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Obama-Clinton: A Murder-Suicide in Progress, and How to Stop It
Forget "Tonya Harding." With the latest NBC/WSJ poll , it is becoming even more evident -- this campaign is turning into a murder-suicide. Chris Dodd sees it. Howard Dean sees it. Superdelegates see it. I wrote about it more than a week ago in the Philly Daily News.
On one hand, you have the Clinton attacks which clearly are having a negative effect on Barack Obama (though he's shown an ability to rebound slightly). That's the intended effect -- drive his numbers down as much as possible, so that superdelegates see him as unelectable. And, indeed, his general election numbers aren't as good as they once were, as John McCain is quickly gaining ground.
On the other hand, Hillary Clinton's numbers are bottoming out pretty quick, also in response to her 'kitchen sink' strategy -- turning off white Democratic voters (dropping from a 12 point lead to an 8 point lead against Obama) and white voters overall (with a 51% negative rating); collapsing numbers among all voters (down to just 37% positive rating); and even losing women at a fast clip (dropping from 51% positive rating to 42% in just one month!) And despite all the attacks on Obama, she still isn't beating McCain, in the latest poll.
In short, while she's clearly pierced Obama with a bullet or two, Hillary Clinton's turned the gun on herself as well. The question now is whether someone -- anyone -- will step in and stop a murder-suicide in progress.
The problem is that while many superdelegates who are uncommitted have no problem expressing their frustration in unattributed quotes, none of them wants to stick their neck out, and face any political blowback. However, if the remaining uncommitted superdelegates step forward together, with a singular proposal to end this crime against the Democratic party, their numbers are just too great for any politician, even the Clintons, to exact revenge. Think of it as the electoral equivalent of the so called "gangs" in Congress - the "Gang of Eleven," the "Gang of Fourteen," and so on. Call it the "Gang of 300."
They must put forth a compromise plan, which addresses the reasons that Clinton is staying in the race, but also addresses the political reality. The reality, of course, is that there is no path to a straight up advantage over Obama after all the primaries are done. She won't win more states, won't win more pledged delegates, won't win more of the popular vote. Her reason for staying in, however, is that maybe there will be something that happens that makes Obama completely and utterly unelectable, and he'll be forced out of the race, while she picks up the torch.
Addressing both angles, here is a reasonable and fair proposal that allows Democrats to move ahead together, and not continue to sabotage a win in November:
1) Unless Hillary Clinton wins with more than 65 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania (which would put her on some kind of path to a real advantage over Obama in Denver), the 300+ remaining superdelegates pledge to all endorse Senator Obama.
2) These superdelegates, however, do not call on Hillary Clinton to "drop-out" of the race, but merely suspend her campaign, and not release her delegates. Nor do they call on her to endorse Senator Obama, yet. However, they do call on her to stop campaigning "against" Obama, and stop campaigning period, allowing the party to make up the losses it's sustained to McCain in every poll.
3) Should Obama face a situation that makes him completely unelectable before the convention, that should be self-evident, and he will end his campaign. Think along the lines of Spitzer or McGreevey. If he ends his campaign, she has the nomination. However, if he becomes completely unelectable before the nomination and refuses to drop-out of the race, this gang of 300 will hold its own vote. If a supermajority of them (2/3rds) vote among themselves that he has become unelectable, the whole of the group will move, en masse, to Hillary Clinton, and urge all other superdelegates to do the same. Essentially, this would be such a PR hit that it would knock Obama out of the race, if he refuses to leave on his own accord.
Such a plan would put an end to the Dem-on-Dem violence, and allow the party to begin to heal, but leave a path to victory for Hillary Clinton, which all hinges on what her own campaign admits is her only chance -- that Obama self-destructs. During this time of her "suspended" campaign, she also wouldn't have to spend any money, but could continue fundraising, replenishing her empty coffers and have it at the ready, in case the party calls on her to step in and replace Obama as its presumptive nominee.
Would the candidates agree to such a deal? Not if you just asked them, because it's not an ideal solution for either. But if 300 superdelegates agreed to this, presented it as a group, and moved to end the self-destruction, it would force the candidates and the party to accept the plan. They would have no other choice.
What of the voters who tell pollsters the campaign should go on? I'd love for one pollster to present them with a choice -- continue the campaign, or risk losing in November? I bet you anything the overwhelming majority of voters would sacrifice an active primary to help their chances in November. But, no one has asked that question.
Nearly everyone in the party is now looking for a way to begin the campaign against John McCain. It's time for the uncommitted superdelegates to do what the party created them to do in the first place -- inject a dose of clear, cold sanity in a crazy and destructive campaign.
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Its dribs and drabs organised by Obama that will take enough superdelegates after NC to end this, forget about a plan, the real world works person to person, Obama direct to clinch the deal. If he is an alien mutant whose genetic testing indicates viral malignant life form or other such nonsense, not even the pledged delegates will vote for him at the convention. Clinton is caput, fini, over, past tense. Good-bye,sayonara. No VP deal, no more Clinton in White House.
The uncommitted Superdelegates don't need a Convention all they need is to start going for one side or another within weeks.
He's the perfect split-the-difference candidate. Where is Adlai Stevenson when you need him?
Oh, that's right. He's dead.
Never mind.
Obama--Wall Street's guy--will surely withdraw from the race in response to this eloquent call for unity.
The financial community folks who have backed Sen Obama, thus far, have no intention of electing him--and never did.
He is right-wing finance's best available anti-Hillary marketing gimmick. His media-ballyhooed triumph in the Idaho caucus notwithstanding, Senator Obama faces a conundrum and a half:
If he knocks out Hillary, as his financial community sponsors hope-- he knocks out himself, also.
Should Sen Clinton withdraw--then the media adulation of Obama ends and Sen Obama is exposed as an articulate but compromised Chicago pol.
There are worse crimes.
But it makes it highly unlikely that he will ever be elected president.
Which is precisely why the corporate media loves Obama.
If you think HRC should stay in, play with Slate's delegate counter. It proves pretty effectively that she can't win.
http://www.slate.com/id/2187679/
If there weren't a cost to HRC staying in the race, I'd say, sure, why not? But there are costs:
1) Every week, the Dems negatives go up while McCain's positives go up.
2) The tens of millions of dollars being spent on the primary could go to the general election. I know I don't have unlimited funds, and I'll bet there are lots of people who will feel tapped out by the time the primaries wrap up.
3) The intra-party divide increases each week; the tension is real and the bad blood won't entirely go away. The more time to heal, the better.
There are numerous precedents for wrapping up the nomination before all the states have voted. There's no precedent for the superdelegates to overturn the votes of the voters.
The slugfest isn't productive..
http://pacificgatepost.blogspot.com/2008/03/fear-mongering-from-democratic-ranks.html
..... ease up Dems.
Maybe not a good plan and maybe there are better ones out there but at least it is workable and it provides a justifiable reason for the superdelegates to change their minds if needed.
The Clintionistas won't like it since there campaign takes the hit but then again she is behind in delegates and as Davidson had to accept losing to Kansas despite an awesome game, every good runs come to an end eventually. Talk to Gore about what to do with all that free time.
On the other side the Obamanics would have to live up their side of the bargain. So if something comes out about Obama that has not already recieved shiploads of press time or McCain looks like he is surging ahead and has a legitimate shot at taking the WH then the superdelegates need to do thier job and vote for Hiliary at Denver.
But at least we start with one on one with McCain instead of McCain getting to sit back and have an easy ride while Clinton's DLC attempts to prove the 50 state strategy does not work and while Obama and Dean supporters in the Democratic Party attempt to prove the opposite.
She could always start campaigning against John McCain instead of Barack Obama. That'd probably give her a boost among Democrats, actually. Another bonus is that you'd have two candidates campaigning against McCain instead of two candidates campaigning against Obama. It'd be much less destructive for Democrats as a whole.
That is, unless this really is just a suicide bombing.
Point of clarification: it'd be in the Dems' interests if *both* candidates agreed to direct their long knives toward McCain instead of each other. Campaign against the Republican candidate and allow the process to play out as it will.
Well, I prefer "suicide bombing", but yeah, pick your metaphor and run with it.
Andy Borowitz' latest satirical column:
"Hillary Vows to Stay in Race 100 years"
www.borowistzreport.com
Try this link: http://www.borowitzreport.com/archive_rpt.asp?rec=6854
I like your plan. It has my support.
Murder--suicide, that is a funny and yet dangerous analogy (we do have some kooks in America who get their clues from all sorts of strange places). Here I have to agree with Hillary and Jeremiah Wright, words do matter and America has a history of violence.
I personally say that Hillary should be free to continue her campaign with all of its attempts at political homicide and all of its movement towards the space that lies just beyond the cliffs ledge, or the kicking and bucking of the political legs and body that comes from self-inflicted asphyxia of the morals, principles, and ethics of a candidate
When a spanking comes from a just source it is always commensurate with the crime that provoked it. If this attempt at terminating the political campaign of Barack Obama succeeds and his candidacy is derailed through the nefarious machinations of zealots, the spanking for Hillary will be painful to watch; it will make the Lewinsky thing feel like a light breeze on a summer's day in terms of degree of suffering. Karma operates in this way, I guarantee it. If however she stays in and runs a campaign worthy of what I used to think about her, the standard she once represented; then no matter who wins I will be happy.
But a misbehaving child must show true repentance to stave off an earned spanking.
"Murder--suicide"
I hope we don't get too stupid over Hillary Clinton's unwillingness to admit defeat.
Remember all the speeches Mitt Romney gave about how he was "in it to win it" and going to "see this thing through to the finish" just a couple of weeks before he dropped out of the race?
The superdelegates are intelligent people. They're not going to douse themselves in gasoline and set fire to the party by trying to force some result on the Democratic voters besides the one that the voters themselves have made.
I'm a little bit put out that the Party "Leaders" felt that they had to put in a system to protect themselves from us, but there it is.
Obama's going to be the candidate and president. Not to worry.
Obama has already shown that he is electable by more votes, more delegates, and more states. What else he has to prove? Even the Wright matter didn't make a dent in his lead while the Clintons show more of their true color over and over again with lies and spins and more lie and spins. The superdelegates have to make their choice now but the Clintons machine is so powerful that they are afraid of revenge so they won't make it. No one can stop this unless VOTERS realize what a liar and self-serving people the Clintons are and don't vote for the Clintons in the remaining primaries. When the Clintons' aim is 2012, nothing can stop them now unless voters tell them enough of dirty politics, out with the old divide, hate,... and in with a future of working for the best of the country. Do the Clintons care about the party? I doubt it. The OH win had pushed the Clintons to go on, if they didn't win it, they would have dropped out already. That is the power of voters and they will get what they deserve.
DUDE, YOU'RE A GENIUS!
Well, not exactly a genius, and to be honest something far from it. The real problem with your premise is that Obama has already suffered a mortal wound -- it's just his supporter's who have already voted and don't want to admit they made a wrong decision that are keeping the hope alive. The Rev. Wright situation has destroyed his candidacy outside of his circle of die-hard followers.
Hillary's supporters for good reason (not a trivial reason such as sour grapes) will consider their options if Obama is the nominee.
The pitch to the Independents is falling on deaf ears.
The dream of Republican crossover is gone.
So, your kind gesture of saying Hillary can get back in if Obama somehow implodes is nice, but you gotta opens your eyes and see that he already has.
and insulting the voters is supposed to help your candidate how. first it was sates.caucuses and any primary she didn't win that was viewed wrong or irrelevant because she didn't win them. now you want to add voters to the list.and what mortal would he must have gotten hit by one of hillary's snipers.
OBAMA is a ZOMBIE, DEAD MAN WALKING, or whatever you wanna call it. He's unelectable at this point. Apparently it's hard for some to see, but not me, I see it clearly.
1. If in fact "The Rev. Wright situation" has "destroyed his candidacy" as you say then that does not speak well of the electorate's ability to not fall prey to what amounts to a simple confidence game (keep your eye on the little ball or the red card or the message of the pastor); that would include judges of genius like yourself.
2. Senator Obama is lucky, he has a large group of "die-hard" followers to offset the large group of those unwilling, unable, or just afraid to think for themselves and do research for themselves and to not come predisposed to the question of the characteristics and qualities of a leader; you know " presidential choices made by digesting the cliff notes of pundits.
I was sent to this earth to seek out people like you with their veiled and cowardly attempts to veil what is ideologically exclusionary thinking but what at a deeper level is really fear. I allow for being wrong and I am sure you have done a studious assessment of the candidates based on what is good for the country.
Lastly, this "never-die" (because spirit never dies) supporter is not really concerned with the goal. Win or lose Barack Obama"s candidacy has already changed America in profound ways.
Hey look up, that"s you in the spot light, and the whole world"s watching to see if you are the "mark" of the game that is being played.
Shalom!
I find it interesting when people equate apprehension with regards to Obama as fear. I'm not afraid of Obama being President -- I simply think there are better choices.
1. The Wright situation can appropriately be described as a confidence game -- isn't that all an election is -- a contest to see who the most people have confidence in? In the scope on many things people seek, Wright would possibly be of no consequence. But, in pursuit of the Presidency it is more than a minor issue. The Wright situation is a rationalization on the part of Obama's supporters. They have so much faith in him in other areas that they overlook this one. That's fine -- supporters of the other candidates do the same thing -- we're no better. However, a lot of non-supporters that Obama needs to win will not make the same rationalization.
2. Obama is lucky (not only for being black -- I couldn't resist), but also because he has a large number of supporters. All the candidates are lucky in this way. My lack of enthusiams for Obama is not fear, he's simply overshadowed by by excitement for Hillary.
I have no veiled agenda -- I'm up front with it. Obama's candidacy is doomed, not by fear or prejudice, but by the revelations of who I feel he really is. You say his faith is unquestionable -- I and others have questions. You accept his answers -- I question even those.
Notice the Red
"The Rev. Wright situation has destroyed his candidacy"
Only for scumbags who would never vote for a black man anyway.
Like you, "BigSid".
Obama will be the candidate and the president.
WOW...just a little divisive, ain't ya? Anyhow, I'm a black man, guess that will make you change you're theory a bit. Guess you'll claim I got some kind of self-hate going on.
Wright episode has hurt Obama outside of the Democratic party far more than any of his supporters want to admit. The primary problem with the polls (the ones showing he has not been hurt by the controversy) is that they include the 80% of the country that has already voted -- voters who are trying to justify their vote.
I'm not happy that Wright hurt him, but I believe it has. I believe we will see this when Pennsylvania votes. I believe we will see this when Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia and Kentucky vote as well. There will be a big drop off in the trends he had going for him up to this point.
Of course, he may not lose the nomination because of this, but he will feel the effects in November. The dream of Republicans converting and Independents swaying will not become a reality.
The real irony, Clinton has nothing to do with the Rev. Wright controversy. Wright was not in the kitchen sink. Obama is the sole party responsible for whatever comes of this.
It shouldn't be about Wright, and it's not.
It's about a very bright fellow sitting for 20 years in the pews of a church whose pastor openly espouses a racist philosophy. This very bright fellow then tries to tell us all that, even though he was a professor of law at the University of Chicago and president of the Harvard Law Review, he slept through or ignored or voted present and somehow completely! missed! the serious hate-mongering being trafficked around him.
He's done for and doesn't know it yet.
Two words: sniper fire.
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Posted March 28, 2008 | 10:49 AM (EST)