The popular uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen and Bahrain have not only shaken the foundation of the authoritarian order in the Middle East, but they have also hammered a deadly nail in the coffin of a terrorism narrative which has painted Al-Qaeda as the West's greatest threat. At least, they should have.
Yet despite Osama bin Laden's killing in May, the dwindling of his group to the palest shadow of its former self and the protest of millions across the Arab world for whom the group never represented, Al-Qaeda holds a grasp on the Western imagination. Few Americans and Westerners realize the degree to which their fear of terrorism is misplaced, making closure over to the costly War on Terror difficult, if not impossible. Shrouded in myth and inflated by a self-sustaining industry of so-called terrorism "experts" and a well-funded national security industrial complex whose numbers swelled to nearly one million, the power of Al-Qaeda can only be eradicated when the fantasies around the group are laid to rest.
Myth 1: Al-Qaeda has been operational for more than two decades
Contrary to the conventional terrorism narrative, Al-Qaeda has not been a functional organization with the goal of targeting the West for the past 20 years. By the time the American forces expelled bin Laden and his associates from their base in Afghanistan at the end of 2001, Al-Qaeda, as we know it today, was only five years old.
At the end of the Afghan war in 1989, none of the leading figures -- Sheikh Abdullah Azzam, Ayman al-Zawahiri, nor bin Laden -- called for targeting the United States or the West. Even after the catalyst for change in bin Laden's thinking -- the American military intervention in the Gulf in 1990 and its permanent stationing of troops in Saudi Arabia -- the group did not translate this hostility into concrete action. Rather, it was during bin Laden's time in Sudan in the mid-1990s where he combined business practices with ideological indoctrination.
Myth 2: Al-Qaeda has lots of boots on the ground
At its height of its power in the late 1990s, Al-Qaeda had between 1,000 and 3,000 members. Transnational jihadism of the Al-Qaeda variety has, in fact, never had a large constituency, nor a solid base of popular support: Al-Qaeda has never been a viable social movement, but truly a fringe group without mass appeal among Muslim opinion. Contrary to received wisdom, September 11 did not turn out to be Al-Qaeda's baptism by fire, a force multiplier, a game changer. There was no river of young recruits to rise up and join the fight against the head of kufr (impiety) -- the U.S. -- as had happened with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the late 1970s. Western intelligence officials believe that there are fewer than 200 surviving members of Al-Qaeda, based mainly in Pakistan and Afghanistan and mostly unskilled composed of cooks, drivers, bodyguards and food soldiers.
Myth Three: Al Qaeda has the same philosophy as other militant Islamist organizations
While distinctions are rarely made between domestic jihadis and transnational Al-Qaeda types, or between Al-Qaeda and politically based Islamists, such as the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas or Hizbullah, Al-Qaeda, with deep historical roots in Muslim societies, is an ideological orphan within the military Islamist family, an ambitious venture founded and led by a small vanguard. Grouping all these organizations together glosses over a history of ideological struggles within militant Islamist groups and even among Al Qaeda's inner sanctum of leaders over the concept of transnational jihad. From its origins in the late 1950s until the mid-1990s, a period of almost forty years, the militant Islamist movement known as "jihadism" was inward-looking, obsessed with replacing "renegade" secular Muslim rulers with Qur'anic-based states or states governed by the sharia (Islamic law). In the 1990s bin Laden and Zawahiri twisted these ideologies to suit their purposes of fighting the 'far enemy' -- the U.S. and its close Western allies -- which they believed would attract enough followers to build an army and momentum enough for their nearer battles.
Myth Four: While Al-Qaeda Central has suffered a defeat with the loss of bin Laden, local 'branches' of Al-Qaeda in Yemen, Iraq, Pakistan, Somalia and Indonesia will continue to try to attack the U.S. and the West
The material links and connections between local branches and Al-Qaeda Central are tenuous at best: far from being an institutionally coherent social movement, Al-Qaeda is a loose collection of small groups and factions that tend to be guided by charismatic individuals and are more local than transnational in outlook. Most victims are therefore Muslim civilians. Further, these branches tend to be as much a liability for the long term strategic interests of Al-Qaeda Central as they are assets. Abu Musab Zarqawi, the emir of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, proved to be Al-Qaeda Central's worst enemy. He refused to take orders from bin Laden or Zawahiri and, in fact, acted against their wishes, according to his own desires. Like Zarqawi, local groups or franchises -- like Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) or Al-Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb -- which the terrorism narrative often paints as being closely aligned and commanded by Al-Qaeda Central in fact have proven repeatedly that they run by their own local and contextualized agendas, not those set among the inner sanctum of Al-Qaeda Central.
Myth Five: The War on Terror has made Americans safer and has decreased the likelihood of attacks on the country
There is a clear causal link between incidences of homegrown terrorism in the West and the post-9/11 wars fought in Afghanistan and Iraq, and more recently in Pakistan and Yemen. Far from weeding out individual terrorists drone by drone to put an end to Al-Qaeda and its violence, the American offensive since 9/11 has fed into the Al-Qaeda narrative which paints the West as a Judeo-Christian crusader and, ironically, inspired a new generation of homegrown radicals. Despite their apparent tactical success, U.S. counterterrorism measures like drone attacks further fuel anti-American sentiments and calls for vengeance. Yet neither the U.S. national security apparatus nor terrorism experts acknowledge a link between the new phenomenon of bottom-up extremism and the U.S. War on Terror, particularly in Afghanistan-Pakistan.
Further, despite the phenomenal expansion of the intelligence machine as part of the War on Terror, this machine has failed to detect the few serious attacks and plots against the U.S. homeland, such as the Fort Hood, Texas, shooting that left thirteen dead, the so-called underwear bomber plot, or the 2009 Christmas Day bomb attempt, which was thwarted not by one of the almost one million individuals with top-secret clearances employed to find lone terrorists but by an alert airline passenger who saw smoke coming from a seatmate. In the Times Square bombing, an alert vendor called the police after he saw smoke coming out of a parked SUV. Even when the U.S. pays more than $5 billion for 1 million employees with security clearances to hunt members of Al-Qaeda, absolutely security cannot exist. The security of the West is organically linked to that of the rest of the world. And U.S. leaders must think twice before pursuing counterterrorism measures which alienate Muslim public opinion and breed homegrown terrorists.
***
The war with Al-Qaeda is over. Western leaders must level with their citizens: Al-Qaeda poses only a security irritant, not a serious threat. Terrorism cannot be eradicated with drone attacks or even massive military interventions, all of which are, in any case, costly. Rather than battling against a mythic foe, the U.S. and Western powers should expedite the withdrawal of soldiers from Muslim territories where their presence is a painful reminder of the European colonial legacy of domination and subjugation.
Further, the U.S. and others offer assistance in rebuilding Yemen and Pakistan's institutions and empowering them to address those serious localized threats, yet resist the temptation of turning the struggle into a war between Al-Qaeda and the West. Taking up the anti-Western mantle is the only option for the survival of localized Al-Qaeda groups, and it behooves the United States and its allies not to give them a chance.
Tyranny, dismal social conditions, authoritarian political systems, and the absence of hope provide the fuel that powers radical, absolutist ideologies in the Muslim world. It is not enough to focus on the violent ideology of Al-Qaeda without devoting sufficient attention to the social conditions that give rise to it. If the Arab awakenings of the past year manage to fill the gap of legitimate political authority, they will annihilate the last dregs of Al-Qaeda and like-minded local branches. Only then will Al-Qaeda, like Osama bin Laden, not only die, but, finally, be allowed to die.
Fawaz A. Gerges is a Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics. His most recent book is The Rise and Fall of Al-Qaeda (Oxford University Press, 2011). I want to thank my research assistant, Ms. Dania Akkad, for editing the article.
It's about proportional response. After 9/11, instead of stepping back, taking some deep breaths and then making a cold, careful calculation of how to respond, America dove through the smoke with an Uzi in each hand, firing in all directions. All because a few thousand fringe Muslim extremists got very, very lucky with a complex plan.
I am NOT minimizing the horror of what happened on 9/11, believe me! But was the invasion of two countries (only one of which was at all justified), another 6000+ Americans killed, more than 11,000 wounded, the deaths of tens of thousands of Muslim civilians and the empowerment of our own government to indefinitely detain SUSPECTED terrorists the proper response? Did that response aid our security or merely add more radicals to the cause? Did that response gain us allies in counter terrorist operations or make it harder to get cooperation?
Erik
http://eaprince.blogspot.com
This statement is absolute nonsense. Having worked in the intelligence field all my life, I can agree that there are likely many people who don’t need security clearances. However, the possession of a security clearance means only that you have been investigated and found eligible to see classified information at a certain level. Security clearances are given to all sorts of support staff (janitors, construction workers, engineers, computer specialists, secretaries, low-ranking soldiers) who may never, ever, see a classified document. Clearance does not mean access. Many with security clearances could not even tell you what Al-Qaeda is, let alone spell it. Many people have clearances and work in many other fields other than intelligence collection on terrorism. Just to work in certain government buildings one may need to be investigated as for a security clearance but never actually granted one, let alone see any information.
So I have no clue as to what this $5 billion number means or who these 1 million employees are. The statement makes for interesting headlines but the information is not worth a rat's patootie. That calls into question anything else Mr. Gerges writes. He ought to know better.
Erik
http://eaprince.blogspot.com
I stand by my assertion that these people are criminals. NOT soldiers. We are not waging war. We are engaging in law enforcement.
In the end Afghanistan's stability, just like Iraq's, depends on it's people, not our troops.
Erik
http://eaprince.blogspot.com
Excellent analysis. Everytime I go through an airport I am reminded rudely how Al Quaide, "our fear", won and we lost.
in islamic communities, Ialamic terrorism is a figment of Western imperialist imagination. London and Madrid trains, Bali,Beslan-, New York, Mumbai. None of it is real.
yes we understand why 911 denial is so prevalent in your communities.
If you look at America before 9/11 and after, it's obvious that bin Laden did achieve many of his stated goals. We've spent ourselves into oblivion on wars and the largest bureaucratic expansion in our history. We have a society that is at least as scared of terrorists from the shadows as we ever were of a Soviet nuclear attack. We have taken actions and instituted policies that would have shocked and outraged pre 9/11 America. We've given government and law enforcement unprecedented powers to detain anyone SUSPECTED of terrorist activities. And I've seen many seemingly level headed people become frothing, militant hawks overnight. The only things Bin Laden didn't get from 9/11 was a global surge in Islamic militancy and the survival of his organization.
Erik
http://eaprince.blogspot.com
Terror and instability in many non-Western countries have more to do with conditions of those places than USA. At least directly. Not as if we were always on the right side either.
I can understand why "your communities" have fallen victim to relentless fear mongering. It is a massive industry, who can resist?
The struggle with this brand is ideological as well as political and military. Just because Al Qaeda's presence is diffused doesn't make the struggle any less fierce, or important.
Al Qaeda may be - as the author excellently puts it - no more than a "security irritant", but the erosion of civil liberties, ever-growing surveillance, so many wars-in-all-but-name that we're starting to lose count, and the growth of an already bloated security sector are not figments of anyone's imagination.
The war is not on Al Qaeda, but on democracy, freedom, and government accountability. Al Qaeda is the blanket that covers what's really going on.
From 2001, the height of Al Qaeda popularity in the Muslims world, backing for Bin Laden fell from 58% to 12% in Jordan; from 59% to 41% in Indonesia, according to the Pew Center.
Without a doubt devastating defeats Al Qaeda networks suffered on various operational battlefields throughout the world caused Al Qaeda brand to drastically fall in its popularity across the Islamic world. The fact that majority of young idealistic Muslims who joined Jihad failed to come back to their families had something to do with it as well.
Commiserations from Iran were rejected in favour of a program of demonisation of that country which directly led to the ouster of Khatamis moderate government in favour of the hard line one today. In lebanon Hezbollah condemned the 911 attacks and looked to be moving toward a more moderate stance toward Israel. Cue Cowboy Georges blunderbuss antics and we are now in a world filled with a seething hatred for Uncle Sam and DESERVEDLY SO.
Fact:immediately after 9/11 Al Qaeda and Osama enjoyed stratospheric popularity in the Muslims world.
In 2002 Osama ( Pew Global poll) popularity stood at:
Jordan at :56%; Palestinians- 72%; Indonesia-- 59%:
Fact:After years of Al Qaeda defeats in Iraq, Afghanistan, Europe. U.S. and Africa, Al Qaedas popularity has fallen dramatically.
In 2010 Osama's ( Pew Global) popularity dropped dramatically- Jordan-14%: Palestinians- 25%; Indonesia-- 34%
These are basic and apparent facts proven by numerous reliable polls. Take the time to study statistics. It's rather illuminating.
targeting muslim civilians is probably al qeada biggest self-defeating move; that is why the sunnis in iraq formed councils to battle them, but stopped when the shitte government targeted them as well.
This is a strawman argument set up.
There's no question that devastating defeats of Al Qada -related networks has drastically reduced their operational capability. It seems the best they can do now is Faisal Shahzad ( Time Square bomber) who couldn't even make an operational explosive device. Oh, by the way, he was apprehended, tried and now spending the rest of his life in prison.
"By the time the American forces expelled bin Laden and his associates from their base in Afghanistan at the end of 2001, Al-Qaeda, as we know it today, was only five years old."
OK. so it's not 20 years, but 17 years! Wow!
To fully understand Al Qaeda, we have to really know, what Al Qaeda really is and what it isn't. What is Al Qaeda and what's behind it?
- http://www.infowars.com/al-qaedas-dark-secret-exposed/