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Chris Christie Could've Been A Contender

2011-10-04T22:55:00Z

WASHINGTON -- Chris Christie could've been a contender. That's the message of the latest HuffPost-Patch Power Outsiders survey of politically engaged Republican activists conducted on the eve of the New Jersey governor's announcement that he would not run for president.

We asked 156 Republican political activists, party officials and officeholders in the early primary and caucus states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina about their initial impressions of Christie, using the same four questions we've asked in previous weeks about Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann and Sarah Palin.

The Power Outsiders poll is an attempt to listen in on the "invisible primary" under way among influential local activists and political insiders that has historically driven the outcome of party nomination campaigns. This week, we heard from 37 Power Outsiders in Iowa, 53 in New Hampshire and 66 in South Carolina.

Their first impressions were largely favorable. We asked respondents to use one word to describe Christie. Fifty-seven percent of the words they offered were positive. The most frequent positive words were "bold," "strong," "direct" and "leader."

Another 12 percent of the words were near synonyms describing his personality, such as "blunt," "aggressive," "fiery," "feisty," "confrontational" and "bulldog." Many respondents likely intended these as positive, although some may have meant them as negative, so we broke this total out separately.

As with the other candidates, we heard many words (9 percent) that were either neutral or descriptive (such as "big" or "fat") or otherwise not easily interpreted as positive or negative (such as "moderate").

Only 16 percent of the words used to describe Christie were less ambiguously negative, including "unknown," "unproven" and "inexperienced."

More targeted questions show that the reaction to Christie on specific characteristics related to being a presidential candidate was largely positive as well. Nearly all (87 percent) said he takes stands on issues they agree with. Four out of five (80 percent) said he would make a good president. Three out of four (76 percent) said he could beat Barack Obama in a general election.

Overall, the favorable views of Christie on these questions fall a little short of what Romney registered, but are nearly identical to the reactions to Perry in early September just after he entered the presidential race. Christie's initial scores are just 3 percentage points higher than Perry's initial scores on taking agreeable stands on issues and making a good president and are identical on ability to beat Obama.

A Quinnipiac University poll of Republican voters nationwide conducted from Sept. 27 to Oct. 3 reached a similar conclusion. The survey found that if Christie were to run for the GOP presidential nomination, he and Romney would be tied for first, followed by Herman Cain with 12 percent and Perry at 10 percent.

So, like Perry, Christie made a strong first impression and would likely have surged to the front of the pack in national polling. Most of the local Republican insiders we surveyed in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina would have taken a closer look.

But therein lies the rub. As Rick Perry has learned the hard way, the voters' initial reaction is just that. As with Perry, early impressions of Christie may have been fleeting. Since he has decided against running, we'll never know whether he would have risen to the challenge or, to paraphrase Republican columnist John Ellis, would have fallen "in the discard pile with the others."

The HuffPost-Patch Power Outsiders

Our surveys are not a scientific random sample of any larger population but rather an effort to listen to a swath of influential, local Republican activists, party leaders and elected officials in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. All of the individuals listed below have agreed to participate in the Power Outsiders surveys, although not all responded to this week's questions. This week's interviews were conducted between Sept. 30 and Oct. 4, 2011.

Iowa

Robert Brownell (Polk County supervisor), Irene Chalmers-Neubauer (Republican precinct captain), Andy Christenson (local citizen activist), Mike St. Clair (Lobbyist), Arleigh Clemens (Co-Chair Johnson County Republicans), Creighton Cox (Local politician, council candidate), Jeremy Davis (Councilman), Tyler DeHaan (IT Services), Debra Derksen (PR person for Johnson County GOP), Paula Dierenfeld (Mayor, active Republican), Mike Elam (Organizer, Dallas County GOP), Paul Fell (Santorum supporter), Amanda Freel (State House Repub Staff), Steve Gaer (West Des Moines mayor), Natalie Ginty (Chairwoman, Iowa Federation of College Republicans), Rick Hermann (Sales Manager, WeatherTech Automotive), Libby Jacobs (former state representative), William Keettel (Former head, Johnson County Republicans), Kevin Koester (Congressman), Mary Kramer (former state senator), Marilyn Krocheski, Jon McAvoy (Head of Dallas County Republicans), Isaiah McGee (Owner, McGee strategies), Chris McLinden (Axis Human Capital, Businessman), Cynthia Michel (Precinct Captain), Mike Nolan (Republican Party noteable), Jim Sandager (West Des Moines city councilman), Rick Sanders (Republican Supervisor), Charles Schneider (West Des Moines city councilman), Chad Steenhoek (Member, Strong America Now), Wade Steenhoek (Ankeny City Council), Ronald Stenstrom (Romney Supporter), Karen Svede (Former statewide candidate), Rob Taylor (Running for Iowa House Seat), Deb Thornton (Worked in Republican administrations), Robert Wennerholm (Precinct Captain), Eric Woolson (Republican strategist), Randy Yontz (Director Leadership Institute)

New Hampshire

Eric Anderson (Former State Rep/Chair Bow Board of Selectmen), Gary Azarian (State Rep.), David Bates (Rep- Windham), Kathy Benuck (BCTV Host/Blogger), D.J. Bettencourt (State Rep., Maj. Leader), Diane Bitter (Rye Republican activist), Travis Blais (Windham GOP Chair), Bill Boyd (Town Councilor), Bruce Breton (Selectman), Russell Bridle (Former Hampton Fire Department captain/State Rep.), Ed Brooks (Former ME selectman, town councilor), Chris Buck (Republican activist), Chris Buda (Merrimack GOP Chair), Jamie Burnett (Consultant), John Cebrowski (State Rep. - Bedford), Chris Christiansen (State Rep), Mark Cookson (Alderman-at-large), Tim Copeland (State rep.), Jim Costello (American Government teacher), Juanita Dangel (Secretary Hillsborough County GOP), Gary Daniels (State Rep), Ed Declercq (Planning Board), Jerry Delemus (Republican activist), Shari Demers (Activist), Julie DiCarlo (Small business owner), Ron DiCarlo (Small business owner), Bob Duffy (Nashua GOP City Committee), Bob Elliott (State Rep.), Gary Ellmer (Chairman, Porsmouth Republican Committee), Frank Ferraro (Exeter Selectman), Laura Foote (Activist), Mauri Foster (Retired), Sheila Francoeur (Seacoast Republican Women member), Michael Gallagher (Nashua Republican City Committee, running for Alderman), Bianca Garcia (Former Salem GOP Victory Office mgr), David Garcia (Salem Town GOP Chair), John Graham (State Rep. - Bedford), Brian Griset (Member of local political committee), Lisa Hansen (Romney supporter), Peter Hansen (State Rep), Pat Hargreaves (Selectman), Jeff Hatch (Salem Romney Town Chair), Ken Hawkins (State Rep - Bedford), Dan St. Hilaire (Executive councilor), Dick Hinch (Current State Rep), Jennifer Horn (Republican activist), David Hurst (New Hampshire Young Republicans chairman), Zac Johnson (Technical writer), Ken Jones (Member of Amherst Republicans), Gary Krupp (Member of the School Budget Committee), Michael Lambert (Resident), Steve Landry (Small business owner), Tom Linehan (GOP Activist), Eduardo Lopez-Reyes (Software engineer), Marie Lopez-Reyes (Sales), Di Lothrop (Nashua GOP City Committee), Stephen E. Ludwick (Chairman, Supervisors of the Checklist, Ward 9), Jim Luther (State Senator), John Lyons (Lawyer), Kris MacNeil (Former State Senate candidate), Joel Maiola (Former Judd Gregg Chief of Staff), Andrew Manuse (State Rep - Derry), George Markwell (School Board Member), Harry McClard (Freelance writer), Patrick McDougall (Budget Committee), Charles McMahon (Rep- Windham), Bill Modis (Vice Chair of Amherst Republicans), Maureen Mooney (Past State Rep), Keith Murphy (State Rep - Bedford), Tasha Olsen (Republican activist), Rick Paige (Loan officer), Michele Peckham (State Rep. (N. Hampton)), Amy Perkins (State Rep. (Seabrook)), Lawrence Perkins (State Rep. (Seabrook)), Kathryn Peterson (community activist), Lenette Peterson (State Rep), Pam Price (former state rep), Lee Quandt (State rep.), Matt Quandt (Exeter Selectman/State Rep.), Tom Rath (Consultant), Fred Rice (State Rep. (Hampton)), Jim Rubens (Former Republican State Sen.), Pete Silva (Rep - Nashua), William Smith (Conservative Blogger), Brandon Stauber (Small business owner/recent Exeter transplant), Kathy Stroud (State Rep), Chris Tremblay (Activist), Pam Tucker (Deputy House Speaker), Mark Vincent (Chair of Amherst Republicans), Jim Waddell (State Rep. (Hampton)), Tom Walker (Conservative Republican), Robert Washburn (Former City Councilor), Kevin Waterhouse (Rep- Windham), Raymond White (State Sen. - Bedford), Alan Williams (North Hampton resident, former Exeter selectman), J. Christopher Williams (Pres. Nashua CC), Tony Zore (Tea Party member)

South Carolina

Aubry Alexander (Charleston City Council - District 9), Thomas Alexander (State Senator), Dean Allen (Tea Party Activist), Charm Altman (President Sea Island Republican Women), Patrick L. Arnold (Campaign and fundraising consultant), Todd Atwater (S.C. Rep. Dist. 87), Rep. Nathan Ballentine (SC House Dist. 71), Bob Barnwell (Richland Co. GOP Spring Valley), Joseph Bates, Jr. (Committeeman/ Richland Co. GOP Dutch Fork), Eric Bedingfield (State Rep/Congressional Staffer), Lin Bennett (Chair, Charleston County GOP), Rich Bolen (Chair, Lexington County GOP), Andrew Boucher (Business consultant and political advisor), Phillip Bowers (Chairman, Pickens County Republican Party), Dan Bracken (President/ The Auction Co. & Real Estate Inc.), Edward Britt (Engineer), Joe Bustos (Former town councilman), Jay Byars (Dorchester County councilman), Bob Call (Berkeley County Councilman), Tim Callanan (Berkeley County GOP Chairman), Mike Campbell (Son of former Gov. Carroll Campbell; co-chairman of Huntsman's S.C. effort), Ed Carter (Small business owner), M. Todd Cullum (Lexington County Council member), Rep. Joe Daning (Statehouse rep.), Smokey Davis (Lexington County Council member), Carroll S. Duncan (Dorchester GOP Chair), Dana Eiser (Lowcountry 9.12 president), Linda Eiser (9/12 conservative), Linda Estep (wife of Pastor at First Baptist Church of Columbia), Scott Farmer (Richland County GOP Committeeman), Chip Felkel (Political Consultant), Will Folks (Editor, fitsnews.com; spokesman for former Gov. Mark Sanford), Leland Glen (Author), Chris Godbey (Political Consultant), Susan Grady (Republican activist), Randy Halfacre (Mayor of Lexington), Dan Hamilton (State Representative), Carla Hardee (President, Dutch Fork Chapter of the S.C. Federation of Republican Women), Larry Hargett (Dorchester County Council chairman), Val Hutchinson (Richland County Council), Johnny Jeffcoat (Town of Lexington Economic and Community Catalyst; Lexington County Council member), Jim Jerow (Georgetown GOP Chair), Debbie Jones (9.12 Board Member), Joanne Jones (Republican activist), Grayson Kelly (Fundraiser), James Kinard (Banker, Chair, Lexington County Council), Todd Kincannon (Lawyer/former executive director of SC Republican Party), Bob Kouvolo (President/ MaxPt), Mickey Lindler (Chairwoman for Republicans of Lexington and Richland Counties), Chris Mann (City Councilman), Karen Martin (Organizer/Spartanburg Tea Party), Larry Martin (State Senator), Taft Matney (Conservative Political Consultant), James Metts (Lexington County Sheriff), Matt Moore (Executive Director for SC GOP), Susan Morris (Nonprofit executive director), Mike Murphee (Charleston Tea Party chairman), Brent Nelsen (Professor of Political Science/former candidate for Supt. of Education), Don Nye (Bank employee), Allen Olson (Chairman / Columbia TEA Party), Randy Page (President,South Carolinians for Responsible Government), Gregory Pearce (Richland Co. Councilman), Kathy Perry (Charleston County Republican Women), Adam Piper (SC GOP 3rd Vice Chairman & political director for Huntsman campaign), Zach Pippin (GOP Media Consultant), Tony Pope (Insurance agent), Barbara Pulicicchio (Political activist), Rick Quinn (S.C. Rep. Dist. 69), Dennis Raines (Mayoral Candidate), Jeff Reuer (Vice Chair Goose Creek 9-12), DeLinda Ridings (SC GOP State Secretary / Huntsman campaign), Robby Robbins (Lawyer), Emily Rudolph (Sea Island Republican Women), LaDonna Ryggs (Spartanburg GOP Chair), Michael Sally (Hanahan City Councilman), Dennis Saylor (Chair, Aiken GOP), Bill Severns (Rep. for Beaufort Republican Men), Katrina Shealy (Candidate for SC Senate from Lexington), Lanneau Siegling (State Executive Committeeman), Billy Simons (Conservative activist), Garry Smith (State Rep), Bill Banning, Sr. (Vice-chair, Lexington County Council), John Steinberger (Fair Tax activist), Mary Ann Taylor (Charleston County Republican Women/Charleston County School Board), MacLain R. Mac Toole (S.C. Rep., Dist. 88), Frank Townsend (Lexington County Council member), September Wellborn (State GOP Delegate), Knox White (Mayor of Greenville), Jennifer Willis (County Councilwoman/ V.P. One Tree Hill), Henry Wilson (2011 delegate, S.C. Republican Convention), James David Woodard (Professor of Political Science, Clemson University), Cheryl Woods-Flowers (Former mayor, Republican official)

Herman Cain's Polling Surge: Is It Real?

2011-10-04T18:25:33Z

WASHINGTON -- The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll yields more evidence of Rick Perry's September swoon, but the bigger story may be the sudden rise of support for businessman Herman Cain.

Mitt Romney has regained first place, winning 25 percent on the poll's match-up of the 2012 candidates, while Perry and Cain tie with 16 percent each. Perry's support has fallen by 13 percentage points and Cain's has increased by 12 percentage points since the last Post/ABC poll in early September.

But Cain does even better among those paying very close attention to the race. According to ABC News, Cain runs first among the most attentive Republicans with 36 percent, followed by Romney and Perry, with 24 and 12 percent respectively.

Can Cain continue to grow his support and make a real run for the Republican nomination? His support comes despite a lack of prior political or senior military experience. He will likely face great skepticism about his experience as the campaign moves forward, but his ascent to date is nonetheless impressive.

Several factors have fueled Cain's rise, but the most important has been his performance as a candidate. Through rally appearances, YouTube videos and the Republican debates, the Georgia businessman has endeared himself to a small cadre of very well-informed conservatives. Those performances culminated in his victory in a Florida straw poll on Sept. 24.

Polling has shown Cain winning a small but loyal following throughout the summer. As early as March, Gallup noted that although Cain's name recognition has fallen far short of the front runner candidates, those who know Cain tend to have a strongly favorable impression. As such, Cain has long ranked at or near the top of Gallup's weekly "positive intensity score" -- which measures the percentage of those with a strongly favorable opinion of a candidate minus the percentage with a strongly unfavorable opinion, among those who are familiar with the candidate.

Though Cain's name recognition has fallen short of front runner candidates, it has nonetheless grown from 21 percent on Gallup's tracking in March to 51 percent in late September. Gallup reports that his most recent "positive intensity score" of 26, which falls just below the 28 he scored twice earlier this summer, "is the highest Gallup has measured for any GOP candidate" so far this year.

The Post/ABC poll finds that Cain made a similarly positive impression on the roughly half of Republicans who say they watched the recent debates. Seventy percent say that the more they hear about Cain, the more they like him, while only 12 percent say they like him less. Cain's impression was far more positive than that made by Romney or Perry.

The no-compromise mood of the Republican party is another factor fueling Cain's rise. The Post/ABC poll found that nearly three quarters (73 percent) of Republicans prefer a candidate who they agree with on issues to a candidate who is most likely to win in November (20 percent).

That mood helps to explain why Mitt Romney, the candidate who leads in endorsements and is perceived as the most experienced and electable, has failed to gain more than a quarter of the vote in national polling on the Republican race. The Post/ABC poll finds Romney runs behind Perry (37 to 43 percent) as being "closer to you on issues." Romney's failure to win more than 25 percent of the vote, combined with Perry's decline, have helped create a vacuum that has allowed Cain to rise in polling.

Still, the relatively low level of support for the candidates who have taken turns as polling "front runners" provides an important reality check on Cain's upward trend. A double-digit gain in support is impressive, particularly when the leader wins only about a quarter of the vote, but 16 percent is a long way from the majority of Republican primary and caucus voters Cain would need to win the nomination.

Hans Noel, a professor of political science at Georgetown University who has studied past nomination battles, is highly skeptical of Cain's chances. "Cain has strong support among a faction in the party," Noel told The Huffington Post via email, "but I don't think he has support broadly. A straw poll isn't exactly meaningless, but it's just one blip."

Noel pointed out that, despite the straw poll victory and rising numbers in the Post/ABC poll, the traders on Intrade continue to give Cain just a 3.1 percent chance of being elected in 2012.

That skepticism is likely partly a reaction to the huge historical obstacle that Cain faces as a candidate with no prior elective or military experience. Only two presidents in American history have served without having held prior elective office or high military rank. And the two exceptions, Herbert Hoover and William Howard Taft, served as cabinet secretaries in prior administrations.

Republicans are certainly in a mood for change, and the election of Barack Obama in 2008 proved that a relatively short political resume was not a barrier to the country's highest elected office. But a Cain victory in 2012 would represent a leap to a far greater degree of political inexperience.

Earlier on HuffPost:

Warren Candidacy Narrows Attention Gap

2011-10-03T20:21:00Z

WASHINGTON -- A new UMass-Lowell/Boston Herald poll in Massachusetts yields a lot of good news for Democratic Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren. She holds a wide lead in the primary and runs nearly even against Republican incumbent Scott Brown. The Warren candidacy also may be contributing to another phenomenon that should give hope to Bay State Democrats: For the moment, Democrats are following the Senate campaign about as closely as Republicans are, a big difference from the national pattern.

For nearly three years, Republicans have enjoyed big leads in voter enthusiasm on various measures, something that usually signals a coming voter turnout advantage. In January 2010, for example, according to a University of New Hampshire survey, Massachusetts Republicans were more likely to express interest in the election (75 percent) than Democrats (67 percent). Republicans were even more likely to say they were "extremely interested" in the election (36 percent) than Democrats (23 percent).

In early September, a CBS News/New York Times poll found the same pattern. Republicans nationwide say they are more attentive to the 2012 campaign (77 percent are pay at least some attention) than Democrats (61 percent). A recent Gallup survey shows a similar Republican attention intensity advantage.

In Massachusetts, however, the UMass pollsters found almost no difference in attention paid to the coming 2012 Senate race. Democrats are about as likely to say they are following the Senate race (51 percent at least somewhat likely) as Republicans (52 percent).

This finding is based on just one question and may reflect nothing more than heavy initial coverage of Warren's entry into the race, which Democrats are likely watching with more interest than Republicans. Overall, the interest in the Senate election is relatively low -- only a small handful of voters in either party (15 percent overall) say they are now following the race "very closely." But raising enthusiasm among Democrats is critical for those who hope Warren can retake the Senate seat that Brown won narrowly in a January 2010 special election to fill the vacancy created by the death of Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy.

The UMass-Lowell/Herald survey is the second to test Warren's standing since she launched her campaign in early September. The survey, conducted with live interviewers and sampling registered voters over both mobile and landline phones, gives Brown the slight advantage (41 to 38 percent). A poll conducted in September by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) immediately after Warren's announcement used an automated methodology to contact likely voters and gave Warren a two-point edge over Brown (46 to 44 percent). Neither margin is large enough to be statistically significant.

The new survey also shows Warren with 36 percent in a Democratic primary contest against six other potential opponents, none of whom currently receives more than 5 percent of the vote. But nearly half of those who describe themselves as potential primary voters (44 percent) say they are either completely undecided or are hoping for another candidate to enter the race.

Warren's early primary lead is based mostly on an advantage in name recognition. Nearly two-thirds of Massachusetts adults (63 percent) say they recognize Warren's name, a far greater share than that of any of her primary opponents, whose name identification ranges from 27 to 40 percent.

Turnout patterns could be critical in the 2012 Senate race in Massachusetts given the way the current vote preference breaks down by party and how those patterns compare to support for Brown and Democrat Martha Coakley in the 2010 special election. That was a relatively close race, and much of Brown's five-point margin of victory came from disproportionately heavier turnout among voters who identified as Republican or independent rather than Democratic.

Compare the percentages for Brown and Warren to those won by Brown and Coakley in 2010 as estimated by a post-election survey conducted by the Washington Post, Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard School of Public Health.

Brown won 17 percent of Democrats in 2010, and he is winning 16 percent of Democrats against Warren. In 2010, Martha Coakley won 5 percent of Republicans. Warren is currently winning just 6 percent of Republicans. If partisans ultimately vote for their party's nominee, the totals by party will be identical, so a combination of turnout and the vote among independents will be critical.

Like Coakley did in 2010, Warren trails Brown by a large margin among independents. She remains close overall, but mostly because Massachusetts has so many more Democratic than Republican voters.

Can Warren or any of the other prospective Democratic candidates narrow Brown's margin among independents? As other results of the survey show, it will not be easy. Brown has a strong approval rating among independents (60 percent approve, 22 percent disapprove), while almost as many (56 percent) describe Brown as an independent voice for Massachusetts. Only 24 percent agree that he is "too conservative," and only 22 percent agree he has done too much to look out for "the economic interests of Wall Street financial institutions."

Still, the campaign is in its earliest stages. Few voters are paying close attention to it, and more than a third of the voters (37 percent) say they have never heard of Warren. There is still great potential for impressions and preferences to change, but Democrats can be encouraged at having energized elements of their base, at least for now.

Earlier on HuffPost:

Warren Candidacy Narrows Attention Gap

2011-10-03T20:21:00Z

Like Coakley did in 2010, Warren trails Brown by a large margin among independents. She remains close overall, but mostly because Massachusetts has so many more Democratic than Republican voters.

Earlier on HuffPost:

Obama's Negative Approval Ratings Mean What Today?

2011-09-30T19:44:00Z

WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama's job approval ratings have hit new lows over the past month, yet he continues to hold slight leads over Republican candidates in head-to-head polling. Of the two, the approval ratings are a slightly better measure of Obama's re-election prospects, signaling a very tough contest ahead. But history tells us to be wary of both as predictors of the 2012 outcome. It is still very early.

The president's approval rating has risen and fallen over the past year, with brief bumps up in January, following passage of a budget deal and the shooting of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, and again in May, following the killing of Osama bin Laden. Since the debt ceiling debacle in August, however, the public's approval of Obama has dropped to new lows. Our trend estimate chart, based on all available public polls, gives him a rating of roughly 42 percent approval to 53 percent disapproval.

Obama's net negative job rating stands in contrast to head-to-head polls showing him leading the front-running Republican candidates. For example, he runs slightly ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in seven of eight national telephone polls conducted in September. The HuffPost-Pollster trend estimate, filtered for telephone polls, gives Obama a lead of 3.7 percentage points (47.6 percent to 43.9 percent).

Obama does even better matched against Texas Gov. Rick Perry. The same eight national telephone polls conducted in September show Obama leading by margins of 5 to 11 percentage points.

The contrast between the two sets of results has some asking which is a better indicator of Obama's re-election chances, the head-to-head polling or the individual approval ratings? The answer is that approval ratings are a better indicator for now, although neither polling measure provides a reliable prediction a year or more before the election.

Political scientists Chris Wlezien and Bob Erikson have examined the issue for "The Timeline of Presidential Election Campaigns," their forthcoming book on election forecasting, which is a subject they've studied for decades. A chart from their book (reproduced below with permission) shows that the predictive power of head-to-head "horse-race" polls increases gradually over the last 300 days of the campaign. These kinds of polls are highly predictive of the outcome in the final month before the election, but at 300 days out their predictive power is virtually zero.

Election Day 2012 is still 402 days away, so as political scientist and occasional HuffPost blogger Brendan Nyhan put it a few weeks ago, "we shouldn't make too much of where Obama stands against his likely Republican opponents right now."

Further statistical analysis by Wlezien and Erikson shows that job approval ratings are slightly better predictors than horse-race polls until about 100 days before the election, but that the differences are small, and neither can predict the winner with much confidence a year or more out.

At the request of The Huffington Post, Wlezien and Erikson checked the data for presidential elections from 1948 to 2008. They found that, although job approval ratings at this point in the election cycle show some correlation with the ultimate vote for the candidate of the president's party, that correlation is slight (0.3 to 0.4) and not significantly different from zero.

What all this means is that none of these polling numbers can predict the winner of the presidency a year or more before the election. "Nothing much matters statistically at this early date, 13 or 14 months before the election," Erikson wrote via email. "Not approval, not trial heat polls, and not the economy."

The economy matters a great deal, of course, in driving Obama's current approval rating. It will also figure greatly in the choices that voters make in November 2012. "If we know that the economy will not improve even from today's low benchmark," Erikson added, "or that Obama will continue to flail, then we might start predicting a Republican win in 2012."

Obama will face a very difficult re-election campaign next year. That much is certain, but predictions of the outcome are premature. It's just too early.

Earlier on HuffPost:

GOP In Key States Sour On Perry, Warm To Romney

2011-09-27T21:33:00Z

WASHINGTON -- Politically engaged Republican activists have decisively soured on Rick Perry and warmed to Mitt Romney over the last few weeks, according to the latest HuffPost-Patch Power Outsiders survey in the early primary and caucus states. Romney has also gained a clear advantage over Perry on the critical question of electability.

We asked 160 Republican political activists, party officials and officeholders in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina how their opinions of presidential candidates Romney and Perry have changed over the last two to three weeks.

The results tell an unequivocal story: A majority (57 percent) say their impression of Perry has grown less favorable, while just 16 percent say it has become more favorable. The results are nearly reversed for Perry's rival. A majority (47 percent) say their impression of Romney has become more favorable, while only 13 percent say they think less of him.

In our survey four weeks ago, Perry had registered a strong impression. A majority (58 percent) used positive terms to describe the Texas governor, and better than three out of four rated him presidential (77 percent) and capable of beating Barack Obama (76 percent).

The next week, our survey found slightly better marks for Romney. He had modest advantages in having the makings of a good president and being electable, although Perry and Romney were nearly even in the percentage of Power Outsiders who felt strongly about their respective ability to beat Obama in 2012.

The questions on the most recent survey are not strictly comparable because they ask for direct comparisons of Romney and Perry, but the results are vastly different. When pressed to choose, the Power Outsiders give Romney a huge advantage over Perry on both electability and presidential stature. He leads by much better than 2-to-1 (63 to 24 percent) on ability to defeat Obama in the general election and by a slightly smaller margin (56 to 30 percent) as the candidate who would make the best president.

The Power Outsiders polls do not survey a cross-section of all Republican voters, but rather attempt to monitor the "invisible primary" now very much under way among influential Republican activists and political insiders nationwide (they are "outsiders" from the perspective of Washington, D.C., but are insiders within their local communities). This week, we heard from 44 Power Outsiders in Iowa, 50 in New Hampshire and 65 in South Carolina.

In their book, "The Party Decides," political scientists Marty Cohen, David Karol, Hans Noel and John Zaller argue that "party leaders, aligned groups, and activists" have been a "systematic force in presidential nominations." In particular, they find these influential party actors are "a major reason that all nominees since the 1970s have been credible and at least reasonably electable representatives of their partisan traditions."

That's why Romney's emerging advantage as an electable general election candidate poses a mortal threat to the Perry campaign. If it persists, Perry will have trouble raising money, gaining further endorsements and, ultimately, winning over rank-and-file Republicans who participate in caucuses and vote in primaries.

READ previous results from Power Outsiders polls:

The HuffPost-Patch Power Outsiders

Iowa

Robert Brownell (Polk County supervisor), Irene Chalmers-Neubauer (Republican precinct captain), Mike St. Clair (Lobbyist), Arleigh Clemens (Co-Chair Johnson County Republicans), Jeremy Davis (Councilman), Tyler DeHaan (IT Services), Debra Derksen (PR person for Johnson County GOP), Mike Elam (Organizer, Dallas County GOP), Paul Fell (Santorum supporter), Amanda Freel (State House Repub Staff), Steve Gaer (West Des Moines mayor), Natalie Ginty (Chairwoman, Iowa Federation of College Republicans), Rick Hermann (Sales Manager, WeatherTech Automotive), Libby Jacobs (former state representative), William Keettel (Former head, Johnson County Republicans), Kevin Koester (Congressman), Mary Kramer (former state senator), Marilyn Krocheski, Jon McAvoy (Head of Dallas County Republicans), Isaiah McGee (Owner, McGee strategies), Chris McLinden (Axis Human Capital, Businessman), Cynthia Michel (Precinct Captain), Mike Nolan (Republican Party noteable), Jim Sandager (West Des Moines city councilman), Rick Sanders (Republican Supervisor), Charles Schneider (West Des Moines city councilman), Chad Steenhoek (Member, Strong America Now), Wade Steenhoek (Ankeny City Council), Ronald Stenstrom (Romney Supporter), Karen Svede (Former statewide candidate), Rob Taylor (Running for Iowa House Seat), Deb Thornton (Worked in Republican administrations), Robert Wennerholm (Precinct Captain), Eric Woolson (Republican strategist), Randy Yontz (Director Leadership Institute)

New Hampshire

South Carolina

GOP In Key States Sour On Perry, Warm To Romney

2011-09-27T21:33:00Z

READ previous results from Power Outsiders polls:

The HuffPost-Patch Power Outsiders

Iowa

New Hampshire

South Carolina

Perry's Grip On Front-Runner Spot Is Soft

2011-09-23T20:45:00Z

WASHINGTON -- Front-runner status has been fleeting in the Republican presidential contest so far, and Rick Perry's current hold on first place in public opinion polls may be similarly short-lived.

Since entering the race in mid-August, the Texas governor has led Mitt Romney and the rest of the Republican field in every national poll -- 17 in all. HuffPost Pollster's trend estimate chart, which combines results from all available public polls, currently gives Perry 27 percent of the Republican primary vote to 18 percent for Romney and all other candidates in single digits.

While the most recent polls have shown Perry running consistently ahead, there are good reasons to think his lead may fade.

First, much of that support is likely quite soft. Perry is still a relatively new face. According to Gallup, his name recognition has increased from 55 percent among Republicans in early July to 76 percent as of last week. And most polls have shown Perry's support at least doubling since the summer.

Typically, voters who shift their vote to a new candidate in a primary campaign will describe their support as soft. In the Politico/George Washington University poll conducted in late August, for example, 36 percent of Republicans said Perry was their first choice for president, but on a separate question just 22 percent said they would definitely vote for Perry.

Also, as political scientist and HuffPost Pollster co-founder Charles Franklin points out, Perry's lead in the national polls has narrowed in recent weeks, from roughly 10 to roughly five percentage points, since he started participating in televised debates.

It will take very little -- a shift of roughly one Republican in twenty from Perry to Romney -- to eliminate Perry's current lead altogether.

Whatever the recent trend, keep in mind that support for Perry, which recent polls have put in a percentage range of the mid to upper 20s, is roughly the same as Rudy Giuliani's support at this point in 2007 and slightly less than Howard Dean received as a Democratic candidate just before the Iowa caucuses in 2004.

For Perry to win the Republican nomination, he will need to do more than maintain his current support. Barring a very unlikely brokered convention, he will need to win a majority of votes from Republican primary and caucus voters nationwide to gain the necessary majority of delegates.

Perry received good news on that front on Tuesday, when the latest USA Today/Gallup poll asked Republicans to choose between Perry and Romney. That survey gave Perry 49 percent of the vote to 39 percent for Romney and 11 percent undecided. Of course, Perry's support on that question is more than just soft, it is also hypothetical. Keep in mind that just 31 percent opted for Perry among the eight announced candidates, so roughly one in three who would in theory support Perry over Romney support another candidate as their first choice.

At best, Perry's support has leveled off in September, and his performance in Thursday night's Republican debate in Florida portends a likely decline, given the all-important "invisible primary" now under way among Republican party insiders, activists and donors. Political scientists who have studied past presidential nomination battles -- particularly Marty Cohen, David Karol, Hans Noel and John Zaller in their book "The Party Decides," argue that those insiders help to determine the ultimate nominee, in part because their opinions act as a cue that helps guide the choices of less attentive voters.

That's why Perry's performance in Thursday's debate is important. It was met with nearly universal criticism, including from a Frank Luntz focus group of Republicans telecast by Fox News immediately following the debate itself. The disparagement of Perry also came from strongly conservative commentators such as William Kristol, Michelle Malkin, Ann Coulter, Dan Riehl, Rich Lowry and Erick Erickson.

So looking at the most recent polls, Rick Perry remains the front-runner. But in a week or so, that snapshot of the primary may look very different.

GOP Power Outsiders: Bachmann Can't Win

2011-09-21T17:25:15Z

WASHINGTON -- Less than six weeks after winning the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa, Republican presidential candidate Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) is all but finished as a viable contender in the eyes of politically-engaged Republican activists in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. That's the message of the latest Power Outsiders poll conducted by The Huffington Post and Patch.

Nearly half of the influential local Republicans we surveyed in the early primary states report a generally negative impression of Bachmann, and more than two thirds see little or no chance that Bachmann can either beat Barack Obama or win the Republican nomination.

This week, our HuffPost-Patch Power Outsiders poll of 160 political activists, party officials and officeholders in the early primary and caucus states focuses on Bachmann. The poll does not survey all Republican voters, but rather attempts to listen in on the "invisible primary" underway among influential local activists and political insiders that has historically driven the outcome of party nomination campaigns. This week, we heard from 38 Power Outsiders in Iowa, 57 in New Hampshire and 65 in South Carolina.

As with the Republican candidates tested previously -- Rick Perry and Mitt Romney -- we first asked respondents to use one word to describe their impression of Bachmann. Unlike with the two frontrunners, nearly half the words (48 percent) to describe Bachmann were negative, including "inexperienced," "crazy," "lightweight" and "scary."

Fewer words (43 percent) were unambiguously positive, including "passionate," "energetic," "principled," "determined" and "feisty." Although we classified 8 percent of the comments as neutral, these included words like "conservative" (mentioned by 4 percent) that could have either a positive or negative connotation for the respondent.

The comparison between the one-word reaction to Bachmann and the two front-runners is stark. The influential local Republican activists we talked to were nearly twice as likely to use a negative word to describe Bachmann (48 percent) as Romney (28 percent) or Perry (24 percent) on previous surveys.

Probing deeper, the Power Outsiders do express affinity for Bachmann's issue positions. Nearly four out of five (78 percent) describe her as someone who "takes stands on issues you agree with," although less than a third (29 percent) say that phrase describes Bachmann "very well."

Respondents gave far more negative reactions to Bachmann when asked about other characteristics. Only 40 percent describe her as someone who "would make a good president," and her ratings plunge on matters of viability. Only 29 percent describe her as someone "who can beat Barack Obama in the general election," and even fewer (26 percent) say she can win the Republican nomination.

In August, the majority of Power Outsiders concluded that Sarah Palin could not win a general election, but Bachmann scored even lower than Palin on perceptions of viability and presidential readiness. Bachmann scored eight points lower on her ability to beat Obama (29 vs. 37 percent) and seven points lower on whether she would make a good president (40 vs. 47 percent).

As with a still-potential Palin candidacy, Bachmann's campaign counts on grassroots support that comes from outside the Republican establishment, including the local officeholders, party officials and political activists we surveyed. But Bachmann has already enjoyed success from the grassroots front at the Ames Straw Poll that could have boosted party activists' perceptions of her viability. The very negative reaction of these influential Republicans shows that Bachmann likely faces monumental obstacles in trying to win the Republican nomination.

The HuffPost-Patch Power Outsiders

Our surveys are not a scientific random sample of any larger population but rather an effort to listen to a wide swathe of influential, local Republican activists, party leaders and elected officials in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. All of the individuals listed below have agreed to participate in the Power Outsiders surveys, although not all responded to this week's questions. This week's interviews were conducted between Sept. 16-20, 2011.

Iowa

New Hampshire

Eric Anderson (Former State Rep/Chair Bow Board of Selectmen), Gary Azarian (State Rep.), David Bates (Rep- Windham), William Smith (Conservative Blogger), Kathy Benuck (BCTV Host/Blogger), D.J. Bettencourt (State Rep., Maj. Leader), Diane Bitter (Rye Republican activist), Travis Blais (Windham GOP Chair), Bill Boyd (Town Councilor), Bruce Breton (Selectman), Russell Bridle (Former Hampton Fire Department captain/State Rep.), Ed Brooks (Former ME selectman, town councilor), Chris Buck (Republican activist), Chris Buda (Merrimack GOP Chair), Jamie Burnett (Consultant), John Cebrowski (State Rep. - Bedford), Chris Christiansen (State Rep), Mark Cookson (Alderman-at-large), Tim Copeland (State rep.), Jim Costello (American Government teacher), Juanita Dangel (Secretary Hillsborough County GOP), Gary Daniels (State Rep), Ed Declercq (Planning Board), Jerry Delemus (Republican activist), Shari Demers (Activist), Julie DiCarlo (Small business owner), Ron DiCarlo (Small business owner), Bob Duffy (Nashua GOP City Committee), Bob Elliott (State Rep.), Gary Ellmer (Chairman, Porsmouth Republican Committee), Frank Ferraro (Exeter Selectman), Laura Foote (Activist), Mauri Foster (Retired), Sheila Francoeur (Seacoast Republican Women member), Michael Gallagher (Nashua Republican City Committee, running for Alderman), Bianca Garcia (Former Salem GOP Victory Office mgr), David Garcia (Salem Town GOP Chair), John Graham (State Rep. - Bedford), Brian Griset (Member of local political committee), Lisa Hansen (Romney supporter), Peter Hansen (State Rep), Pat Hargreaves (Selectman), Jeff Hatch (Salem Romney Town Chair), Ken Hawkins (State Rep - Bedford), Dan St. Hilaire (Executive councilor), Dick Hinch (Current State Rep), Jennifer Horn (Republican activist), David Hurst (New Hampshire Young Republicans chairman), Zac Johnson (Technical writer), Ken Jones (Member of Amherst Republicans), Gary Krupp (Member of the School Budget Committee), Michael Lambert (Resident), Steve Landry (Small business owner), Tom Linehan (GOP Activist), Eduardo Lopez-Reyes (Software engineer), Marie Lopez-Reyes (Sales), Di Lothrop (Nashua GOP City Committee), Stephen E. Ludwick (Chairman, Supervisors of the Checklist, Ward 9), Jim Luther (State Senator), John Lyons (Lawyer), Kris MacNeil (Former State Senate candidate), Joel Maiola (Former Judd Gregg Chief of Staff), Andrew Manuse (State Rep - Derry), George Markwell (School Board Member), Harry McClard (Freelance writer), Patrick McDougall (Budget Committee), Charles McMahon (Rep- Windham), Bill Modis (Vice Chair of Amherst Republicans), Maureen Mooney (Past State Rep), Keith Murphy (State Rep - Bedford), Tasha Olsen (Republican activist), Rick Paige (Loan officer), Michele Peckham (State Rep. - N. Hampton), Amy Perkins (State Rep. - Seabrook), Lawrence Perkins (State Rep. - Seabrook), Kathryn Peterson (community activist), Lenette Peterson (State Rep), Pam Price (former state rep), Lee Quandt (State rep.), Matt Quandt (Exeter Selectman/State Rep.), Tom Rath (Consultant), Fred Rice (State Rep. - Hampton), Jim Rubens (Former Republican State Sen.), Pete Silva (Rep - Nashua), Brandon Stauber (Small business owner/recent Exeter transplant), Kathy Stroud (State Rep), Chris Tremblay (Activist), Pam Tucker (Deputy House Speaker), Mark Vincent (Chair of Amherst Republicans), Jim Waddell (State Rep. - Hampton), Tom Walker (Conservative Republican), Robert Washburn (Former City Councilor), Kevin Waterhouse (Rep- Windham), Raymond White (State Sen. - Bedford), Alan Williams (North Hampton resident, former Exeter selectman), J. Christopher Williams (Pres. Nashua CC), Tony Zore (Tea Party member)

South Carolina

Check below to see previous results from Power Outsider polls:

New Poll Shows Warren Surging

2011-09-20T18:12:00Z

WASHINGTON -- Less than a week after Democrat Elizabeth Warren launched her campaign for the U.S. Senate in Massachusetts, a new automated poll shows her running neck-and-neck with incumbent Republican Scott Brown.

The new survey, conducted by the Democratic-affiliated firm Public Policy Polling (PPP), gives Warren a slight edge over Brown (46 to 44 percent) among likely voters. The two-point gap between the candidates falls well within the survey's 3.5 percent margin of error.

The results come as something of a surprise, given that two live-interviewer polls conducted in late August showed Brown comfortably ahead. A survey conducted by the MassINC Polling Group for Boston radio station WBUR found Brown ahead among likely voters by nine points (44 to 35 percent), while a Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire poll had brown leading among all adults by 19 points (48 to 29 percent).

A closer look shows most of the variation among the polls occurs in Warren's share of the vote. Brown's support on the new PPP poll is the same as that measured by the WBUR poll two weeks ago (44 percent). Brown's numbers were only slightly higher on the Boston Globe and PPP polls (48 and 47 percent, respectively), differences that could be explained by random sampling error alone.

Candidates typically gain support when they announce their candidacy, but Warren's gains in the PPP poll are quite large. The percentage of respondents able to rate Warren jumped from 38 to 60 percent since PPP last surveyed Massachusetts voters in June. Warren's favorable rating has nearly doubled, growing from 21 to 40 percent since June.

The big jump in Scott Brown's disapproval rating on PPP's tracking -- up from 36 to 46 percent since June -- may be more surprising. The other recent polls probed Brown's personal favorability, rather than his job performance. Their favorability questions also explicitly offered respondents the option to say they "don't know enough" about Brown to rate him. As summarized in the table below, both surveys found slightly higher positives and much lower negatives. Brown's unfavorable ratings were just 25 and 26 percent, respectively, on the recent WBUR and Boston Globe polls.

While Warren's announcement alone is unlikely to have increased Brown's negatives, the incumbent may well be suffering from the recently declining public perceptions of Congress as a whole. Recent surveys have shown sharp declines in approval for both Republicans and Democrats in Congress and results that match all-time lows for the Congress as a whole.

Some survey researchers worry that automated surveys, with their typically lower response rates, may exaggerate support for candidates with more energized supporters. But automated polls, including one from PPP, were among the first to detect the surge toward Scott Brown and his candidacy for Senate in early January 2010. And PPP's final survey in that race correctly predicted Brown's ultimate five-point margin of victory.

The timing of the new survey may be a more valid concern. PPP began interviewing just two days after Warren announced her candidacy. Declarations of candidacy typically generate a momentary wave of favorable news coverage. That combination may have produced gains for Warren that will not persist. It will take more surveys in the coming months to confirm whether the Brown-Warren race will remain as competitive at this latest PPP survey suggests.

New Poll Shows Warren Surging

2011-09-20T18:12:00Z

GOP Power Outsiders: Romney Is Presidential, Can Win

2011-09-14T16:01:00Z

WASHINGTON -- Rick Perry may have impressed politically engaged Republican activists in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, but Mitt Romney impresses them even more. Romney is someone with "presidential" stature who can win the general election -- that's the message of the latest Power Outsiders poll conducted by The Huffington Post and Patch.

This week, our HuffPost-Patch Power Outsiders poll of 159 political activists, party officials and officeholders in the early primary and caucus states focuses on former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. The poll does not survey all Republican voters, but rather attempts to listen in on the "invisible primary" underway among influential local activists and political insiders that has historically driven the outcome of party nomination campaigns. This week, we heard from 34 Power Outsiders in Iowa, 58 in New Hampshire and 67 in South Carolina.

We first asked respondents to use one word to describe their impression of Romney. The majority of answers (59 percent) were positive. The most frequently used positive words, as presented in the word cloud below, were "presidential," "experienced," "polished," "competent" and "smooth."

More than a quarter of the words used to describe Romney (28 percent) were unambiguously negative. The most frequently used negative words were "RINO" (an acronym for the phrase "Republican in name only"), "flip-flopper," "plastic" and "slick."

The breakdown of positive and negative judgments of Romney looks roughly comparable to what we found last week when our survey focused on Texas Governor Rick Perry. The percentage of positive words used to describe Perry was similar (58 percent), but the share of negative words was slightly smaller for Perry (24 percent) than for Romney (28 percent).

But beware making too much of these comparisons; our coding may have missed hidden meaning in ambiguous words we classified as "neutral" that may have had either a positive or negative connotation for the respondent. These include words like "businessman" for Romney and "Texan" for Perry.

More specific probes reveal an even more favorable reaction to Romney. More than four out of five respondents describe Romney as someone who "takes stands on issues you agree with" (80 percent). Even more say he "would make a good president" (86 percent)" and "can beat Barack Obama in the general election" (89 percent).

We can add greater context by comparing these results to the reactions to Rick Perry we gathered last week. Romney gets a higher positive rating than Perry on all three questions, but especially on electability (89 percent for Romney versus 76 percent for Perry).

Perhaps most telling are the differences in intensity of opinion. When it comes to taking stands on issues they agree with, more of these influential Republicans feel strongly about applying that label to Perry (35 percent) than Romney (27 percent). On the question of who would make a good president, however, more feel strongly about applying that label to Romney (42 percent) than to Perry (32 percent). The comparison is much closer on the electability question -- 49 percent feel strongly that Romney can beat Obama, 47 percent feel strongly that way about Perry.

The difficult choice facing these influential Republicans comes into sharper focus when we look at the differences among individual respondents interviewed both weeks (of the 159 we spoke with this week, 125 were interviewed last week as well). Most have positive impressions of both Romney and Perry. On the one-word description, for example, 37 percent use unambiguously positive words to describe both Romney and Perry, 27 percent describe Romney positively but Perry negatively, 23 percent describe Perry positively but Romney negatively, and the rest are either negative (9 percent) or neutral (4 percent) about both.

Romney has a slightly bigger advantage on electability, but most of these locally influential Republicans still see both candidates as viable choices. Nearly half (45 percent) of those we interviewed for both surveys rate Romney and Perry exactly the same in terms of their ability to beat Obama, and most of these (42 percent of the total) think either candidate can beat Obama. Slightly more rate Romney more positively than Perry on electability (34 percent) than rate Perry more positively than Romney (21 percent). Most of that difference, however, is accounted for by those who feel "strongly" that Romney can beat Obama, but are only "somewhat" convinced that Perry can do the same.

Our surveys of local Republican activists in the early primary and caucus states yield snapshots of two candidates who have made positive impressions. Mitt Romney is widely seen as prepared and "presidential," while many conservatives give Perry the edge on issues they care about. Most see both as viable candidates for the general election, though as of the last two weeks, Romney has a slight edge on electability.

The HuffPost-Patch Power Outsiders

Our surveys are not a scientific random sample of any larger population but rather an effort listen to a wide swathe of influential, local Republican activists, party leaders and elected officials in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. All of the individuals listed below have agreed to participate in the Power Outsiders surveys, although not all responded to this week's questions. This week's interviews were conducted between Sept. 9-13, 2011.

Iowa

Skye Alison (Insurance Sales), Cory Adams (Story County GOP chair), Leah Adams (Co-Chair, Johnson County Republican Women), Chad Airhart (Dallas Co. recorder), Roger Anderson (Member, Johnson County GOP Executive Committee), Shane Blanchard (Waukee City Council), Carmine Boal (Former Congresswoman, now works for governor), Steve Boal (CFO, Accu-Mold), Irene Chalmers-Neubauer (Republican precinct captain), Mike St. Clair (Lobbyist), Arleigh Clemens (Co-Chair Johnson County Republicans), Jeremy Davis (Councilman), Tyler DeHaan (IT Services), Debra Derksen (PR person for Johnson County GOP), Mike Elam (Organizer, Dallas County GOP), Paul Fell (Santorum supporter), Amanda Freel (State House Repub Staff), Natalie Ginty (Chairwoman, Iowa Federation of College Republicans), Rick Hermann (Sales Manager, WeatherTech Automotive), William Keettel (Former head, Johnson County Republicans), Kevin Koester (Congressman), Marilyn Krocheski, Jon McAvoy (Head of Dallas County Republicans), Isaiah McGee (Owner, McGee strategies), Chris McLinden (Axis Human Capital, Businessman), Cynthia Michel (Precinct Captain), Mike Nolan (Republican Party noteable), Rick Sanders (Republican Supervisor), Chad Steenhoek (Member, Strong America Now), Wade Steenhoek (Ankeny City Council), Ronald Stenstrom (Romney Supporter), Karen Svede (Former statewide candidate), Rob Taylor (Running for Iowa House Seat), Mike Thayer (Editor/Publisher Coralville Courier), Deb Thornton (Worked in Republican administrations), Robert Wennerholm (Precinct Captain), Randy Yontz (Director Leadership Institute)

New Hampshire

Eric Anderson (Former State Rep/Chair Bow Board of Selectmen), Gary Azarian (State Rep.), David Bates (Rep- Windham), Kathy Benuck (BCTV Host/Blogger), D.J. Bettencourt (State Rep., Maj. Leader), Diane Bitter (Rye Republican activist), Bill Boyd (Town Councilor), Russell Bridle (Former Hampton Fire Department captain/State Rep.), Ed Brooks (Former ME selectman, town councilor), Chris Buck (Republican activist), Chris Buda (Merrimack GOP Chair), Jamie Burnett (Consultant), John Cebrowski (State Rep. - Bedford), Chris Christiansen (State Rep), Mark Cookson (Alderman-at-large), Tim Copeland (State rep.), Jim Costello (American Government teacher), Juanita Dangel (Secretary Hillsborough County GOP), Gary Daniels (State Rep), Ed Declercq (Planning Board), Jerry Delemus (Republican activist), Shari Demers (Activist), Julie DiCarlo (Small business owner), Ron DiCarlo (Small business owner), Bob Duffy (Nashua GOP City Committee), Bob Elliott (State Rep.), Gary Ellmer (Chairman, Porsmouth Republican Committee), Frank Ferraro (Exeter Selectman), Laura Foote (Activist), Mauri Foster (Retired), Sheila Francoeur (Seacoast Republican Women member), Michael Gallagher (Nashua Republican City Committee, running for Alderman), Bianca Garcia (Former Salem GOP Victory Office mgr), David Garcia (Salem Town GOP Chair), John Graham (State Rep. - Bedford), Brian Griset (Member of local political committee), Lisa Hansen (Romney supporter), Peter Hansen (State Rep), Pat Hargreaves (Selectman), Jeff Hatch (Salem Romney Town Chair), Ken Hawkins (State Rep - Bedford), Dan St. Hilaire (Executive councilor), Dick Hinch (Current State Rep), Jennifer Horn (Republican activist), David Hurst (New Hampshire Young Republicans chairman), Zac Johnson (Technical writer), Ken Jones (Member of Amherst Republicans), Gary Krupp (Member of the School Budget Committee), Michael Lambert (Resident), Steve Landry (Small business owner), Tom Linehan (GOP Activist), Eduardo Lopez-Reyes (Software engineer), Marie Lopez-Reyes (Sales), Di Lothrop (Nashua GOP City Committee), Stephen E. Ludwick (Chairman, Supervisors of the Checklist, Ward 9), Jim Luther (State Senator), John Lyons (Lawyer), Kris MacNeil (Former State Senate candidate), Joel Maiola (Former Judd Gregg Chief of Staff), Andrew Manuse (State Rep - Derry), George Markwell (School Board Member), Harry McClard (Freelance writer), Patrick McDougall (Budget Committee), Charles McMahon (Rep- Windham), Bill Modis (Vice Chair of Amherst Republicans), Maureen Mooney (Past State Rep), Keith Murphy (State Rep - Bedford), Tasha Olsen (Republican activist), Rick Paige (Loan officer), Michele Peckham (State Rep. - N. Hampton), Amy Perkins (State Rep. - Seabrook), Lawrence Perkins (State Rep. - Seabrook), Kathryn Peterson (community activist), Lenette Peterson (State Rep), Pam Price (former state rep), Lee Quandt (State rep.), Matt Quandt (Exeter Selectman/State Rep.), Tom Rath (Consultant), Fred Rice (State Rep. - Hampton), Jim Rubens (Former Republican State Sen.), Pete Silva (Rep - Nashua), William Smith (Conservative Blogger), Brandon Stauber (Small business owner/recent Exeter transplant), Sen. Nancy Stiles (State Senator - Hampton), Kathy Stroud (State Rep), Chris Tremblay (Activist), Pam Tucker (Deputy House Speaker), Mark Vincent (Chair of Amherst Republicans), Jim Waddell (State Rep. - Hampton), Tom Walker (Conservative Republican), Robert Washburn (Former City Councilor), Kevin Waterhouse (Rep- Windham), Raymond White (State Sen. - Bedford), J. Christopher Williams (Pres. Nashua CC), Tony Zore (Tea Party member)

South Carolina

Aubry Alexander (Charleston City Council - District 9), Thomas Alexander (State Senator), Dean Allen (Tea Party Activist), Charm Altman (President Sea Island Republican Women), Patrick L. Arnold (Campaign and fundraising consultant), Todd Atwater (S.C. Rep. Dist. 87), Rep. Nathan Ballentine (SC House Dist. 71), Bob Barnwell (Richland Co. GOP Spring Valley), Joseph Bates, Jr. (Committeeman/ Richland Co. GOP Dutch Fork ), Eric Bedingfield (State Rep/Congressional Staffer), Lin Bennett (Chair, Charleston County GOP), Rich Bolen (Chair, Lexington County GOP), Andrew Boucher (Business consultant and political advisor), Phillip Bowers (Chairman, Pickens County Republican Party), Dan Bracken (President/ The Auction Co. & Real Estate Inc.), Edward Britt (Engineer), Joe Bustos (Former town councilman), Jay Byars (Dorchester County councilman), "Bob Call (Berkeley County Councilman), "Tim Callanan (Berkeley County GOP Chairman), Mike Campbell (Son of former Gov. Carroll Campbell; co-chairman of Huntsman's S.C. effort), Ed Carter (Small business owner), M. Todd Cullum (Lexington County Council member), Rep. Joe Daning (Statehouse rep.), Smokey Davis (Lexington County Council member), Carroll S. Duncan (Dorchester GOP Chair), Dana Eiser (Lowcountry 9.12 president), Linda Eiser (9/12 conservative), Linda Estep (wife of Pastor at First Baptist Church of Columbia), Chip Felkel (Political Consultant), "Will Folks (Editor, fitsnews.com; spokesman for former Gov. Mark Sanford), "Leland Glen (Author), Chris Godbey (Political Consultant), Susan Grady (Republican activist), Randy Halfacre (Mayor of Lexington), Dan Hamilton (State Representative), Carla Hardee (President, Dutch Fork Chapter of the S.C. Federation of Republican Women), Larry Hargett (Dorchester County Council chairman), Val Hutchinson (Richland County Council), Johnny Jeffcoat (Town of Lexington Economic and Community Catalyst; Lexington County Council member), Jim Jerow (Georgetown GOP Chair), Debbie Jones (9.12 Board Member), Joanne Jones (Republican activist), Grayson Kelly (Fundraiser), James Kinard (Banker, Chair, Lexington County Council), Todd Kincannon (Lawyer/former executive director of SC Republican Party), Bob Kouvolo (President/ MaxPt), Mickey Lindler (Chairwoman for Republicans of Lexington and Richland Counties), Chris Mann (City Councilman), Karen Martin (Organizer/Spartanburg Tea Party), Larry Martin (State Senator), Taft Matney (Conservative Political Consultant), James Metts (Lexington County Sheriff), Matt Moore (Executive Director for SC GOP), Susan Morris (Nonprofit executive director), Mike Murphee (Charleston Tea Party chairman), Brent Nelsen (Professor of Political Science/former candidate for Supt. of Education), Don Nye (Bank employee), Allen Olson (Chairman / Columbia TEA Party), Randy Page (President,South Carolinians for Responsible Government), Gregory Pearce (Richland Co. Councilman), Kathy Perry (Charleston County Republican Women), Adam Piper (SC GOP 3rd Vice Chairman & political director for Huntsman campaign), Zach Pippin (GOP Media Consultant), Tony Pope (Insurance agent), Barbara Pulicicchio (Political activist), Rick Quinn (S.C. Rep. Dist. 69), Dennis Raines (Mayoral Candidate), Jeff Reuer (Vice Chair Goose Creek 9-12), DeLinda Ridings (SC GOP State Secretary / Huntsman campaign), Robby Robbins (Lawyer), Emily Rudolph (Sea Island Republican Women), LaDonna Ryggs (Spartanburg GOP Chair), "Michael Sally (Hanahan City Councilman), "Dennis Saylor (Chair, Aiken GOP), Bill Severns (Rep. for Beaufort Republican Men), Katrina Shealy (Candidate for SC Senate from Lexington), Lanneau Siegling (State Executive Committeeman), Billy Simons (Conservative activist), Garry Smith (State Rep), Bill Banning, Sr. (Vice-chair, Lexington County Council), John Steinberger (Fair Tax activist), Mary Ann Taylor (Charleston County Republican Women/Charleston County School Board), MacLain R. "Mac" Toole (S.C. Rep., Dist. 88), Frank Townsend (Lexington County Council member), September Wellborn (State GOP Delegate), Knox White (Mayor of Greenville), Jennifer Willis (County Councilwoman/ V.P. One Tree Hill), Henry Wilson (2011 delegate, S.C. Republican Convention), James David Woodard (Professor of Political Science, Clemson University), Cheryl Woods-Flowers (Former mayor, Republican official)

Perry Wins On Electability, But Do Voters Care?

2011-09-12T21:36:00Z

WASHINGTON -- Two new national polls show that Republicans give Texas Gov. Rick Perry the best chance of beating President Barack Obama in 2012, even better than that of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. But how important is electability to rank-and-file Republican voters? Although much scholarship shows that it matters a great deal to party insiders, its importance to ordinary voters is open to debate.

In "The Party Decides," a much acclaimed book on presidential nominations, four prominent political scientists argue that the most critical phase of the nomination process is the "invisible primary ... a long-running national conversation" among a party's leaders and activists "about who can best unite the party and win the next presidential election."

If that conversation were currently dominated by the views of Republican political elites, Perry would be in considerable trouble. A recent National Journal Political Insiders poll of 97 prominent Republican political operatives, strategists, campaign consultants and lobbyists found 69 percent of them choosing Romney over Perry as the candidate with the best chance of beating President Obama in 2012. Only 31 percent of the Republican insiders considered Perry more electable than Romney.

However, two recent surveys of the Republican rank and file found just the opposite. The most recent, conducted over the weekend by CNN and ORC International, found that electability is Perry's "greatest strength." The survey showed Perry leading with 30 percent, well ahead of Romney (18 percent) and the rest of the Republican field. When asked which candidate has the best chance of beating Obama in 2012, an even larger number selected Perry (42 percent).

Last week's Washington Post/ABC News poll found a similar result. Although Perry led the field of Republican candidates with 27 percent, he scored even higher (30 percent) as the candidate with the best chance of beating Obama.

Similarly, last week's HuffPost-Patch GOP Power Outsiders poll, an informal survey of 159 local political activists, party officials and officeholders in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, praised Perry's electability. Three out of four (76 percent) described Perry as able to beat Obama, including nearly half (47 percent) who said that description fit Perry "very well."

Why the contradiction between the GOP elite in Washington and more grassroots Republicans about Perry's potential strength in the general election?

One obvious explanation is that national party officials and political operatives tend to think about candidates and the notion of electability differently than rank-and-file voters do. Political professionals typically know the candidates, their strengths and weaknesses and their positions on issues in great detail. Ordinary voters are apt to judge political viability more generally and based on far less information.

As The Huffington Post's Jon Ward reports, the Romney campaign is not yet pitching its electability message to average voters: "They are talking to political and Republican elites ... donors ... [and] Republican governors, who want to have a Republican nominee that maximizes the ability of candidates in their state to win."

Perry's perceived viability among ordinary Republicans may simply reflect news reports showing him doing well in the "horse race" of politics in recent weeks. The Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism found Perry to be the "dominant newsmaker" in mid-August, the subject of 55 percent of all election stories studied, compared to just 6 percent for Romney. And more than a dozen national media polls conducted since mid-August have shown Perry surging ahead.

So Perry's perceived electability advantage among rank-and-file Republicans may be just "bubble support," as political scientist and blogger Jonathan Bernstein put it. "Several months of campaigning," Bernstein added, "including millions of dollars of paid media (certainly going to happen) and, perhaps, strong messaging from conservative opinion leaders" may change those perceptions.

But does electability really matter to ordinary voters? At a reporters breakfast in November 2010, Republican pollster Bill McInturff argued that it does not. "Republican primary voters," he said, "are not motivated by electability. They are motivated by who agrees with me and who do I want to be president."

At first glance, the CNN survey results appear to contradict McInturff: Three out of four Republicans (75 percent) told the pollsters they prefer to nominate a candidate who "can beat Barack Obama but does not agree with you on every issue," while just 24 percent prefer a nominee who "agrees with you on every issue that matters to you." And although 42 percent of Republicans gave Perry the best chance of beating Obama, only 26 percent said Perry is the candidate most likely to "agree with you on the issues that matter most."

However, proximity on issue positions is just one way to decide which candidate to vote for. There are also questions of leadership and past performance. And Perry scores much higher than other Republicans on being the strongest leader (36 percent) and being most likely to get the economy moving (35 percent).

So rank-and-file Republicans' positive take on Perry's electability may be more than a bubble. But either way, holding onto the voters' support will require keeping up perceptions that he's a strong leader who can turn the economy around.

Republican Voters Support Social Security, But Question Future Benefits

2011-09-09T12:00:20Z

WASHINGTON -- A skirmish over Social Security in Wednesday night's Republican presidential debate helps illustrate two conflicting views of the 70-year-old program that cut across party lines. Although the program is hugely popular among both Republicans and Democrats, voters in both parties also have grave doubts about its future financial solvency, according to polls. And Republicans divide almost evenly about whether cuts to Social Security benefits may be necessary to reduce the federal deficit.

The dust-up in Wednesday night's debate centered on Texas Gov. Rick Perry's comment in his book, "Fed Up!" that Social Security "violently tossed aside any respect for state's rights." When asked to explain his view that Social Security was wrong from the beginning, Perry avoided a direct answer, saying instead that he does not intend to "go back and change 70 years of what's been going on."

Rather, Perry said he prefers to "transition the program" for younger Americans. He restated a claim that Social Security is a "Ponzi scheme," adding that it is a "monstrous lie" to tell 25 to 30-year-olds that they are "paying into a program that's going to be there" when they reach retirement age.

While conceding that "the funding program of Social Security is not working," former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney countered by returning to Perry's comments in "Fed Up!" "You say that by any measure, Social Security is a failure," Romney said. "Our nominee has to be someone who isn't committed to abolishing Social Security, but who is committed to saving Social Security."

The candidate's arguments play to two different aspects of public opinion on Social Security among both Republicans and voters across party lines. In portraying Perry as someone who sees Social Security as a failure, Romney speaks to the overwhelming majority of Republicans who see the program as a success. As the Pew Research Center confirmed in a national survey in June, 87 percent of Republicans say that Social Security has been good for the country. As the table below shows, Republicans are only slightly more negative about Social Security than Democrats.

Perry prefers an argument about how Social Security is funded and, more specifically, whether the program amounts to a false promise to younger Americans. On that argument, he too will find sympathy from most Republicans and from most voters generally. The same Pew Research survey found that only 18 percent of Republicans think the program is in excellent or good financial condition. Similarly, a CNN/ORC International poll conducted over the summer found that just 28 percent of Republicans believe Social Security will last another 70 years.

More to the point, the CNN/ORC survey found that just 39 percent of those currently employed (and just 32 percent of employed Republicans) believe that the Social Security system will be able to pay a benefit when they retire; 60 percent believe it will not. Among those 50 years old or younger, 70 percent believe they will receive no benefit when they retire.

This skepticism is not new. A series of surveys conducted by CBS News and The New York Times found similar results in 2005. In June of that year, 70 percent of those younger than 45 felt that the program would not have the money to pay benefits when they retire.

The argument between Perry and Romney does not yet center on policy specifics, since neither candidate has released a detailed plan for how they would deal with Social Security, although both support unspecified "reforms." As The Huffington Post's Sam Stein reported, Romney used similarly inflammatory rhetoric to discuss Social Security in his 1982 book, "No Apology."

Nevertheless, the current Romney-Perry skirmish on Social Security plays in some sense to their respective bases within the Republican party. In June, for example, the Pew Research Center found Republicans split almost evenly on whether the government should reduce the deficit or maintain retirement benefits. Slightly fewer Republicans (44 percent) said they considered it more important to take "steps to reduce the budget deficit" than to keep "Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are" (47 percent).

Mirroring the Perry-Romney debate, however, those Republicans who agree with the Tea Party were more likely to favor budget reduction (by a 57 to 35 percent margin), while more moderate Republicans favored keeping benefits as they are (by a 56 to 36 percent margin).

For now, the Romney campaign's offensive on Social Security may be mostly an electability argument aimed at party insiders. "No federal candidate has ever won on the Perry program to kill Social Security," a Romney adviser told Politico Wednesday night. Ultimately, Perry's enthusiastic use of a provocative term like "Ponzi scheme" to describe an enormously popular program may be as important as the policy specifics. Should the issue turn to a battle of messages among the Republican rank and file, however, the outcome will be hard to predict.

Republican Voters Support Social Security, But Question Future Benefits

2011-09-09T12:00:20Z