iPhone app iPad app Android phone app Android tablet app More

Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Firas Al-Atraqchi

GET UPDATES FROM Firas Al-Atraqchi
 

Assad Regime's Final WMD Gambit Plays to Israel, U.S. Fears

Posted: 07/25/2012 3:25 pm

Syria is on the verge of implosion as the military dictatorship put together by the late Hafez al Assad struggles to deal with defections, emboldened rebels, and blow-delivering assassinations of senior officials.

Last week when rebels infiltrated the capital, surprising both the military and the residents living there, many analysts predicted that the Assad regime's downfall was imminent.

But unlike its neighbor Iraq, which destroyed one of the world's largest stockpile of chemical weapons under UN supervision in the 1990s, Syria has maintained its WMD program far from the prying eyes of international inspectors.

And this is the ace in the hole the Assad regime, or rather the military dictatorship which rules the country, hopes will prevent its complete demise.

When Syrian Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi warned that his government would not use chemical weapons against its own people but rather against "foreign aggressors" he was covertly appealing to the U.S., Israel and Russia to prevent the regime's downfall.

Or at the very least guarantee an exit strategy for the ruling military cadre. Otherwise, Makdissi is really warning, these weapons would fall into the hands of what Damascus has labelled extremists.

To the Israelis, a nightmare scenario presents itself if Hezbollah is able to get even a trickle of these WMDs. From Washington's perspective, the decade-old specter of al Qaeda gaining access to WMDs is something to avoid at all costs.

Dozens of al Qaeda fighters, formerly wreaking havoc in Iraq, have in the past year been filtering into Syria, according to reports which first appeared in The Christian Science Monitor earlier this year.

If they were to get their hands on these weapons they could possibly use them in Iraq, bringing down the government there and plunging both countries into perpetual civil war.

Israel seems to have understood the predicament facing the region. Several defense officials have added their voice to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's concern that they are aware that the Syrian government is currently in control of the WMD stockpile but fear chaos following the regime's ouster could deliver these weapons to extremists.

Both the U.S. and Israel are wary that an air or special forces raid on the WMD facilities could further increase tensions in the region, if not usher in a limited regional confrontation.

But will this gambit save the regime? Unlikely, in its current form. But it does increase capital for the military dictatorship, possibly opening channels between senior generals and Israel or the U.S. to secure -- or destroy -- the WMDs in the event of Assad's departure.

On the other hand, the U.S. could use its Persian Gulf proxies to pressure the mostly Sunni rebels in Syria to prevent the WMDs from being captured by Hezbollah.

 

Follow Firas Al-Atraqchi on Twitter: www.twitter.com/firas_atraqchi

FOLLOW WORLD
Syria is on the verge of implosion as the military dictatorship put together by the late Hafez al Assad struggles to deal with defections, emboldened rebels, and blow-delivering assassinations of seni...
Syria is on the verge of implosion as the military dictatorship put together by the late Hafez al Assad struggles to deal with defections, emboldened rebels, and blow-delivering assassinations of seni...
 
 
  • Comments
  • 16
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Recency  | 
Popularity
photo
notmisaacm
That which is attributed to malice is often explai
05:19 PM on 07/31/2012
We should buy the WMD's, all of them, for cash and a safe landing place for the Assad regime and their cronies. It sets a bad precedent, but the possibility of Hezbollah and/or Al Queda with even a small percentage of these weapons is scary and the cost of the bribe has got to be less than the price of the damage they could cause.

A Swiss bank account full of cash and a couple of fueled up air-planes for the right to ship all of that poison to somewhere it can be destroyed seems like the deal to be made. Right now. Then the Syrians can have the civil war they are seeking with only minimal collateral damage.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Brian Es
01:59 AM on 07/29/2012
Syria can deluge Israel with tons of chemical weapons directly linked to Saddam Husseins Iraq and not only will this sites authors likely deny they are from Iraq but they will blame the Israeli's for being attacked.

Oh then the USA will be bad..our troops will never be given credit for success but our enemies success/failure will be harped to high heaven. The enemy will be "undefeatable" even after he is defeated.....I'm sure someone else will be evil as well Romney being the most likely....

Then when its all done and like Iraq not ending on the pre-arranged narrative..they will ignore it and claim it was all a failure.

Also note the narrative.."Iraq destroyed it WMD under UN" totally ignoring any possibility they may be in Syria.

In terms of US politics..Obama's lack of leadership ability and the general dismissal of him as relevant in foreign affairs by world leaders is making this and other situations(notably Iran) worse.
12:20 AM on 07/27/2012
The sudden deluge of news articles on Syria's WMD chemical stockpile the past week reminds me ominously of the same sort of alarm that the G W Bush administration used in 2002 to prepare the US and Western news audience for the invasion of 2003 that quickly followed. Desperate that the Russian and Chinese vetoes at the Security Council have effectively stymied plans to attack Syria under UN imprimature, the US-British-French allies have seized on an older discredited gambit to stir up emotions and war-fever.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Sam Bark
It's a MAD world after all...
12:43 AM on 07/28/2012
getrealview - This is NO coincidence! Those WMD in Iraq were moved by Saddam to Syria prior to US invasion in order to salvage them for a later day, after the US leave and Saddam return to power.
At the time reports in Israel press and El-Jazeera describe the transfer and the CIA also knew about it from its spy satellite, this is the reason the US found only empty warehouses and plants making US Administration look silly…. The US liberal media bought the ploy hook, line and sinker…
07:12 PM on 07/25/2012
the salafist sunni militias are the ones who would use the wmd's on israel if assad is removed from power.
shia's didn't want to fight israel because they'd only have irans support. if sunnis take over in syria then saudi arabia and turkey and egypt will all come to its aide in a war with israel.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
Baghooli
Immortals!
09:02 PM on 07/25/2012
Insightful!
09:08 PM on 07/25/2012
Yeah, Syria's ruling Shias are so reluctant to use chemical weapons they've built up the world's largest operational store of them ...
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
bi-partizan
citizen with integrity
06:30 PM on 07/25/2012
Syrian regime does have Russian and Chinese made WMD's they said so...I am concerned...if any of those containers move to hands of Hezbullah or Iraq or Al Qaida all Middle is will be in danger....It will take an crazy man to use it ..However, Al Qaida, Hezbullah, Iraqis ...Ghee its scary to even think about it...C'mon UN do something ....Russia and China get out of the VETO game and be a member of the world community for a change...
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Want2knowY
09:42 AM on 07/26/2012
Hizbollah would want Syrian Chemical weapons and its Russian Missles for the same reason that Iran wants nukes---to limit Israel's ability to hit back or attack them in any future conflict. Given Hizbollah's past and its present, nothing good would come of this. Far, far better to make sure these items never get to them. They Syrian rebels should not have them either, given some of their apparently more radical members.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
bi-partizan
citizen with integrity
12:03 PM on 07/26/2012
What do you know about Syrian Rebels? Did you have talk with them? Do you realy now why they are doing this?...May I kindly suggest...do not jump the gun before things come to light.......
photo
Geo80
Truth. Reality. Smart, sane people agree with me
04:44 PM on 07/25/2012
Israel's main problem is that the countries near Israel are slightly insane.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Want2knowY
09:47 AM on 07/26/2012
Well, radical and extremist if not insane. Syria has always been the center of Arab nationalism. They have always seen themselves as on the frontline of the conflict with Israel. Add in Hizbollah and Hamas and you can understand the challenges Israel faces.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Sam Bark
It's a MAD world after all...
01:03 AM on 07/28/2012
geo80 - You said it right....Fav