Circling the Sleeping Giant: The Campaigns and the Latino Vote

By Pilar Marrero

Despite appearances and poll numbers, neither presidential candidate has a lock on the Latino vote. The National Council of La Raza convention in San Diego, which just ended yesterday (7/15/08), showed that both candidates have to overcome a strong measure of doubt among Latinos -- Obama because of his race and the bitter primary battle, and McCain because of his backtracking on immigration reform.

Obama appeared first, on Sunday, and McCain the next day. They were both well received but not with the same fervor: Obama got a bigger crowd, strongest applause, and two times more press.

By the time McCain came around on Monday, the press corps was diminished greatly, many activists didn't show up for lunch -the overflow room that was full on Sunday was virtually empty on Monday- and the excitement level had noticeably dropped.

It's completely anecdotal evidence, of course, but it shows that the Latino groups and activist crowd that usually attend the NCLR conferences support what the polls are saying. The latest Gallup Poll of Latinos shows a 30 point difference in support between Obama and McCain. Obama is getting close to 60 percent and McCain has about 29 percent.

That is a big advantage, but probably not enough to assure that a strong McCain push won't take him closer to the famed 40% that President Bush got twice, and a chance to win in western states that could prove crucial to him.

In the current environment, where the Republican brand is "damaged" - this was the word used by a McCain person on a panel on Tuesday - a 60% latino vote for Obama is not impressive. He should get closer to the 78% of Latinos that voted Democratic in the primary to really show he's got them, and to approach what Bill Clinton got in '96.

That's why, behind closed doors, campaign operatives for Barack Obama were meeting with activists and other Latino leaders who were previously close to Hillary Clinton to set the scene for the upcoming general election campaign.

Many are already on board, including pollster Sergio Bendixen, who was famous for uttering the phrase, "Latinos have not shown an inclination for supporting Black candidates in the past," when he was working for Hillary. Bendixen is now going to be doing strategy and focus groups with prospective Latino voters to fine tune the Obama message and get those not-so-inclined Latinos that he mentioned before to vote for Obama after all.

On the Republican side, former Bush Latino advertising guru Lionel Sosa is now with the campaign. Sosa was so upset about the tone of the Republican primary campaign -where all were trying to out-Tancredo Colorado congressman Tom Tancredo and his anti-immigrant fervor- that he crossed over to the Democratic side to work with New Mexico Governor - and one time presidential candidate - Bill Richardson. He is now back in the Republican fold doing Spanish-language ads and strategy for McCain.

McCain is walking a tightrope on the issue of immigration. After taking the lead in 2006 to try and pass immigration reform, and taking a step back in 2007, still supporting the issue but not really involved in any negotiations, McCain took a different view during the primaries and in particular, during one Republican debate at the Simi Valley Reagan Library.

Read the rest of the post at Feet in Two Worlds.

Comments

[clr2]

Tom Tancredo does not have an "anti-immigrant fervor". He is against ILLEGAL immigration and most Americans agree with him. All ILLEGAL ALIENS, no matter which countries they come from, should be deported and those who hire ILLEGALS should be heavily fined and jailed. Tom Tancredo is right on when it comes to ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION!