As investors price into the markets only two options for Europe, politicians feel the pressure to avoid a break-up of the monetary union as we know it and instead embark on the second scenario, full scale fiscal unity. European countries must share their budgets to share their burdens; fully unite or expect exits; go hard or go home.
A Banking Union would form part of this strategy but would it be blinkered to significant risks? Nevertheless, caution can cloud ones vision and maintaining holdings in good quality companies, rather than raising cash levels, is preferable. Progress is moving in the right direction and when confidence returns, so could market momentum.
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A European Banking Union -- An Essential But Flawed Strategy
Ever since the fall of Lehman Brothers and the start of the 'credit crisis', a call for greater control over the banks has been hotly debated. Challenged with rising regulatory costs and lower trading volumes, margins are being squeezed. Balance sheets are predicted to shrink by at least €1.5tn by the end of next year, even before taking account of an effect of a possible Greek exit.
A proposal that has won support in France is for a European Banking Union. This would involve a single regulator to oversee banks across Europe. Furthermore, it includes an EU-wide deposit guarantee scheme to protect savers in the event of a bank collapse. The European Central Bank has been hailed as the most appropriate candidate as supervisor, explicitly focusing the oversight to the euro area as opposed to the full European Union. This allays one of the UK's concerns, but reservations remain.
A Mockery of the Original Mandate?
Firstly, it may make a mockery of the ECB's original mandate. Originally tasked with the challenge of controlling inflation, critics maintain this new role would conflict and weaken their ability to do so. Any move to print money (increasing the amount in circulation, reducing its value meaning more is required to make purchases), could increase inflation instead of maintain price level stability.
A 'Blinkered' Approach?
Secondly, focusing on only part of the problem is not a full solution. A supervisory body overseeing the banks will focus on the largest financial institutions but miss the risks stored up lower down the food chain. The most recent 'crisis' was kicked off by Bankia, Spain's largest savings bank, suffering solvency issues. However, it was formed from seven already troubled smaller banks and therefore the risks they posed would have gone unnoticed. Oversight is certainly warranted, but is the horse wearing blinkers?
Fiscal Unity First
Finally, this is not a first step. Before such a move is considered, fiscal consolidation is required. To provide backing to support banks, greater control over national budgets is needed. Being so heavily affected by the economy in which they are located, unity must start from the top down. A 'two speed' Europe with pockets of growth versus widespread recession; a need for interest rate increases opposing desperation for further easing; and budget surpluses contrasting deficits highlighting the instability. European countries must share their budgets to share their burdens, fully unite or expect exits, go hard or go home.
But Beware of De-Risking
Caution can cloud ones vision and currently cash is not king. As prices rise faster than cash can appreciate in most savings accounts, the value of money is being eroded. Boosting cash levels is not prudent. Instead, maintaining a holding in good quality companies, with confidence they will grow in value over the long run, makes more sense. Progress is moving in the right direction and when confidence returns, so could market momentum.
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