The NIE Iran Report and Alan Dershowitz
Throughout most of the Cold War any challenge to the proposition that "the Russians are coming and they're 30 feet tall" was met with derision and outrage by the Right. As a veteran of both the Senate Armed Services and Intelligence committees, I saw repeated rejection of any intelligence estimate that questioned that mantra or placed Soviet military capabilities or intent to use them in any realistic light. The most notorious, but not the only, instance was the appointment of a "Team B" to challenge the view of intelligence experts that the Soviet economy was a mess and its military not much better.
Of course, as we now know, the intelligence community, especially the CIA, was right and the Right was wrong.
Now comes Professor Dershowitz, in a rant that is not only hysterical but almost catatonic, presuming to know more about what is, or is not, going on in Iran than the sum total of sixteen U.S. intelligence agencies combining hundreds of thousands of the nation's most expert intelligence collectors and analysts who annually consume forty or fifty billion American tax dollars.
One did not hear much from Professor Dershowitz when those same intelligence agencies held to the position that Iran was on track to develop nuclear weapons, or at least when President Bush made that claim while suppressing any questions to the contrary. So, by collecting new intelligence and placing it under more intense scrutiny, and, one hears, by threatening to release this report if the White House continued to suppress it, these same intelligence experts suddenly become incompetents and "nincompoops" pursuing, according to Professor Dershowitz, some nefarious agenda of their own. It is never clear what that agenda is supposed to be.
Sounds like the Cold War all over again. Intelligence is good when it tells you what you want to hear. Otherwise, it is dangerously flawed if not sinister.
Experience and common sense tells me that these sixteen agencies with hundreds of thousands of employees pursuing a secret agenda doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
The real question is this: What is Professor Dershowitz's agenda here? Many bloggers automatically assumed is has to do with Israel. But Professor Dershowitz does not say so and, having known and respected him for many years, I presume if he is angry because the intelligence report undermines his broader purpose, he would have the courage to simply say so.
Until he does, one must shake one's head in sadness at a fine mind longing for the Cold War, or for a new villain to justify a wrong-headed empirial militancy in the Middle East, or who knows what.
What has undermined public support for the war in Iraq is the suspicion that other agendas, not least oil among them, were at work but not being disclosed by our leaders. It is a sure guarantee that the American people will turn against any foreign enterprise when they come to suspect that they are not being told the truth.
Perhaps now is the time for everyone to put their cards on the table.
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"having known and respected him for many years, I presume if he is angry because the intelligence report undermines his broader purpose, he would have the courage to simply say so"
You can respect him if you like, I think he is a nut job and could not respect him less.
If he is courageous, it is wasted.
I am, usually, a pinko liberal with predicably suspicious views of this administration, but...Prof
I must at least entertain the possibilities, born of the ambiguity inherent in intelligence work as well as the intelligence community's muddy record, that: (1) the NIE is based on mis/disinformation to lull us and/or allies into decreased sense of danger; or (2) conversely, that Iran disclosed the info underlying the NIE in good faith in order to get us to the negotiating table; or (3) that some Bushies have themselves prompted the NIE in order to deflect Cheney and/or absolve the admin a priori. The history books are full of such agendas, and we should at least think about them.
If everything Dershowitz believes to be true could be proven, I would still vehemently argue against the United States doing ANYTHING about it until after the election next year. Why? Because we are ruled by lunatics who do not plan beyond their next martini olive!
Iraq is an unplanned and unparalleled disaster, set in motion for no reason but lies. Even that did not excuse the absence of ANY plan for after the Shock and Awe against Iraq was committed! Five years into that fiasco, the UN is warning of a second round of cholera due to the lack of fresh water in many parts of the country.
That Iran does NOT have a current program for nuclear weapons, according to every intelligence agency in the United States, should be some comfort for the moment. Perhaps before they ever could or would, we will choose to have adults at the helm of our government. That must exclude Giuliani, Thompson, Romney, and McCain, ... and Clinton with them. Her judgement is unsound, and prone to error.
Time for a new set of eyes on the world so America can truly BE safe, and not pretend to be.
Between excusing torture and defending Israeli war crimes, Dershowitz has lost all his credibility. Iran has no nuclear weapons program, and now everybody knows it. That makes the Israelis and the neocons mad. Boo hoo. They'll just have to invent a different excuse for their next unnecessary war.
Thank you Sen. Hart.
The arguments for attacking Iran seem as if they came out of one of Lewis Carroll's books.
While I welcome heartily the reports from both the UN and the NIE that Iran does not have a program to develop nuclear weapons, I think we should look at this whole issue from more than one point of view.
When did it become a "given" that the U.S., or the UN, have the right to decide whether one of the world's countries has the right to develop nuclear weapons? If the shoe were on the other foot, it is easy to imagine how the U.S. would react if it were forced to undergo inspections on its own territory by more powerful foreigners. We too, in those circumstances, would use every opportunity to shoot our mouths off, to prove to the world that we were still independent.
While welcoming the news that Iran does not have a nuclear bomb, nor the desire to develop one, at some point we need to have a discussion at the UN on what we are all going to do about nuclear weapons.
Having said that, how can the UN have discussions and try to come to agreements, when we allow a President to set himself as above the rule of law? Pres. Bush decided he did not have to abide by the laws developed after World War II regarding the excuses for going to war, when he invaded Iraq without provocation and without UN sanction. Pres. Bush decided he did not have to abide by the Geneva Conventions on the Treatment of Prisoners. Pres. Bush has even condoned treason by allowing, if not participating, in the outing of an active CIA spy and her network, against the laws of the United States.
We have much to think about and to discuss. Let us hope that Pres. Bush and his administration are still open to reason. I think it is unfortuneate that he will never be held accountable for all of his crimes.
Dershowitz said it himself:
"To find a hidden agenda one should always look for the beneficiar
Who benefits from the bomb-Iran hysteria beyond the Likud and its American fellow-travelers, who want to keep the Middle East in chaos so as to continue to make the argument that Israel has "no partner" for peace -- and therefore has the right to maintain its occupation of Palestine indefinitely?
The rights outrage has connected the dots, the question will we stop them?
What I belive is being overlooked in this debate is the lack of evidence that Itan ever had a nuclear weapons program.
Where is the evidence?
It seems to me that the whole case against Iran is another fraud, just like the case for invasion of Iraq.
In that instance, the real reason was to give US oild corporations control of Iraqi oil.
In the case of Iran, it is oil, and it is to maintain Israels's capability to attack any country in the region at will.
The Iran 'nuclear issue" is bunk.
I think we know why the US developed its first nuclear bombs, but we're not so sure about why other nation states have built their nuclear weapons. We can guess that Israel's government has them to deter its avowed enemies. Didn't South Africa have nuclear weapons? Why? Which avowed enemy was South Africa hoping to deter?
Someone told me that Iran's objective for nuclear weapons is to keep its own population in check. Is it impossible to imagine that a government would threaten to use nuclear weapons on its own populace?
Dershowitz asked who benefits from the latest reports, but he should have asked who stands to benefit.
Well, if the Earth's populace continues to burn coal and oil, everyone will soon start to hate life itself: you won't have to look for enemies. The only alternative until some better energy source becomes abundant is nuclear energy from nuclear power plants. If that isn't obvious it's because of all the distracting static.
The competition for building nuclear power plants is keen, plus it's regulated by treaties and highly classified technologies, plus the competition happens to correspond to the Cold War geopolitical array of allies, enemies, and the "developing" countries.
Incidentally, if Valerie Plame Wilson were actually working on behalf of General Electric but had no need to know that, she wouldn't know it.
An old dictum this psychologist considers pretty basic is as follows: "Needs preceed percepts." To put it in more understandable form, we see and understand things as we do because it suits our needs. Thus, we distort reality when it supports our desires. This is not a conscious process and the person that distorts is not aware he/she is, at least somewhat disloyal to reality. The distorter is not necessarily mentally ill; most are not mentally ill.
This Jew believes Dershowitz is truly, if not passionately, Jewish. He wants the very best for Israel. I doubt he is a conscious tool of any Jewish organization or agency. Instead, he creates his notions and then fights for them with his very good intellect. He joins most of us who fight for our own biases. Unfortunately,
Dershowitz is wrong and his biases will, if acted on as he would wish, perpetuate the long standing and painful conflicts in the Middle East.
Dear Senator,
It sure is great to see someone of your stature point to the clear writing (in neon lights) on the wall. Kudos! Made an excellent thread also. Agape.
Why is Iran labeled as a threat? How does a third world country theaten our national security? This claim of a threat is repeated non-stop, 24-7 by the media and politicians.
It is so reminiscent of demonization of Iraq in 2002-03.
When Ahmadinejad says he wants Israel wiped off the map, isn't he referring to the "right of return of Palastinians" which would indeed wipe Israel off the map as a Jewish State. Oh Yea, I thought Israel was posing as a democracy!
Intelligence - The ability to exercise mental functions - The ability to grasp the significant factors of a complex problem or new situation - Information acquired or communicated;news. - The gathering of secret information, esp. of a political or military nature. - A group of persons assigned to gather such secret informatio
Professor Dershowitz teaches law, right? What would the board of his university think if he taught his own theories rather than the true law of the land? I am thoroughly frustrated with these right wing nut bars running our country. Though the Professor has no say in how our government functions he certainly is part of the problem when he spews his right wing nut bar thoughts rather than fact. So many of the right simply don't care about the facts - they just want to hear their own beliefs repeated to them. Hence FAUX News popularity.
Americans are not well served by this rhetoric. The facts enable us to bring about peace. If the right has it's way we will be starting wars all over this world rather than living in a peaceful world with our international family. As Americans we need to stand up and say enough, already!
United States has applied a double
standard on the nuclear issue by supporting Israel, the fourth or fifth most powerful military state which engages in constant invasions of its neighbors and its never-ending illegal occupations and apartheid, While threatening Iran to abandon its enrichment activities, which is obviously for peaceful purposes and hasn't attacked a neighbor since the seventeenth century!
Turning on the lights shows us where the vermin are, and lately exposes the vermin in the Right's thinking. No wonder they like to keep their agenda hidden!
The American People are grateful to those who turn on the lights.
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