Off The Bus - Iowa on HuffingtonPost.com

Paul Szep: The Daily Szep: Begging in New Hampshire

2008-01-08T00:28:20Z

Paul Szep http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-szep/

See more of Paul Szep's cartoons on the Huffington Post here.

Trey Ellis: You've Gotta Fight for Your Right to the Democratic Party

2008-01-07T17:27:47Z

If you care about rescuing this nation from the short-sighted greed and dangerous arrogance with which the Bush administration has poisoned this country, then you can only rejoice that the Democrats are fielding three such capable candidates.

Then why am I so worried?

Ever since the big three Democratic contenders have started slashing at each other my joy at seeing one of them become president of the United States has waned a bit. The vilification of Hillary Clinton by Obama and Edwards puzzles me. The right-wing attack machine has been rabidly going after both Clintons since the day her husband took office and now to see so many of her own party parrot their talking points is just plain loony.

Then to see her respond with her own freakish attacks on, for example, Obama's abortion rights record, just makes me want to throw up.

In the words of Rodney King, "Can we all just get along?"

If any of you are at all sincere about meaningful change in Washington, let that change begin with how you campaign. To that end, each of you needs to learn from the others.

Obama: I have always loved your message of thinking beyond left and right, red state and blue state and that hopeful message is why you're riding such a wave of popularity right now. The rank-and-file Republicans in the wild, however, are different from the ones in caged in Washington. Hillary's husband was the most centrist Democrat we've had in years. He bent over backwards to reach across the aisle, even appointed a Republican as his Secretary of Defense. And his reward? They unleashed a vicious, relentless attack machine that is still going after him and his wife to this day.

And just look to more recent history. The Republicans got their asses handed to them in the last midterms. You'd think they might be more amenable to compromise. Instead, in the Senate that you have worked in during the last year they have been more obstreperous than ever, blocking even the most gradual change on anything whatsoever.

You might be creaming her in these early primaries but you can learn something from Hillary since she has actually looked into the belly of the beast of entrenched corporate interests and learned the hard way the reach of their grasp. Look at those smiling pictures of Bill and Hillary in those first hundred days. She had the audacity of hope then too. Her healthcare plan back in 1993 was more revolutionary for its time than anything in the platforms of any candidate running today.

Right now you're the odds-on favorite to be the next president of the United States. Karl Rove, David Brooks and the neocons have championed your cause because they think they can either paint you as a Mocha McGovern in the run-up to November or a Java Jimmy Carter after. To either win the presidency or succeed once in office you're going to have to borrow some of Hillary's expertise in palace intrigue and realpolitik and some of Edwards's anger.

Hillary: You're the opposite of George Bush. He is the smiling incompetent, you're the stone-faced hyper-competent. A good friend of mine who worked for you and your family calls you Tracy Flick, Reese Witherspoon's brittle, brown-nosing character running for school president in the movie Election. It's probably already too late but you need to become a real person again. There is some crazy realty show coming on where this guy tries to deprogram beauty queens and turn them back into real women who no longer wave with just an upright, cupped hand. You need someone like him to get you dressed down, hair loose and let us know from the heart what you dream about for the future of this nation. Listen to Obama's magnificent Iowa victory speech. Don't talk to us about fear of the unknown, talk to us about the magnificent new American century that you would like to share with us.

Edwards: I love your eagerness to take it to the man and frankly I've always thought that a charismatic white male Southern populist could cakewalk into the White House. Your problem, as I see it, is that like Obama you don't tell us your mechanism for affecting the change we all desire. You're running for president not Tsar. Jimmy Carter was another southern outsider elected with a mountain of promise behind him. The system that he and that you correctly deride for being corrupt and anti-American doesn't just roll over and die the moment after you're sworn in. That system is anything but stupid, realizes that there is only a very slim chance that one of the gang that can't shoot straight on the Republican side will be our next POTUS so are already planning on how to subvert all or your noble goals. Unless you're elected with 80% of the electorate, what's your plan for battling them?

Ian Welsh: You Get the Politicians You Deserve

2008-01-07T16:35:56Z

So, Edwards fails to get the win in Iowa and Obama or Clinton are much more likely to be the nominee than if Edwards had won. Then they'll either be the president or lose to the Republican. (Don't think it can't happen.)

I'm reminded of the saying that you get the politicians you deserve, which as a friend pointed out to me, is an American saying. (Europeans know that you often don't.)

But in this case it's true. The unions were too chickenshit to go whole hog for Edwards, even though he was by far and away the most pro-union of the three. Hilary Clinton had Mark Penn, union buster, as her chief. Obama mouths platitudes, but attacked unions for spending money on the election, as if they shouldn't have a say, and as if they are the problem in the US.

And it's pretty clear that Edwards was close enough that a full court union push probably would have shoved him over the top and let him take Iowa and then have a good shot at the whole enchilada.

Then there's the blogosphere. Salon's Joan Walsh said how proud she was that so many major bloggers didn't endorse a candidate this time around. Personally that sickens me. That sort of false objectivity, this refusal to have the courage of one's convictions, is what the blogosphere started off railing against. Now we do it, and in some cases it is done to maintain "access" just like the journalists we thought we were better than.

At the end of the day John Edwards couldn't seal the deal in Iowa. But at the end of the day candidates aren't just individuals and which candidates win and lose says less about the individual than about everyone else.

John Edwards didn't let anyone down this time. But a lot of people who were John Edwards natural allies let him down.

I find this particularly ironic in the case of unions, many of whom went for Clinton, thinking she was a shoe-in and by splitting their support managed to neither get in the machine candidate nor the candidate who actually believed in their cause. If Obama takes it all, unions will wind up with a man who doesn't owe them squat. They're going to be down on their knees for the rest of 2008 trying to make it up and while Obama will make nice, they won't find out if it's really taken till it's too late. After all, it's not like he needed their support, and it's not like they have any choice but to get behind him in a general.

Good job. Real good job. It's strategic decisions like this that have made the American labor movement what it is today.

In 2004 Democrats chose Kerry over 3 better men: Clark, Edwards and Dean. Then they lost the election. Let's see how it plays out in 2008

Michael Shaw: Pics From N.H. You Won't Find In The MSM: #5 - The Chelsea Factor

2008-01-07T11:34:10Z

This is the fifth installment in a 72-hour series of visual dispatches from independent photojournalist Alan Chin on the ground in New Hampshire.

Installment #5: The Chelsea Factor (Wednesday A.M. 7/9/08)

(Click any image to expand)

What I was most interested in thinking out, given Alan's set of Clinton photos, was what happened between last Saturday, after the Clinton campaign had been battered in Iowa, and this Monday, the day before Hillary's poll-trashing New Hampshire rise from the ashes.

Based on the material on hand (which included no emotional roundtable discussions nor any mid-debate depiction of hurt feelings), I would have to say that the difference -- over and between those two days -- was primarily familial.

In addition to the sign-toting women at Saturday's sparsely attended campaign rally at the Nashua airport, Bill Clinton was a primary presence. (I elaborated on the problematic nature of this -- just like much of the media did -- way back on Friday at BAGnewsNotes.) Peculiarly, Alan's sequence catches Bubba in the pose of a field general, as if reprising his charge to the bridge to the 21st Century.

In comparison, Alan's best image from election eve day was the shot above from a rally for canvassers in a Manchester parking lot. (Bill, by the way, was not in attendance.)

When you include the woman pushing out the platform, the image provides the sense that the campaign is now totally infused with girl power. More significantly though, we see Chelsea -- like a beacon -- visually aligned with that platform.

If Alan Chin, rather than moving on to the Edwards campaign, had continued to follow Clinton that day, I'm convinced we would have an elegant and larger body of evidence that Chelsea, rather than Bill, had become the campaign's new inspiration (not to mention, its co-star).

Falling back on the visual media, however, you might check out this image which I set aside on Saturday, thinking it not only captured a powerful solidarity between mother and daughter, but between mother, daughter and the spirited representative of a key demographic.

Skipping to first thing Monday morning, look at this shot from a NYT Hillary Road Show (taking note of the announcement-like caption). Also, consider the expansive gesture in this Reuters photo from the same event Alan photographed above; and also this shot after the event which the NYT chose for its "Final Push" slide show.

The defining image, however, has got to be this one from Monday evening's final campaign event, revealing a tearful candidate simultaneously celebrating her own voice and the family circle's new secret weapon.

Last Up: Election Night At Obama Central

((All images Â© Alan Chin. Concord, New Hampshire. January 5, 2007 Used by permission. linked images: Hillary/Chelsea canvassing: Brian Snyder/Reuters. Manchester, New Hampshire January 6,2008. Hillary/Chelsea with college student: Elise Amendola/A.P. Clinton campaign bus. Durham, N.H., January 5, 2008.)

*** ** ***

For the full, expanded version of this dispatch, plus the previous five (Huckabee Rockin' ; Rudy and the Working Class; McCain/Lieberman '08; Mill Worker Mission - part 1 and part 2),
see:

Our Man In New Hampshire
(via BAGnewsNotes)

(...and stay tuned for one more)

Installment #4: Mill Worker Mission (Tuesday P.M. 7/8/08)

(Click photos for full size)

These last few Edwards appearances have been extremely intense. If anything, it seems that most of the attendees are already solidly in his camp and mostly deriving sustenance from the gathering.

Alan reports that Edwards has the largest traveling party of all the candidates. It includes his father and mother (the third shot above) as well as the family of Nataline Sarkisyan, the woman who died because her insurance company wouldn't approve a liver transplant. Perhaps not surprisingly, giving the driving sense of purpose, Edwards was the only candidate to actually hold an appearance on the afternoon of the vote.

Next Up: Hillary

*** ** ***
Installment #3: BarackOMania (Tueday A.M. 7/8/08)
(Click photos for full size)

It seems the tone in the country is way too jaded and polarized to absorb the kind of passion and inspiration being generated right now by this politician. If the pictures seem corny, even exceedingly so, however, that's not at all what it's like.

For young people, the campaign seems to be generating an untold number of future "I remember when" moments.

*** ** ***

Installment #2: McCain/Lieberman '08 (Monday P.M. 7/7/08)

These shots were taken on Friday at the Derry Town Hall. It was the event in which McCain responded to a question about the Iraq occupation by warning of a 100 year commitment.

(Click the photo for full size)

Although the press seemed to ignore it, the McCain event in Derry was as much a joint appearance as an individual one. Shades of a ticket, Chin notes that Lieberman held the floor almost as long as McCain. Alan adds: "Lieberman stands at McCain's side like some ghost of electoral perversity. Imagine the thought of the vice presidential loser of one political party repeating the feat for the other party?

White waiting for McCain/Lieberman to take the stage, we see a former POW highlighted in the foreground. Although McCain was against Iraq before he was for it, this kind of flip-flopping is largely ignored by the press as McCain touts his war experience and milks "The Surge."

*** ** ***

Installment #1: Rudy Does Segway (Or: Screw The Working Class) (Monday A.M. 7/7/08)

Above, I offer you a sampling of the visual media coverage of Rudy at the Segway plant in Bedford, New Hampshire on Friday. You see Rudy standing on the scooter (not riding it, mind you, lest he fall off and join the visual ranks of Dukakis in the tank, or, perhaps, Kerry windsurfing). His grand entry suggests support from the employees, although the guy clapping is actually the inventor. The shots in the factory make Rudy out as an industrial and technologically-savvy leader.

So, what Chin does is turn the lens around, offering us the stark reaction of the rank-and-file.

About This Series:

Photojournalist Alan Chin is currently up in New Hampshire breaking all the rules. He is not there to sensationalize; he is not concerned with the candidate's carefully constructed story lines (with a mind to frame the message or tear it down); he is not interested in getting the best vantage point or sight line; he doesn't care about the money shot. What he is interested in is the campaign as an American phenomenon, and how people -- from the candidates, the handlers, the volunteers, the supporters, and everyone caught in between -- look, feel and act outside of all those carefully-edited images of what a campaign is supposed to look like.

Having covered Kosovo, freelanced for the New York Times in Iraq, and having produced some of the most powerful images of the Hurricane Katrina disaster, Alan Chin is supplying us pictures completely bypassing the media filter.

Over the 48 - 72 hours from Monday through Wednesday, I will be updating this post twice a day with selected images as I receive them from Alan. (You will know the post is updated because the title will have been revised.) As well, you can find a full and expanded group of Alan's dispatches at Our Man In New Hampshire via BAGnewsNotes.

(image 1: Charles Krupa/AP. image 2: Steven Senne/AP. image 3: Jessica Rinaldi/Reuters. Hooksett, N.H., Saturday Jan. 5, 2008. all via YahooNews. image 4 Â©Alan Chin. New Hampshire. January 2007.)

Iowa Results Scrambles The Money Game

2008-01-06T16:40:04Z

Victories by Senator Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee in Iowa have not only upset political calculations, they have also upset the money game and spurred a growing flood of donations for these candidates while making fund-raising trickier for the rest.

Mr. Huckabee, a former Republican governor of Arkansas who ran a campaign with minimal resources, now finds more money flowing his way. As he jetted to New Hampshire from Iowa, money began to show up, click by click over the Internet -- a total of $350,000 by the time he had landed at dawn. By Thursday, the campaign hopes to have an online total of $1 million in fresh cash.

Andrei Cherny: NH Report, 1/5: Everybody is Kung-Fu Fighting

2008-01-05T23:36:15Z

As the big crowd stuffed itself into the cafeteria/auditorium of the Londonderry Middle School, the Dunkin Donuts were snapped up immediately. And there were no carrot sticks to be found. This is clearly not Mike Huckabee's natural constituency.

But there is something in the turnout that shows that guitar-playing, Chuck Norris-escorting, "Christian leader," Mike Huckabee could do better among the ascetic, unflappable New Hampshire Republicans than might be immediately apparent.

As a social conservative, economic populist, Huckabee is not only the clear heir to the tradition of William Jennings Bryan but that of Patrick Buchanan -- who shocked the world with his strong showing against incumbent George H. W. Bush in 1992 and his victory over Bob Dole, Steve Forbes, Lamar Alexander and the rest of the field in 1996.

The difference is that Huckabee is not the "angry man." He is the "amiable man." He phrases his appeal to middle class voters not in terms of resentments but compassion. Today in Londonderry, he delivered something that was less than a presidential campaign stump speech than a secular sermon on hunger and poverty in America and the world.

But the real attraction of the "Huck and Chuck" show is the man Huckabee introduced as a "martial arts artist" -- Chuck Norris. If Ronald Reagan was the breakout of Barry Goldwater's 1964 campaign perhaps this Picasso of beating people up can use his star turn to launch his own political career. Think of it: "Norris, Texas Governor."

Glynnis MacNicol and Rachel Sklar: What Happens In Iowa, Stays In Iowa: Hillary's Cavalry Rides to the Rescue

2008-01-05T04:54:25Z

According to the media after yesterday's Iowa primary, all the women and youth votes have gone to Obama, with the diversity vote soon to follow. Well, apparently no one told the throngs of people lining up at Grand Central with pillows and sleeping bags, waiting patiently in the cold to get on a bus to New Hampshire to go wherever they're needed and sleep wherever there's room.

The call went out two days ago in an email appeal seeking volunteers to bus to NH to stump for the cause. It was that easy -- sign up, show up --and spend six hours in close quarters as part of an impromptu army as diverse as you wouldn't expect: young, seasoned, professional, creative, black, white, asian, east asian -- plus the first Dominican elected official in the US, NYS Assemblyman Adriano Espaillat, from Washington Heights. He brought the sandwiches.

We're here on a bus to Manchester, packed to capacity, as 'embedded reporters' for HuffPost, seeing how Hillary hopefuls are feeling after yesterday's disappointing result in Iowa. As it turns out, surprisingly upbeat.

"Those 150,000 people don't get to decide for the 40 million people in New York, Michigan and Florida," says David Ira Wilson, a talkative, passionate real estate broker from Harlem. "We're part of the movement. Hillary's our girl."

Wilson, a black American, supports Hillary because he says she supported him, and his family, and his people. "The Clintons stood with us for 8 years," he said. "We're standing with them. We're standing with Clintonism. And she's the leader of that now."

Sitting in front of us is Larry Hirsch, the curly-haired, cherubic public-affairs consultant and founder of Westsiders for Hillary (Upper, natch). "She's someone who fits the bill in every way," he says. "Iowa happened, but the real voice, the majority of this country, thinks that Hillary should be president.

He offers us Doritos and points out who's who running things: the white-haired woman in the t-shirt silkscreened with Hillary's face and bags of buttons (Trudy Mason, State Committeewoman from the Upper East Side) and the woman busying herself with the New York Times crossword puzzle beside him, who snaps up into the conversation when it turns to politics (Cynthia Doty, Dem District leader, Upper West Side). She's now chatting diagonally across the aisle with Sophie Donelson, formerly of Blueprint, now of a sudden glut of free time and, ergo, the freedom -- and desire -- to grab a pillow and see how she can help. "I'm here as a girl on a field trip," she says cheerfully. "I am supporting Hillary, but I didn't really know the platform. My goal this year is to learn more about the political process. So I thought this would be a good experiment." (Sophie left her new husband, Greg, at home -- he likes Obama. "He's my first project.")

Behind us are a bunch of people from the Bronx, some of whom are state employees (but they're being cagey with their embedded pressfolk). Chatter turns to Congressman Anthony Weiner, mayoral hopeful in the model of Mike Bloomberg (read: Jewish and single), and Councilman Eric Goia (who ripped ConEd after the Queens blackout), both of whom are joining via car. Everyone's coming from somewhere -- New Yorkers of all stripes who believe in this candidate (and don't believe she's down for a second....but they're going to New Hampshire just to make sure. "The cavalry to the rescue," says Wilson with a grin. Hillary's his girl.

*******

Here's a quick video snip introducing the ride and showing how Glynnis and I encountered Sophie Donelson. You just never know who you're going to run into embedded on a Hillary Clinton bus to New Hampshire!

RJ Eskow: Hillary's 'Comeback Kid' Opportunity -- Already Squandered?

2008-01-04T17:42:50Z

You gotta say this for the Clinton team's strategy: it's different. Instead of asking for votes they've been battering the electorate, telling voters that if they don't like their candidate it's their shortcoming, not hers. Idealism is for losers, and the more you dare to hope the more we'll crush your dreams with negativity. With Mark Penn's 'incumbent' strategy in ruins, last night looked like an opportunity to change her direction by unshackling herself from bad advisors and appealing to voters one-on-one.

That was then, this is now. She could have taken this opportunity to fire Penn and shake herself loose from James Carville and the other weathered barnacles clinging to the hull of her campaign. "I did it the consultants' way," she could have said, "now I'm going to be me." Instead it looks like she's sticking with the old team and their ugly ways. Penn wasted no time telling a group of reporters that their campaign's going to get even nastier as they try to rough up Obama some more.

That's not to say that the other campaigns haven't been tough on Clinton, or that they haven't hit her with criticism. Of course they have. But they don't make a fetish of negativity the way Penn did in his journalists' chat last night. Where Obama promotes optimism and Edwards pushes change, the Clintonites are taking a different approach.

"Pretty face you got there, Senator. It would be a shame if ... something happened to it."

Clinton and Penn could be talking about lessons learned in Iowa, but apparently that's not the way this team works. Too bad. She has some good people in her corner, but their voices don't seem to be loud enough to drown out the others.

She's been a good Senator, but that's a legislative job. Her career has only given us two examples of her executive abilities: the 1994 health initiative, and this year's campaign. We know what happened in '94, and her management decisions this year - on everything from hiring to human resource management (she should have insisted Penn take a leave of absence) to choice of themes and tactics - have been disappointing. That's not promising for a would-be Chief Executive.

The electorate is unimpressed by her campaign strategy, and her response seems to be to tear down the other guy so that voters will accept her because they have no other choice. This was Hillary Clinton's chance to redefine herself in a positive way. It doesn't look like she's interested. She could still eke out a nomination victory in a three-way race, but it looks like she's sticking with a negative and self-entitled strategy. Win, lose, or draw, that's bad news for the Democratic Party.

A Night Light
The Sentinel Effect: Healthcare Blog
Future-While-U-Wait
RJ Eskow at the Huffington Post

Jerry and Joe Long: Clinton Aide Accuses Obama of Fathering Two Black Girls

2008-01-04T16:07:28Z

Manchester NH -- Mark Penn, senior political strategist for the Hillary Clinton campaign, today urged Barack Obama to "come clean" and admit that he has fathered two African American girls.

Penn, speaking to reporters on the Manchester airport tarmac as he was getting his hair re-slimed, defended raising the issue on the grounds that his candidate is losing and he needed to throw as much shit at the wall as possible in hopes that something will stick.

"I'm merely pointing out that the senator has two children", Penn gurgled through layers of gelatinous neck fat, "yes they were born in wedlock, but the fact of the matter is they are not white and it's merely something for rural New Hampshire women over age 65 to consider". Penn added he had no "specific evidence" that Obama had "ever given or sold" the girls drugs.

In a related development, long time Clinton bagman Terry McAuliffe urged independent Granite State voters to "find something else to do next Tuesday". "For this to be a change election", he said, "we need our kind of turnout".

James Boyce: MoveOn And The League: Helping Youth Voters Continue To Grow

2008-01-04T15:08:13Z

I was impressed last night in Des Moines, I have to admit it. As the returns came in and I chatted about them with friends like Ari Melber, it became increasingly clear that a watershed moment had just happened.

Obama's victory was fueled not just by the young and young at heart voting for him, but by an incredible group of young workers who spread across Iowa with passion and heart. You could see the excitement in the crowd and when the press folks are standing on tables fighting for a peek of the candidate, you know something is up.

In the flurry of the last couple of days, an amazing new application went up on Facebook, a joint effort of the League of Young Voters and MoveOn and assisted by many other groups.

The application is not just an online primary of Facebook users but has many ways to continue to involve young voters in the political process, researching issues and seeing what their friends think.

How right was MoveOn when it said in an email about the project:

In our press outreach, we'll be stressing that young folks aren't as apathetic as they're made out to be -- and that this year especially, they're engaged.

Last night certainly proved that.

It's incredibly exciting to think that we might be at the cusp of the moment, or actually at the moment, when technology not only involves a new generation of Americans in the political process, some young, some older but also brings people from the virtual world into the real one.

Check out the The Facebook: League Of Young Voters Primary here.

Peter Smith: In Iowa - A Return To Blessed Normalcy

2008-01-04T14:52:26Z

Well that's it. Iowa has caucused. The show is over. They're done down there.

No more photo opportunities over coffee at the Main Street Cafe. No more press buses rolling through town, snarling traffic at the stoplight. No more slick New York types interviewing Grampa via satellite. And, best of all, no more political advertising -- at least until fall.

For the better part of a year there, Iowa was stuck -- and, (being Iowa), the whole state was too polite to tell the politicians and their entourages where to get off.

Unable to find anything nice to say, Iowa had to stuff it. Iowa had to indulge its inner Norwegian.

So Iowa smiled and listened politely. Iowa endured the unending commercials, suffered through the frivolous debates, and put up with the incessant polling.

From our vantage point up here in Minnesota, it was fascinating in that way that other peoples' misfortunes can be fascinating. It was like looking out the front window and seeing that the neighbor across the street has accidentally answered the door for a bunch of Jehovah's Witnesses. You feel a little sorry for her, but deep down you're a little amused -- and really glad it wasn't you.

Iowa is arguably the normalest state in the union. Long on pragmatism and common sense, Iowans understand the value and virtue of getting along with one another.

But there they were, under siege from the polarizing forces of weirdness, forced to endure months of angry rhetoric about issues that just don't feel normal in Iowa -- or anywhere else.

How strange it all must have sounded down there:

"Mr. Candidate - If a transgendered Mormon-Hispanic stem cell entered the country illegally and bought a house in Altoona with a subprime mortgage, should congress enact a law raising taxes to bail that stem cell out and requiring it to speak English and go to war with Iran?

And if you were elected president would you sign such a law?"

Safe in our homes north of Albert Lea, we were aware of your anguish, Iowa. We were aware and yet oddly frozen, watching in horror, unable to act.

But now it's over. The winners have won. The losers have spun. Now it's, "On to New Hampshire, and let's win there."

Your long, statewide nightmare has come to an end. The surreal circus has pulled up stakes, folded its tents, and slipped away into the night. And you can get back to the business of being Iowa.

Hey, Iowa...

Welcome home.

Morra Aarons-Mele: Is Obama's Victory the End of "You Go Girl" Politics?

2008-01-04T13:52:57Z

I do not want to overstate Iowa's importance. But last night in Iowa, "Obama got 35 percent of women voters, compared to 30 percent for Clinton and 23 percent for Edwards. This despite the fact that Clinton focused her campaign on bringing fellow women to the polls." I have not yet seen the age splits (only "entrance polls") on these numbers (I think younger women probably skewed to Obama), but I wonder if there will be a lot of noise from pundits that Obama's victory signals a shift in how women vote. I thought so too. At any rate, Clinton's "You go girl" message was just not enough to get a majority of women to vote for her in Iowa, and while it feels surprising, it should not be, even though traditionally the messaging of political women's groups like EMILY's List, convinces us that women will vote for women. I can't tell you the times I have heard, "if only women saw more women in office, they'd not only vote more, they would run more too." It's a nice message.

But Iowa's result is actually supported by data. Women do vote slightly more for women, but mostly, women vote for Democrats, and women candidates tend to be Democrats. It is possible that given the choice between two (three, actually) strong Democrats in Iowa, the fact that one was a woman was not enough to trump.

Jennifer Lawless, an expert on women candidates and 2006 Congressional candidate, clarified the trope of women voting for women when she noted back in April 2007,

Women do tend to vote for female contenders, but that doesn't necessarily translate into a gender preference, explains Jennifer Lawless, a political scientist at Brown University who studies women candidates. What happens, she says, is that women are more likely to vote for Democrats, and women candidates are more likely to be Democrats.

Lawless believes that Clinton will actually face challenges in attracting women primary voters. For starters, all the candidates are Democrats, so the party-label advantage goes away.
"Women tend to prefer outside candidates," Lawless says. "Hillary Clinton is not the outside candidate. She's the establishment candidate." Women are also more likely to back liberal candidates. "Clinton's by far not the most liberal of the bunch."

Others aren't surprised at Obama's win with women. My friend Maria, a political scientist cum consumer marketing consultant says "The excitement of first woman president I don't think resonates with younger folks - I think it's more of an old school feminist appeal. I think generally younger people would be more excited by Obama's multicultural background than Hillary as a woman."

Lisa Stone, co-founder of BlogHer who's been covering politics for a long time, wrote: "...in every survey I've ever done women decry the idea of voting for a woman just because of her gender. Especially boomers."

Over on BlogHer last night, Marilyn from Land of Moo commented to me: "What's mystified me over the last year+ of this campaign is why so many women DO support Hillary. Sometimes I wonder if they're blinded by gender. For ME (just MY opinion), she has so many negatives that her gender can't possibly overcome them. And I'm an old-school feminist."

Well, I'm a new school feminist, and I supported Hillary because of her gender. I think it's important to get more women in high office (esp. because the US ranks 82nd in the world in female representation, and look at the state of our government), and the only way to do it is to vote them in. But Iowa has me questioning my choice. Good thing I have 'til Feb. 5 to decide.

*For more on women candidates, see Lawless, Jennifer L. and Richard L. Fox. It Takes a Candidate: Why Women Don't Run for Office. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005.

PS: Jennifer Lawless, if by chance you read this, I would love to see your thoughts in the comments!

Ari Melber: Why Obama's Win is Bigger Than You Think

2008-01-04T11:49:42Z

Des Moines -- Barack Obama's decisive victory in the Iowa Caucus is probably even larger than most people realize. In a battery of national polls -- often inaccurate but relentlessly pitched as self-fulfilling media predictions -- Clinton led by an average of 21 points just last week. As the Clinton Campaign used to emphasize, she also led in December polls from every upcoming primary state, from Iowa to Nevada. She spent about $7 million on over 8,000 television ads in Iowa, plus at least another $10 million on outreach in the state, and stood on the shoulders of Democratic giants, from President Clinton to Michael Whouley to a sizable chunk of the liberal policy establishment.

Barack Obama battled an expectations game stacked against all challengers; a metric of experience discounting work beyond Washington; and an unknowable question about the relevance of his skin color, swirling around his candidacy alone. Last night, Iowans did not simply accept Obama's masterful ability to clear those hurdles, they rushed to support him in an unprecedented coalition within record-breaking turnout. Over half of Democratic attendees were first-time caucus goers. Obama tapped the largest share of the new participants, who compromised 41 percent of his support. Youth turnout jumped 5 percent from 2004, thanks to Obama, who drew a whopping 57 percent of voters under 30. (Edwards and Clinton netted 13 and 11 percent, respectively.) Obama won more support from women voters than Clinton, by five percent. And he bested Clinton and Edwards by a solid 7 percent - roughly 25 percent of their totals.

Republicans saw 108,000 people caucus last night, while the Democrats drew a record-breaking 239,000 caucus attendees -- a gain of 115,000 from 2004. In today's New York Times, Adam Nagourney depicts the Democrats' "huge turn-out" as a demonstration of "the extent to which opposition to President Bush has energized Democrats." Not quite. Bush was easily as big an energizer in 2004, when he was actually on the ballot and Democrats were eager to battle an incumbent who had never even won the popular vote. Something else is at work here: a strong Democratic field with several compelling candidates; a sense that this is a rare and epic intramural battle that can set the party's course; and, apparently, a hunger for an Obama candidacy that is as adamant about transcending Bush Republicanism as it is about vanquishing Clintonian politics.

Kelly Nuxoll: Tears In Dubuque

2008-01-04T06:59:01Z

Dubuque, Iowa--There were tears all over Dubuque tonight.

At the Richardson field office, young staff stood around outside in the cold, stamping their feet and swallowing hard. Although Richardson came in fourth and will go on to New Hampshire, his team had of course hoped he'd do better than 4%.

Next door, most Biden folks were already gone.

Although everyone who promised to caucus for Biden did, explained one of his organizers, the high turn-out tonight hurt Biden. In some precincts, there were several hundred percent more people than expected, which meant Biden needed a higher percentage to be viable than organizers anticipated.

"We didn't have the money," the organizer said, shut his laptop, and pulled the plug.

For their candidate coming in (a scant) second, the John Edwards office was subdued. Eighteen staff and volunteers silently watched Edwards' speech on a computer monitor -no TV was evident in the office at all--then started bundling up to leave.

"Obama had a free ride on the press," one volunteer said.

Another did a straw poll as to whether anyone would support Clinton should she be the nominee. There were no obvious takers. "I'm going for Bloomberg," the volunteer announced.

In contrast, there was no doubt Obama had won. The sign tacked up on the office door said so, along with a blanket invitation to a party down the street. There, with seventy-odd people packed into the basement of a bar, it was hard to tell who was laughing, who was crying, and who was planning for their candidate's inauguration.

"I'm elated," Ruth Scharnau, a precinct captain for Obama, said over the noise. "This is the best organized campaign I've ever worked on."

Dianne Roche, another precinct captain, said she was overwhelmed. "I remember my dad watching JFK and just busting his buttons he was so proud," she said. Her eyes filled with tears. "That's the way I feel tonight."

Across town, Clinton's campaign had gone to Happy's. "When I see the pie, I don't see third place. I see a third, a third, a third," said precinct captain Cindy Wiese. She reiterated Clinton's message of experience, proven leadership, and hard work.

The words were positive, but her voice wobbled.

Matthew Palevsky and Bess Kalb: Biden Stripped of Caucus Delegates: What the Faucus?

2008-01-04T06:38:37Z

DES MOINES, IOWA - In the gymnasium of Brody High School tonight, Joe Biden earned the requisite 15 percent of the vote. He was ruled an inviable candidate.

With 437 people crowding the gym floor, mob mentality won out over accuracy and fairness. Biden supporters left tonight's caucus with a shaken faith in a proud Iowan ritual.

Caucusers began by separating into seven camps, demarcated by clusters of enthusiastic supporters waving signs for their respective candidates. Of the seven candidates, only Clinton and Obama started with enough supporters to continue on to the second round of voting. Biden began the night 22 people short of the 70 supporters needed to qualify.

What followed was an kind of inside trading barely intelligible to non-native eyes. Husbands motioned to their wives across the room, precinct captains offered delegate positions to undecided voters from second tier camps, and hecklers tried to scare the undecided away from beckoning rivals.

Richardson, Dodd and Kucinich failed to garner enough support, but their defectors appeared to give Edwards and Biden legitimizing numbers. Cheers sounded from the Biden bleachers. The smugness and glory at having risen to seemingly exclusive ranks spread through the group, and "BI-DEN! BI-DEN!" was the war cry.

The Precinct Secretary counted Biden's corner as 69 strong--one person short. A woman in the red coat had wandered into a crowd of Edwards supporters and now headed back to the Biden circle. "Times up!" yelled the Precinct Secretary before the woman in a red coat could make it into counting range. Waving his clipboard in the air, the Secretary screamed that Biden supporters must quickly choose another candidate. They dispersed into a fog of bribes and beckoning.

One Biden supporter, Kevin Owens, protested. He pointed out that they would have had the 70th vote if the Precinct Secretary had waited a few more seconds. Then, the woman in the red coat would have joined the Biden supporters, making him a viable contender. It was too late. The crowd had dispersed into the remaining three camps. As the voters moved according to the will of the Secretary, Kevin didn't let matters go. He complained directly to the Precinct Captain, who got the state officials on the phone. Red-faced, the Captain hurried Owens into the hall, where he was given conflicting directions. No one running this election was certain what should, or could, be done at this point. "We don't have time to get the Biden folks back into a group," the Captain told Owens. "There are old women in there that need to get home."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcZC3Ifsw9I

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uI_R-cTAZzE

Not only was the leadership clueless as to caucus protocol, but they were dismissing people's political choice in the interest of expediency. The Good Secretary scapegoated geriatrics to move things along. Owens wasn't satisfied.

The anonymous state official on the other end of the phone eventually demanded that the entire caucus vote on whether to allow the newly assimilated Biden supporters time to regroup and find a 70th vote. He stood on a table and called for a vote.

"Those in favor?" Uncertain ayes echoed in the gym. "Those against?" A resounding chorus of nays. The Biden supporters had been out-yelled by the droves of Clinton, Obama and Edwards supporters who were not about to relinquish their stumbled-upon converts.

At the end of the night, Obama won the caucus by one vote - 173 to Clinton's 172. Who knows how the night would have ended had the woman in the red coat been allowed to stand up for her candidate. Kevin Owens stood alone where a swarm of sign carrying cacausers once chanted Biden's name. For him, the night's events stripped not only his ability to exercise his democratic right, but also silenced an important voice from outside of mainstream America.