocon puppets before attempting to take the White House. They should have focused their resources on running early primaries against Pelosi and the "Blue Dogs" who vote with Republicans.

[dadw5boys]

WILL THE PRESS HIDE MC CAINS SUPPORT OF THE BUSH TAX INCENTIVE TO MOVE AMERICAN JOBS OVERSEAS IN THE 2005 BUDGET???????

[Chavez08]

You can bet your eviction notice they will! The media elite and their coporate owners luuuuvvvv the new global serfdom.

On the other hand - Maybe they'll tell the truth and use the Straussian-powers to make the sheep believe that hunger, disease and slavery is good for them. (like when NBC had Alan Greenspans' wife - Andrea Mitchell give a "fair and balanced" report on the effects of Globalization)

This country isn't running short on idiots that do and think whatever the TV (or a radio DJ) tells them to.

[dadw5boys]

John McCain is now the only candidate in the race viewed more favorably than unfavorabl­y!!!!!!!!!

SO THE EFFORTS OF THE CORPORATE MEDIA AND THE H M O 'S IS PAYING OFF MAKING MC CAIN THE BEST CHOICE AND KEEP THE POWER AWAY FROM THE AMERICAN CITIZENS!!!!!!!!!!

HOW MANY MILLIONS ARE THE H M O 'S PAYING THE CORPORATE MEDIA TO SKEW THE POLITICS?

WHY DID MC CAIN SUPPORT BUSH'S TAX INVENTIVE TO MOVE AMERICAN JOBS OVER SEAS IN 2005????
IT WAS IN THE 2005 BUDGET!!!!!!!!

[murrieta]

Disclosure - Obama supporter here. I am beginning to believe that Billary's strategy is not aimed at 2012. It is to sow enough doubt (and if she somehow takes N.C. - the doubt will be real) to convince the supers AND Barack - the only way to go is her for Pres and Barack for VP. Any other solution - say Barack gets the nod - leads to defeat in November. I am very depressed , as I am starting to wonder if this country will elect a non-white (with an unusual name) as president. I am sure she cannot win in Nov - her negatives are so high, but will/can this country take the leap and elect Barack?

[dawlishgal]

Somebody last night (maybe Fineman) was talking about the revenge the party is going to want to take on Hillary for wrecking its chances, not only for the presidency, but for the coattails they were counting on to give the Democrats a veto-proof majority.

If she gets her wish and makes decent people so afraid of the racism of OTHERS (people they don't even know), which--afterall-- is what her "unelectability" claim is anyhow, the party is NOT going to reward her with its nomination if the convention is deadlocked. And her supporters are already trying to change the rules and threatening to take their votes elsewhere, so it is unlikely that they will nominate Obama either.

My feeling is that the candidate will be some third party...maybe Gore or Edwards (who have stayed safely out of the endorsement fray). And the country will have another black eye for refusing to nominate a qualified man who campaigned FAIRLY and decently and was on his way to the nomination until he was blindsided by racists, or--in some ways-- even worse: people who used the fear of latent racism of others as a way to destroy his candidacy..

[austinobserver]

It seems extremely likely that if a Gore or Edwards were chosen at a deadlocked convention, that Obama would be offered the VP slot. Anything else would be suicide for the nominee. And, as was pointed it, it is also extremely likely that Hillary would offer the VP to Obama if she somehow snatched away the nomination, telling him that it is up to him whether they are going to unify the party and win in November, and she will make sure that if he turns it down he will get all the blame for a loss. She knows that it would be difficult for him to turn it down in such circumstances, and that is why she behaves as she does. After all, LBJ did not turn down JFK, even though they were blood enemies.

[lizr]

I'd vote for Gore or Edwards, if Obama was on the ticket. But NEVER HIllary.

[lizr]

They will. If the Party Elders step in now and make the SDs make a choice. If the bloodlettign goes on much longer, forget it.

Otherwise I say O needs to play the Blue Dress and the Cigar... because the repbublicans will!

[slc20]

And by the way, perhaps dems will "come back to the fold".
Independents (like me) certainly WILL NOT.

[mortrefuge]

If the Democrats lose in November they will have no one to blame but Hillary Clinton. The only reason she is able to stay in the race is that she is a Clinton so can snap her fingers to raise funds. She loaned herself $5 million in February. She was $2 million in the red yesterday. She owes $10 million right now. Even with the $10 million she has raised today she will be $34 million dollars behind Obama. If she sends a crippled Obama into the November or she limps into the general election after the nomination, it will be on her and Bill if we lose. I wonder why she would think it was worth it.

[PhDiva]

Hillary Clinton WANTS Obama to lose in November so she can run in 2012. She is demanding that she be the candidate either now or in 4 years. The only way is to destroy Obama now (which won't work) or destroy him for November. This is not an accident. This is the Clinton plan. They don't care how much it hurts the party or the country. Hillary wants to be president and she doesn't care who has to suffer to make it happen.

[Syco]

IF he loses because of her them she will not be able to run for class president

[Steverino]

Oh, cry me a river. The fact is that both Hillary and Obama would have an uphill battle to beat McCain anyway. I don't see how their struggle now is going to hurt either of them irreparably; their attacks on each other are nothing compared to what's coming from the GOP.

If anything is "destroying" the Dem party right now is whiny Democratic panic. People just need to chill out. We will eventually have a nominee, and then there will be what seems like 2 years of mudslinging before the general election. Everyone will get a slice of the mud pie. Calm down.

Have you ever heard of any other race or contest in which a winner can only be determined if someone drops out? It's preposterous. If the Dem leadership doesn't have clear rules in place to determine a winner at the end of this thing--if there really is no track laid down at the end of the train line--then maybe we don't deserve to win this one.

[slc20]

No, in prior primaries, candidates have had the grace to bow out when it became evident they couldn't win the primary season.

[tatt00me]

You're refusing to acknowledge the larger issue, which is Hillary's intent to do all she can to secure the nomination in direct conflict with the will of the people - ie the results of the actual votes. She will fight it out and keep Obama from securing 2025 prior to the convention. Then, she will happily go into a 1st vote draw which will release the pledged delegates from their obligation. Next, she will promise everyone she can, everything she can to get them to switch - don't forget there are potentially 3,000 political appointee slots available, and God knows how many manipulations of government bid awards to be doled out. She will get just enough to get the nomination on the 2nd vote. She will be happy, will have achieved her comeback, and will fracture the party irreparably for the November election.

[kavan]

If the country elects another Republican, it deserves the mess.

[whatevertoo]

Well get ready for another mess, because that is exactly what is going to happen.

[Squirtapotamus]

Republicans are the party of corruption and incompetence. So which one are you?

[ChartreuseMuse]

For years now the Dems have also exerted a very oppressive influence on the ability of third parties, namely the Green Party, to participate in the electoral politics of this nation.
In 2000, they lost, and despite indications then and academic proof today, that the Green Party's running of Ralph Nader had nothing to do with it, they've trotted that excuse out til its hooves fell off.
Could their karma being coming back to bite them in the ass?

Spirited debate about ideas is something this nation was built upon. We should encourage that- all ideas, from all parties and those who chose not to join a party. This nasty, down and dirty vitriol brings back memories of similar exchanges I observed post-2000 however, and the legal maneuvers perpetuated by the party machine ever since- suing candidates, making sure 3rd parties had to submit challenging numbers of signatures, throwing a legal juggernaut at those signatures, etc. etc.
It was juvenile and ugly then, it's moreso now. It would be hilarious though if so much were not at stake.

This race is the Democrat's to lose. Maybe they've just had too much practice being mean to everyone else they don't remember how to be civil?

[cloudy]

Good point about how "the bleeding" is hurting Obama's chances in November. The question is why Hillary Clinton is doing what she's doing? Consequences, even if pundits dutifully pretend to blindness, are rarely either unforeseen or unintended. We live in a world of credit for repression but not to protect the environment, against such crises as Global Roasting.

Well, what 's she trying to accomplish by staying in up to now and continuing? First, a very strong showing might put the Clintons in a good position to extract concessions from Obama. So far we have little idea of what such concessions might be (other than possibly the health mandates thing). I wonder just what kind of PRIVATE agenda & powerful vested interest demands HRC plans to extract from Obama over the coming months. Certainly I haven't seen this angle discussed in the media at all. Someone please let me know if there's been such SPECIFIC speculation.

Then there's the possibility that HRC is DELIBERATELY doing all she can to sabotage Obama's chances in 2008 so she can run in 2012. After all, by 2016 she'll be 68 & have no more a lock on the nomination than she did this year. So helping to see Obama loses in 08 could be part of a most (character­istically) cynical hidden HRC agenda.

As for disaffected women, Obama would be best advised to nominate a woman running mate NOT HILLARY. I think Barbara Boxer would be best, some say Sebelius. It's worth discussing

[SaintJimmy]

In any event, once the primaries are over, McCain will probably lose huge chunks of the electorate JUST BY OPENING HIS MOUTH. He'll slip up so much that the media won't be able to explain it away as "senior moments".

[BBackSoon]

I agree, except ….

We have a lot of stupid people in this country. There are a lot of people that want us to Kick Ass in Iraq without thinking what the hell that means. There are a lot of people that feel we should just take over the entire Middle East and take their oil! So even when the moron says something totally stupid they will like what he has to say.

We are on the brink of extinction as Free American Citizens.

[katefranklin]

Who's running for president this year? Did I miss something? If Obama's numbers are dropping then all is going according to plan for 2012, or so they tell me at Camp Clinton.

[jaynevada]

Obama is CORRUPT, a LIAR, and his slogan of change an ILLUSION.

1) CORRUPT: A houseowner wants to sell both a house and adjoining land. Obama can afford to buy only the house. No problem, the criminal Rezko to the rescue. Rezko pays full price for the land, whereas Obama gets a discount of $300,000 on the house. Nice to have criminal friends like this!!! (ref ABC News)

2) LIAR: Obama claims he did not know about Wright's America-hating (God damn America) and racist views till it was revealed in the mainstream media in March 2008. Obama attended Wright's church for 20 years, was married by Wright, had his children baptized by Wright, donated over $20,000 to Wright's church and named his book "Audacity of Hope" after one of Wright's sermons. You really believe after 20 years and all this he did not know?

3) ILLUSION: Exelon Corporation had not disclosed radioactive leaks at one of its nuclear plants in Illinois. Obama, a senator for Illinois introduces a bill to make disclosures mandatory. Seems like Exelon doesn't like it. Each draft of the new bill by Obama goes more and more towards Exelon till disclosures end up being "voluntary". What gives? How about $250,000+ donations by Exelon!!! Obama is not change, he is WASHINGTON BUSINESS AS USUAL. (ref NYT)

People need to realize that Hillary has been fighting for them all along. All the way back to 1993 when she tried to introduce universal health care.

[PandeiroMan]

This moron jaynevada is making the rounds agian- cutting and pasting this bs. His check from the clinton campaign must have cleared after that day of fundraising. Funny he hasn´t posted this shit on here since April 4th. Now the Clinton campaign gets some money and here he is again, spewing the same crap he used to cut and paste at the start of the month. Coincidence? Only jaynevada and Hillary Clinton know for sure.

[flanardiente]

Rev Wright served his country as a Marine, was part of the team that operated on Lyndon Johnson's heart (for which he received three White House commendations) and was brought to the White House to counsel Bill and Hillary in the wake of the Lewinsky scandal.

Just once it would be nice to have an election, however hard fought, without being beat over the head continually with lies and twisted information, a la Rev Wright and bittergate, or, for that matter, Hillary's complicity in the murder of Vincent Foster and Bill's record of serial rapes and McCain's verbal wife-beating. This kind of behavior dumbs down the whole process and no one is safe from it and it turns people off--which, I suppose, is the whole point.

Interesting that Obama's the only one in the race who isn't doing this.

[zann]

Actually I've read all that about Obama too and have no reason not to believe. There's important vetting behind the scenes, somehow, chats and arrangements with various types of news owners and other types of Global Capitalists. Who knows exactly how it works. We just have to assume that both Clinton and Obama passed and won't do anything revolutionary.

The fundamental crime is the ruin of democracy and honesty by Global Capitalists. Fundamental reform can only come from the people. How do we stop fighting with each other over side issues? What can we win, fighting over political half truths? Can't we stop before hunger, plagues and chaos drive us into the streets?

My impression is that Clinton and McCain don't know right from wrong anymore. I think Obama still remembers, even if his compass is shaky at times.

Clinton seems to revel in this mean-spirited fighting, which is one thing in a campaign and another thing when the military is involved. Obama genuine drive to understand will be enormously more beneficial for this country.

[IntrepidReader]

Obama may have some memory of the difference between right and wrong, but I am quite sure that when he sold his soul in order to rise from nowhere to where he is now he promised to ignore it. Anyone looking for miracles from him is going to be severely disappointed.

I am an equal opportunity believer in the reality of corporate owned and operated candidates. I feel sure the price Bill Clinton paid to get from Little Rock to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue was a promise to push NAFTA and other corporation/bank friendly legislation.