The Israeli Center Cannot Hold

While anxiety over Avigdor Lieberman has thus far focused on his race-baiting statements and campaign, Lieberman's ascent suggests another worrisome trend endemic to Israeli politics. In every election since the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin, third parties diverted key fragments of the Israeli mainstream from the two largest parties, leading to coalition governments guaranteed to collapse before they could address Israel's most pressing concerns.

Very broadly speaking, the Oslo Peace Process gave Israelis two clear choices: the Labor Party favored a negotiated peace with the Palestinians, while Likud was skeptical of a two state solution. But Israelis have consistently failed to back either of these visions in sufficient numbers to form stable governments. Instead, third parties with very specific agendas have won disproportionate power, unsettling any mainstream consensus. Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu ("Israel is our home") inherits the mantle of Kadima, Shinui, and Shas in the previous three elections. Importantly, these parties' moments of power have been short-lived and ineffectual. Lead by figures whose cult of personality take the place of workable platforms, such parties' influence frays once charged with the responsibilities of government.

These parties mushroom by cobbling together unrecognized, unstable demographic pockets, whom they immediately betray by joining ideologically dissonant coalitions. Such governments accomplish little before leaving the stage, and delay progress on Israel's existential issues. None of these parties maintained their status for more than one term -- the lofty promises of their leaders (and fearful warnings from critics) never materialized. The present stalemates outlasted them all.

The destabilizing effects of this pattern cannot be underestimated. Worse yet, the nature of each third party's contraction or collapse set the stage for the cycle to continue. Lieberman appears to have mastered this game in all its absurdity.

Like Lieberman today, the religious Sephardi Shas party stoked the passions of an alienated ethnic bloc in 1999. They became the largest third party, necessitating their inclusion in Ehud Barak's coalition. Shas then torpedoed Barak's final status negotiations with the Palestinians, bolting from the government while Barak was at Camp David. Barak's government fell apart, and the peace process exploded in a wave of terror.

The Shinui party became the next "kingmaker" in 2003 thanks to an anti-religious backlash, marshaled by the demagoguery of party leader Tommy Lapid (whose secularist rhetoric Lieberman skillfully employs). Shinui, however, offered no ideas on the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian violence. It entered into a coalition with its nemeses, the ultra-Orthodox parties. Shinui imploded, and Israel went to elections once more in 2006.

Israelis again spurned the traditional division between dovish and hawkish governments, increasingly voting for radical solutions - or radical deferral. Arik Sharon's Kadima party proposed to address the Israeli-Palestinian issue with a hybrid platform: unilateral withdrawal from most of the Palestinian territories. This premise led to the ultimate coalition of the unwilling: advocates for a two-state solution with opponents to negotiation with Palestinians. The myth that equated Sharon with Israel's military prowess suppressed concern over who would govern Palestine after the Israelis left. Sharon suffered a stroke, Hamas took over Gaza, and two military disasters later, Kadima's promise proved illusory.

Lieberman came to the 2009 election with every trick up his sleeve: the Shas of the Russians, the Lapid of the anti-religious, the Sharon of the nationalists. As with previous third parties this decade, Yisrael Beiteinu's share of the electorate decimated the two leading contenders. Ironically, this sent Lieberman into an enormous coalition with the once-dovish Labor and the still-ultra-Orthodox Shas.

A longstanding argument holds that the best way to support Israel is to criticize its policies when they prove unsuccessful or immoral. Avigdor Lieberman's wild ideas about Israeli-Arabs, democracy, and the use of force provide the international community and left-wing Zionists with a useful proof. But Lieberman may only be king for day. While his views are easily condemned, attention should also focus on the electoral system (and the electorate) that gave rise to Yisrael Beiteinu, and will choose its replacement.

These successive Israeli governments have brought widely disparate agendas to the diplomatic table, while counting on a high level of American cooperation. Unable to wrest achievements out of Israel's shifting political landscape, America may lower the priority afforded to this ally as it pursues its own goals in the Middle East and beyond. Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman personifies an Israel that is not at home with itself, and will find it difficult to be welcomed abroad.

Comments

[zjp]

I think the article was extremely insightful and thorough; it gives a much clearer picture of the political dilemma Israelis face. It is a political system that is ripe for reform. But, I would suggest a follow up column detailing the challenges on the other side of the equation; neither Fatah nor Hamas are as monolithic as portrayed in the press and they seemed to get lumped together as two broad opposing parties. What are the interal political stuggles for Hamas and Fatah and are we likely to see from both in the near term?

[mystertee]

Ethan I think that you have really hit accord with your emphasis on why the Israeli government is so inneficient. The way that the parliamentary system is constructed consistently gives too much power to fringe groups that complete the coalition. I have read about how this structure gives the ultra religious an excessive amount of power but I have never thought about the Israeli -Palestinian conflict in these terms.

[alane317]

Ethan has presented a challenging issue to those who care deeply about peace in this contentious area of the world. Israel may be considered the only true democracy in the Middle East, but the way it elects its government makes for interesting politics! A person like Avigdor Lieberman can become a kingmaker based on a narrow issue. Like the United States, Israel could use a new leader who has the bigger picture and desires to be as inclusive as possible. Then maybe an Israeli government will last more than 20 months and ministers can accomplish the work of government.

[liminal67]

Has it ever?

http://pitchbendpost.blogspot.com/

[kingtaxl]

Mr. Pack,

There is much to agree with in what you write and the historical context you provide offers an opportunity to dig deeper into the underlying causes of the continued failures of Israeli coalition governments. At the end of your post, you write that Lieberman's ascension to power will lead to a renewed focus on the Israeli electoral process. This is most definitely true. While a range of suggestions have been made, ranging from the revolutionary -- Bernard Lewis recently proposed an " Anglo-American constituency model", to the evolutionary -- increasing the threshold of party representation from 2% to 5% or 10%, changing the electoral system is not an easy process and in fact misses the point. The missing factor in Israeli politics, and the factor that would unite and hold the center, continues to be the leadership void left by Rabin and Sharon. The recycling of past leaders -- Barak, Peres, Netanyahu-- clearly demonstrate this.

[gemcando06]

.How crazy is it to expect a peace between the Israelis who can't trust their government to attempt a Peace settlement and the Arabs who are locked into the idea that peace can only come when Israel is no more?

[chaos4700]

Last time I checked there was only one nation that was being systematically destroyed, and only one people who were being "driven into the sea" ( http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2003/jul/25/israel ). And that would be Palestine and its people.

[BubbaC33]

As usual your posting is not only wrong, but wrong-minded. Israel is not pushing anyone into the sea, for you to make such a claim is absurd.

[WFTomba]

The fractured structure of Israel's politics is probably an honest reflection of the indecision and uncertainty felt by the people.

If I were President of the U.S., I would send this message to Israel: "Your future existence is not in doubt. We will never allow an ally to be destroyed. But we cannot support you in your local, regional, and international efforts if you cannot decide what you want to do!"

[MalleusMaleficarum]

Netanyahu must be dreading his meeting with Obama next month. To get into the Oval Office face to face with Obama, Netanyahu will have to run a fiercesome gauntlet. Already, Hillary Clinton has opened up in closed sessions and in public demanding changes from Tel Aviv. Clinton's statements about the heartless and brutal destruction of Palestinian homes in East Jerusalem hit hard. George Mitchell has been applying pressure in his private meetings, and Uzi Arad has been given a very cold welcome in Washington where he is now suspected of espionage. While those embarrassing developmemts are taking in place, Obama has his hands outstretched to the Mulim world, granting interviews to Al-Arabiya, speaking in Istanbul and promising direct negotiations with Iran. In the meantime, US officials are meeting in private with Syria, Lebanon and the intermediaries with Hizbullah and Hamas. Netanyahu's worst nightmare has taken place. America is now running its own foreign policy sans his help. Netanyahu's only hope is to capitulate and cooperate with the new world order he is finding has little use for him or his outmoded policies. Reports from Tel Aviv suggest Netanyahu is enraged by the new turn of political wisdom in Washington. Friends in Tel Aviv say Netanyahu detests and fears Obama. Lieberman is not liked in Washington and may be denied a visa. Times are changing in the USA, and nowhere is the change felt more keenly than Tel Aviv.

[charlietuna11]

mr. pack, you take complex issues and break them down to a common denominator. seriously, i would have greater hope for middle east peace if you and other clear thinkers were part of future negotiations. the benefit of your thoughts are appreciated, keep blogging..­..

[Lindybomb]

Very insightful, but I disagree on two fronts-- this Lieberman/Beitenu hate platform is much more dangerous in and of itself than Shas or Shinnui ever was or will be. Secondly, you shouldn't advocate disbanding the parliamentary system--look at how vibrant and broad the discussions are in Israel around the different political platforms--and how boring and uninventive the Democrat-Republican rhetoric usually becomes.

[Ethan Pack - Huffpost Blogger]

A few respondents have mentioned that Israel's diffuse, multiparty system, despite its flaws, is on the whole positive because it cultivates debate that we miss out on in the U.S. (with a two party system). I am afraid this is a case of radical projection. For decades, many Americans have grown weary of the similarity between Democrats and Republicans. From this malaise, American observers of Israel may pine for a more "pluralistic" political field. But Israel's system does not represent the democratic process well. Israelis, unlike Americans, face existential crises in terms of its borders, national identity, treatment of minorities, etc. The debates may be more fascinating from afar, but the stakes of stagnation and inaction are dire.
What is the point of Meretz's rise in the early 1990's if the party has three seats today, and its political vocabulary has essentially been dead for a decade? Even from the perspective of a supporter of the smaller parties (be it Shinui, Meretz, or small rightist parties), the system is structured against longevity and tangible achievements. The "pluralism" it provides is a chimera. I do not "advocate disbanding the parliamentary system", but serious reforms are needed. This will not occur as long as corruption among Israeli politicians remains prevalent, and Lieberman's rise proves this shamelessness is as "credible" as ever.

[chaos4700]

Honestly, the rest of us are really tired of the "existential crisis" garbage the pro-Israeli cheerleading squad constantly throws out there. Last time I checked it was the Palestinians who were being driven off their homes, starved, or bombed in vast numbers.

[jeanrenoir]

The sooner the Lieberman-Netanyahu government collapses, the better. Israel is truly heading for the abyss if it bombs Iran and drives the world into Depression. The resulting rage in America from lower-class conservatives Israel has counted on in their war on Islam will be much angrier at Israel than they've been at AIG, if Israel is directly responsible for their families' loss of jobs and $10 gas at the pump. The firestorm against Israel will be incredible. Israel's only hope is for Obama's approach to Iran to succeed.

[shotei]

So you mean only lower-class Conservatives support Israel. Once they would move up the social scale and have better means to judge and analyze the situation, they would not support Israel. There is nothing to discuss with you based on that assumption.

[WoodyTanaka]

You need to learn reading comprehension. Nowhere did jeanrenoir say that only lower-class conservatives support Israel, nor that support for Israel depends on being low on the social scale. Sheesh.

[Sikander]

Something on the basis of UK system with ‘first past the post’ may be the way to go to bring stability to the electoral politics in Israel.

http://real-politique.blogspot.com

By Sikander Hayat

[phute]

Nothing adequately substitutes for strong government.
Successive weak governments in Israel have rendered it a basket case. Surely the electorate can't be so unsophisticated as to not want reform? Or maybe they are innured to it all.
Either way - if ever a political system was crying out for reform - it's Israels.

[sjloren]

Good analysis, but why not consider some of the benefits of the Israeli electorial system? Extreme parties may fade quickly, but they also serve an important role in making sure differences remain between mainstream parties. Currently, they pull the spectrum to the far right, but back in the day Meretz managed to yank Israel to the left.

[newyorkid]

I think the analysis misses the point completely. There are no doves. They are all hawks regarding the Palestinians. Palestine belongs to the Palestinians and only demographic changes will settle the question over time.

[Ethan Pack - Huffpost Blogger]

As for the responses that suggest this entire debate is irrelevant because "there is no Israeli Left", "all Israelis are the same," etc. It is remarkable how identical this sentiment is to that with which neo-conservatives and Israeli rightists traffic, which claim there "is no Palestinian partner," "they are all the same," etc. It should be clear that nothing will be resolved if we paint with such an absolutist brush. As Amos Oz wrote, "neither the Palestinians nor the Israelis are lucky enough to have the privilege of choosing their enemy." (Oz's 1992 Postcript to the English version of "In the Land of Israel" is insightful in this regard).
No matter how distasteful the political spectrum of either side appears, this is the reality from which we all must begin. If there are insufficient expressions of your own political ideas among the current/past leadership of Israelis and Palestinians, there is certainly no currency to the idea that the entirety of either people oppose peace. The debates that proceed from these assumptions are truly non-starters.

[chaos4700]

The difference between the Palestinians and the Israelis being that the Palestinians are fighting for their very existence while Israel is the most well-equipped military in the region, thanks to the US -- and they have no compunctions against using that force with extreme prejudice, as Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Sudan have all had demonstrated to them in recent years.

[3rdCitizen]

Excellent analysis. The main problem with the knee-jerk "support Israel no matter what they do" lobby in the U.S. is that it makes no distinction between when the government & policies are rational and when they're irrational. If you have a friend who's displaying signs of a mental disturbance, you're not helping him by reinforcing his delusions and justifying his destructive actions. Quite the opposite in fact.

[chaos4700]

There hasn't been a single Israeli government that has curbed illegal colonization of the West Bank. I have a hard time believing the "center" of Israeli politics is anything other than a black hole -- an event horizon beyond which no light can ever shine outward. All it does is keep sucking more into it and crushing it.

[arvay]

Before he was assassinated, Sadat was asked abut which Israeli parties were easier to deal with.

His reply, paraphrased, was that they are all really the same.

Wisdom.

[shotei]

Very wise. Based on all the Arab parties thar run on all Arab countries' elections, they must be real experts in party dynamics. Sadat could talk about that too.
Hmm. Wisdom.

[shotei]

Except when they withdraw from Gaza and establish as its requirement to talk to Hamas its recognition of Israel's right to exist. They just don't know when to stop, do they?
Chaos4700, I believe that settlements should stop as soon as possible and a solution be found, be it withdrawal, evacuation or even Palestinian citizenship (after all, there are Arab Israelis, why couldn't there be Jewish Palestinians for those who refuse to leave the settlements once a state is declared?). Anyway, what's troubling in all your comments is that Palestinians don't have to do anything. Israelis are wrong all the way and they are the ones that should take all steps.
That impairs all your views, even though you show a lot of content and facts, you just close your eyes to the fact that there are TWO parties in this conflict and BOTH have to make bold gestures and sacrifices.

[chaos4700]

Israel didn't withdraw from Gaza, for starters. The IDF maintains Gaza in conditions that are rapidly approaching those of the Warsaw Ghetto. Second, as I have pointed out numerous times: 8,000 settlers out of Gaza, 14,000 settlers into the West Bank. Do you honestly think we're fooled by this shell game? Your government even bragged about it -- check out this article here, especially where they talk about "formaldeh­yde."

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=485929

[phute]

No it's you whose views are impaired - you seem to have enormous difficulty in addressing the issue without trying to divert it onto another topic. The one being discussed is the Israel electoral system and it's inherent problems.

[WoodyTanaka]

You're kidding, right? The Palestinians have been living the word "sacrifice" for sixty years. Get a grip.

And when does Israel recognize Palestine's right to exist?? It has done everything it can to prevent the formation of a Palestinian state. So why is it okay for Israel not to recognize the deny the right of Palestine to exist, but Hamas is somehow wrong for not recognizing Israel's??