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Eric Schurenberg

Eric Schurenberg

Posted: October 8, 2009 11:42 AM

What to Do About the Depressed Dollar

What's Your Reaction?

The dollar, the punching bag of global currencies, took another pounding in Asian currency markets today. It is not, as Vladimir Putin would have it, a sign of American eclipse. But don't be afraid to take a hint, either. If all your money is in investments tied to the dollar, let this be your motivation to start getting a little cosmopolitan.

From an American point of view, the mugging of the buck has been the dark side of the global recovery. One reason for the dollar's weakness is that the rebound is shaping up to be weaker in the U.S. than in other economies, especially those in Asia and those tied to commodity exports, like Canada and Australia. This morning, for example, we learned that half a million U.S. workers filed for unemployment last week. Yesterday, we clocked the seventh consecutive month of shrinking consumer debt (that means American consumers are not buying; and if we're not buying, we're not recovering). Australia, by contrast, added 40,600 new jobs and the Aussie central bank is raising interest rates out of concern that housing prices are rising too fast. (Wouldn't you love to have that problem again?!)

Just to put it in perspective, an Aussie dollar cost 60 cents back in November. Now it fetches 89 cents, a more than 30% climb against the greenback.

The strong consensus right now is that the dollar's skid will continue. But who knows? As Conrad de Aenlle argues in his MoneyWatch.com column, Against the Grain, the near universal pessimism may be reason to expect the opposite in the short run. He's right: I wouldn't place any big bets against the dollar right now. Markets are great at confounding the majority opinion.

Taking the long view, though, you can't ignore some well-entrenched reasons for concern about the dollar's position:


  • The U.S. share of world economy will shrink. That's not my opinion; it's simple arithmetic. But it presages less demand for dollars relative to other currencies.

  • The world will be flooded with dollars as the Fed and Congress continue to try to stimulate the economy. Too many dollars and too little demand equal a lower price.

  • To right the global trade imbalance, the U.S. will eventually have to import less and the rest of the world will have to import more. If that's the goal, a weaker dollar is going to look awfully convenient to policy makers.


The best hedge against a weak dollar is to move some of your money into international investments-in installments over the next six months at least, so that you're not piling in at the bottom. The standard advice is to have at least 20% of your stock portfolio in international mutual funds, simply as a matter of prudent diversification. (My colleague Larry Swedroe blogs the case for international diversification and MoneyWatch.com contributor Jeff Nash names some low-cost, consistent international stock funds.) Falling short of the modest 20% benchmark amounts to a bet, conscious or otherwise, that the dollar and the U.S. stock market have the best prospects in the international markets. Not to make too much of the recent past, but is that a call you really mean to make?


Continue reading on CBSMoneyWatch.com

 

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The dollar, the punching bag of global currencies, took another pounding in Asian currency markets today. It is not, as Vladimir Putin would have it, a sign of American eclipse. But don't be afraid to...
The dollar, the punching bag of global currencies, took another pounding in Asian currency markets today. It is not, as Vladimir Putin would have it, a sign of American eclipse. But don't be afraid to...
 
 
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This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
07:32 PM on 11/15/2009
Not to worry. If our dollar's value declines and buys less, we can just print some more.
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marinara
12:11 PM on 10/12/2009
I love reading blogs, but I can't understand why this blog doesn't mention inflation. I would rather have my info firsthand, rather than reading a sanitized blog.
11:15 AM on 10/12/2009
No wonder the trust and respect in the dollar has plummeted. It’s a catch-22 situation for Obama and the USD. As Churchill once said, “it’s only when you risk losing what you can least afford to lose that you learn to play the game.”

It’s not just the country’s future that’s on the line…the US sets the tone for much of the world and Brand America is inextricably tied to the USD brand. Therefore, it is not just an economic problem, but a brand problem: we have a battered reputation, no trust in our leadership, erosion of our market share, pummeled profits, crippled projected revenues, dwindling customer loyalty and a severed stock price.

So will (our brand champion) Obama seek to obviate the dollar’s fall from grace and its global role as the world's reserve currency or does he acquiesce (too much) to domestic pressure and persist in bailing out everything from too big to fail businesses, banks hoarding their lucre, relief to credit crunched Americans and investors desires for increased corporate profits? Or is it just too late? See The Almighty Dollar on www.punchandkiss.wordpress.com.
08:21 AM on 10/11/2009
The simple fact of the matter is whne the US hit peak oil in 1971 Nixon was forced to remove us off the gold standard becasue from that moment forward we had to pay another country large sums of money for our energy requirements. You simply cannot maintain a stable, unchanging currency base in that scenario. You have to debase the currency so that you are paying with ever lesss valuable dollars. You have to. The alternative was to halt the American economy as we know it in it's tracks. This is what aged Jimmy Carter 20 years in 4. He was like "HOLY COW!'. Then we got tha aging actor and everything's gonna be alright we been living the high life for 30 years and now that it is over I ask you : Was it worth it? Did you really need 500 horses under the hood? Did you have to burn all of it up as fast as you possiblly could? This was our leadership.
04:48 PM on 10/09/2009
We are third world the dollar is going down maybe we can sell some stuff to Canada for a change.

Will oil nations ditch the dollar? Gulf states deny claims of ...
Big oil producing nations denied a report today that Gulf Arab states were in secret talks with Russia, China, Japan and France to replace the U.S. dollar with a ...
dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1218548/...
11:06 AM on 10/09/2009
Falling US production and insane amounts of money printing are a recipe for massive hyperinflation. Instead of borrowing to pay for his programs, Obama should be raising taxes on the rich.
07:19 PM on 10/10/2009
Which "rich" should he raise taxes on? The ones that inherited it? The ones that earned it in the past? The ones who are currently earning it? The ones that own businesses and are providing jobs? The ones who are employees in big corporations? Doctors?

Your choices are either taking away what people already have or taking away their incentives to be productive in the future. There are better answers, like stop spending so much. Bring all our troops home from where ever they are in the world. No more foreign aid. No more pet projects for congressmen. Slim down the beaurocracies. Spending less would also make the dollar stronger.
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marinara
02:15 PM on 10/12/2009
best way not to get into a ditch is not to drive into it. Obama's policies would actually make sense if the situation was different.
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09:49 AM on 10/09/2009
The very best thing that could happen right now to the American Dollar ... is for its Government to stop using it as, basically, an instrument of financial fraud. There are so many "phantom Dollars" in circulation right now that they have lost all meaning, and yet, what is that Government continuing to do? Yep: 'borrow' millions of dollars a minute, 24/7/365. Is that really "borrowing?" Of course not.

No sensible businessman in any other country is going to continue indefinitely to be beholden to a currency that is being so brazenly manipulated. How can you "earn" a million US Dollars in a business transaction when the Government of the United States "conjures" an equivalent amount of money several times over in the brief amount of time it took you to read and moderate this message?
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dadw5boys
Disabled Vietnam Vet
04:40 AM on 10/13/2009
taking money out of the system is what caused this problem. Too much in the hands of a few.
06:20 PM on 11/22/2009
no. there was never too few dollars in circulation.
yappnmutt
humping legs for liberty
08:03 PM on 10/08/2009
exporting raw materials and importing finished products is a third world economy.

the world has said it is done with the dollar. their only concern is that the diversification is orderly. it never is.

the stock market will go up in value as the value of the dollar declines because the companies don't lose their intrinsic value. they just reflect that it takes more dollars to buy the same value.

there will be a dramatic devaluation of the dollar in the near future(sooner rather than later) because that is simply what happens in these situations.. during the zimbawe anargentina currency devaluation the price of gold skyrocketed in terms of the currency. the same will happen to the price of gold in dollar terms, as will commodities including food.

this is not difficult to forecast but apparently it is to the same people who missed the realestate bubble.
ThePeacemakers
Concerned Citizen
02:56 PM on 10/08/2009
In plain language, if the US consumer is saving and not spending, the rats on Wall St. will just extract the wealth they need.

It's wealth extraction in this country, not creation. The speculators are useless parasites. We don't need Wall St to have an economy.
12:08 PM on 10/08/2009
Welcome to America - the new Italy.