Will African Americans Return?

It started with a phone call.

In the 1960 campaign, when Martin Luther King was jailed for protesting segregation, Jack Kennedy picked up the phone and reached out to Coretta Scott King.

Martin Luther King, Sr., a lifelong Republican (as many African Americans were at the time) was so touched by the Kennedys involvement that he threw his support to Kennedy. African Americans were also touched, and noticed the disrespect shown by the Republican, Richard Nixon. Historians largely credit that with moving enough African American votes to the Democratic column to propel Kennedy to a razor-thin victory in 1960. And, since then, African Americans have largely not returned to the GOP.

It's a story I recalled this morning when I saw Sunday's Rasmussen Poll that showed Hillary Clinton getting just 59 percent of the African American vote if she is the nominee in November. (By the way, McCain beats Clinton and Barack Obama equally among white voters, in the poll)

For a few days now, I've been examining the growing "African American problem" that the Clintons have, and what it could mean in November. It's somewhat uncomfortable, as a white guy, but no one else seemed to be doing it. The long and short of it is not surprising -- if African Americans don't turn out for Clinton, or vote against her, to any degree less than the last few presidential contests, she will lose. Almost every swing state depends on urban areas as bastions of Democratic turnout, if it's to turn blue. And, those urban areas are predominantly African American. So, it's pretty near impossible to win Michigan if Detroit doesn't turn out, or Ohio if Cleveland doesn't turn out, and so on.

When you listen to African American leaders like Rep. James Clyburn, the plummeting support for Senator Clinton in the African American community isn't surprising. Nor is it surprising when you read the absolute anger towards the Clintons growing every day on websites that focus on African American interests, like Jack and Jill Politics or TheRoot.com.

The longer this race continues, the more attitudes will begin to solidify, on all sides. And, should Senator Clinton secure the nomination as the result of a floor fight at the convention (which her campaign admits is her only path to the nomination), that will only further promote the perception that this nomination is being stolen from America's first African American candidate with a real shot. If it goes that far, to the convention, there is only two months to repair the breach. A daunting task, indeed.

Everyone I've discussed this with who is white basically says the same thing -- wounds will heal, African Americans will come back.

When Senator Ted Kennedy spoke at Coretta Scott King's funeral, he recalled 1960. The Los Angeles Times reported:

Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) drew roars of approval when he invoked the 1960 phone call placed by his brother, then-presidential candidate John F. Kennedy, to Coretta King to pledge his help in freeing her husband from jail. Kennedy also mentioned the call placed by another brother, Robert F. Kennedy, JFK's campaign manager, to a local judge to inquire why Martin Luther King Jr. could not post bond. He was freed the next morning.

The sanctuary burst into applause when Sen. Kennedy said: "Robert called the judge."

Forty-five years and one Southern-Strategy later, an entire generation of African Americans has not forgotten which candidate of which party took the time to make a couple of phone calls, to the point where just recounting it caused two of the largest applause lines at a Memorial Service.

And, yet, the white pundits I've talked to maintain that in just months, African Americans will come back to the Clintons after the frontrunner, Barack Obama, was bloodied up by their "Bubba Strategy," pitting white working-class voters against African Americans?

Don't wait by the phone.

Comments

[frustratedinohio]

Typical white women won't be out to vote for Obama either. In fact, the percentage of voters who will either vote for McCain or stay home if Obama is the candidate is much larger than the percentage who will do the same if the candidate is Hillary.

Either way, the next President is McCain.

[BusstaBrown]

Hillary Clinton has destroyed the Democratic Party with pure selfishness. No way she gets a lot of Black votes accept from the ones with their heads stuck in the sand. Hillary sold her black supporters up the river. No way she wins as a Democrat. Maybe she will run as a Republican, more of her true calling. If she is allowed to steal the nomination, the Democrats are toast and you can take that to the bank! You can take that to the bank!

[justmeandnikki]

Historically certain groups have worried about being taken for granted by the Democrats and basically ingored, tokenized and villified by the Republicans. America sorely needs a third party. Those who feel they may be in a position to sit out an election due to Clinton big media chicanery, now may be the time to add some legitimacy to a third party. Consider a vote for Nader instead of not voting at all.
On a side note, it tickles me when uninformed Americans still holler about the liberal media. This is definitely not a liberal media at work on Obama and hiding McCain's issues as they hid Bush's issues.

[standforpeace]

And that 59% support is likely to drop much lower if Hillary gets the nomination for two reasons. First, African Americans would be confronted with a Black candidate that had won the pledged delegates and popular vote but had the nomination handed over to a white candidate by largely white Super Delegates. There would be a sense of outrage that would make direct links from this election to a long legacy of efforts to first prevent and then dilute the impact of Black voters. Second, there would be organized efforts in the African American community to get Blacks to sit this election out. And those efforts would be well-received by Blacks who have an underlying sense that maybe we've not gotten much in exchange for our undying loyalty to the Democratic party. I'd go so far as to say that Black leaders who continued to push support for the Democratic party in general and Hillary Clinton in particular would find themselves the recipients of both animosity and ridicule within Black communities.

[Syco]

You didn't have to use so many words.

Put simple:
IS she wins it will be a white person taking what rightfully belongs to someone of color

[rikyrah]

You seem to be someone who gets it.

Black folk have been told ' pull yourself up by your bootstraps and follow the rules'.

Well, Barack Obama did just that.

He's never had a silver spoon in his mouth. Hell, he wasn't raised even comfortably middle-class. He's worked hard, and started from the bottom politically- beginning at ground zero in every political race he's run.

He followed the rules, and is succeeding.

If this is STOLEN from him, and yes, that's the ONLY way Hillary can get the nomination...

The Democratic Party as we know it will be torn asunder.

I'm from an immediate family of 12 Black Democrats. We vote in every election - primary and general.

ONLY 2 will vote for HIllary if she STEALS it from Obama.

TWO.

I know I'm not alone.

There comes a time for every generation of Black folks, where they have to make a choice:

Die Standing

or

Live on your knees (thank you, James Brown).

I would NEVER have thought this moment would be centered around Barack Obama, but this is the way the winds of history are shifting towards.

And, if it's STOLEN from Obama...

It won't be about Obama anymore. It will be about the repudiation of us as a community, as the most loyal constituency in the party.

I listen to these White Democrats spouting the BS about ' party unity'.....you live in delusional land.

Black folk are not having ANY PARTS of Hillary Clinton.

[Mesaywar]

There comes a time for every generation of Black folks, where they have to make a choice:

Die Standing

or

Live on your knees (thank you, James Brown).

And thank you, Rikyrah.

[notthistime]

No the Democrats will not have the level of support from the African American, other minorities or decent people of America regardless of ethnic make up because what is happening is wrong.

Barack is held responsible for the actions of an ENTIRE race of people and the past history of all associates while the other candidates are not responsible or held responsible for their OWN WORDS and ACTIONS? Barack and Michelle will not suffer any hardship if this election is stolen. For the first time thought citizens believed we could actually make a difference and influence real change.
Countries around the world are watching this election stating that it has been a long time since they perceive the US in a positive way.

This election cycle I fell for the belief that the US is in fact the land of the free and holds true to the promise of equal opportunity for ALL Americans and that was my stupidity. Anyone with a conscience should be moved to speak out against what is happening in front of them. It is blatant that the goal post is being moved daily for Barack. The media is prepping us for stealing this election which is WRONG and if we have any decency we have to do something about it.



.

[SicPlurisPoenaPrestantia]

It's quite a simple equation:

Obama might not win without the support of rural white voters (who might well support him if McCain looks like a disaster).

Hillary CAN NOT win the general election without the full support of African Americans -- and if she is the nominee, then they will stay home in droves out of righteous indignation.

I mean, if an intelligent, charismatic, progressive black man like Obama cannot be president, then it becomes pretty clear that no black man will ever become president.

[Nolawi]

I second this comment

[Nobuks]

Dear African Americans, we're sorry. We didn't mean to use racial prejudice and fear against your people, but you have to understand; we really wanted to win. Also, you must realize that America really doesn't feel that your race has earned the entitlement yet to run for President. Senate, ok, major administration positions, ok, but not POTUS. You see, you scare people. You dress differently, you listen to scary music, and you just can't seem to let go of the fact that we enslaved you, and denied you right up until just recently. Now, if your people would just learn to let this whole slavery issue go, learn to dress like us, and adapt to our culture, well you may find more doors being opened to you. Besides, even you have to admit, that it was a woman's turn this time, eh. So, let's move on, let's put this all behind us. One day, maybe, you will be allowed to run for the highest office in the land, especially if you become more like us. So, keep your hopes up, and remember, Vote for Hillary!
Sincerely, Hillary and Bill Clinton.

[standforpeace]

That's about the size of it. And that's just not going to cut it.

[Syco]

That is funny and probably true for many people. Just because we aren't enslaved anymore doesn't mean that racism is over and done. It is still alive today and growing stronger and stronger as the years go on.

Thats why we have terms like Oreo.

Personally I enjoy scaring white folk but i don't do often.

[jade7243]

The problem is that "white pundits" don't "know" any African-Americans.

They don't "know" black folks. They read statistics, they "see" black people on TV or in the movies, occasionally interview some celeb or back when they were cub reporters conducted a man on the street interview in the 'hood once. They do not "know" black folks because from their tinted window Mercedes and gated communities they don't live, socialize, worship or educate with them. They live in that stratosphere where minorities are there for your service and convenience.

Witness Chris Matthews or Tim Russert. To them, "working class voter" has only one face: white. These two "influential, smart" pundits couldn't grasp the impact of the "Gays, Guns and God" voters. Twice (Ohio and PA). Yet, they're both hair-trigger happy to call Sen. Obama "elitist," "arrogant" and "out of touch" because he likes orange juice, prefers basketball to bowling, went to college and was refreshingly honest assessing his chances in San Francisco, "elitist capitol of the world."

Heads up: Black voters will not back Clinton in the fall. They all won't share my rationale for not supporting her. But bottom line, the Clintons are now on par with Jesse Helms. The "moving goalposts" resonate with black folk everywhere. We've been there, had to go through that.

November 5 may find many of us with something far more important to do than give the white lady the keys to 1600 once again. I'm planning a spa day.

[Mesaywar]

"Heads up: Black voters will not back Clinton in the fall. They all won't share my rationale for not supporting her. But bottom line, the Clintons are now on par with Jesse Helms. The 'moving goalposts' resonate with black folk everywhere. We've been there, had to go through that."



Thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you. Especially, for the paragraph I quoted.
People who have not experienced it just don't seem to understand what is being said, and you have put it more clearly than anyone here.

The old, "black folks have got to be twice as good, just to get by" scenario is being played out for all the world to see. Obama's raising twice as much money and winning twice as many states, but still he's the one who is unelectable.

[Syco]

Thats how racism works.

[Syco]

I bet there will be Clinton Supporters here saying that black people complain too much because we have it so good.

[standforpeace]

I am with you but still hopeful that you and I will both be spending the day getting out the vote for Barack Obama.

[katefranklin]

Will black voters reward the Clintons for their apalling campaign? It all depends on how much they care about pro-choice and universal health care. By nearly all other measures, Hillary is quite similar to McCain. They're two activist-hating, Iraq war authorizing, old politics loving, Washington establishment moderates that toss out threats to Iran light-heartedly. Decisions, decisions.

[standforpeace]

African Americans are more conservative on abortion than are whites. As for the prospect of universal health care -- the mere chance of that change would not be enough to overcome the animosity that Hill and Bill have built up among their formerly most loyal supporters -- African American voters.

[vannablack]

I will never vote for Hillary. The woman is vile and her husband is worse. They are the kind of racists one can only pity because they are in denial about their own prejudices. African-Americans who are not feeding at the Clinton trough should not support them.

[Grunty1]

If Hillary is the nominee, the Democratic Party will lose African Americans for the near team and possibly for quite a while. Chances are the GOP cannot shed its image as a bunch of supremacists without losing one of their primary bases, ignorant bigots, so it does not seem likely that the GOP will be able to pick up their support their.

[Syco]

I think the Black Panthers are about to get political

[RyanB]

Great post. I've been thinking a lot about this issue too - and what really troubles me is the Clinton campaign's blatant disregard for this problem. "Oh, Obama wins Virginia/SC/urban areas b/c of the Black vote" - sure, but why doesn't she seem concerned about this? Because she doesn't care. She'll lose in November with my family's vote - and I don't think many of them will turn out for her.

[Bullyness]

I can not in good conscience vote for John McCain or Hillary Clinton and voting should be a decision of conscience. Were Barack Obama to end the campaign with more pledged delegates and Hillary was to garner the necessary superdelegates because of a media-driven evisceration of the only candidate who seems to be willing to take a moral stand, I cannot support something that I view as immoral.
I dont believe in win at all cost. Its ironic that the media and voters would be offended by so-called divisive, unpatriotic words not from the candidate, but tacitly and implicitly support divisive and unpatriotic acts by its officials and candidates. Lies, support of torture, votes to support and unjust war dont matter, what church you attended, what was said there, that matters. Perhaps when America is ready to have an honest debate the African American community will return, but right now what is the point.

[Mesaywar]

I completely agree with you.

[Sphinx06]

I'm tired of the Soap Opera known as the Clintons. It is way past time to put them out of syndication. The Economy is in the tank, we have a war of choice that is bankrupting the country and all folks want to talk about is flag pins and what a former pastor has said. This is the policy of distraction that has given us the destruction of the U.S. known as George W. Bush.

[MillMom]

I will not come back. I have real concerns with the Clintons - they've been connected with criminal activities, with covering up criminal activities, and then there are the poor white house interns to worry about. I don't understand why int he midst of asking Barack about his views as the pertain to Rev. Wright's views (which are legitimate questions), no one is asking Hillary how she can assure us that there will not be the same numerous scandals that plagued their previous two terms? Those things are much more closely tied to her own judgment and character than playing connect-the-dots between Barack and Farrakhan, but no one is asking!!

I will vote for McCain in a heartbeat. If it's not Barack, I'd rather have lower taxes.

[Nolawi]

is second this comment also