The NIE Iran Report and Alan Dershowitz

Throughout most of the Cold War any challenge to the proposition that "the Russians are coming and they're 30 feet tall" was met with derision and outrage by the Right. As a veteran of both the Senate Armed Services and Intelligence committees, I saw repeated rejection of any intelligence estimate that questioned that mantra or placed Soviet military capabilities or intent to use them in any realistic light. The most notorious, but not the only, instance was the appointment of a "Team B" to challenge the view of intelligence experts that the Soviet economy was a mess and its military not much better.

Of course, as we now know, the intelligence community, especially the CIA, was right and the Right was wrong.

Now comes Professor Dershowitz, in a rant that is not only hysterical but almost catatonic, presuming to know more about what is, or is not, going on in Iran than the sum total of sixteen U.S. intelligence agencies combining hundreds of thousands of the nation's most expert intelligence collectors and analysts who annually consume forty or fifty billion American tax dollars.

One did not hear much from Professor Dershowitz when those same intelligence agencies held to the position that Iran was on track to develop nuclear weapons, or at least when President Bush made that claim while suppressing any questions to the contrary. So, by collecting new intelligence and placing it under more intense scrutiny, and, one hears, by threatening to release this report if the White House continued to suppress it, these same intelligence experts suddenly become incompetents and "nincompoops" pursuing, according to Professor Dershowitz, some nefarious agenda of their own. It is never clear what that agenda is supposed to be.

Sounds like the Cold War all over again. Intelligence is good when it tells you what you want to hear. Otherwise, it is dangerously flawed if not sinister.

Experience and common sense tells me that these sixteen agencies with hundreds of thousands of employees pursuing a secret agenda doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

The real question is this: What is Professor Dershowitz's agenda here? Many bloggers automatically assumed is has to do with Israel. But Professor Dershowitz does not say so and, having known and respected him for many years, I presume if he is angry because the intelligence report undermines his broader purpose, he would have the courage to simply say so.
Until he does, one must shake one's head in sadness at a fine mind longing for the Cold War, or for a new villain to justify a wrong-headed empirial militancy in the Middle East, or who knows what.

What has undermined public support for the war in Iraq is the suspicion that other agendas, not least oil among them, were at work but not being disclosed by our leaders. It is a sure guarantee that the American people will turn against any foreign enterprise when they come to suspect that they are not being told the truth.

Perhaps now is the time for everyone to put their cards on the table.

Comments

[lastams]

And ALL the intelliegnce agencies operating under the direction of the Bush appointed intelligence Czar, conspired to skew the NIE.
Well we expected some interesting spin on this one but Jesus!
Once again, either Bush was totally in the dark about Iran or else he's been lying (again) to the Nation in a push for war.
Basically it has to be one or the other.
The positive point in all of this is despite pressure from the office of VP, the intelligence community stood their ground.
The fact that many in the military and intelligence community will not blindly follow our leader into a dictatorship bodes well for the country. We owe these people a debt of gratitude. Let's hope that they will continue to remain steadfast and recall that their oath is to the Constitution and not to George Bush.
In the end, wouldn't it be interesting if George declared martial law and nobody came?

[Purple Girl]

Just because you're a lawyer, you have insight into politics??? that's been proven to be a fallacy centuries ago.
lawyers manipulate the language so that the intent is obliverated.
frankly the legal jargon should be abolished. Our laws were meant to be read and understood by the people _because they were written to protect the people. Not to be posed in such a way that each word may be subject to debative rhetoric.
Mistake- having Lawyers interpete Laws and write laws. Debate cases/issues- not terminology.This is the major reason we have lost control of our Democracy- Lawyers.

[Peter Brown]

Senator Hart,
Thank you for stepping up and doing your part to help steer us back in the direction of an imperfect Constitutional Democracy rather than a fear-driven totalitarian state. All of us, from every station, and from both sides of the aisle, will have to follow your good example relentlessly if we are going to succeed in undoing the damage done to our nation and to get us back on track with the path laid down by our founders and defended for generations by those who were asked to serve in all of our names.

[mamacat]

Its not so hard to see why Sen. Hart was able to make a run for the Presidency - he's got a brain and he uses it. I guess having a girl friend is only OK if your a Republican.
Watched the Iranian ambassador to the UN on Charlie Rose last night. Iran may be a powerful nation, but as the ambassador said, they haven't attacked anyone in about 600 years.
Wow, the U.S. hasn't attacked anyone in 4 and 1/2 years, so what does that make us, less than 1% as peaceful as Iran?
Iran was an enemy of Saddam, not his ally.
Iran is an enemy of Al Qaeda, not an ally.
It was the U.S., under the Republicans, that gave Saddam and Osama arms and money in the 1980s, not Iran.
So why the hell does the right wing of American politics feel like they have to attack Iran?
How much should I care why the right wing wants to do anything they want to do, as long as they don't do it, and we vote them completely out of power in the next election.
Until they are a footnote in the history books, they will continue to be a threat to world peace, to the environment, to the world economy, and to the Constitution. God help us all if they are somehow able to keep power in the next election.

[Meteor]

The story of Iraq/Iran is the story of our CIC, Bush. That does not stand for Commander in Chief, it stands for Corrupt Incompetent Crazy.

Dershowitz is just another crazy on the sidelines.

'A source who met privately with Fallon around the time of his confirmation hearing and who insists on anonymity quoted Fallon as saying that an attack on Iran "will not happen on my watch". Asked how he could be sure, the source says, Fallon replied, "You know what choices I have. I'm a professional." Fallon said that he was not alone, according to the source, adding, "There are several of us trying to put the crazies back in the box." ' Juan Cole 12/05 /07

[Elliott32]

Thank you, Gary Hart. Please ask Senator Lieberman where he got his INTEL that Iran was developing nuclear weapons since he co-sponsored the Iran resolution in the Senate.

And when will the UN inspect Israel for nuclear weapons? Rumours on the Internet claim Israel has over 100 warheads on land and in subs.

Lastly, why haven't we investigated how nuclear weapons were first introduced in the region? Who started the nuclear arms race in the Middle East from the get go?
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/28/washington/29nixon.html

[Rog49Thomas]

For many of the Neocons, the greatest fear is fear itself. Under the 1% doctrine. if there is the slightest chance of evil, even if we don't know we are compelled to take swift and dramatic action. So there is a logic of sort to Alan's position.

Now, Senator Hart, I don't know about you but I am really suspicious of Republicans. They talk about national security but the results seem quite different. Our standing in the world has been tarnished. Our approval ratings are down. Our Army is almost broken. We're bogged down in a seemingly endless unwinnable war which is exhausting our national treasure. The fallout from bone headed abdication of regulatory responsibilities over subprime lending threatens our economy – the basis of our national security. If Osama had sketched out his desired results from 9/11, they would no doubt be remarkably similar. Co-incidence?

That's why I'm calling for intensive domestic interrogation to ferret out terrorists and their fellow travelers here on the all important home front.

Since we know (as Dick Cheney has advised) that Democrats are not to be trusted, we don't need to interrogate them. Besides they've shown about as much stomach for principles as Mitt Romney so even if they were our enemies there's little danger of effective action. But can we afford to take the chance that one or more Republicans aren't secret AlQaeda moles? Besides members of the Administration, some Republican members of Congress and presidential candidates' protestations of loyalty to America and firmness in the war on terror are just too pat to be believable. Some of these parties, and I think you know about whom I'm referring, may need more intensive techniques applied. Some may say that this would be a violation of their civil rights, but I'm willing to make that sacrifice to protect my family. I'm certain Professor Dershowitz would agree with me. How about you? And the rest of you out there?
Stand Up for America!

[mpgarr]

Dershowitz is a dyed in the wool zionist--that anything and everything Israel does is just fine--so it is no surprise he would not like the intelligence report to show that Iran is not as bad as conventional wisdom has held to to be.

Let him rant--his credibility is getting pretty thread bare.

[realpolitic]

Alan Dershowitz is not known for believing evidence. After all, he did help to get O.J. off the hook.

[taylorndncar]

gary, we had a president of the democrat party, who tried to strip the armed forces and the intelligence forces to bare-bone, for eight years of "peace". his aim was to "launch a push-button warfare" of the twentie-first century version of science-fiction. it really didn't work because you have to have someone on the ground to guide the "smart-bombs" into their targets. legacy leaves us stupid...!

[realpolitic]

The intelligence agancies refused to buckle to pressure this time around. Cheney and Bush, who continued to make bellicose statements in public, must have put enormous pressure on them. Regarding the WMD in Iraq, the intelligence community largely had it right. The aluminum tube argument that the administration used to bolster its case Saddam was pursuing nuclear weapons was supported by only one man. The real experts in the Energy Department knew the size and configuration of the tubes was not correct for use in atomic weapons.

Intelligence officials knew that Saddam operatives were not attempting to buy yellow-cake uranium in Niger, that Mohammad Atta did not meet with Iraqi intelligence agents in Prague, that the information provided by the 'source' Curveball could not be collaborated and that he was unrealible. (In fact, it was later found he gave the information to Italian authorities to get a green card.) It goes on and on, but because the agencies relented to administration pressure and removed all the caveats from the NIE on Iraq, the administration could have its war and then blame the 'faulty' intelligence.

This time the intelligence agencies stood their ground and still find themselves under assault by the far right. But it is great news: the new findings avoid another costly, unneccessary war and it removes a major campaign issue from Republicans who were lining up to out-demonize Iran.

[Wobbly]

16 intelligence agencies tell the Land of Israel and Zionists everywhere to relax, there is no existential threat...

Happy Hanukkah already! Light the candles, eat some latkes!

And some just can't handle the good news.

[bluesky49876]

Mr. Dershwitz should be listed as Israeli foreign agent and his comments should be viewed in the context of his work for Israel.

[BPCentrisAmerican]

I am Irish Catholic and some of my relatives supported the IRA in a religious war, which lasted nearly a century. They hated the British because they inserted themselves into a civil war on the side of the Protestants, while Catholics were treated like 2nd class citizens in their own country. American Irish Catholics were wrong to support the IRA and the British were wrong to take sides. After peace came to Ireland in the 90s, out of it emerged one of the most vibrant economies in Europe.

The parallels are sticking. Neo-conservative Jews and Zionist Christians who support Israel for their own selfish anti-Semitic agenda are just promoting hated and war, which is doing Israel no good. It is time for these neo-con and Christian Zionist extremist to get out of the way or join the fight, they merely cheerlead and let someone’s else’s son, or daughter, or father or mother do the bleeding and dieing for their own radical agenda. I saw an interview on CNN with the former ambasstor to Afghanistan, he claims that the Iranians provided intelligence to US commanders in fighting the Taliban, as well as humanitarian aid, they were also helpful in setting up the government that exist their today. The most striking thing he revealed is that the Iranians offered to put their own military under US command and made overtures to stop supporting terrorist networks in Palestine which could have led to a resolution of the Israeli, Palestinian issue

The ambassador filed his report with the Bush Administration and it was ignored, shortly after that George Bush gave his Axis of Evil. If this is true the implications are staggering. The Bush legacy will be one of death, failure and missed opportunities, if not criminal.

[MagisterLudi]

Fact: Iran is continuously running thousands of centrifuges and refining their capacity to run more and more of them.
Fact: Although Russia, Europeans and even Arabs offered Iran to procure enriched uranium for them, Iran refused. Why? They want to build their own capacity to produce enriched uranium. Even at expense of further isolation from the world community.

Now, one can consider what it is for.

One possibility: peaceful nuclear use.

Second possibility: capacity to eventually build nuclear weapons+ peaceful nuclear use.

The question is what you believe.

One does not to be hysterical to consider which one of these possibilities is more plausible.

One CAN be hysterically inclined to dismiss out of hand one of these possibilities because of either opposition to the current American regime or ideological sympathy Iran.

"Enemy of my enemy is my friend" is a faulty model for strategic thinking.