Ah, the Academy Awards- that one night a year we stop watching the audience-pleasing movies we love in order to appreciate the critically-acclaimed movies we'll eventually get around to watching on DVD... or maybe HBO.
Did you know that people place bets on the Oscar race? It's not a smart gamble. Heck, I lose a fortune every year on my "Tim Allen for Best Actor" prediction.
Nevertheless, when it comes to betting on the Academy Awards, there are three guaranteed, "can't miss" sure things: the speeches will consist of famous people thanking people we don't know, I'll be asleep by the second hour, and the movie that wins the Oscar for Best Picture.
I've spent years developing a complex, mathematical equation for predicting the winning film. And here it is...
If a movie is about dudes, it wins Best Picture. If a movie is about ladies, it doesn't.
There's a big difference between big-budget blockbusters and those dismal, depressing critical darlings. Oh, it's not just that the intellectually-frowned-upon movies (like Star Wars, for example) lack the graphic violence, non-stop profanity, and dreary misanthropic themes that characterize the films that dominate Oscar night. And it's not just that movies such as The Hunger Games and The Avengers -- fun motion pictures made by passionate and creative people, that families enjoy together -- have legions of fans still watching and debating these films years after their initial release, whereas most of the Best Picture winners of recent years are quickly forgotten.
No, there's another difference. Do you want to know why the popcorn movies, the ones that film snobs mock, don't win awards? Because these movies feature strong female characters. Katniss Everdeen is the one participating in the games. Natasha "Black Widow" Romanoff is part of the superhero team. Heck, Rey Skywalker is the main character in The Force Awakens. (I mean, I just assume her last name is Skywalker. But millions of fanboys and fangirls will have this debate for the next eighteen months- in a spirited, nonviolent way... because these movies, so often scorned by elitists, bring people together. Isn't that why we go to the movies?)
For a segment of the population that prides itself on liberal tolerance and diversity, the film community -- at least the people who vote on the awards -- doesn't think much of women.
Here are the last nine movies to win an Academy Award for Best Picture...
The Departed
No Country for Old Men
Slumdog Millionaire
The Hurt Locker
The King's Speech
The Artist
Argo
12 Years a Slave
Birdman
Notice a trend? Yes, Samuel L. Jackson is in all of them. But notice anything else?
The film's protagonist is -- and in most cases the film title itself refers to -- a man. No bird gal. The Artist isn't referring to Georgia O'Keeffe. No Country for Old Men; no movie for old women. No speech for the Queen. The man was a slave for twelve years; the tragic young woman in the film was a slave for her entire life.
Women are gaining more equality in most aspects of society. Heck, female CEOs make almost 80 percent of what their male employees earn. Things are getting better for women, except when it comes to what the Hollywood community considers an Oscar-caliber film.
On Oscar night, things for women have gotten worse. Oscar night is like a 1990s rap video of what Hollywood thinks of women.
Among the Best Picture winners throughout the 1940s and 1950s were Rebecca, Mrs. Miniver, All About Eve, and Gigi.
Do you know what they have in common? That's right; Samuel L. Jackson was in all of them. Plus, women play a predominant role in the plots. I mean, I haven't actually seen any of these films. But I assume they're at least partially about Eve. Well, let me search Netflix to see if any of these films are streami... oooh, Cheers reruns!
Are you betting on this year's Academy Award winners? If you want to increase your odds, take my advice and pick a movie about guys.
Personally, I enjoyed the last nine Oscar winners. Or at least I liked eight of them and I vaguely tolerated Birdman. But I'm not sure if any of those films were really the best movie of that year. There have been fantastic films during the past decade in which women starred. Yet, in 2014, if Birdman didn't win, the Oscar would've gone to Boyhood (a boy growing into a man) or American Sniper (a man shooting stuff). A year earlier, if 12 Years a Slave didn't win, the Oscar would've gone to Captain Philips (a man taken hostage by other men) or The Wolf of Wall Street (a rich man who dates models -- I'm talking about Leonardo DiCaprio... but the movie was also about a man).
Traditional America has finally caught up to Hollywood's lack of values. Meanwhile, when it comes to the Oscars, Hollywood is still lagging behind the rest of society. We are not afraid of movies with women. That's why we go to see them. That's why these movies are big hits. So tell us, Hollywood, what's your excuse?
Here are the 2016 Academy Award nominees for Best Picture...
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
The Big Short is about men in the financial world. The Martian is a man. The Revenant is a man. Mad Max is man. The brilliantly hysterical Spy was about a female spy, Melissa McCarthy. But that fun movie wasn't nominated. Instead, Bridge of Spies is nominated. That's a lot of male spies on the bridge. The Room stars a man, Tommy Wiseau, who also wrote and directed the film. Brooklyn is about a woman.
I'll bet my 1.5 billion-dollar winning lottery ticket on which of these movies doesn't win Best Picture: Brooklyn.
As for which movie will be the winner, well, it will be the one with a spotlight on men... so... any of the other nominees. Take your pick.
Meanwhile, the actual best movie of the year is only nominated in the animation category. It's called Inside Out. It's about a little girl.