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Why Concessions, Contagion & Collapse Are Still in the Cards in Europe

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From Greek election elation to Spanish rescue concerns, a clear road to recovery has remained elusive. Greece continues to gamble with its eurozone membership with the misguided belief that it can soften demands for austerity, without threatening its bailout. Instead, it is the lack of a sufficient firewall, rather than a commitment to Greece remaining within the eurozone, which stands in the way of an exit.

When banks are supported and other countries protected from a fallout, bailout payments to Greece and its membership within the eurozone could come to an end. Withdrawals from Greek banks could force the issue even earlier, as the desire to stay with the euro is offset with capital flows betting against it. For markets, it is clarity over the outlook going forward that is required for investor confidence and upward market momentum to return. We are not there yet, but time is running out.

Watch a 5-minute clip of how the Greek election will shape the outlook for Europe and the markets.

Greece Gambles With € Membership

New Democracy's win in the Greek elections was a victory of fear over anger. Outrage over the harsh austerity terms that have pushed the country into a 5th year of recession was outweighed by the fear of an exit from the euro. Protest against the tough spending cuts and tax increases was overshadowed by alarm at potential isolation and banking collapse, if these measures were to be rejected and bailout funds halted. Thus, New Democracy, perceived as the 'pro-euro' party and as such the investors' choice, won.

Crucially, however, although less willing to gamble their euro membership and expressing a commitment to staying in the eurozone, New Democracy also want to renegotiate the bailout terms. Dangerously, they believe it is possible to soften demands for austerity, without threatening their bailout. As a party seen as responsible for the crisis in the first place, their track record does not inspire confidence.

Cards Stacked Against Greece If Firewalls Strengthened

The Spanish rescue exacerbated the problem. Offering Spain a bailout without stringent terms was seen as a desperate move by European leaders, bending to pressure from a fear of further turmoil. Such a sign of perceived 'weakness' gave Greek leaders the confidence to believe their demands could likewise be met and the need for harsh austerity no longer mandatory.

This is misplaced. The possibility of a Greek exit is being discussed far more freely by European politicians. It is the lack of a sufficient firewall, rather than a continued resilient commitment to Greece remaining within the eurozone, which stands in the ways. This is especially the case while Greece's membership continues to threaten the existence of the eurozone as a whole. When there are sufficient rescue funds in place to support the banks and protect other countries from the fallout, bailout payments to Greece and their membership within the eurozone could come to an end.

Depositors Could Dictate Greek Fate

With depositors withdrawing over €500m each day from Greek banks, decisions over the country's future may be decided even sooner. European company exits have also gathered steam. Carrefour, Europe's biggest retailer, has cut their losses and sold out of Greece. As sources of support dry up, the country stands on far shakier grounds. Voters may have moved in one direction but depositors have moved in another. A desire to stay in the euro offset with capital flows betting against it. As Bill Gross, founder and co-CIO of Pimco, said on CNBC's Street Signs "Greece's fate will be decided not at the ballot box but at the ATM."

For markets, it is clarity over the outlook going forward that is required for investor confidence and upward market momentum to return. We are not there yet, but time is running out.

To note: Conviction for an exit from the euro has grown among The Investment Insight readers. From 40% of readers a month ago, to 72% on the latest poll, the belief that an exit is inevitable is building....