Is Clinton's 2012 Campaign Under Way?

We know Hillary Clinton is smart, and we so can assume that for some time she has known, as well as anyone, that it is virtually impossible for her to become the Democratic nominee for President in 2008. So what could explain her continuing to battle, risking her party's approbation?

We fear there is one explanation that fits too well: that Clinton is actually already fighting the 2012 race. We hope we are wrong. But within this frame, her actions do make perfect sense.
Clinton seems to be doing her best to weaken Obama's candidacy and therefore the likelihood that he can win against McCain. With that result, she could say, "I told you so" and offer herself as the 2012 savior of the Democratic Party. Her husband's statement last weekend, that the Democrats were more likely to lose in November if she is not the nominee, fits that pattern.

Here's, sadly, how the strategy looks to us.

First Clinton defends her continued presence in the race against all odds, arguing that the pressure on her to get out is "unprecedented." To make her case, she compares hers with two other supposedly extended campaigns -- her husband's and RKF's. But Bill Clinton was essentially unchallenged from March on. And RFK? He entered the race mid-March, so his campaign lasted less than three months.

Then she continues her campaign as long as possible -- ideally right through the convention -- all the while pressing themes already proven to weaken Obama's. Her methods:

• Play on powerful racism that in America lies barely below the surface by emphasizing Obama's weakness among white working-class voters.

• Stoke anger about her trailing position among her most ardent supporters -- older white women -- by using sweeping claims of sexist treatment instead of attacking specific sexist statements.

• Promote uncertainty about Obama's religious beliefs, but subtly so she doesn't get slammed. For example, when she was asked whether Obama is a Muslim, she equivocated with "No, as far as I know."

• Point out, along with McCain, Obama's lack of military service as evidence that he will be inexperienced and weak in dealing with our enemies -- not as tough as she and McCain would be.

• Make the full counting of the Florida and Michigan votes a moral necessity, increasing anger among those voters. Although these states would not appreciably affect the delegate count, giving them full voting rights would create havoc in the Democratic Party's 2012 campaign schedule.

• Resist as long as possible the inevitable coming together of the two campaigns, depriving Obama of time to consolidate his efforts and giving her more time to deepen resentment against Obama among her supporters.

As a 2008 strategy, when Clinton had a reasonable chance of becoming the nominee, each of these tactics made some sense. Negative campaigning, carefully designed, often works wonders. But now that it is clear to virtually everyone that -- barring some catastrophic event -- she will not be the nominee in 2008, her actions seem to make sense only as a 2012 strategy.

She is taking a big risk, to be sure. If she goes too far, she will be seen as one cause of Obama's failure -- another Ralph Nader. She must take care not to alienate those whose support she will most need in 2012. But if we are right, she will continue to come right up to the line but not cross it too often, fighting on and on through the convention in August.

If we are wrong, and we hope we are, Clinton will graciously withdraw next Tuesday night when all fifty states, Puerto Rico, and the territories have been heard. She can declare whatever victories she wishes. But at that point, she must join Obama, ask all of her supporters to throw their full energies in support of him, and do everything she can to help him become President of these United States.

Whether or not Clinton refuses to concede at this point, the remaining uncommitted superdelegates should declare themselves immediately after the release of Tuesday's results and the leadership of the Democratic Party should publicly declare that the people have decided who their nominee will be.

Richard R. Rowe, Ph.D. has been active in the Democratic party for many years, and served in 2003 as Director of the Internet and Information Services for the Dean for America campaign. He is a Senior Fellow of the Small Planet Institute and recently was Co-chair of the Transition Team on Technology for Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick.

Frances Moore Lappé of the Small Planet Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is the author of sixteen books, most recently Getting a Grip: Clarity, Creativity, and Courage in a World Gone Mad.

Follow Frances Moore Lappe on Twitter: www.twitter.com/fmlappe

Comments

[GaiasChild]

One way you can be wrong is to come up with some other interpretaton that makes sense out of Clinton's present behaviors. Your take is pretty convincing but you keep hoping you are wrong. I am not sure why that is but I will offer you another filter that makes the behaviors appear rational and necessary. There was a shattering shock to her emotionally during his administration. She was deeply wounded not only privately but for the public nature of the drama. When she began to heal, this dream was her new identity. She got to be senator from NY and then she got to be the odds on favorite for first woman president. She certainly had the professional commitment. When that identity appeared to be failing she could not allow it. There's nothing to fall back but that devastating well of loss and pain. This was going to make it all right. So she is fighting not just for the empowerment of women but for her survival as an indentity. She has lived and breathed this dream since she went house shopping in Westchester, If not 2008, 2012, 2016 yes. Which supports your view. But 2008 is necessary for she's burned so many bridges emotionally and socially and she doesn't want to go back to the Senate.

[Kuk]

I think your post is very perceptive and may well be right. Sadly, this does not excuse the behaviour of her campaign during this contest. I cannot believe that people supporting her are so keen to overlook some of the disgusting behaviour she has involved herself in. I find it difficult to believe anything she says, which is very sad. She had immense power at the start of this contest, she has totally squandered it. I think it is going to take a long time for her reputation to recover. It seems like she is trying to make herself the victim and by extension generate hostility towards Obama. Does she not see that her candidacy was supposed to be about empowerment not victimhood.

[jsarets]

The Clintons, of all people, know quite well that "I told you so" always backfires in American politics. We don't like sore losers. If she thought she would be a better president than Obama, then perhaps she should have demonstrated her skills by not running an incompetent campaign.

In May 2000, 50% of McCain supporters said they would not vote for George W. Bush. We all know how that turned out...

[KarenKaren]

I didn't know about McCain supporters swearing off voting for Bush. Thanks for the info.

[S1m0n]

Hillary Clinton will be an old, old, old, joke by the time 2012 rolls along. She's so last millenium it's not funny. The only change four years would make to her electability is that in four years time, even more of her supporters will have died of old age. Her demographic is retirees and aging boomer women: they're not making more of either commodity. Barack Obama is gaining all of the growth in the democratic party.

[jadez]

that was her strategy but it is no longer.

she is only staying in to harm Obama out of revenge.

she knows everything we know, thats true.

heres the key.

she has lost forever the african- american vote.

no white candidate can win without them.

she may think she can win them back in 4 years but if Obama loses to mccain she will take the blame and not not only lose forever the black vote but they would even cross over to deney her any future victory.

she will never be president.
she knows that.
she wants revenge.

[KarenKaren]

Is it only the black vote she has lost? There are few blacks in Iowa, yet polls consistently show her losing against McCain and Obama winning against him. I think that's telling another story we're not hearing about in the media. White votes regarding Clinton.

On the other hand, many black voters say they'll vote for Hill if she wins.

I don't know, but I do think Obama would seriously campaign on her behalf if she were the nominee. Can't say the same for Clinton. Though it would help her if she did.

[Charmed]

I believe the black people that are saying they will vote for hillary are using the reverse "bradley affect" thing. I don't know of any that would vote for her in 2008 and definately not in 2012.

[Countess]

I believe Clinton is smart but she is certainly not intelligent. She is smart like Mike Tyson is smart. She has insulted and denigrated the intelligent part of the democratic party and will try to rebuild it with a new coalition of democratic neocons and the racist and uneducated elements that she works so well now. That is why it so important that Obama wins the presidency in order to avoid such a retrograde step backwards.

[bygollymissmolly]

Well, if she wants to run again in 2012, good luck to her because she will be challenging Obama. And by that time Hillary will be an unpleasant faint memory. If she is somehow able to damage Obama and the Democratic Party so badly that they lose in November, Hillary won't be able to be elected dog catcher in Timbucktu.

[missjabez]

She might run in 2012, allright, but I don't see how she'll even make it out of the starting gate. She's going to have a hard time living down this campaign. If Barack Obama ends up losing the general election, due in part to her shenanigans, there's going to be a lot of bitterness towards her. Unless, she undergoes a major personality change within the next 4 years, I doubt that the Democrats would ever want to put her forth as a nominee.

[LouisPWu]

For a lot of us, Hillary's behavior in this campaign means that we WOULD NEVER VOTE FOR HER--NOT FOR ANY OFFICE OR ANY REASON!

[laylahb]

The 2012 scenario has been around for a few months, and I truly believe that this is where she-- I mean they-- are going with this. If they fail to get the nomination this weekend or through a floor fight at the convention in August, you and I both know that they will take a two month vacation in Europe and return after the general election. They'll just leave the party fractured and take off. Naturally her most staunch supporters, older women, hard core feminists, "hard-working white Americans,' and Florida and Michigan voters will either stay home or vote for McBush.

They get an "I told you so," Hillary will stay in the Senate for a few years, and start her nomination campaign in January 2012.

[burnt]

"Is Clinton's 2012 Campaign Under Way?"

Ever since the calculus revealed that she had lost... months ago. Her big lie has been to those money supporters who have been led to believe that she is running as a candidate for this term. Divide and destroy. Continue to pretend that she is a Democrat. Build the Clinton Party at the expense of the Democratic Party.

Oh yes, she will support Obama, but only after "each and every vote is counted" and all delegates "have had their say"... EVEN IF IT TAKES YEARS. Do anything and everything to gain that next fix for her power addiction.­.. even if it takes longer than first calculated. Totally self-serving.

[Johnnn]

This is a self-fullfilling prophecy. If, and I actually think when, Barack Obama loses in November, Hillary will be blamed. Because of simple demographics, 2008 is Hillary's best shot. By 2012, about
11 million Americans will pass away, and about 14 million new voters will emerge. (I can already hear Obama supporters cheering, if they understand what I just said).
McCain will gain strength between now and November for two reasons: more dirt will come out on Obama, like today's story from Chicago that Obama used old-fashioned tactics to knock his Democratic opponents off the ballot, and the other reason is a curious one I have found among my co-workers. People I work with who voted for Bush, the current President, feel badly enough about it that they can't vote for a Republican again. I tell them that this is assinine. One has nothing to do with the other but it's an uphill argument.
I think I've said enough for now.

[clevelandchick]

Johnn,

I understood what you just said, but if you think about it, those 11 million voters that pass by the next election, they are likely to be related to many Obama supporters - mothers, fathers, grandparents. I doubt all of them will actually be "cheering", that's pretty cold.

I don't think that much more dirt will come out on Obama, they've already had a year. But McCain has been treated with kid-gloves up until now....and now the piling on McCain is just beginning. The conservatives are not happy with McCain. Those whose cause celebre is immigration are not going to back him after he's flip-flopped 85 times on the issue. Regardless of his kissing up to Hagee & Parsley (which has come back to bite him big-time), the evangelical vote is not going to be there for McCain. They don't trust him.

Only the die-hard party-partisans will hold their nose and vote for him. The Republicans only chance at the POTUS was if Hillary gets the Nom. That would bring out the nose-holders. From the day this primary started they wanted to run against Hillary because that was their best chance. It doesn't look like that's gonna happen.

[3Gs]

Well said cleve, and another thing for Johnnn, I work with a guy like you. So willing to vote Republican while ignoring their past blunders, lies and (frankly) atrocities. Granted, the Clinton reign was no joy ride. It's time to stop trying to shovel dirt on Obama, because I'm seriously doubting any of what you find will be substantial. Cartainly not like the stuff in McCain's closet. Hell, you don't even have to look in McCain's closet. The point is, this is a battle between authentic good and truth, and basic lies and deception. That's it, until Obama actually starts to work his magic in the White House. On your Bush comment, I doubt anyone who voted for Bush last election will feel any pain voting for McCain. You have to have a functioning brain and active nerve endings to feel.

[Charmed]

Johnnn, that story is not new, it's been out a long time.

[Lonestarmom]

She must get behind the nominee and push for a Democratic win in November. I will not vote for her in 2012 or 2016 or anytime. She is a very polarizing candidate and her fighting spirit is a turn off to me. I want leadership not a brawler! I am a woman and feel she has damaged beyond repair any future Presidential hopes she may have had. She has a future in the Senate but not if she continues this ridiculous, devisive campaign.

[NavyMom]

I can't think of any other reason for Clinton's recent behavior. Apparently the consequences for our country of a McCain win have not crossed her mind.

[Manchurian]

Like McCain, she was perfectly happy to vote for the immoral, illegal and utterly stupid war against Iraq. Why would she worry about the consequences of a McCain presidency? His policies should suit her just fine.

[SMP]

I am very disallusioned. If Hillary somehow wrests this nomination away from Barack....­I will never vote democratic again...I am dissapointed in the Elders of the party. If we can see what she is doing.....­why cant they......­what makes them so afraid of the Clintons? I am an older white female...a­nd I never, not once, allowed gender or race to sway my decision. Frankly, Hillary is an embarrassment to all women, and those that go right along with her ought to have their heads examined. Her supporters have been crude and rude to those of us that support Obama. calling us a "Cult", Obamabots" Obamanation" "Kool-aid drinkers" ( personally, at my older age, I still love kool-aid)
She along with her supporters have divided the party... I know I will NEVER vote for her. I will stay home.
Well, time will tell.....I just hope and pray..the DNC stands behind their original decision on FL and MI........­......RULE­S ARE RULES.....­..........­we are not Bush/Cheney

[SpoxLogic]

The "Elders" KNOW what she is doing. I think they are just being repsectful to the Clinton Legacy, especially Bill's. By letting her finish out the Primaries, she can never say that they forced her out.

I believe that the true nature of what she wants to accomplish and/or be remembered for will come out after June 3rd. If she continues to try and bring down Obama, then we can all say she's trying to run for 2012. And she will more than likely destroy her career.

However, if she starts to campaign heartily for Obama, then she can salvage her career and even enhance it in the Senate.

She alone has the power to write her place in American political history. But, she has to realize that no chapter will include her as President of these United States.

[Dollfc61]

Thank you, I have thought she was an embarassment to women everywhere also, but have not state it as eloquently as you have.

Of course, now it has become about the "women's" vote, rather than Michigan and Florida. Her party is the one using sexism, and it is so obvious!!! Why can't others see that??

[Dollfc61]

OOPS I meant her campaign.

[Johnnn]

Although Hillary is my candidate, I expect Obama to get the nomination. And I can't vote for Obama. Just can't do it. So I hope Florida and Michigan get smacked down good. "Rules are rules." Banish those two delegations! Florida is voting for McCain anyway, but Michigan needs a little extra push. If just 50,000 Democrats in Michigan are angry enough to vote for McCain, it could be enough to give McCain Michigan. Add to this Obama failing to win Ohio and Penn., and he can't get 270 electoral votes. He loses.
I have to go now, to an Independence Party fundraiser in Schenectady, NY. I'll be back tonight.
Happy posting.

[pros54]

Johnnn why waste your time at an independent fund raiser when you will contribute to something by going to a John McCain fund raiser even the CIC cannot get people to his fund raiser so help is badly needed and wish you luck with the wolves.

[Manchurian]

Johnnn, I'd honestly like to hear why you "just can't" vote for Obama. What is there about Hillary that you like better? And what is there about Obama that keeps you from supporting him?

[allonfla]

I don't know. If America feels the Clintons subjected them to another 4 years of Republican rule for her own benefit, will they forgive her?