McCain's VP: Coming on June 5

The Vice Presidential pick for both the Democrats and Republicans has become more of a media fascination than any time in modern history, because each of the remaining candidates has some divisions to sew up within their own party. Senator McCain needs to take someone to make conservatives happy, "they" say. Senator Obama may need to get someone on the ticket who appeals to white people in Appalachia. Senator Clinton might need someone who appeals to Obama's base.

Names are being thrown all about, and segments on the talk shows debating the pros and cons of all the potential picks are already in full swing. In fact, for the first time in a long time, Senator McCain created "breaking news" on MSNBC, when it was reported that he was meeting with Bobby Jindal, Charlie Crist, and Mitt Romney this weekend.

All of this points to the eventual VP pick announcement being a major news event, with a longer cycle in the news than maybe ever before. That's why my best guess is that Senator McCain announces his VP on June 5.

That, of course, is the second day after the last Democratic primary. Most likely, however, the Democratic nomination won't be settled. Senator Obama will likely have more delegates at that point and Florida and Michigan may be temporarily settled via the convention Rules Committee. But, there will likely still be a large number of undeclared superdelegates, keeping Obama from reaching whatever the "magic number" is at that point.

Clinton campaign chair Terry McAuliffe seemed to foreshadow this weeks ago, when he told reporters that this nomination wouldn't be settled on June 3, but on June 15. That near two week lag would be the time for the rest of the superdelegates to come out, and if the numbers still hold for Senator Obama, the time when the Obama and Clinton camps will start haggling over how to end this thing.

That sets the stage for everything to play out this way, for McCain:

WED, JUNE 4, 2008 - It will be a muddled news day, but squarely focused on the question, "So now what for the Democrats?" That kind of story -- Democrats in disarray -- is good for McCain. So he'll let it play out for 24 hours, and allow tensions to boil a little bit among surrogates for both Dem campaigns.

THURS, JUNE 5, 2008 -- Then, just when things become even more unclear, on Thursday, McCain announces his VP. That's his own major news cycle which goes through Friday and the Sunday shows. The comparison couldn't be more stark for the Russerts of the world -- Democrats can't figure out what is happening, and meanwhile, the McCain campaign is a well oiled machine with an exciting VP pick. My bet would be Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, by the way. He's OK with conservatives (Rush Limbaugh said he was the next Ronald Reagan), a very affable guy, and has a great American story of his own. Oh yeah, and he's young.

MONDAY, JUNE 9, 2008 - FRIDAY, JUNE 13, 2008 -- Enter into the next week, and McCain and his VP begin to campaign around the country separately, covering twice the ground that McCain can cover on his own. The national party rallies around him.

Meanwhile, back in Dem-land, things are getting worse, because McCain's effectively played some mind-games. Precisely during the delicate haggling period that McAuliffe laid out, McCain is freaking people out. Especially Obama supporters. Now that McCain has a VP and is getting days and days of great news, they feel the pressure more than ever to get started on their own general election campaign. It's very possible that Obama's campaign and supporters, feeling the urgency, begin to push Clinton's team a little bit too hard, causing the Clinton team to push back. Instead of coming together, the split is becoming deeper and nastier.

Past this, things get murky. Obama and Clinton could come to a resolution soon after. Or, it could go on while superdelegates don't want to force anyone out. Or, they could decide to force someone out of the race, which would lead to a general election nightmare, where the loser's base will feel incredibly jilted.

Whatever the case, McCain's mission is clear -- keep Democrats fighting, especially past the point when Democrats can say that the fight is 'energizing' the Democratic Party. The more McCain can do to make the split between Democrats nastier and longer, the better it is for him.

I can't think of a better way for him to do that than to announce his VP pick on June 5.

Comments

[fungeezer]

McCain's VP pick will be Jeb Bush. Then, if the Dems pick Clinton for VP, all Americans will know for certain that they have been screwed.

[PioneerKing]

McCain's refusal to show up to vote Yea or Nay on the GI bill is unpatriotic!
Republicans will have a difficult time justifying this act of disloyalty while complaining about Sen. Obama's flag pin.
McCain feigns indignation and makes snide comments about Sen. Obama but McCain's actions are shallow and disingenuous.
McCain's hypocritical to say "...first in response to Senator Obama, running for President is different than serving as President. The office comes with responsibilities so serious that the occupant can't always take the politically easy route without hurting the country he is sworn to defend."
McCain"s comment, "unlike Senator Obama, my admiration, respect and deep gratitude for America's veterans is something more than a convenient campaign pledge. I think I have earned the right to make that claim," flies in the face of logic and is an arrogant, dishonorable attempt to excuse the inexcusable. McCain throwing pot shots at Sen. Obama only highlights the fact that McCain is irrelevant. McCain's perfidious by refusing to cast a vote one way or the other.
McCain isn"t beyond reproach; Americans will remember McCain's inaction and McCain"s refusal to adhere to the same standards and expectations that we apply to Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton. This behavior isn't what America desires from its presidential candidates and won't be excused.
NOTE TO REPUBLICANS: McCain"s POW STATUS WILL NOT AMELIORATE HIS FAILURE TO ACT IN GOOD FAITH ON BEHALF OF OUR VETS.
McCAIN ISN'T THE ONLY AMERICAN WHO HAS SERVED OUR NATION HONORABLY.

[cloudy]

I think it'll be quickly settled who'll be the Dem nominee -- the REAL question's who'll be Obama's VP? One reason for Hillary staying in could be to maximize her chances of it being her. I personally STRONGLY oppose this, & a current thread at Democratic Underground got a WHOPPING 750+ recommendations (& growing) from people specifically opposed to her for VP.

As for me, I'd prefer (1) definitely a woman & (2) someone who NEVER supported the Iraq War Resolution (IWR). My own favorite is Sen Boxer. Not only did she vote AGAINST the IWR, but she'd generate enthusiasm, has LOTS of foreign policy resume, & could help big-time in FL (yes I know Obama doesn't need help in CA), very knowledgeable & competent, etc.

Here's a list put out by Ambinder recently:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/quietly_obama_begins_the_quest_1.php

Potential ticket-mates, in no particular order, include Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA), Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) former Sen. Sam Nunn (D-GA), Gov. Tim Kaine (D-VA), Ex-Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD), Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM), Ex-Sen. John Edwards, (D-NC), Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS), Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ), Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE), Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) ex-Rep. Tim Roemer (D-IN), Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH) and others.

Neither Boxer nor Stabenow (also voted no on IWR) are listed.

well, whaddya think?

[XME]

Standing next to McCain, Jindal would look around the age of a great-grandson of his...he would only emphisize how old McCain really is. And of course, if something did happen and Jindal became president, THAT would be scary. WAY too young...he makes Obama look like a senior Senator!

[noneIn2008]

If the Dems back out on Hillary on June 3, you could see McCain name Hillary as his VP.

[Angelus2007]

That makes alot of sense to me. And while I still hope Obama wins the election. Jindal seems like a smart choice. He makes Obama look old, Obama loses one of his advantages, his age. Jindal is a guy who was born after we landed on the moon. His parents are immigrants, he is perfect American Dream.

If the news article is true, from the GOP standpoint, all 4 VP possibilities (Jindal, Crist, Romney and Huckabee) are all good choices. Jindal is young, Crist will deliver Florida (he is loved in Florida), Romney can put Michigan into play (with his roots there and the "disenfranchisement" of voters could swing Michigan. Huckabee will help solidify the south and nullify the African American vote if turnout would be high. Also Huckabee is likeable, many people I know who are Democrats said of all the Republican nominees, Huckabee is the one they could live with if they had to. I sort of feel the same way, alot of the things he said made sense economically. While I would still vote of Obama, he would've been interesting for me.

[HollywoodBill]

Bobby Jindal represents the social conservative snake handlers within the GOP who have proven that they are incapable of winning any region other than Dixie. The country owes a big thank you to the voters of Pennsylvania for putting a stop to the ridiculous Rick Santorum. Jindal represents a dead end branch of the GOP. He is the last living dinosaur.

June 5th? Don't think so. McCain has the luxury of seeing who the Dems are going to nominate and can pick someone who appeals to slighted Democratic constituents. Perhaps Carly Fiorina might appeal to Hillary constituents. Crist would seal the deal on Florida and definitely let the Revival Tent Republicans know that the GOP is under new management. Lieberman would put the Jewish vote into play. Crist would seal the deal in Florida. Most likely, Minnesota's Pawlenty.

[chicagojosh]

Clinton is in the rear view mirror, and the Obama campaign has shown plenty of times they know how to steal people's thunder.

Jindal does look tailor made to be McCain's VP pick, in a hardliner conservative sort of way. On the other hand, with McCain being targeted as being Bush III when it comes to international and economic policy, having Bush IV as backup could very well backfire and cause people to want to vote for McCain less.