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Fred Bauer

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Could Gingrich's SC Win Be a Pyrrhic Victory? Ask Bill Clinton

Posted: 01/22/2012 8:58 pm

There is no doubt that Gingrich's win in South Carolina is a significant victory for him.  The anti-Romney forces pulled out all the stops in the Palmetto State, and, if they couldn't stop the Mitt Train here, they wouldn't be able to stop it anywhere.  Nor should it be forgotten that Gingrich's vote percentage in South Carolina is the second lowest for any winning candidate in a contested South Carolina primary since 1980; even Bob Dole got 45 percent of the vote in 1996.  Only John McCain did worse with 33 percent of the vote in 2008.  Still, Gingrich was able to give new life to his campaign, though the way he won may point to electoral red flags in the future.

Cunningly, Gingrich was able to change the narrative in South Carolina by making it about him.  Between "King of Bain"-style attacks on Romney and his explosions of outrage against the media, Gingrich pushed narratives of Romney's momentum to the background.  Eschewing policy, Gingrich ran instead on performance art.  Despite his long history as a Washington insider and many positions on many issues, he made himself the avatar of "conservative" frustration, victimization, and irritation.  In a Republican primary in South Carolina, that's a good tactic. 

If, however, a general election between Gingrich and Obama becomes a referendum on Gingrich, the former Speaker probably loses.  Obama's mixed record is a hard thing to run on; surely, the White House would much rather run against Newt Gingrich as a cultural and political figure.  Gingrich has proven all too glad to make himself the center of a political race, and the Obama administration will likely oblige him.

Almost twenty years ago, another Democratic incumbent realized this dynamic.  Bill Clinton was able to reconfigure the media landscape by letting the 1996 and 1998 elections be about Newt Gingrich.  In both of them, Republicans lost seats in the House (coming within a few seats of losing the House itself in the latter).  Furthermore, by making Gingrich a central figure of the 1996 campaign, Clinton was able to make what might have seemed a troubled reelection bid a sure thing.  There's a reason why few of Gingrich's conservative House colleagues have endorsed him and why many have outright attacked him.

For a while, Gingrich had run on the narrative that this was a "kinder, gentler" Newt, an older and wiser man who had learned from his past personal and rhetorical excesses.  Gingrich's nuclear (and, at times, self-contradictory) barrage against Romney and the media has shattered that narrative.  We're back to Newt 1.0, the battle plans against which were already drafted by the Clinton White House.

If he wants to be viable as a general election presidential candidate, Gingrich is going to need to move beyond red-meat appeals to the conservative id and beyond the politics of personality.  As Conn Carroll at the Washington Examiner has noted, Gingrich's net approval rating with the American public is around minus 30.  He remains an exceedingly polarizing figure to the public at large.  Gingrich has a few months to turn that around.  But that is a steep hill to climb.  In the days ahead, Republicans will have to ask themselves whether that hill is worth the ascent.

 

Follow Fred Bauer on Twitter: www.twitter.com/fredbauerblog

There is no doubt that Gingrich's win in South Carolina is a significant victory for him.  The anti-Romney forces pulled out all the stops in the Palmetto State, and, if they couldn't stop the Mi...
There is no doubt that Gingrich's win in South Carolina is a significant victory for him.  The anti-Romney forces pulled out all the stops in the Palmetto State, and, if they couldn't stop the Mi...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
scorpions5
Facts do not cease to exist when ignored.
10:44 AM on 01/23/2012
I agree with this article. Newt is too polarized, he talks the talk, but has nothing to go on except his condemnation of the media and anyone else that crosses him. He is opposite of Obama. I want someone that is middle of the road. Obama is too left, Newt is too right. We need someone that will work with congress without getting into a hiffy fit. Newt has NO patience and will not go across the asile. General public will not vote for him. The republicans need to have someone that will reach all people, not just the religious.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Giggie
09:27 AM on 01/23/2012
These tea party extremists have all but guaranteed an Obama victory. Who are the republicans going to choose.....let's see, the billionaire who rewrites himself depending on the crowd, the Freddy Mac lobbyist, the religious zealot who wants religion back in government or the strict libertarian ideologue. all of them want to put the country under corporate control as a cure for the economy. My my
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demisfine
Often correct, NEVER right.
08:53 AM on 01/23/2012
I hope they have a BS meter set up tonight, and that it is well lubricated.
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demisfine
Often correct, NEVER right.
08:52 AM on 01/23/2012
Brian Williams needs to take command tonight.
He needs to make Newt explain the difference between HIS adulterous affair and President Clinton's adulterous affair.
Newt was willing to pursue impeachment charges on Clinton while committing the very same "crime" himself.
His bullying has intimidated lesser moderators.
Williams needs to stick to the script, to not back down, and to make Newt clarify his stance.
Newt may have sought forgiveness from his latest god. Good for him. We have no proof he's been forgiven, and I really don't care if he has been. Newt still needs to live by the same rules everyone else follows. Newt broke them. He needs to tell us why we should trust him again.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Raw Ron
Fox news: we distort, you comply
12:23 AM on 01/23/2012
Any candidate willing to froth at the mouth about Obama will have a chance in the super red states.
All the candidates seem undeterred with repeating complete falsehoods about Obama to the extent I wouldn't know who they were talking about if not for constantly repeating the presidents name. The GOP want more than lies and distortions this time around. They want to make sure their candidate is willing to reflect their personal hatred for the man that they think is the living embodiment of the anti Christ himself. This is a personal campaign of the far right to undermine a president they see as illegitimate. This is of course not the sentiment of the public at large that will view this extreme version of politics as unnecessarily toxic. The GOP has proven with out a shadow of a doubt how dangerous handing the keys of the asylum over to the patients can be.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
eagle95124
In God I trust !!!
11:34 AM on 01/23/2012
proudly # 1000 repeat this post often
11:26 PM on 01/22/2012
Gingrich's record is not something that could ever win him the White House. He has a lot of audacity deflecting reasonable questions with defensive rage.

http://paranoidpolitico.blogspot.com/2012/01/gingrich.html
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Guscat
10:03 AM on 01/23/2012
Fan #2.
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
Chris1962
NYC
10:42 PM on 01/22/2012
>>>Cunningly, Gingrich was able to change the narrative in South Carolina by making it about him. Between "King of Bain"-style attacks on Romney and his explosions of outrage against the media>>> Bingo. The media made a big mistake with their transparent attempt to take Gingrich out with a conveniently timed interview with the ex. From Public Policy Polling: "Gingrich's lead has actually increased in the wake of his ex-wife's controversial interview with ABC. Although one night poll results should always be interpreted with caution, he led the final night of the field period by a 40-26 margin. One thing that continues to work to his advantage are the debates. 60% of primary voters report having watched the one last night, and Gingrich has a 46-23 lead with those folks. The other reason his ex-wife's interview isn't causing him much trouble is that there's a lot of skepticism about it. Only 31% of voters say they think her accusations are true while 35% think they are false and 34% are unsure. 51% of voters say that they have 'no concerns' about what came out in the interview."
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ESerafina42
Abandoned by wolves, raised by Republicans.
11:07 PM on 01/22/2012
Just wondering - how many who say they have "no concerns" are also the type who trumpet their support of "traditional" marriage and are concerned that it will be destroyed by marriage equality?
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
Chris1962
NYC
12:09 AM on 01/23/2012
Their lack of concern likely has everything to do with Gingrich having sought redemption with the Big Guy in the Sky. That's between him and his maker, and it has nothing to do with homosexuals wanting to "marry."
09:51 PM on 01/22/2012
What win? http://www.wtoc.com/story/16571904/south-carolinas-attorney-general-detects-voter-fraud-for-primaries

"South Carolina's Attorney General detects voter fraud during primaries

Already, there has been some question into folks who cast their ballots on Saturday.

South Carolina's Attorney General, Alan Wilson has notified the U.S. Justice Department of potential voter fraud.

Wilson says an analysis found 953 ballots cast by voters were people who are listed as dead.

He has asked the State Law Enforcement Division to investigate."
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Earl Gray
Lighting up straw men everywhere
09:02 AM on 01/23/2012
This was a separate investigation associated with the state's intent to require additional proof of identity before being allowed to vote.

The 1,000 "fake" votes could have been cast any time in the past several elections and most likely do not include votes from the primaries held two days after the report was released.

Expect that this will be used to bolster the overall "voter prevention" effort that SC and so many other states are engaged in.